That Portillo Moment

[msc 18,477]

Hmm, putting the recent poll into Electoral Calculus suggests the following "names" are at risk:

 

*"names" might be somewhat oxymoronic, but hey...

 

Edinburgh South - Ian Murray (a cert)

Orkney and Shetland – Alistair Carmichael (very very unlikely imo)

Gordon – Alex Salmond (unlikely, imo)

Edinburgh West – Michelle Thomson (done)

Moray – Angus Robertson

Dumfrieshire – David Mundell (unlikely if Tory vote goes up in Scotland)

East Dunbartonshire – John Nicolson

Barrow – John Woodcock (done)

Lancaster and Fleetwood  – Cat Smith (even more done)

Bury South – Ivan Lewis

Rochdale – Simon Danczuk (pan breed)

Wakefield – Mary Creagh (also very unpopular locally, apparently - a bad mix)

Leeds West – Rachel Reeves

Don Valley – Caroline Flint

Coventry North West – Geoffrey Robinson (might retire beforehand)

Birmingham Erdington – Jack Dromey

Wolverhampton North East – Emma Reynolds

West Brom East – Tom Watson

Gedling – Vernon Coaker (although this is 4th time Tories have targeted his seat confidently...)

Ashfield – Gloria de Piero

Bassetlaw – John Mann

Leicester West – Liz Kendall

Derby South – Margaret Beckett

Norwich South – Clive Lewis

Croydon Central – Gavin Barwell (possibly the one Labour gain of the night)

Carshalton – Tom Brake

Dagenham – Jon Cruddas

Exeter – Ben Badshaw

Brighton Pavilion – Caroline Lucas (another potential Labour gain if Green vote dies)

 

It's in a part of the country I think will be bad for Labour this time out, the seat is vulnerable, and he fits the Portillo role to a T, including murmured future leadership ambitions: I think this years "shock" defeat will be Tom Watson.

 

[Spade_Cooley 9,529]

Scenes if Lewis loses his seat and Corbyn stumbles on until the Labour conference, ensuring the next Labour leader is Rebecca Long fucking Bailey.

[msc 18,477]

At this point, next leader might be Yvette Cooper by default.

 

Lewis voted against the election because he's got his honeymoon due when its on. Think he'll have time for an extended honeymoon soon after...

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

However Clive Lewis is much more high profile and a potential leadership candidate. That might carry a few votes. Leicester voted to remain so Liz Kendall will probably be safe. Is Keith Vaz taking the opportunity to go quietly?

[msc 18,477]

Keith Vaz is standing, best I know.

 

 

Noooo, Shaun, don't change that avatar!!!

[Deathray 2,940]

To be honest I think the likelihood is a Tory win with a much lower majority than she expected.

[Sean 6,329]

19 hours ago, msc said:

Hmm, putting the recent poll into Electoral Calculus suggests the following "names" are at risk:

 

*"names" might be somewhat oxymoronic, but hey...

 

Edinburgh South - Ian Murray (a cert)

Orkney and Shetland – Alistair Carmichael (very very unlikely imo)

Gordon – Alex Salmond (unlikely, imo)

Edinburgh West – Michelle Thomson (done)

Moray – Angus Robertson

Dumfrieshire – David Mundell (unlikely if Tory vote goes up in Scotland)

East Dunbartonshire – John Nicolson

Barrow – John Woodcock (done)

Lancaster and Fleetwood  – Cat Smith (even more done)

Bury South – Ivan Lewis

Rochdale – Simon Danczuk (pan breed)

Wakefield – Mary Creagh (also very unpopular locally, apparently - a bad mix)

Leeds West – Rachel Reeves

Don Valley – Caroline Flint

Coventry North West – Geoffrey Robinson (might retire beforehand)

Birmingham Erdington – Jack Dromey

Wolverhampton North East – Emma Reynolds

West Brom East – Tom Watson

Gedling – Vernon Coaker (although this is 4th time Tories have targeted his seat confidently...)

Ashfield – Gloria de Piero

Bassetlaw – John Mann

Leicester West – Liz Kendall

Derby South – Margaret Beckett

Norwich South – Clive Lewis

Croydon Central – Gavin Barwell (possibly the one Labour gain of the night)

Carshalton – Tom Brake

Dagenham – Jon Cruddas

Exeter – Ben Badshaw

Brighton Pavilion – Caroline Lucas (another potential Labour gain if Green vote dies)

 

It's in a part of the country I think will be bad for Labour this time out, the seat is vulnerable, and he fits the Portillo role to a T, including murmured future leadership ambitions: I think this years "shock" defeat will be Tom Watson.

 

 

 

Ooh hadn`t thought of Tom Watson.That truly would be the Portillo moment of 2017.The winner of the most embarrassing loss will have to be Labour as many senior Tories such as Theresa May Philip Hammond Boris Johnson Andrea Leadsom  Liam Fox  David Davis Liz Truss Greg Clark Sajid Javid Priti Patel Michael Gove are in very safe seats.The only big Tory names in threat are David Mundell and Amber Rudd.Rudd should be ok though as she has grown her majority since taking the seat in 2010 by over 4000 votes.Plus the collapse of UKIP and problems with the Labour party should make it easier for her to win.Not so sure about Mundell keeping his seat though.

[Sean 6,329]

If you add the Tory and UKIP vote at last election together it only falls short of turning over Watson`s majority by a few hundred.Would only take a few hundred previous labour voters to switch to Tory or Lib dem for him to  be in quite serious danger if UKIP voters gravitate overwhelmingly to the Tories.

[msc 18,477]

Mundell will probably keep his seat on the general Tory/SNP swing, but I'd laugh if he lost, just on general principle.

 

Watson needs a 12.65% swing to unseat. However, it's unlikely to be a normal election, universal swing wont come into it.

[maryportfuncity 10,647]

On 19/04/2017 at 18:37, Shaun of the Dead said:

Does anyone think Corbyn has any chance of victory and becoming PM?

 

Absolutely none IMHO. More to the point I'd say he's going to lead Labour to a bigger annhilation that the one Michael Foot masterminded in 1983.

[Sean 6,329]

11 minutes ago, msc said:

Mundell will probably keep his seat on the general Tory/SNP swing, but I'd laugh if he lost, just on general principle.

 

Watson needs a 12.65% swing to unseat. However, it's unlikely to be a normal election, universal swing wont come into it.

 

Portillo was unseated by a 14.5 % swing so not impossible if the rumors of a landslide are indeed how the results turn out.I do wonder if Labour now just want a Tory landslide to ensure Corbyn doesn`t try to stay on.If he loses by a small margin it would be harder to get rid of him.

[Sean 6,329]

Just now, maryportfuncity said:

 

Absolutely none IMHO. More to the point I'd say he's going to lead Labour to a bigger annhilation that the one Michael Foot masterminded in 1983.

 

Ah yes the longest suicide note in history.I have heard speculation that if some polls are correct it could be Labour`s worst GE result since 1931.

[Sean 6,329]

In perspective that would be the biggest loss for Labour in John Morris  Dennis Skinner Roy Hattersley`s  and Arthur Scargill`s lifetime.

[maryportfuncity 10,647]

Just now, Shaun of the Dead said:

Portillo was unseated by a 14.5 % swing so not impossible if the rumors of a landslide are indeed how the results turn out.I do wonder if Labour now just want a Tory landslide to ensure Corbyn doesn`t try to stay on.If he loses by a small margin it would be harder to get rid of him.

 

 

If there's still going to be a recognisable Labour Party that's probably the shortest route to making it happen. Corbyn presiding over a calamity so severe that other (electable) types are near enough forced to take over and he's consigned to history with some fairly straight-faced blather about the good he did driving up party membership and the like.

[maryportfuncity 10,647]

Just now, Shaun of the Dead said:

In perspective that would be the biggest loss for Labour in John Morris  Dennis Skinner Roy Hattersley`s  and Arthur Scargill`s lifetime.

 

 

Aye, and we dead poolers know exactly how long those lifetimes have been. Post-war, basically

[Sean 6,329]

3 minutes ago, maryportfuncity said:

 

 

If there's still going to be a recognisable Labour Party that's probably the shortest route to making it happen. Corbyn presiding over a calamity so severe that other (electable) types are near enough forced to take over and he's consigned to history with some fairly straight-faced blather about the good he did driving up party membership and the like.

 

 

If he does become Prime Minister on the 9th June  it wouldn`t last long I don`t think.

[msc 18,477]

11 minutes ago, Shaun of the Dead said:

In perspective that would be the biggest loss for Labour in John Morris  Dennis Skinner Roy Hattersley`s  and Arthur Scargill`s lifetime.

 

Swings and roundabouts. The 1997 election was the Tories worst loss since the Great Reform Act!

 

 

15 minutes ago, Shaun of the Dead said:

Portillo was unseated by a 14.5 % swing so not impossible if the rumors of a landslide are indeed how the results turn out.I do wonder if Labour now just want a Tory landslide to ensure Corbyn doesn`t try to stay on.If he loses by a small margin it would be harder to get rid of him.

 

Probably. I suspect this is a good election to lose. And with Brexit (even if it goes well*, lots of folk'll be pissed off by stuff they thought they were getting which they wont), and talk of removing the pension triple lock, increasing income tax, etc etc...

 

Might not be the last landslide in the next decade!

 

*Obviously we all have a vested interest in it going well now its going to happen!

 

On 19/04/2017 at 18:37, Shaun of the Dead said:

Does anyone think Corbyn has any chance of victory and becoming PM?

 

Yes.

 

All it needs is for a sleeping virus to KO nearly everyone in the country on June 8th, and the only people with immunity are fans of Owen Jones...

 

Simple.

[Toast 16,140]

5 hours ago, msc said:

Noooo, Shaun, don't change that avatar!!!

 

Yes, please do!  But make it something that's pleasing to the eye.

[Sean 6,329]

1 minute ago, Toast said:

 

Yes, please do!  But make it something that's pleasing to the eye.

 

Any suggestions?

[Spade_Cooley 9,529]

Wonderful, I love POV porn.

[msc 18,477]

16 minutes ago, Toast said:

 

Yes, please do!  But make it something that's pleasing to the eye.

 

Back to Keith Vaz, I meant!

 

But oh look, he's now got the next PM instead...

[themaninblack 2,112]

My family will be very disappointed with the result come June 9th, but if Liz Kendall goes, they may raise a smile!

[Sean 6,329]

18 minutes ago, msc said:

 

Back to Keith Vaz, I meant!

 

But oh look, he's now got the next PM instead...

 

[Deathray 2,940]

4 hours ago, Shaun of the Dead said:

Ah yes the longest suicide note in history.I have heard speculation that if some polls are correct it could be Labour`s worst GE result since 1931.

 

Normally a died in the wool Labour voter, may go elsewhere this time. I think there's an awful lot of undecided Labour voters about.

[Toast 16,140]

46 minutes ago, Shaun of the Dead said:

48 minutes ago, Toast said:

 

Yes, please do!  But make it something that's pleasing to the eye.

 

Any suggestions?

 

How about Clare Grogan?  Everybody likes her.