By-Election Bingo 2017-22

[YoungWillz 21,050]

How long will Theresa May remain on the backbenches?

 

Can't see the Tories calling a General Election, even with a change of leader.

[The Old Crem 3,605]

6 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

How long will Theresa May remain on the backbenches?

 

Can't see the Tories calling a General Election, even with a change of leader.

Claims she won't go until the next election - but voting for things she clearly doesn't believe in might see her change her mind like David Cameron did.

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

6 hours ago, YoungWillz said:

How long will Theresa May remain on the backbenches?

 

Can't see the Tories calling a General Election, even with a change of leader.

 

I can see her sitting it out like Gordon Brown did.

[GraveDanger 22]

She will probably resign her seat to give her successor a clean break. When Cameron resigned as PM, there were news articles quite often about what he was doing on the backbenches, and whether it was undermining May.

[The Old Crem 3,605]

Just announced New PM will take office week beginning 22nd July (Most likely Wednesday 24th July).

 

[Deathray 2,940]

On 25/05/2019 at 17:53, GraveDanger said:

She will probably resign her seat to give her successor a clean break. When Cameron resigned as PM, there were news articles quite often about what he was doing on the backbenches, and whether it was undermining May.

 

Or she could hang around on backbenches for decades like Heath

 

Cameron (3 months as MP after resignation)

Brown (5 years as MP after losing election)

Blair (0 month as MP after resignation)

Major (4 years as MP after losing election)

Thatcher (2 years as MP after resignation)

Callaghan (8 years as MP after losing election)

Wilson (7 years as MP after resignation)

Heath (27 years as MP after losing election)

Wilson (13 years as MP after losing election, including second PM stint)

Douglas-Home (10 years as MP after losing election)

MacMillan (1 years as MP after resignation)

Eden (0 years as MP after resignation)

Churchill (9 years as MP after resignation)

Attlee (4 years as MP after losing election)

Churchill (19 years as MP after losing election).

Chamberlain (5 months after resignation)

 

 

 

 

 

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

These recall petitions might mean players take a different approach after the next election.  

Chris Davies (Brecon and Radnorshire) is not a hit here.

The Conservatives increased their majority here in 2017 but closest challenges are the Lib Dems.

Could be interesting.

 

Chris Davies is allowed to stand.

[YoungWillz 21,050]

Charlie Elphicke, suspended from the Tories for serious allegations, then reinstated so he could vote for May in the VONC, has had those serious allegations progress to prosecution: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-49072464

 

Oh dear, how sad, never mind.

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

7 hours ago, YoungWillz said:

Charlie Elphicke, suspended from the Tories for serious allegations, then reinstated so he could vote for May in the VONC, has had those serious allegations progress to prosecution: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-49072464

 

Oh dear, how sad, never mind.

 

Even if this did come to a by-election there are no points in this competition. At this rate the Government might fall with just one scoring hit.

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

Jared O'Mara will score points but only if he gets to resign before a General Election is called. 

 

Tick tock!

[maryportfuncity 10,647]

On 25/05/2019 at 17:53, GraveDanger said:

She will probably resign her seat to give her successor a clean break. When Cameron resigned as PM, there were news articles quite often about what he was doing on the backbenches, and whether it was undermining May.

 

 

To be fair - Maidenhead is a shoo-in for a pig in a suit so long as it's sporting a Tory rosette.

[Cat O'Falk 3,290]

On 14/11/2018 at 21:25, wengeruk said:

Fiona Onasanya (Peterborough) is currently on trial for claiming someone else was driving when caught speeding

 

After being convicted, serving a gaol sentence and losing her commons seat, she's now been struck off as a solicitor. Serves her bloody right.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7326941/Disgraced-former-Labour-MP-Fiona-Onasanya-struck-solicitor.html

[En Passant 3,741]

19 minutes ago, Cat O'Falk said:

 

 she's now been struck off as a solicitor.

 

"Having been found guilty of the charges she will now argue against being struck off and having to pay £22,762 in costs for 40 hours work by Solicitors' Regulatory Authority."

 

I wouldn't argue for too long if I were you Fi, not at £569.05 an hour.

[Deathray 2,940]

On 28/07/2019 at 13:57, Bibliogryphon said:

Jared O'Mara will score points but only if he gets to resign before a General Election is called. 

 

Tick tock!

 

And now he's been arrested for fraud.

 

Do you remember when you used to look at third world countries MPs being a bunch of corrupt, good for nothing morons and laugh? Oh simpler times.

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

The events at Westminster this week mean that an election is probably going to be held before Christmas curtailing this competition. I will start a game for 2019-2024 because the short time frame and the politically febrile atmosphere means that some interesting characters will be in parliament.

[The Old Crem 3,605]

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1175692459185016833

Labour MP Mike HIll suspended from his party

Election later this year depends on polls in 5-7 weeks time but is 85% likely.

 

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

This Parliament will fall before Christmas. Once the October 31st cliff edge is cleared one way or the other, the opposition will give Boris his election. Can't believe there's only been one scoring hit in this pool in 2 and a half years. There have been at least 41 changes of party allegiance in this Parliament but none have led to a by election.

 

Death is becoming less of a factor, probably due to improved healthcare and younger MPs. It seems in future, appointments or elections for other posts are more likely causes of by elections: Regional Mayor, Police and Crime Commissioner, Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly... To illustrate the point, here's a rough breakdown of the last 10 Parliaments according to reasons for by elections:

 

1979-1983: 20 by elections, 15 deaths, 2 new roles, 1 party change, 2 others

1983-1987: 31 by elections, 11 deaths, 5 new roles (15 Northern Ireland Unionists had by elections in opposition to the Anglo-Irish Agreement, all but one re-elected)

1987-1992: 24 by elections, 20 deaths, 4 new roles, 

1992-1997: 18 by elections, 16 deaths, 2 new roles

1997-2001: 17 by elections, 10 deaths, 5 new roles, 2 others

2001-2005: 6 by elections, 4 deaths, 2 new roles

2005-2010: 14 by elections, 8 deaths, 2 new roles, 4 others

2010-2015: 21 by elections, 6 deaths, 6 new roles, 2 party changes, 7 others

2015-2017: 10 by elections, 3 deaths, 4 new roles, 3 others

2017-2019: 5 by elections, 1 death, 2 recalls, 1 new role, 1 other

 

Things to consider for the next round. And as Biblio says, there's going to be a febrile atmosphere and the potential for more upheaval to come.

[msc 18,477]

Although 2015-17, and 2017-19 is 1 parliament length split into 2. Combine them and its not that far off the norm.

 

With Skinner and Clwyd looking like leaving the Commons by hearse only and a number of Labour and Tories stressing over Brexit in their 60s and 70s, I don't see the Reapers role in byelections going away in the 2020s...

 

I mean, when you least expect it, a Jim Dobbin goes and chokes to death after overdosing on Polish absinthe. Legit couldn't tell you anything he did in parliament, but the hell am I ever forgetting that cause of death!

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

9 hours ago, msc said:

With Skinner and Clwyd looking like leaving the Commons by hearse only and a number of Labour and Tories stressing over Brexit in their 60s and 70s, I don't see the Reapers role in byelections going away in the 2020s...

 

Agreed about Skinner. And Corbyn. And McDonnell. But 42 MPs have already announced they won't be seeking re-election next time around, and the oldest 20 of those have an average age of nearly 71. So plenty of oldies on their way and there'll be more to follow I'd imagine. Only 32 deaths in the past 22 years, compared to  62 in the previous 18.

 

Plus it's hard to build up a head of steam in this game when there's an election every 3 years. 

[msc 18,477]

11 hours ago, RoverAndOut said:

 

Agreed about Skinner. And Corbyn. And McDonnell. But 42 MPs have already announced they won't be seeking re-election next time around, and the oldest 20 of those have an average age of nearly 71. So plenty of oldies on their way and there'll be more to follow I'd imagine. Only 32 deaths in the past 22 years, compared to  62 in the previous 18.

 

Plus it's hard to build up a head of steam in this game when there's an election every 3 years. 

 

Don't worry, when Jeremy gets a 160 seat majority in the November election, there wont be another election till 2024!

 

(Notes for any passing Seans - not a serious prediction. )

[The Old Crem 3,605]

On 26/09/2019 at 13:47, msc said:

Although 2015-17, and 2017-19 is 1 parliament length split into 2. Combine them and its not that far off the norm.

 

With Skinner and Clwyd looking like leaving the Commons by hearse only and a number of Labour and Tories stressing over Brexit in their 60s and 70s, I don't see the Reapers role in byelections going away in the 2020s...

 

I mean, when you least expect it, a Jim Dobbin goes and chokes to death after overdosing on Polish absinthe. Legit couldn't tell you anything he did in parliament, but the hell am I ever forgetting that cause of death!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-49864878

Ann Clwyd stepping down.

[Ulitzer95 12,641]

John Mann says he will quit as an MP at the end of this month as he leaves Labour and becomes a non-affiliated peer in the House of Lords.

 

Assuming we won’t have a GE in 2019, by-election it is.

 

 

[the_engineer 1,415]

Louise ellman has also left the labour Party as she was going to be deselected. Not sure if this triggers a by election or not? Think she'll become as an independent. Apparently she can't make Corbyn PM and it's the Jew hatred within the labour party.  But I'm not so sure.  Maybe no smoke without fire or are the anti Corbynites using anti Semitism to try and get rid of Corbyn? 

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

3 hours ago, the_engineer said:

Louise ellman has also left the labour Party as she was going to be deselected. Not sure if this triggers a by election or not? Think she'll become as an independent. Apparently she can't make Corbyn PM and it's the Jew hatred within the labour party.  But I'm not so sure.  Maybe no smoke without fire or are the anti Corbynites using anti Semitism to try and get rid of Corbyn? 

There are those on the far left who are anti-Semitic but Corbyn is not amongst them. His support for Palestine and criticism of the Israeli government is being deliberately portrayed as anti-Semitic by the Blairite wing. He does not have the support of the parliamentary party but he would win any vote put to the party membership. The mechanism that the Tories have makes it easier to remove a leader by MPs

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

This looks like it is cruising to another early finish and at the moment could be just a score draw. With the only losers being The people who didn't pick Paul Flynn and The British Electorate.

 

Although it stays running until The Queen officially dissolves parliament. 

 

The new Parliament will be messy. Is there time for full scrutiny of candidates and it could be the ugliest and most poisonous campaign ever. However this might mean that the non death by elections might be more interesting.

 

However before I get ahead of myself who wants me to run By-election Bingo 2019-2024?