By-Election Bingo

[themaninblack 2,112]

With the 1922 Committee announcing that a new Tory leader will be in place by September 2nd, that pushes forward the possibility of an early election to October 13th...

[msc 18,476]

I'm hoping for a snap election in October/November and a shock Labour win. Partly, you understand, as a lover of political history: George Canning holds the record for shortest reign by any PM, and he died.

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

The problem with the Remain campaign (with hindsight) was that they relied too much on what the experts say might happen if we leave. To which the Leave campaign could say "you don't KNOW that you are just saying these things to deny the poor working man his democratic say, what they should have done was focus on what the EU does in terms of farming, safety of goods, free trade, working rights, standardisation, the environment, regeneration of deprived areas, cultural exchange, opportunities to work in other member states, EHIC, collective actions on sanctions, justice, security etc. This would then have got some people perhaps off the Leave narrative that was fed through the Sun and Mail of them, coming here taking our jobs oh and next week the entire population of Turkey are going to move into the street next door to your Nan and they will launch a terrorist attack on your local Pizza Hut.

 

There is a reason I am not in politics.

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

The problem with the Remain campaign (with hindsight) was that they relied too much on what the experts say might happen if we leave. To which the Leave campaign could say "you don't KNOW that you are just saying these things to deny the poor working man his democratic say, what they should have done was focus on what the EU does in terms of farming, safety of goods, free trade, working rights, standardisation, the environment, regeneration of deprived areas, cultural exchange, opportunities to work in other member states, EHIC, collective actions on sanctions, justice, security etc. This would then have got some people perhaps off the Leave narrative that was fed through the Sun and Mail of them, coming here taking our jobs oh and next week the entire population of Turkey are going to move into the street next door to your Nan and they will launch a terrorist attack on your local Pizza Hut.

 

There is a reason I am not in politics.

 

And also a reason why you should be. FOR THE LOVE OF GOD WHY DIDN'T THEY GIVE US SOME ACTUAL FACTS???!!!

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

Rover don't take Kettering as any sort of barometer. MP is rabidly Eurosceptic there is a little triumverate in Kettering, Corby & Wellingborough. The result here was 61:39. In Corby 64:36.

 

While I wasn't aware of Kettering's persuasion (though I could have guessed) I guess my general point was that on a turnout of 76%, Kettering voted 60+% for Brexit. The feeling was that higher turnout would help remain, and yet 76% still produced a clear Leave victory, and Newcastle - thought to be pro-Remain - ended deadlocked. From then on, I had my fears that this was only going one way.

 

While I'm here (and since I don't want to post 3 times in a row) I may as well reflect a little on Labour's past 48 hours. I think two things are becoming fairly clear now: 1. That there will almost certainly be a Labour leadership contest started tomorrow after Labour MPs vote on the Motion of No Confidence in Jeremy Corbyn. 2. That Jeremy Corbyn will be a candidate in that leadership contest. The Labour party is clearly split here, some would say between the Parliamentary Labour Party and the grassroots, some would say between some of the PLP and some of the grassroots and others in the PLP and the grassroots. In the event that the Motion passes, it is not a formal part of any Labour Party mechanisms, i.e. it would simply suggest that there should be a leadership contest, but the only way for there to be one is to present an alternative candidate, secure the required number of sponsors (a formality in this eventuality) and off we go. I would imagine there will be conversations taking place among the so-called 'plotters' - basically the old Shadow Cabinet - about presenting a single candidate for maximum effectiveness. Who this candidate may be is unclear. Angela Eagle is seen as capable, and is from the left of the party so might be appeasing to the Corbynistas. She quit today, but was clearly highly distressed about the decision, and notably refused to rule out a leadership bid. Dan Jarvis seems to be everyone's ideal candidate, but he ruled out running last year due to his young children, and while he has a compelling narrative, it is not a narrative known to the wider electorate and would there be enough time for him to connect before a General Election. The third candidate I wouldn't rule out is Jess Phillips, who gave the most honest and plain spoken resignation letter today, where she acknowledged that she 'felt silly' writing a resignation letter as 'most people don't pay the position I had any mind at all', going on to establish that 'Saying stuff won't cut it' and apologising that 'Nobody deserves some of the crap you've had to put up with' (her words). The worry is, even in a situation where the 'others' unite behind a candidate, there is every indication that Corbyn would still win among the members. And what happens then? Corbyn is returned with a fresh mandate, the argument that the PLP put forward that he was unfit has been rejected by the people they represent, so where do they go from there? Those who resigned would be finished so long as Corbyn was leader, and we end up with a shadow cabinet full of lightweights, to put it plainly. Their only alternative would be to do a 'Gang of Four' and form a new party or defect to another party - the Lib Dems are the only option there. The difference here is, I could see upwards of 100 MPs emboldened by their unity and disillusioned with Corbyn being prepared for such a drastic action, but such a move would immediately hand power to Boris in any General Election. So here we are. The resignees fully expected, I assume, that their actions would force Corbyn to resign, thus solving the issue of his place on the ballot, and making it a straight fight between 2 or 3 of the people we've previously mentioned. Alternatively, there may have been an attempt to parachute someone like Alan Johnson in for the short term and look to replace him sometime during the next Parliament after a rigorous internal election. But with Jezza refusing to budge, his candidacy is virtually guaranteed in a new leadership contest, which he will therefore likely win. 2 polls in the last week have put Labour level, or ahead of the Tories, which Momentum are suggesting is signs that Corbyn is connecting, at a time when the Tories are fighting over Europe. The problems with this are that 1. The polls said quite clearly that Ed Miliband should presently be our Prime Minister and 2. By the time of a General Election, the Tories will be united, they will have a new leader, have agreed upon a platform for the Brexit negotiations to put to the British people, and people will be presented with a choice between Boris and Jeremy. At that point I only see one winner, and what then? We have a third Labour leadership contest in a little over 12 months? What a sorry mess...

[maryportfuncity 10,647]

 

Rover don't take Kettering as any sort of barometer. MP is rabidly Eurosceptic there is a little triumverate in Kettering, Corby & Wellingborough. The result here was 61:39. In Corby 64:36.

 

While I wasn't aware of Kettering's persuasion (though I could have guessed) I guess my general point was that on a turnout of 76%, Kettering voted 60+% for Brexit. The feeling was that higher turnout would help remain, and yet 76% still produced a clear Leave victory, and Newcastle - thought to be pro-Remain - ended deadlocked. From then on, I had my fears that this was only going one way.

 

While I'm here (and since I don't want to post 3 times in a row) I may as well reflect a little on Labour's past 48 hours. I think two things are becoming fairly clear now: 1. That there will almost certainly be a Labour leadership contest started tomorrow after Labour MPs vote on the Motion of No Confidence in Jeremy Corbyn. 2. That Jeremy Corbyn will be a candidate in that leadership contest. The Labour party is clearly split here, some would say between the Parliamentary Labour Party and the grassroots, some would say between some of the PLP and some of the grassroots and others in the PLP and the grassroots. In the event that the Motion passes, it is not a formal part of any Labour Party mechanisms, i.e. it would simply suggest that there should be a leadership contest, but the only way for there to be one is to present an alternative candidate, secure the required number of sponsors (a formality in this eventuality) and off we go. I would imagine there will be conversations taking place among the so-called 'plotters' - basically the old Shadow Cabinet - about presenting a single candidate for maximum effectiveness. Who this candidate may be is unclear. Angela Eagle is seen as capable, and is from the left of the party so might be appeasing to the Corbynistas. She quit today, but was clearly highly distressed about the decision, and notably refused to rule out a leadership bid. Dan Jarvis seems to be everyone's ideal candidate, but he ruled out running last year due to his young children, and while he has a compelling narrative, it is not a narrative known to the wider electorate and would there be enough time for him to connect before a General Election. The third candidate I wouldn't rule out is Jess Phillips, who gave the most honest and plain spoken resignation letter today, where she acknowledged that she 'felt silly' writing a resignation letter as 'most people don't pay the position I had any mind at all', going on to establish that 'Saying stuff won't cut it' and apologising that 'Nobody deserves some of the crap you've had to put up with' (her words). The worry is, even in a situation where the 'others' unite behind a candidate, there is every indication that Corbyn would still win among the members. And what happens then? Corbyn is returned with a fresh mandate, the argument that the PLP put forward that he was unfit has been rejected by the people they represent, so where do they go from there? Those who resigned would be finished so long as Corbyn was leader, and we end up with a shadow cabinet full of lightweights, to put it plainly. Their only alternative would be to do a 'Gang of Four' and form a new party or defect to another party - the Lib Dems are the only option there. The difference here is, I could see upwards of 100 MPs emboldened by their unity and disillusioned with Corbyn being prepared for such a drastic action, but such a move would immediately hand power to Boris in any General Election. So here we are. The resignees fully expected, I assume, that their actions would force Corbyn to resign, thus solving the issue of his place on the ballot, and making it a straight fight between 2 or 3 of the people we've previously mentioned. Alternatively, there may have been an attempt to parachute someone like Alan Johnson in for the short term and look to replace him sometime during the next Parliament after a rigorous internal election. But with Jezza refusing to budge, his candidacy is virtually guaranteed in a new leadership contest, which he will therefore likely win. 2 polls in the last week have put Labour level, or ahead of the Tories, which Momentum are suggesting is signs that Corbyn is connecting, at a time when the Tories are fighting over Europe. The problems with this are that 1. The polls said quite clearly that Ed Miliband should presently be our Prime Minister and 2. By the time of a General Election, the Tories will be united, they will have a new leader, have agreed upon a platform for the Brexit negotiations to put to the British people, and people will be presented with a choice between Boris and Jeremy. At that point I only see one winner, and what then? We have a third Labour leadership contest in a little over 12 months? What a sorry mess...

 

 

 

Awesome, you're wasted on the likes of us!

[maryportfuncity 10,647]

If Labour do keep Corbyn, are we gonna see a Lazarus-like comeback for the Lib Dems?

 

 

Lazarus-like, doubtful.

 

But surely a comeback on the basis that everyone else is in a serious mess and they sank unnaturally low after the last election (after which paid membership surged like fuck for a couple of weeks).

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

Stephen Crabb is said to be close to declaring his leadership bid. Good news for Cat & YW they could be cured by Christmas. ;-)

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

Awesome, you're wasted on the likes of us!

 

You're too kind. All I am is a political nerd with too much time on his hands. That said, I hope it all helps!

 

Stephen Crabb is said to be close to declaring his leadership bid. Good news for Cat & YW they could be cured by Christmas. ;-)

 

This Tory leadership election is turning into a rogue's gallery. Liam Fox has declared his intention to stand, a man whose frontbench career I thought finished when he got done for his lobbyist friend, and had resorted to being an angry Eurosceptic backbencher. JEREMY HUNT IS CONSIDERING STANDING!!! Never did I think Boris might be the best option... Leadsom again said she's considering her position, and then there's May. Osborne's ruled himself out, which was the only logical step. He may be making overtures to Boris now (ever the career politician) which could be bad news for Theresa. Now Crabbe's stepping in, supposedly in a possible coalition with Sajid Javid as his Chancellor (God help us). Thankfully Priti Patel's name has yet to be uttered, but she's the sort of person who'll say nothing and submit her nomination at 11.59 tomorrow morning, with that smug look on her face. Dr. Sarah Woolaston (the MP who switched from Leave to Remain in the final week) says that it's clear Boris and May are the two most fancied candidates and that everyone else should stop looking to self-interest, it's in the country's interest for a quick election between two candidates and everyone can then move on. There are signs that May's stock is rising, as even some Brexiteers don't like Boris. That said, you then get people like Nicholas Soames, who gave Boris no end of abuse during the referendum, and accused Michael Gove of treason for leaking the Queen's supposed EU views, now announcing that Boris and Gove are a political dream team and everyone should let bygones be bygones and get on board. So who knows what's going to happen. Guess we'll know Thursday morning.

 

On the Labour side, there are questions as to whether Corbyn gets onto the ballot without the support of MPs (unsurprisingly those opposed say their legal advice says he's need nominating, his aides say their legal advice says he's automatically on if he wants to be). You need 50 MPs to be nominated, and while the plan appears to be for a single unity opposing candidate, it is not quite so clear if everyone can agree on who that should be. Eagle is still tipped, but apparently there is support coalescing around Tom Watson, Corbyn's deputy, who frankly might be good at greasing the party machine for smooth running but inspires little more confidence as a future PM than Corbyn does. Eagle at least seems an honest broker and someone the party and the country could possibly see as a counterweight to the Tories. Meanwhile, Pat Glass, the newly-installed Shadow Education Secretary, has written to her local constituency Labour party to announce she will be standing down from Parliament at the next General Election, whenever that may be. Which inspires great confidence in Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition...

 

EDIT: Motion of No Confidence in Jeremy Corbyn passes. Of those who voted, there were 4 abstentions, 40 against the motion and just the 172 in favour. Watson and Eagle in the frame to challenge, but not clear which at this time. Still unclear whether Corbyn gets on the ballot automatically, but on those numbers he's still 10 short if every person who voted against the motion of no confidence backs his nomination.

[Deathray 2,940]

 

Awesome, you're wasted on the likes of us!

 

You're too kind. All I am is a political nerd with too much time on his hands. That said, I hope it all helps!

 

Stephen Crabb is said to be close to declaring his leadership bid. Good news for Cat & YW they could be cured by Christmas. ;-)

 

This Tory leadership election is turning into a rogue's gallery. Liam Fox has declared his intention to stand, a man whose frontbench career I thought finished when he got done for his lobbyist friend, and had resorted to being an angry Eurosceptic backbencher. JEREMY HUNT IS CONSIDERING STANDING!!! Never did I think Boris might be the best option... Leadsom again said she's considering her position, and then there's May. Osborne's ruled himself out, which was the only logical step. He may be making overtures to Boris now (ever the career politician) which could be bad news for Theresa. Now Crabbe's stepping in, supposedly in a possible coalition with Sajid Javid as his Chancellor (God help us). Thankfully Priti Patel's name has yet to be uttered, but she's the sort of person who'll say nothing and submit her nomination at 11.59 tomorrow morning, with that smug look on her face. Dr. Sarah Woolaston (the MP who switched from Leave to Remain in the final week) says that it's clear Boris and May are the two most fancied candidates and that everyone else should stop looking to self-interest, it's in the country's interest for a quick election between two candidates and everyone can then move on. There are signs that May's stock is rising, as even some Brexiteers don't like Boris. That said, you then get people like Nicholas Soames, who gave Boris no end of abuse during the referendum, and accused Michael Gove of treason for leaking the Queen's supposed EU views, now announcing that Boris and Gove are a political dream team and everyone should let bygones be bygones and get on board. So who knows what's going to happen. Guess we'll know Thursday morning.

 

On the Labour side, there are questions as to whether Corbyn gets onto the ballot without the support of MPs (unsurprisingly those opposed say their legal advice says he's need nominating, his aides say their legal advice says he's automatically on if he wants to be). You need 50 MPs to be nominated, and while the plan appears to be for a single unity opposing candidate, it is not quite so clear if everyone can agree on who that should be. Eagle is still tipped, but apparently there is support coalescing around Tom Watson, Corbyn's deputy, who frankly might be good at greasing the party machine for smooth running but inspires little more confidence as a future PM than Corbyn does. Eagle at least seems an honest broker and someone the party and the country could possibly see as a counterweight to the Tories. Meanwhile, Pat Glass, the newly-installed Shadow Education Secretary, has written to her local constituency Labour party to announce she will be standing down from Parliament at the next General Election, whenever that may be. Which inspires great confidence in Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition...

 

EDIT: Motion of No Confidence in Jeremy Corbyn passes. Of those who voted, there were 4 abstentions, 40 against the motion and just the 172 in favour. Watson and Eagle in the frame to challenge, but not clear which at this time. Still unclear whether Corbyn gets on the ballot automatically, but on those numbers he's still 10 short if every person who voted against the motion of no confidence backs his nomination.

 

 

I think you're slightly confused. A candidate needs 50 MPs to trigger a leadership contest. Other candidates in that contest need 35 MPs only. Whether Corbyn could must 35 MPs (I'd assume the 40 who voted against the motion of no confidence in him suggests he could) is another question. There is a very real probability, although slightly diminished, that the leadership election could be triggered and Corbyn could win it.

[maryportfuncity 10,647]

 

 

Awesome, you're wasted on the likes of us!

 

You're too kind. All I am is a political nerd with too much time on his hands. That said, I hope it all helps!

 

Stephen Crabb is said to be close to declaring his leadership bid. Good news for Cat & YW they could be cured by Christmas. ;-)

 

This Tory leadership election is turning into a rogue's gallery. Liam Fox has declared his intention to stand, a man whose frontbench career I thought finished when he got done for his lobbyist friend, and had resorted to being an angry Eurosceptic backbencher. JEREMY HUNT IS CONSIDERING STANDING!!! Never did I think Boris might be the best option... Leadsom again said she's considering her position, and then there's May. Osborne's ruled himself out, which was the only logical step. He may be making overtures to Boris now (ever the career politician) which could be bad news for Theresa. Now Crabbe's stepping in, supposedly in a possible coalition with Sajid Javid as his Chancellor (God help us). Thankfully Priti Patel's name has yet to be uttered, but she's the sort of person who'll say nothing and submit her nomination at 11.59 tomorrow morning, with that smug look on her face. Dr. Sarah Woolaston (the MP who switched from Leave to Remain in the final week) says that it's clear Boris and May are the two most fancied candidates and that everyone else should stop looking to self-interest, it's in the country's interest for a quick election between two candidates and everyone can then move on. There are signs that May's stock is rising, as even some Brexiteers don't like Boris. That said, you then get people like Nicholas Soames, who gave Boris no end of abuse during the referendum, and accused Michael Gove of treason for leaking the Queen's supposed EU views, now announcing that Boris and Gove are a political dream team and everyone should let bygones be bygones and get on board. So who knows what's going to happen. Guess we'll know Thursday morning.

 

On the Labour side, there are questions as to whether Corbyn gets onto the ballot without the support of MPs (unsurprisingly those opposed say their legal advice says he's need nominating, his aides say their legal advice says he's automatically on if he wants to be). You need 50 MPs to be nominated, and while the plan appears to be for a single unity opposing candidate, it is not quite so clear if everyone can agree on who that should be. Eagle is still tipped, but apparently there is support coalescing around Tom Watson, Corbyn's deputy, who frankly might be good at greasing the party machine for smooth running but inspires little more confidence as a future PM than Corbyn does. Eagle at least seems an honest broker and someone the party and the country could possibly see as a counterweight to the Tories. Meanwhile, Pat Glass, the newly-installed Shadow Education Secretary, has written to her local constituency Labour party to announce she will be standing down from Parliament at the next General Election, whenever that may be. Which inspires great confidence in Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition...

 

EDIT: Motion of No Confidence in Jeremy Corbyn passes. Of those who voted, there were 4 abstentions, 40 against the motion and just the 172 in favour. Watson and Eagle in the frame to challenge, but not clear which at this time. Still unclear whether Corbyn gets on the ballot automatically, but on those numbers he's still 10 short if every person who voted against the motion of no confidence backs his nomination.

 

 

I think you're slightly confused. A candidate needs 50 MPs to trigger a leadership contest. Other candidates in that contest need 35 MPs only. Whether Corbyn could must 35 MPs (I'd assume the 40 who voted against the motion of no confidence in him suggests he could) is another question. There is a very real probability, although slightly diminished, that the leadership election could be triggered and Corbyn could win it.

 

 

 

I tell you what would be funny...

 

If the Lib Dem rules demanded 50 MPs had to support each leadership candidate.

[Deathray 2,940]

 

 

 

Awesome, you're wasted on the likes of us!

 

You're too kind. All I am is a political nerd with too much time on his hands. That said, I hope it all helps!

 

Stephen Crabb is said to be close to declaring his leadership bid. Good news for Cat & YW they could be cured by Christmas. ;-)

 

This Tory leadership election is turning into a rogue's gallery. Liam Fox has declared his intention to stand, a man whose frontbench career I thought finished when he got done for his lobbyist friend, and had resorted to being an angry Eurosceptic backbencher. JEREMY HUNT IS CONSIDERING STANDING!!! Never did I think Boris might be the best option... Leadsom again said she's considering her position, and then there's May. Osborne's ruled himself out, which was the only logical step. He may be making overtures to Boris now (ever the career politician) which could be bad news for Theresa. Now Crabbe's stepping in, supposedly in a possible coalition with Sajid Javid as his Chancellor (God help us). Thankfully Priti Patel's name has yet to be uttered, but she's the sort of person who'll say nothing and submit her nomination at 11.59 tomorrow morning, with that smug look on her face. Dr. Sarah Woolaston (the MP who switched from Leave to Remain in the final week) says that it's clear Boris and May are the two most fancied candidates and that everyone else should stop looking to self-interest, it's in the country's interest for a quick election between two candidates and everyone can then move on. There are signs that May's stock is rising, as even some Brexiteers don't like Boris. That said, you then get people like Nicholas Soames, who gave Boris no end of abuse during the referendum, and accused Michael Gove of treason for leaking the Queen's supposed EU views, now announcing that Boris and Gove are a political dream team and everyone should let bygones be bygones and get on board. So who knows what's going to happen. Guess we'll know Thursday morning.

 

On the Labour side, there are questions as to whether Corbyn gets onto the ballot without the support of MPs (unsurprisingly those opposed say their legal advice says he's need nominating, his aides say their legal advice says he's automatically on if he wants to be). You need 50 MPs to be nominated, and while the plan appears to be for a single unity opposing candidate, it is not quite so clear if everyone can agree on who that should be. Eagle is still tipped, but apparently there is support coalescing around Tom Watson, Corbyn's deputy, who frankly might be good at greasing the party machine for smooth running but inspires little more confidence as a future PM than Corbyn does. Eagle at least seems an honest broker and someone the party and the country could possibly see as a counterweight to the Tories. Meanwhile, Pat Glass, the newly-installed Shadow Education Secretary, has written to her local constituency Labour party to announce she will be standing down from Parliament at the next General Election, whenever that may be. Which inspires great confidence in Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition...

 

EDIT: Motion of No Confidence in Jeremy Corbyn passes. Of those who voted, there were 4 abstentions, 40 against the motion and just the 172 in favour. Watson and Eagle in the frame to challenge, but not clear which at this time. Still unclear whether Corbyn gets on the ballot automatically, but on those numbers he's still 10 short if every person who voted against the motion of no confidence backs his nomination.

 

 

I think you're slightly confused. A candidate needs 50 MPs to trigger a leadership contest. Other candidates in that contest need 35 MPs only. Whether Corbyn could must 35 MPs (I'd assume the 40 who voted against the motion of no confidence in him suggests he could) is another question. There is a very real probability, although slightly diminished, that the leadership election could be triggered and Corbyn could win it.

 

 

 

I tell you what would be funny...

 

If the Lib Dem rules demanded 50 MPs had to support each leadership candidate.

 

 

At this rate the fact Labour's do is going to be equally hysterical after the next election.

 

Ignore my last post - apparently it's 50 if there is a leader. If he resigned he could get on the ballot with the 40 who voted for him in the vote of confidence.

[maryportfuncity 10,647]

 

 

 

 

Awesome, you're wasted on the likes of us!

 

You're too kind. All I am is a political nerd with too much time on his hands. That said, I hope it all helps!

 

Stephen Crabb is said to be close to declaring his leadership bid. Good news for Cat & YW they could be cured by Christmas. ;-)

 

This Tory leadership election is turning into a rogue's gallery. Liam Fox has declared his intention to stand, a man whose frontbench career I thought finished when he got done for his lobbyist friend, and had resorted to being an angry Eurosceptic backbencher. JEREMY HUNT IS CONSIDERING STANDING!!! Never did I think Boris might be the best option... Leadsom again said she's considering her position, and then there's May. Osborne's ruled himself out, which was the only logical step. He may be making overtures to Boris now (ever the career politician) which could be bad news for Theresa. Now Crabbe's stepping in, supposedly in a possible coalition with Sajid Javid as his Chancellor (God help us). Thankfully Priti Patel's name has yet to be uttered, but she's the sort of person who'll say nothing and submit her nomination at 11.59 tomorrow morning, with that smug look on her face. Dr. Sarah Woolaston (the MP who switched from Leave to Remain in the final week) says that it's clear Boris and May are the two most fancied candidates and that everyone else should stop looking to self-interest, it's in the country's interest for a quick election between two candidates and everyone can then move on. There are signs that May's stock is rising, as even some Brexiteers don't like Boris. That said, you then get people like Nicholas Soames, who gave Boris no end of abuse during the referendum, and accused Michael Gove of treason for leaking the Queen's supposed EU views, now announcing that Boris and Gove are a political dream team and everyone should let bygones be bygones and get on board. So who knows what's going to happen. Guess we'll know Thursday morning.

 

On the Labour side, there are questions as to whether Corbyn gets onto the ballot without the support of MPs (unsurprisingly those opposed say their legal advice says he's need nominating, his aides say their legal advice says he's automatically on if he wants to be). You need 50 MPs to be nominated, and while the plan appears to be for a single unity opposing candidate, it is not quite so clear if everyone can agree on who that should be. Eagle is still tipped, but apparently there is support coalescing around Tom Watson, Corbyn's deputy, who frankly might be good at greasing the party machine for smooth running but inspires little more confidence as a future PM than Corbyn does. Eagle at least seems an honest broker and someone the party and the country could possibly see as a counterweight to the Tories. Meanwhile, Pat Glass, the newly-installed Shadow Education Secretary, has written to her local constituency Labour party to announce she will be standing down from Parliament at the next General Election, whenever that may be. Which inspires great confidence in Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition...

 

EDIT: Motion of No Confidence in Jeremy Corbyn passes. Of those who voted, there were 4 abstentions, 40 against the motion and just the 172 in favour. Watson and Eagle in the frame to challenge, but not clear which at this time. Still unclear whether Corbyn gets on the ballot automatically, but on those numbers he's still 10 short if every person who voted against the motion of no confidence backs his nomination.

 

 

I think you're slightly confused. A candidate needs 50 MPs to trigger a leadership contest. Other candidates in that contest need 35 MPs only. Whether Corbyn could must 35 MPs (I'd assume the 40 who voted against the motion of no confidence in him suggests he could) is another question. There is a very real probability, although slightly diminished, that the leadership election could be triggered and Corbyn could win it.

 

 

 

I tell you what would be funny...

 

If the Lib Dem rules demanded 50 MPs had to support each leadership candidate.

 

 

At this rate the fact Labour's do is going to be equally hysterical after the next election.

 

Ignore my last post - apparently it's 50 if there is a leader. If he resigned he could get on the ballot with the 40 who voted for him in the vote of confidence.

 

 

 

Aye, not that I'm any great admirer of David Cameron or owt but...

 

That gag about the new MP leaving her mobile turned on because she might be in the shadow cabinet by the end of the day, classic!

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

 

 

 

 

Awesome, you're wasted on the likes of us!

 

You're too kind. All I am is a political nerd with too much time on his hands. That said, I hope it all helps!

 

Stephen Crabb is said to be close to declaring his leadership bid. Good news for Cat & YW they could be cured by Christmas. ;-)

 

This Tory leadership election is turning into a rogue's gallery. Liam Fox has declared his intention to stand, a man whose frontbench career I thought finished when he got done for his lobbyist friend, and had resorted to being an angry Eurosceptic backbencher. JEREMY HUNT IS CONSIDERING STANDING!!! Never did I think Boris might be the best option... Leadsom again said she's considering her position, and then there's May. Osborne's ruled himself out, which was the only logical step. He may be making overtures to Boris now (ever the career politician) which could be bad news for Theresa. Now Crabbe's stepping in, supposedly in a possible coalition with Sajid Javid as his Chancellor (God help us). Thankfully Priti Patel's name has yet to be uttered, but she's the sort of person who'll say nothing and submit her nomination at 11.59 tomorrow morning, with that smug look on her face. Dr. Sarah Woolaston (the MP who switched from Leave to Remain in the final week) says that it's clear Boris and May are the two most fancied candidates and that everyone else should stop looking to self-interest, it's in the country's interest for a quick election between two candidates and everyone can then move on. There are signs that May's stock is rising, as even some Brexiteers don't like Boris. That said, you then get people like Nicholas Soames, who gave Boris no end of abuse during the referendum, and accused Michael Gove of treason for leaking the Queen's supposed EU views, now announcing that Boris and Gove are a political dream team and everyone should let bygones be bygones and get on board. So who knows what's going to happen. Guess we'll know Thursday morning.

 

On the Labour side, there are questions as to whether Corbyn gets onto the ballot without the support of MPs (unsurprisingly those opposed say their legal advice says he's need nominating, his aides say their legal advice says he's automatically on if he wants to be). You need 50 MPs to be nominated, and while the plan appears to be for a single unity opposing candidate, it is not quite so clear if everyone can agree on who that should be. Eagle is still tipped, but apparently there is support coalescing around Tom Watson, Corbyn's deputy, who frankly might be good at greasing the party machine for smooth running but inspires little more confidence as a future PM than Corbyn does. Eagle at least seems an honest broker and someone the party and the country could possibly see as a counterweight to the Tories. Meanwhile, Pat Glass, the newly-installed Shadow Education Secretary, has written to her local constituency Labour party to announce she will be standing down from Parliament at the next General Election, whenever that may be. Which inspires great confidence in Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition...

 

EDIT: Motion of No Confidence in Jeremy Corbyn passes. Of those who voted, there were 4 abstentions, 40 against the motion and just the 172 in favour. Watson and Eagle in the frame to challenge, but not clear which at this time. Still unclear whether Corbyn gets on the ballot automatically, but on those numbers he's still 10 short if every person who voted against the motion of no confidence backs his nomination.

 

 

I think you're slightly confused. A candidate needs 50 MPs to trigger a leadership contest. Other candidates in that contest need 35 MPs only. Whether Corbyn could must 35 MPs (I'd assume the 40 who voted against the motion of no confidence in him suggests he could) is another question. There is a very real probability, although slightly diminished, that the leadership election could be triggered and Corbyn could win it.

 

 

 

I tell you what would be funny...

 

If the Lib Dem rules demanded 50 MPs had to support each leadership candidate.

 

 

At this rate the fact Labour's do is going to be equally hysterical after the next election.

 

Ignore my last post - apparently it's 50 if there is a leader. If he resigned he could get on the ballot with the 40 who voted for him in the vote of confidence.

 

 

A few points on the Labour motion. First, Labour has 229 MPs and only 216 registered a vote on the motion, so 13 didn't state a vote for any of the three options. That said, among those 40 who backed him was Liz McInnes, who had this to say afterwards:

 

 

'While I voted in support of Jeremy against today's motion, the result makes it clear that he has lost the confidence of a vast majority of our MPs and so we are unable to be as united and as effective as we need to be for the sake of the nation. With regret, I have therefore resigned from my shadow ministerial position with immediate effect.

 

So he hasn't even got the support of the 40 who voted down the motion. Three days before the nominations closed last year for the leadership contest, Corbyn had 17 nominees out of 35 needed, so if we say that's his core support, he's going to struggle to get on the ballot if he needs to. It appears the party is coalescing around Angela Eagle as the anti-Corbyn challenger, but they are still hopeful that the meetings with trades union leaders tomorrow will put the final nail in Corbyn's coffin and he will resign, allowing a proper leadership battle. Otherwise, Eagle will declare her challenge, the party will rally around her, and off we go with the leadership contest.

 

To throw further confusion into the mix, the general Tory feeling appears to be against an autumn General Election, suggesting that MPs are terrified of the prospect, with both Tory and Labour parties in disarray there is the prospect of UKIP gains in the north, Lib Dem gains in the south and a hung parliament to add further chaos to the situation. Boris has supposedly privately stated he has no intention of holding an election if elected, as he believes the mandate came from the Brexit vote. Personally I think he's talking bollocks.

[maryportfuncity 10,647]

And to add to the above post full marks for style to the SNP in Westminster who're angling to become the official opposition on the grounds that Labour only have useful control of 40 MPs. A bit of mischief for sure, but damn funny.

[Deathray 2,940]

Where did this consensus that there'll be a general election this year come from?

 

70% of parliament have to vote for. The Tories are unlikely to want to as they have a majority and 4 years left on their term.

[msc 18,476]

Where did this consensus that there'll be a general election this year come from?

 

70% of parliament have to vote for. The Tories are unlikely to want to as they have a majority and 4 years left on their term.

 

From the Tories, Labour and Lib Dems being on an "election footing" for most of the year. 2007 is a good example of it not always bearing fruit (and that worked well for the incumbent government!).

 

Also, as I've said before, 70% of parliament doesn't need to vote for it. That's under the Fixed Terms act. The Fixed Terms act itself can be repealed with a simple majority in the House of Commons, after which it becomes the perogative of the PM once more.

[themaninblack 2,112]

The timing of the Blarite coup is strange considering that there is a ticking timebomb that's just about to explode - the Chilcott inquiry.

 

If that verdict proves a damning to him and his acolytes as is suspected then their credibility will be utterly destroyed.

The only solution I can think of is that the Labour Party split into two discreet groupings with the tacit agreement of both sections fighting the GE in the areas of the UK where they can get votes. Left to the North/Scotland and former industrial heartlands with the centrists seeking votes in the south and more "aspirational" areas and position themselves as a more adequate opposition to the Tories than the Lib Dems should they make a comeback...

 

The two sides would then gather at Westminster as a loosely affiliated centre/centre-left "bloc"... Tricky but possibly the only practical opposition to the Tory government should they be returned with a majority.

[Deathray 2,940]

 

Where did this consensus that there'll be a general election this year come from?

 

70% of parliament have to vote for. The Tories are unlikely to want to as they have a majority and 4 years left on their term.

 

From the Tories, Labour and Lib Dems being on an "election footing" for most of the year. 2007 is a good example of it not always bearing fruit (and that worked well for the incumbent government!).

 

Also, as I've said before, 70% of parliament doesn't need to vote for it. That's under the Fixed Terms act. The Fixed Terms act itself can be repealed with a simple majority in the House of Commons, after which it becomes the perogative of the PM once more.

 

 

It won't be. There's a gazillion reasons it won't be, not least because the result of any general election could be a Tory-led coalition and they'd want the guarantees. Not that there's going to be an early general election anyway, the new leader will argue his mandate comes from the referendum and the fact that the public elect a party not a prime minister. PMs switching during a term is hardly new. The last time it didn't happen during a PM's entire term was Edward Heath in 1974 (Harold Wilson replaced by Jim Callaghan, Margaret Thatcher replaced John Major, Tony Blair replaced by Gordon Brown and now David Cameron replaced by Boris Johnson/Michael Gove/Theresa May).

 

Those who think there'll be another general election seem to have forgotten how British politics works. The last Prime Minister to call a general election upon assuming office from another PM during their term was Anthony Eden in 1951, but that general election was due anyway.

[msc 18,476]

Yes, but you didn't ask how likely an election was. You asked why people THINK there will be one.

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

The reason for the general speculation about an early election is not that it's being conducted by people who have no knowledge of British Parliamentary history, it is an acknowledgement of the situation we find ourselves in. Britain is in the grips of an existential crisis. We have a Conservative party who - far from settling its internal divisions - is presently more divided than ever. We have a Parliamentary Labour Party with no leader and a Parliamentary Labour Party Leader with no followers. The third largest party are the Scottish Nationalists, whose leader is currently trying to do all she can to avoid the decision the British people made, and whose long-term aim is to take Scotland out of the Union. And we have 8 Lib Dem MPs. An In-Out referendum on Britain's membership to the European Union was included in the 2015 Conservative Party manifesto. What was not included was a clause that said 'And once we balls it up and you vote out, we're going to take sole responsibility to decide among our 150,000 members who will be the Prime Minister to decide our negotiating position on the biggest constitutional matter in living memory. It is not unreasonable to suggest that the people get a say in the Parliament that takes these monumental decisions. 17 million people did not vote for Boris Johnson last Thursday, they voted for Britain to leave the EU. If Theresa May, or even Steven Crabbe manages to become leader, they weren't even on the winning side of the referendum. When Wilson handed over the Callaghan, the direction of the Labour barely changed; when Thatcher left, her Chancellor took over; Blair and Brown were (albeit testy) partners in crime. Boris Johnson was in direct opposition to the man he's replacing. Is it as simple as he gets the support of half his parliamentary party, and 76000 Tories nationwide and he has carte blanche to decide that we don't want to be in the single market, that immigration will be cut, etc., etc.? There will be a huge amount of pressure nationally for the so-called 'Brexit government' to be approved by the nation, to set out their vision for the talks and the future - and soon, not in 2020 when everything's already decided and it's too late to change anything. There will also be pressures from within the Tory party unless something significant changes for Labour, as there's a chance to ensure a new mandate, a new 5-year Parliament and potentially to cripple Labour, possibly terminally. If Labour lost 20 MPs to UKIP (and it could be more) then that would provide further support for any changes pursued by the Brexit team (although it could work to their disadvantage if the new government tries to water down some of the Leave conditions and UKIP don't like it). I am personally coming to the conclusion that the Tories will try to avoid an early election at all costs, but it is not unreasonable to suggest there may be one.

 

Meanwhile, Labour continue to tear themselves to pieces. It seems Angela Eagle will challenge Corbyn tomorrow. The Unions are backing him, but seemingly not unconditionally, which could be a deciding factor. He still has the support of many Constituency parties it seems, which could be curtains for some of the MPs concerned. The word 'deselection' is no longer seen as a threat but a certainty in some cases. If Corbyn wins, I can honestly say I have no idea what will happen. 172 MPs voted against him, 40 voted for him, and not all of those are in his corner. I'm not sure he can form a Shadow Cabinet post-leadership contest, unless he's prepared to appoint those who opposed him, and what happens if they refuse to serve? Tim Farron, the Lib Dem leader, has suggested that there needs to be a post-Brexit realignment of the progressive movement to avoid perpetual Tory rule. He has not ruled out a new party being formed with those Labour MPs who oppose Corbyn. In such an eventuality, there could potentially be a new party created with upwards of 100 MPs. If 115 Labour MPs could be convinced to leave (ordinarily a ludicrous suggestion, but if they believe their party has been hijacked by Corbyn and his supporters for the foreseeable future then not inconceivable), Labour would be left with less MPs than the 'rebel Labour' party, which could lead to a change in Opposition. I think Labour's grand hope is the opposite happens, the moderates in the party re-gain control (and can we just establish that Angela Eagle is hardly from the Blairite wing of the party, same can be said of many of the so-called 'plotters', while Andy Burnham, who may be considered a Blairite is one of the few prepared to stand with Corbyn) and, worse comes to the worst, Momentum's lot leave and form their own party. Right now, I'm not sure that this rift at the heart of the party can be healed without a schism. It is easy to paper over cracks when you're winning elections and staying in power, it becomes somewhat harder when you're not in power and both sides think it's the other's fault...

[maryportfuncity 10,647]

Awesome again, Rover and Out

 

And next week it's widely expected that that Chilcott report delivers a damning account of an unpopular political decision being taken by a Prime Minister flouting the usual constitutional rules.

 

In other news

 

I was at an HE careers fair last week where sixth formers badger universities about the life changing opportunities on offer. Flavour of the month subjects this year clearly include Law and Politics - partly because some of these youngsters are so appalled they want to get stuck in and do something about it.

 

Are we gonna get back to the sixties, mass protests against distant and useless politicos and the rest?

 

Frankly I'm not sure I give a shit about the politics but we'll get some great music out of it, eh?

[maryportfuncity 10,647]

So, is Boris' decision not to stand the political equivalent of the Bullingdon Club troughing in some eaterie they subsequently trash and then walking away not giving a shit because - deep down - they know they have money and they'll be okay?

 

What do our readers think?

[Spade_Cooley 9,536]

33/1 on a party that currently has no seats in parliament winning the most seats in the next election: good bet?

[msc 18,476]

So, is Boris' decision not to stand the political equivalent of the Bullingdon Club troughing in some eaterie they subsequently trash and then walking away not giving a shit because - deep down - they know they have money and they'll be okay?

 

What do our readers think?

 

Prime example of someone who comes up with a grand plan (back Brexit, Brexit loses, shores up popularity with party membership, Number 10) only to fail to have a back up plan when the voters had other thoughts.

 

Frankly, anyone who falls into a trap like Boris fell into Michael Gove's trap, shouldn't be anywhere near the top job.