Who Do You Think Will Be Elected President Of The United States In 2016?

[YoungWillz 21,033]

All you need to know about the Veep debate:

 

Kaine: Tax returns, tax returns.

 

Pence: Donald did not say that. Donald did not mean that.

 

No need to watch the "highlights", the above is the whole debate.

[Joey Russ 7,220]

All you need to know about the Veep debate:

 

Kaine: Tax returns, tax returns.

 

Pence: Donald did not say that. Donald did not mean that.

 

No need to watch the "highlights", the above is the whole debate.

So basically it's more bullshit. Zsa Zsa Gabor, I choose you!!!!

[Death Impends 7,963]

Didn't bother tuning in to the Veep debate, knowing it may as well be two Javier Perez de Cuellars duking it out.

 

Okay, I don't think anyone else can be quite that bland, but you get my point.

[CarolAnn 926]

 

I'm normally not a pedant, but one of my university majors was political science and this is bugging the hell out of me.

 

Is it possible to change the title of this thread to either "Who do you think will be elected President of the United States in 2016?" or "Who do you think will become President of the United States in 2017?"

 

Or should it be "whom?"

 

I thank you.

 

I think 'who' is correct, because the main verb (elect) is passive. You wouldn't say "Do you think me will be elected?", you would say "Do you think I will be elected?" etc

Or if you take out "do you think" and substitute "in your opinion", it's definitely "who".

 

'Whom' is greatly overused nowadays, often wrongly. It's a word that had almost completely fallen out of use, but has had a big revival. I'm not sure why.

 

 

I do believe you are on target. Sometimes "whom" just rears up and smacks me in the back of the head and says, "Hey! I'm alive!" and I get all confused.

[rockhopper penguin 2,265]

“I’m just saying, not all eccentric billionaires with self-destructive tendencies and simplistic notions of ‘good guys’ and ‘bad guys’ are the same.”

[Joey Russ 7,220]

Clinton will be asked the first question of the night. I think a very important question for this debate is this: Will he bring up the rape claim on Bill Clinton?

[charon 4,943]

Ohhh and then some. A 12 year old.

 

 

Nice and feisty beginning to the debate.

[Joey Russ 7,220]

Basically a repeat of the first debate

[Joey Russ 7,220]

Hey look. The debate is over. They are still both shit

[YoungWillz 21,033]

It's horrific.

 

Trump: Everything's a disaster. I will fix it. I'm proud not to have paid taxes to fix things. I will cut taxes for people like me and pay off the deficit with the resulting cash bonanza.

 

Clinton: *blinks* I know how things work. I will make things better. I will heal the country but call a ton of Americans irredeemable. I've seen how presidents work and I will be the same kind of President that has failed America for years.

 

Is the Libertarian standing in every state? May we be saved from either?

[charon 4,943]

If the polls close, would Bill being shuffled off this mortal coil help her?

 

She might

[CarolAnn 926]

I was listening to the train wreck as I was driving down Interstate 40 in California and Arizona. The only reason I didn't drive off into an arroyo was because I had my dachshund with me.

[The Mad Hatter 1,092]

It's horrific.

 

Trump: Everything's a disaster. I will fix it. I'm proud not to have paid taxes to fix things. I will cut taxes for people like me and pay off the deficit with the resulting cash bonanza.

 

Clinton: *blinks* I know how things work. I will make things better. I will heal the country but call a ton of Americans irredeemable. I've seen how presidents work and I will be the same kind of President that has failed America for years.

 

Is the Libertarian standing in every state? May we be saved from either?

nope

[Toast 16,131]

I was listening to the train wreck as I was driving down Interstate 40 in California and Arizona. The only reason I didn't drive off into an arroyo was because I had my dachshund with me.

 

Photo of your dachshund, please

[charon 4,943]

 

[rockhopper penguin 2,265]

It was a clever ploy by Clinton. A KO last night and Trump could have been forced out, which is the last thing she wants.

[Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,218]

It was a clever ploy by Clinton. A KO last night and Trump could have been forced out, which is the last thing she wants.

I doubt if she really figured that one out.

Truly appalling, how the fuck can a country end up with two of the biggest cunts to vote for?

Conspiracy theory!!!

[rockhopper penguin 2,265]

 

It was a clever ploy by Clinton. A KO last night and Trump could have been forced out, which is the last thing she wants.

I doubt if she really figured that one out.

Truly appalling, how the f**k can a country end up with two of the biggest cunts to vote for?

Conspiracy theory!!!

 

Run by whom? The Russians?Lizard people?

[charon 4,943]

 

 

It was a clever ploy by Clinton. A KO last night and Trump could have been forced out, which is the last thing she wants.

 

I doubt if she really figured that one out.

Truly appalling, how the f**k can a country end up with two of the biggest cunts to vote for?

Conspiracy theory!!!

Run by whom? The Russians?Lizard people?

Well the hoor was trying like fuck to say the Russians back the bold DJ

[Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,218]

 

 

It was a clever ploy by Clinton. A KO last night and Trump could have been forced out, which is the last thing she wants.

I doubt if she really figured that one out.

Truly appalling, how the f**k can a country end up with two of the biggest cunts to vote for?

Conspiracy theory!!!

 

Run by whom? The Russians?Lizard people?

 

Possibly the ghost of Jimmy Savile.

[Joey Russ 7,220]

Wonder if this is Charlie Sheens official announcement for the presidential race?: https://twitter.com/charliesheen/status/786014294047621120

[RadGuy 1,614]

So, after "Grab Them By The Pussy" and a poor debate performance, Donald Trump's support has dropped.

Hillary Clinton's support hasn't risen as much as it could have, though, due to Wikileaks releasing a bunch of emails and speech transcripts of her saying a bunch of corrupt shit.

 

This leads us to the question: How are the 3rd party candidates doing?

They're doing great!

 

A recent New Mexico poll has Clinton at 35%, Trump at 31% ... and Gary Johnson at 24%!

This means it is possible for there to be an electoral college deadlock if the race tightens. If Trump gets all Romney states plus Florida, Nevada, Iowa, Ohio and Maine's 2nd District, and Johnson wins New Mexico, nobody will get 270 electoral votes. That means it will be up to Congress to decide. What party is the majority? Republicans. Who do establishment Republicans hate? Trump. Who could they possibly vote for? Johnson. YES! In this situation, it is very likely Gary Johnson will be victorious. However, there's a small chance this situation will happen anyway.

 

Let's look at Utah.

Utah is notorious for despising both Clinton and Trump. In the primaries, Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders each got about 80% of the vote.

The state has always been EXTREMELY Republican. McCain got 62% of the vote in 2008, Romney 73% in 2012.

However, some polls have shown a dead heat between Trump and Clinton, with 3rd party candidates on the rise.

One poll had Trump at 39%, Clinton 25%, Johnson 13%, Evan McMullin at 12%.

A poll released last night had Trump and Clinton tied at 26%, with Evan McMullin at 22%. This is a statistical 3-way tie!

Who the fuck is McMullin? An independent conservative running as a protest against Trump.

Yes, this random fucker could actually win Utah!

 

That same Utah poll from last night had Johnson at 14%. Together, that puts them at 36%.

If Gary Johnson decides to tell his Utah supporters to vote for McMullin, and McMullin decides to tell his New Mexico supporters to vote for Johnson... we could get 4 different candidates winning electoral votes - which would be a historic event.

 

Unfortunately, while Johnson is polling at 10% nationally, McMullin is only at about 2%.

Jill Stein is also at 2% nationally, however, unlike McMullin, she doesn't seem to have a chance to win any states, or even counties. She could do relatively well in Vermont - home of Bernie Sanders, and also Massachusetts (her own home state), Minnesota, Oregon, Hawaii, etc. Basically all the far-left hippie states.

 

What's the matter with Iowa?

While most swing states - Florida, Ohio, North Carolina - have been swinging back and forth from Clinton and Trump this season, almost every Iowa poll shows Trump in the lead.

This is quite surprising, as Iowa is usually less "swing-y" than the other three I mentioned.

The very small minority population probably has something to do with this.

 

Georgia on my mind.

Could Georgia finally turn blue this year? The state is 30% black. This doesn't really mean anything - Mississippi and Louisiana are both 35% black, and way more conservative.

While Virginia and North Carolina are only 20% black, but have been trending Democratic (Clinton has a lead of 10 points or more in most Virginia polls)

So, basically, the percentage of black people doesn't dictate how Southern states vote, but rather the liberalism of the white people.

Virginia, North Carolina, and increasingly South Carolina and Georgia, have been getting a lot of transplants from the liberal Northeast and Midwest.

This is contributing to the states trending Democratic.

If the race doesn't tighten, I think Hillary Clinton could win all of the Atlantic Southern states (Gulf states don't count).

 

The Upper South is doing the opposite.

While states like Arkansas used to be swing states, and West Virginia used to be extremely Democratic, they have since done a 180 swing towards the Republicans.

Why is that?

Well, let's take a look at the 1992 and 1996 electoral maps, and the history of Republican and Democratic policies.

Back in the '90s, and before that, people voted mainly based on economic policies.

The poor Southern states like West Virginia and Arkansas heavily voted for the social-democratic Bill Clinton and his party.

The rich Southern states like Virginia and North Carolina heavily voted for the capitalist George H. W. Bush, and then Bob Dole, and their parties.

However, beginning in the 2000s, social issues have become increasingly relevant.

So rednecks in the poor states are saying "Them Democrats ain't true Christians, they's demons from hell! Supporting gay marriage and all that unholy shit."

While the snooty upper-class suburbanites in the richer states are saying "Well, gosh, golly, I think the Republicans are taking all this social conservatism stuff too far."

So, people in many states, especially Southern states, have started looking at social issues WAY more than they should be when deciding who to vote for.

 

Um, wow, I wrote a lot.

Hopefully at least one person will find this interesting.

[Joey Russ 7,220]

So, after "Grab Them By The Pussy" and a poor debate performance, Donald Trump's support has dropped.

Hillary Clinton's support hasn't risen as much as it could have, though, due to Wikileaks releasing a bunch of emails and speech transcripts of her saying a bunch of corrupt shit.

 

This leads us to the question: How are the 3rd party candidates doing?

They're doing great!

 

A recent New Mexico poll has Clinton at 35%, Trump at 31% ... and Gary Johnson at 24%!

This means it is possible for there to be an electoral college deadlock if the race tightens. If Trump gets all Romney states plus Florida, Nevada, Iowa, Ohio and Maine's 2nd District, and Johnson wins New Mexico, nobody will get 270 electoral votes. That means it will be up to Congress to decide. What party is the majority? Republicans. Who do establishment Republicans hate? Trump. Who could they possibly vote for? Johnson. YES! In this situation, it is very likely Gary Johnson will be victorious. However, there's a small chance this situation will happen anyway.

 

Let's look at Utah.

Utah is notorious for despising both Clinton and Trump. In the primaries, Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders each got about 80% of the vote.

The state has always been EXTREMELY Republican. McCain got 62% of the vote in 2008, Romney 73% in 2012.

However, some polls have shown a dead heat between Trump and Clinton, with 3rd party candidates on the rise.

One poll had Trump at 39%, Clinton 25%, Johnson 13%, Evan McMullin at 12%.

A poll released last night had Trump and Clinton tied at 26%, with Evan McMullin at 22%. This is a statistical 3-way tie!

Who the f**k is McMullin? An independent conservative running as a protest against Trump.

Yes, this random f***er could actually win Utah!

 

That same Utah poll from last night had Johnson at 14%. Together, that puts them at 36%.

If Gary Johnson decides to tell his Utah supporters to vote for McMullin, and McMullin decides to tell his New Mexico supporters to vote for Johnson... we could get 4 different candidates winning electoral votes - which would be a historic event.

 

Unfortunately, while Johnson is polling at 10% nationally, McMullin is only at about 2%.

Jill Stein is also at 2% nationally, however, unlike McMullin, she doesn't seem to have a chance to win any states, or even counties. She could do relatively well in Vermont - home of Bernie Sanders, and also Massachusetts (her own home state), Minnesota, Oregon, Hawaii, etc. Basically all the far-left hippie states.

 

What's the matter with Iowa?

While most swing states - Florida, Ohio, North Carolina - have been swinging back and forth from Clinton and Trump this season, almost every Iowa poll shows Trump in the lead.

This is quite surprising, as Iowa is usually less "swing-y" than the other three I mentioned.

The very small minority population probably has something to do with this.

 

Georgia on my mind.

Could Georgia finally turn blue this year? The state is 30% black. This doesn't really mean anything - Mississippi and Louisiana are both 35% black, and way more conservative.

While Virginia and North Carolina are only 20% black, but have been trending Democratic (Clinton has a lead of 10 points or more in most Virginia polls)

So, basically, the percentage of black people doesn't dictate how Southern states vote, but rather the liberalism of the white people.

Virginia, North Carolina, and increasingly South Carolina and Georgia, have been getting a lot of transplants from the liberal Northeast and Midwest.

This is contributing to the states trending Democratic.

If the race doesn't tighten, I think Hillary Clinton could win all of the Atlantic Southern states (Gulf states don't count).

 

The Upper South is doing the opposite.

While states like Arkansas used to be swing states, and West Virginia used to be extremely Democratic, they have since done a 180 swing towards the Republicans.

Why is that?

Well, let's take a look at the 1992 and 1996 electoral maps, and the history of Republican and Democratic policies.

Back in the '90s, and before that, people voted mainly based on economic policies.

The poor Southern states like West Virginia and Arkansas heavily voted for the social-democratic Bill Clinton and his party.

The rich Southern states like Virginia and North Carolina heavily voted for the capitalist George H. W. Bush, and then Bob Dole, and their parties.

However, beginning in the 2000s, social issues have become increasingly relevant.

So rednecks in the poor states are saying "Them Democrats ain't true Christians, they's demons from hell! Supporting gay marriage and all that unholy shit."

While the snooty upper-class suburbanites in the richer states are saying "Well, gosh, golly, I think the Republicans are taking all this social conservatism stuff too far."

So, people in many states, especially Southern states, have started looking at social issues WAY more than they should be when deciding who to vote for.

 

Um, wow, I wrote a lot.

Hopefully at least one person will find this interesting.

You did good

[msc 18,438]

Well the polls have gone from tied or narrow 1-2 point leads to 5-7 point leads for Clinton (and that 14 point one the other day of course) - four weeks out from an election, I'd say that's a fair raise.

 

Gary Johnson is fucked, from what I can see, by that Utah poll, if the Utah Republicans decide to move behind McMullin. Libertarians tend to be overpromoted by polls - 2012 saw them with 6% in the October polls, and 1% in the actual election, and now places where they actually had a chance (Utah due to the local issues) have found a better candidate. New Mexico will go Democrat, and even if it isn't, if the Republican party need to defend the likes of Utah and Kansas as suggested, this isn't a close election.

 

Georgia might turn Democrat but I'm not convinced. It feels a bit like Pennsylvania for the Republicans - the demographics appeal to them, but the state's out of reach. North Carolina looks a good bet for Clinton of all the Republican states (I think Obama won it once too). I also believe South Carolina is going to be one of the first polls to shut - obviously Republican, and if its close (or worse) for them, they're in lots of trouble.

 

I thought Trump was going to do the whole Brexit thing, but he's doing a great job of trying to piss off every single swing voter. Just wait for the leaked footage of Donald Trump swearing at a kitten with a broken leg, it'll be game over then...

[msc 18,438]

Wow - "fucked" got past the swear filter. Fucking amazing.