Derby Dead Pool 2017

[themaninblack 2,112]

Latest update...

[YoungWillz 21,050]

Top 100? *faints*

[Joey Russ 7,228]

So Advent Avalanche is back in the top 20 again. I thought that team would never get back once it fell out, so that was a bit of a shock tbh. (I thought some certs that weren't on that team would be dead by now, but alas, many of them are still alive...)

[YoungWillz 21,050]

Round Up #20 (Trump Is A Person Of Colour - Orange! Special)

 

Aundrea Bannatyne: https://forums.deathlist.net/topic/8709-only-famous-for-being-ill-and-dying/?do=findComment&comment=320055

Awaiting Obit.

 

David Somerset, 11th Duke of Beaufort: https://forums.deathlist.net/topic/8456-aristocrats/?do=findComment&comment=320074

Daily Mail Obit: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4797480/Duke-owner-52-000-acre-Badminton-Estate-dies.html

 

Susanne Cameron-Blackie: https://forums.deathlist.net/topic/9034-the-dead-of-2017/?do=findComment&comment=320221

Awaiting Obit.

 

Bruce Forsyth: https://forums.deathlist.net/topic/379-37-bruce-forsyth/?do=findComment&comment=320242

BBC Obit: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-40978576

 

Sonny Burgess: https://forums.deathlist.net/topic/2389-dead-pop-stars/?do=findComment&comment=320562

Mirror Obit: http://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/rockabilly-icon-sonny-burgess-dead-11018277

 

Colin Meads: https://forums.deathlist.net/topic/4559-andy-ripley-and-other-boofheads/?do=findComment&comment=320616 (Telegraph Obit In Link)

 

Jerry Lewis: https://forums.deathlist.net/topic/943-33-jerry-lewis/?do=findComment&comment=320741 (BBC Obit In Link)

 

Karl Otto Gotz: https://forums.deathlist.net/topic/6496-art-for-deaths-sake/?do=findComment&comment=320990

Awaiting Obit.

 

Brian Aldiss: https://forums.deathlist.net/topic/857-authors-last-a-long-time-but/?do=findComment&comment=320991

BBC Obit: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-41003085

 

Bea Wain: https://forums.deathlist.net/topic/8294-the-100-club/?do=findComment&comment=321001

Awaiting Obit.

 

Margot Hielscher: https://forums.deathlist.net/topic/7873-foreign-personalities-from-stage-screen-politics-and-life/?do=findComment&comment=321116

Awaiting Obit.

 

Terri Roberts: https://forums.deathlist.net/topic/857-authors-last-a-long-time-but/?do=findComment&comment=321272

Awaiting Obit.

[Spade_Cooley 9,528]

This nurse is all of us deadpoolers:

 

 

[Death Impends 7,977]

More than ever, it's Golden Slumbers's race to lose...

[gcreptile 10,972]

Indeed, congratulations?

[Bert Trautmann 58]

It's getting harder to play down my chances...

 

But with no Meads, no Stefan Karl and no Rayya Elias I could still be overhauled. 

 

If I don't win it this year with Golmard and Forsyth going my way, I probably never will. An intriguing run-in ahead...

[msc 18,476]

Good luck to you Bert. DI can win it in 2019 after I win 2018 next year instead...

[gcreptile 10,972]

I once compared DDT to Steve Davis, and Spade to Stephen Hendry. DI might turn out to become Jimmy White.

[msc 18,476]

4 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

I once compared DDT to Steve Davis, and Spade to Stephen Hendry. DI might turn out to become Jimmy White.

 

I don't know snooker, but if I said Djokovic to Nadal/Federer, or, uhm... can't think of a football equivalent off the top of my head to presumably keep the analogy accurate.

[gcreptile 10,972]

4 minutes ago, msc said:

 

I don't know snooker, but if I said Djokovic to Nadal/Federer, or, uhm... can't think of a football equivalent off the top of my head to presumably keep the analogy accurate.

Tortured analogy, part 254: DDT is Italy, Spade is Brazil, DI is The Netherlands?

And Sadhana Shivdasani's christmas death is like the referee in the Argentina - Netherlands final in 1978.

Or does that make Spade Argentina?

[msc 18,476]

Bit ironic DDT being Italy there, no?

 

 

[Joey Russ 7,228]

I think if Golden Slumbers get both King Michael and Patrick Cryne, that'll pretty much seal the win for him even if all three of Meads, Elias, and Stefansson dies...

[Bert Trautmann 58]

1 hour ago, Joey Russ said:

I think if Golden Slumbers get both King Michael and Patrick Cryne, that'll pretty much seal the win for him even if all three of Meads, Elias, and Stefansson dies...

 

I was thinking about this exact scenario as it would put me just one point above DQSP. 

 

I still don't have much room for error even after nabbing Golmard and Forsyth. 

[Death Impends 7,977]

Looking at the above comparisons, one of the downsides to not being particularly knowledgeable on any sport is I can't come up with any analogies like these...

 

So we're down to 15 surviving names amidst the top 3. Here's how I stack them from best to worst chances of dying:

1. Rayya Elias (Spade) - In "timer's on" mode for a few months now, a status only exacerbated when she bowed out of that one performance.
2. Leah Bracknell (Bert/Spade/Cow) - Groundbreaking therapy didn't work and has been surviving solely on alternative malarkey since March.
3. Gord Downie (Bert/Spade/Cow) - Statistically should have died months ago, though was still looking well at his most recent outing last month. Still probably a goner but, along with Bracknell, doesn't matter at this point for the title race.
4. Colin Meads (Spade) - Looked well at the statue unveiling a couple months back, despite the combination of age, pancreatic, and drinking bleach. Has still admitted his health has been declining though, I think the statue event was a likely last hurrah.
5. Patrick Cryne (Bert) - A few months back, I would've have thought Cryne was the most in danger of the three names most important for Bert (Cryne, Golmard, Forsyth). Now he's the last one of those still breathing! Someone on Twitter said he was looking well at a public event a month ago, but statistically, with his cancer in the "terminal, unresponsive to chemo" state since March, most likely gone by the year's end.
6. King Michael (Bert/Cow) - In the same "fragile but stable" state for some time. Decent bet of a fall-time death but has lingered to the point where he could feasibly outlast the year.
7. Tony Booth (Cow) - Still frail, still with the wonky ticker and lungs and no short-term memory. His wife's latest blog, from four days ago, reveals that being Tony's caretaker is so strenuous that he's now on a two week stint of respite care.
8. Clive James (Cow) - In his 5th year as a Drop 40 pick now but the abrupt halt to his Guardian column suggests dents in his armor... that, and Booth's continued fragility, are more or less why it's not yet completely impossible for Cow to win (though he's very much an underdog compared to Bert and Spade) but even then he'd probably need one of his names I've more or less written off.
9. Stefan Karl Stefansson (Spade) - A Bert loss will almost certainly mean Stefansson dies this year. I felt him, Gilbert, and Ricketts were the big 50/50 death punts at the year's outset. Karl is still the best pick of those three as his cancer is the most aggressive, on top of his refusal of further chemo, but he's keeping active enough that I think he's more a 2018 death. A recurrence needs to happen very soon for him to be dead this year.
10. Greg Gilbert (Spade) - Despite not qualifying for more cutting-edge treatments, cancer reacted extraordinary well to chemo. Almost certain to recur but even if it happens before the new year, unlikely his death occurs until after.
11. Simon Ricketts (Bert) - Not much info lately on how he's doing cancerwise, but still tweeting a plenty so presumably still responding well to treatment. Should cruise rather easily into 2018.
12. Valery Spiridonov (Cow) - Well off the radar now that he'll no longer be the head transplant guinea pig. Not unthinkable he could still die from his late-stage illness, and not unthinkable he could still obit (given the Mail wrote an article after it was confirmed he'd no longer get the head transplant). But still overall an unlikely hit.
13. Charles Bradley (Spade) - Recovered well from his stomach cancer, very active touring in recent months. Has canceled a few shows in the past week due to a bout of colitis. But probably nothing fatal.
14. Alberto Fujimori (Cow) - Ian Brady and Flat Cap Murray fulfilled the "criminal who actually dies" niche.
15. Catherine Nevin (Bert/Spade) - As above. Though even worse a pick than Fujimori, with her going to court to get her murdered husband's estate! But still have to give her credit for fooling as many top poolers as she did.

 

So with this, I project Bert winning on getting at least Cryne (and a fair chance of Michael as well), despite Spade still having two even stronger differentials, while Stefan Karl lives into 2018.

[the_engineer 1,415]

joint 45th and 6 deaths this is my best performance and its still rather shit haha.

[Spade_Cooley 9,528]

Sorry, just trying to work out which one of me, DDT and DI are Leonard, Hagler and Hearns.

 

OoO is obviously Duran.

[RadGuy 1,614]

August is turning out to be an absolutely massive month.

 

17 hits only 2/3 into the month... the same as the total for both June and July!

 

A ton of hits for teams in the top 20 or so. Brokenshire, Campbell, Flat-Cap Murray, Kristal, Forsyth, Meads. Also potentially Bannatyne and Cameron-Blackie if they get obits.

 

3 hits in the Drop 40: Campbell, Forsyth, Meads.

[Joey Russ 7,228]

I hope Cameron-Blackie gets an obit so DDT continues his streak on getting a unique pick every year. Bannatyne, on the other hand, not so much. I think Shameless has enough hits, and I want to be above Shameless for the rest of the year...

[gcreptile 10,972]

Hmm, the 127pts of The B-Team is a new personal best for me. Weird.

 

Edit: The title fight is now down to Rayya Elias vs. King Michael or Patrick Cryne. Elias is probably the best pick of those three. But Bert only needs one out of two.

[RadGuy 1,614]

8 hours ago, Joey Russ said:

I hope Cameron-Blackie gets an obit so DDT continues his streak on getting a unique pick every year.

It would also help continue his streak of being in the top 20, but he can still realistically achieve that with Rayya Elias and Clive James.

[msc 18,476]

4 hours ago, gcreptile said:

Hmm, the 127pts of The B-Team is a new personal best for me. Weird.

 

Edit: The title fight is now down to Rayya Elias vs. King Michael or Patrick Cryne. Elias is probably the best pick of those three. But Bert only needs one out of two.

 

So The Love Boat is the B-team this year!

 

4 minutes ago, Phantom of the Midway said:

It would also help continue his streak of being in the top 20, but he can still realistically achieve that with Rayya Elias and Clive James.

 

Pretty sure she'll get an obit, especially after standing against Corbyn.

[Sir Creep 7,070]

On 8/11/2017 at 12:51, Sir Creep said:

I'm aware we've written off Cancel My Appointments, but as we hope against hopes for a top 20 finish, know that beyond a Campbell HIT and Elias being our joker, that unique pick Nabeel Qureshi has been in hospital three weeks now.

SC

And how about a hit for Sir Colin Meads to boot.  Here we come!
SC

[Joey Russ 7,228]

2 minutes ago, Sir Creep said:

And how about a hit for Sir Colin Meads to boot.  Here we come!
SC

I could be wrong, but I think that you need to be over 100 points this time if you want a chance to be in the top 20. Even if Elias dies (she will), Overton dies, and Qureshi dies and obits, you'll still only be at 98 points. And with Downie and Bracknell still on the table, you'll lose massive ground if they die...