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Joey Russ

Who will win the Democratic Nomination for President in 2020?

Who’s going to win the nomination   

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 Something seems fishy here tbh...

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It's not fishy, it's just incompetence and an unnecessary novelty factor..

 

... it does make me wish for Michael Bloomberg to just wash away the rest of the field with billions of dollars and executive comepetence.

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Looks like a good night for klobuchar 

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God, if I could vote, it would definitely be Bloomberg now. They need to reform the whole party apparatus. The Clintonites probably thought they were such great organizers, but in the end, their success was completely created by Bill's charisma.

Then Obama left the people of his 2008 campaign out to dry and compromised too much. 

Now the Democratic party is a mess. Iowa caucus turnout was on 2016 levels. The Republicans are completely eclipsing the Democrats in the use of social media. 

 

Mike Bloomberg is the only one I can see who would put the right people in the right places. He's the true candidate of the "Defeat Trump at all costs" faction. Yes, he will not create "bold" change, but he will govern quietly and effectively. He'll pick the right judges. 

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See, but that’s the problem. Hillary Clinton’s message was basically “we got to defeat Trump”, and what did trump do? Run to the left on many issues and win enough votes in the rust belt to win. Trump ran as an anti corruption candidate, Bloomberg trump could easily destroy him by running another anti corruption campaign. Just look at his super bowl ad touting the first step act success. For all of Trump’s flaws (and he has very many), he probably has some of the best political instincts in general. At least more so than the morons who run the DNC. Also, Bloomberg was a former Republican and spoke a keynote speech for George W Bush. 
Trump is definitely the favorite to win re election as much as I hate to say it. The only that I could see the Democrats winning is by countering a faux populist with an actual populist. But I have no faith in the DNC at all...

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Surprised Pete Buttigieg hasn't been discussed more.  I voted for him and he appears to have done well in the Iowa caucuses. 

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Still no full results from Iowa, but with 71% in, it's looking like my man Bernie Sanders is winning the popular vote, Pete Buttigieg is winning in state delegates, and they're both tied in estimated delegates to the DNC?

Oh, America, you and your over-complicated elections...

 

Anyway, I registered to vote a few days ago and I can't wait to cast my first vote in the Illinois primary on March 17th!

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17 hours ago, DevonDeathTrip said:

Surprised Pete Buttigieg hasn't been discussed more.  I voted for him and he appears to have done well in the Iowa caucuses. 

 

Well with a Trump and a Johnson it seems inevitable that Buttigieg is going to join the party.

 

I don't see another vaguely rude name on the list.

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Honestly, there is not a single Democrat candidate that is worth a shit.

Trump is a shoo in for another term.

Impeachment has bolstered him. He has been telling everybody since he got elected 'they are all against me, they are all against everybody that voted for me..'

He now has his 'proof' that they are, indeed, against him and all that dared to choose him for President.

He will not have lost support, he may now have even increased it such is the utter clusterfuck that masqueraded as a serious and solemn bringing the President to book bollocks.

If you want to get rid of fucktards like Trump then you have to have a strong opposition that does not play on the outdated and, frankly, piss poor assumption that all working class folk are victims and subjugated by all those nasty rich people. It doesn't wash.

It is why Labour got utterly trounced ( not just Brexit) and why the Democrats will, in all probability, lose again.

We are now stuck with Johnson for a full term, the US look certain to be stuck with Trumptard.

As an aside, I was in hysterics watching Trump not handshake ole Nancy and her tearing up his speech copies.

You have to say, Trump has bought humour to Politics in a way that none of us would have imagined...

 

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 Um...

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New Hampshire Polls mostly closed.

 

Results Friday....:P

 

Only kidding...who's it going to be? Will it matter? When will Steyer drop out?

 

All these questions and more....film at 11.

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While waiting for New Hampshire, Andrew Yang seems to be ending his campaign tonight.

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26 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

While waiting for New Hampshire, Andrew Yang seems to be ending his campaign tonight.

It's true.

He was my favorite candidate. :(

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In less sad news, Michael Bennet is suspending his campaign

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Bernie Sanders has been declared the winner of New Hampshire primary by multiple sources...

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Biden and Warren have been delivered an arse kicking, it appears. 
 

BBC article comments on how it was a good night for Sanders, Buttigieg and Klobuchar (and Yang, weirdly).

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The more this goes on, the more I think it's gonna be Mayor Pete.

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Online odds to win the Democratic nomination. For entertainment purposes only. 

 

Sanders 11/10

Bloomberg 5/2

Mayor Pete 5/1

Biden 10/1

Klobuchar 15/1

Clinton 20/1

Warren 25/1

Obama 100/1

Steyer 150/1

 

Perhaps an outlandish prediction, but I could see Hillary waiting for everyone else to beat each other up in the battle royale before sweeping in late and taking the nomination. Hell, I'll throw a dart.

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This is getting very, very muddled.

Sanders might have wanted to win by more than those not even 2% yesterday. He couldn't pick up any support of Warren or Biden. Maybe he'll get some Yang people now, but considering that New Hampshire was favorable territory for him, he'll have  a hard time breaking 30% anywhere.

However, as long as the moderates are so divided, that might just be enough...

 

Nevada and South Carolina will be totally different events. The Culinary Union is apparently refusing to back Sanders (Harry Reid's work?) and Amy Klobuchar has no organization there (though I do wonder how important organization actually is). Bloomberg will not be on the ballot until Super Tuesday, so you don't know if all the ads and money actually amount to anything.

 

I think Biden will not win South Carolina (another Sanders/Buttigieg with 25% each situation) neither will Steyer who made a play for it. The latter will drop out, the former might. Warren might also drop out before Super Tuesday, where will her people go to?

 

The pundits and their fever dreams are now talking stuff like...what if Kamala Harris un-suspended her campaign? Such a mess. I don't know, maybe there's just too much noise for a political nerd right now.

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1 hour ago, HDS said:

Perhaps an outlandish prediction, but I could see Hillary waiting for everyone else to beat each other up in the battle royale before sweeping in late and taking the nomination. Hell, I'll throw a dart.

I think you might be right here. Wonder who Killary would choose as her VP? She would have unlimited funding from both Bloomberg and the Clinton Foundation. You will need a spear to stop those reptiles.

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There is a lot of noise. There's really 4 options left on the table.

 

Sanders. The favourite right now.

Warren IF something happens to Sanders, or she proves more palatable to the less white states, for lack of a better term. Unlikely as it stands.

Bloomberg. Lots of bigging up by the usual suspects but I can't see him doing well in the race. Sanders (and indeed Trump) do well in these things because they tell folk their situations suck and they can fix them.

The "Not Bernie Sanders" centre/centre right pick the Dems solidify around to replace Uncle Joe. The options for that aren't promising at the present moment. Maybe Kloubacher or Buttigieg could coalesce that around them if the other drops out, but they're not exactly screaming demographic nabbers right now.

 

As it stands it's Bernies to lose. Which I wouldn't have called back when he had his heart attack.

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IMO, it’s most likely gonna be one of Sanders and Bloomberg tbh. Mayor Pete and Klobuchar doesn’t have very many minority support which will likely hinder them in later states, Warren and Biden have imploded, Tulsi is a nonentity, and Steyer, well, he really hasn’t been that affective with his money tbh. Here’s the thing with Bloomberg, as much as a piece of shit he is (seriously, I would honestly prefer anyone other than him to be the nominee he’s that bad), he has really dumped a lot of money on ads to try to gain support. And he’s currently in third in the polls. So that’s something to really take note of especially with Biden looking more and more like he’s the nominee. Also, the mainstream press has done nothing to criticize his abysmal record as mayor too...

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5 hours ago, Spade_Cooley said:

The more this goes on, the more I think it's gonna be Mayor Pete.

 

I agree.

 

Sanders should win the campaign; it's certainly his to lose now. But I think he'll manage it. In recent history, the left-wing candidate appears to struggle in most countries. Even if Sanders did get the nomination, he'd probably do a Corbyn in the November election. As for Buttygag, his performance thus far has been pretty impressive (in terms of numbers, not politics). He could well be the surprise candidate.

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2 hours ago, msc said:

to the less white states, for lack of a better term

 

states of more color? (US spelling deliberate).

 

Surely Sanders loses to Trump - because Sanders and Sanders VP both have to be electable due to his heart attack. No one can have faith that a 79 year old man (by time of elections) is good for 4 years of being POTUS and so his VP also needs to be good enough which gives Trump two people to attack.

 

So may as well have Buttejej.

 

 

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