The Old Crem 3,187 Posted February 12 17 minutes ago, TQR said: In fact fuck it, @The Old Crem, in the style of your family favourites Morgan and Sunak, I bet you a grand that neither George Galloway nor Susan Hall are elected. Up for it? No because I genuinely think Galloway could win on the basis of a very low turnout, a low voter share and a very motivated voter base. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TQR 12,392 Posted February 12 14 minutes ago, The Old Crem said: No because I genuinely think Galloway could win on the basis of a very low turnout, a low voter share and a very motivated voter base. Exactly. You get a grand*. Great deal, right? *Subject to your excellent and “genuine” prediction being correct 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bibliogryphon 8,711 Posted February 13 8 hours ago, TQR said: Exactly. You get a grand*. Great deal, right? *Subject to your excellent and “genuine” prediction being correct You should go beyond money and have him bet something really valuable like his collection of Magic: The Gathering cards...... 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bibliogryphon 8,711 Posted February 13 In normal times this should be a straight forward Labour win. At the last election the respected Labour MP romped home with over 50% of the vote. The Conservative vote at the high water mark of 2019 was around 31%. The combined UKIP/Conservative vote has rarely exceeded 35%. The Lib Dems have polled below 10% in the last three elections. However at 2010 they can close to retaining the seat but were probably deprived by the boundary changes. Labour voters are not being encouraged to vote for the Labour candidate so it will depend what the various factions do. The anti-tory alliance will probably switch to the Lib Dems who are adept at fighting by-elections and will probably mop up the Green votes as the Green candidate is not campaigning either. Starmer loyalists will probably also go Lib Dems as it is the least embarrassing result in the circumstances. The Anti-Starmer faction may just stick with Ali to challenge Starmer's authority although some may switch to Galloway but he is such a divisive figure they may not be able to stomach it. For Starmer it would be a humiliation for this mess to let the Tories win or even worse Reform. Especially if there are Labour victories this week it will look like a massive own goal and disrupt the current election cycle narrative I am not a betting man (a good methodist) but I would cautiously suggest a Lid Dem victory but that might just be optimistic Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sod's Law 221 Posted February 13 'Snatch defeat from the jaws of victory' comes to mind here. This is shaping up to be easily the most interesting by-election since the last election (maybe even longer). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sod's Law 221 Posted February 13 1 hour ago, Bibliogryphon said: In normal times this should be a straight forward Labour win. At the last election the respected Labour MP romped home with over 50% of the vote. The Conservative vote at the high water mark of 2019 was around 31%. The combined UKIP/Conservative vote has rarely exceeded 35%. The Lib Dems have polled below 10% in the last three elections. However at 2010 they can close to retaining the seat but were probably deprived by the boundary changes. Labour voters are not being encouraged to vote for the Labour candidate so it will depend what the various factions do. The anti-tory alliance will probably switch to the Lib Dems who are adept at fighting by-elections and will probably mop up the Green votes as the Green candidate is not campaigning either. Starmer loyalists will probably also go Lib Dems as it is the least embarrassing result in the circumstances. The Anti-Starmer faction may just stick with Ali to challenge Starmer's authority although some may switch to Galloway but he is such a divisive figure they may not be able to stomach it. For Starmer it would be a humiliation for this mess to let the Tories win or even worse Reform. Especially if there are Labour victories this week it will look like a massive own goal and disrupt the current election cycle narrative I am not a betting man (a good methodist) but I would cautiously suggest a Lid Dem victory but that might just be optimistic Maybe, but this is really not the kind of seat which tends to go Lib Dem in elections (those tend to be more rural seats). Most likely in my opinion is that Ali is elected anyway. He's got a lot of publicity out of this by-election and the hearts and minds of the Muslim community. No way will it be Tories or Reform by any stretch of the imagination and Galloway is irrelevant to everyone these days. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bibliogryphon 8,711 Posted February 13 Owen Jones reported on Twitter that some Labour voters were contemplating voting for Simon Danczuk (Reform) who was the former Labour MP for the seat until he lost the whip for sexting underage girls. He suggests their primary motive is to prevent George Galloway taking the seat. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Old Crem 3,187 Posted February 13 31 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said: Owen Jones reported on Twitter that some Labour voters were contemplating voting for Simon Danczuk (Reform) who was the former Labour MP for the seat until he lost the whip for sexting underage girls. He suggests their primary motive is to prevent George Galloway taking the seat. Reform winning would be seen as a big story. Even with the circumstances it would still have a big impact on the politics for the next year. Both Tory and Labour would go even more culturally conservative. 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sod's Law 221 Posted February 13 For the love of God, please let's just have the bloody election and swipe the place clean of the lot of them... 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Commtech Sio Bibble 1,388 Posted February 13 Is anyone else sick of the BBC reporting on antisemitism within the Labour Party, it clearly isn't a widespread issue anymore (tbh I don't think it ever was, at least to the extent reported) and yet they are consistently bringing it up. They don't provide the same level of scrutiny towards racism in the Conservative Party, which is a lot more significant and widespread. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Old Crem 3,187 Posted February 13 The Jewish community are the only community where many liberals do not accept their self identifying of what is discriminatory or not 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Old Crem 3,187 Posted February 13 Sweepstake time. Which of the main parties will back a smartphone ban for the Under 16’s first. Could be either. Will be a very popular policy. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
msc 17,793 Posted February 13 Just now, The Old Crem said: Sweepstake time. Which of the main parties will back a smartphone ban for the Under 16’s first. Could be either. Will be a very popular policy. Source? A reminder you are not a parent. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Old Crem 3,187 Posted February 13 6 minutes ago, msc said: Source? A reminder you are not a parent. https://www.thesun.co.uk/fabulous/25918562/must-ban-smartphones-addicted-mum-sophie-winkleman/ It just feels like a policy both party leaders would be likely to back even with the big flaws (Enforcing it for a start. Plus a school ban on phones is harder without public phone boxes. The phone boxes near my old school (On a busy main road with chain shops and train station) have gone. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RoverAndOut 3,563 Posted February 14 Sweepstake time. What month of the year will Crem post the fewest inane political tweets in? Difficult to say but I'll go for August - assuming it's not just before or after an election. 6 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lilham 663 Posted February 14 Democrats just won another seat in the House: Santos's old seat in New York. They have been out-performing in special elections on swing seats. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TQR 12,392 Posted February 14 8 hours ago, RoverAndOut said: Sweepstake time. What month of the year will Crem post the fewest inane political tweets in? Difficult to say but I'll go for August - assuming it's not just before or after an election. When he’s stuck on mod preview. Won’t happen (though there’ve been times where it should’ve - remember “I don’t care how many [Palestinians] are killed”?) but we can but dream. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Old Crem 3,187 Posted February 14 9 hours ago, RoverAndOut said: Sweepstake time. What month of the year will Crem post the fewest inane political tweets in? Difficult to say but I'll go for August - assuming it's not just before or after an election. Correct. I’m in holiday for two weeks of that month and much of the rest I will be glued to the Olympics. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
En Passant 2,968 Posted February 14 10 hours ago, The Old Crem said: It just feels like...... Jesus H Christ on a bike. You just don't see it do you? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
YoungWillz 19,190 Posted February 15 Bit of a slip by Mayor Khan there on the Sky News. Talking about recent events, he was saying there is no place for that kind of language in his party and that he is "proud to be a member of a party which is both anti-racist and anti-Semitic, *pause* I mean tackling anti-Semitism". I'm sure it will be on the MuskX somewhere by now. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Toast 14,895 Posted February 15 Disapproving of israel's actions does not automatically make one anti-Semitic, and I suspect the lines are being blurred in some cases. 9 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Old Crem 3,187 Posted February 15 20 minutes ago, Toast said: Disapproving of israel's actions does not automatically make one anti-Semitic, and I suspect the lines are being blurred in some cases. Whatever the mainstream Jewish community sees anti - Semitic is anti semitic.Same with any other minority group 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
