By -Election Bingo 2019-2024

[The Old Crem 3,588]

8 minutes ago, Ulitzer95 said:

I imagine so. That's the start of the process anyway. The Commons will now conclude their own investigation, if she's suspended then her constituents will be able to launch a recall petition.

Not that it makes any difference. The SNP are polling so high in that part of Scotland right now, and the their base support is so cultish that if they put up Peter Tobin as a candidate they'd still win.

The Commons investigation is likely to be paused while legal proceedings are undertaken so it be a long period for a by-election unless she resigns.

[Bibliogryphon 9,579]

10 hours ago, The Old Crem said:

The Commons investigation is likely to be paused while legal proceedings are undertaken so it be a long period for a by-election unless she resigns.

I think there is internal pressure from the SNP for her to fall on her sword to show the electorate that they are accountable unlike certain other parties where no-one ever seems too resign. Though the moral high ground may have been sacrificed by Nicola Sturgeon's own covid mistake.

[CoffinLodger 1,248]

13 hours ago, The Old Crem said:

The Commons investigation is likely to be paused while legal proceedings are undertaken so it be a long period for a by-election unless she resigns.

Why have they not started a recall petition allready? 

[Bibliogryphon 9,579]

1 hour ago, CoffinLodger said:

Why have they not started a recall petition allready? 

There is a threshold for starting one, criminal conviction is one of them. If the sentence is greater than 1 year (iirc) they are automatically disbarred but anything below that there can be a recall petition.

[msc 18,443]

4 hours ago, Bibliogryphon said:

I think there is internal pressure from the SNP for her to fall on her sword to show the electorate that they are accountable unlike certain other parties where no-one ever seems too resign. Though the moral high ground may have been sacrificed by Nicola Sturgeon's own covid mistake.

 

Much as it pains me to defend high profile politicians, there's a slight difference in briefly taking off a mask to speak to someone, and knowingly going on a public train with covid.

 

Anyhow, as the last few years have shown, parties can't force MPs to resign, they can only remove them from their respective parties. See Charles Elphicke, Eric Joyce, etc etc.

[Bibliogryphon 9,579]

46 minutes ago, msc said:

 

Much as it pains me to defend high profile politicians, there's a slight difference in briefly taking off a mask to speak to someone, and knowingly going on a public train with covid.

 

Anyhow, as the last few years have shown, parties can't force MPs to resign, they can only remove them from their respective parties. See Charles Elphicke, Eric Joyce, etc etc.

Totally agree with the degree of severity re NS's faux pas. However if MT were to resign (to clear her name) it allows the SNP to draw a clear line regarding responsibility. If she goes with good grace she can always come back at a later date but if she hangs around for a recall petition she will not recover from that and will not be welcomed in the party. It will give the SNP a chance to inflict a heavy by-election defeat to the Tories weeks before the Scottish parliament elections.

[The Old Crem 3,588]

11 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

Totally agree with the degree of severity re NS's faux pas. However if MT were to resign (to clear her name) it allows the SNP to draw a clear line regarding responsibility. If she goes with good grace she can always come back at a later date but if she hangs around for a recall petition she will not recover from that and will not be welcomed in the party. It will give the SNP a chance to inflict a heavy by-election defeat to the Tories weeks before the Scottish parliament elections.

The Tories wining Rutherglen feels unlikely - they only got 15% in 2019 and 19.5% in 2017. Labour are surely still the more likely shock winner in a by-election even with their further decline since 2019.

[YoungWillz 21,044]

42 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

Totally agree with the degree of severity re NS's faux pas. However if MT were to resign (to clear her name) it allows the SNP to draw a clear line regarding responsibility. If she goes with good grace she can always come back at a later date but if she hangs around for a recall petition she will not recover from that and will not be welcomed in the party. It will give the SNP a chance to inflict a heavy by-election defeat to the Tories weeks before the Scottish parliament elections.

 

29 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

The Tories wining Rutherglen feels unlikely - they only got 15% in 2019 and 19.5% in 2017. Labour are surely still the more likely shock winner in a by-election even with their further decline since 2019.

As a constituent in the area and eligible to vote, Labour would not be a shock take for Rutherglen. It has see sawed, Labour regaining from the SNP in 2017 and losing again in 2019. Labour's vote is remarkably consistent, SNP voters have to get out to vote.

 

There are parts of the constituency which are either Hard Tory or Hard LibDem, but both are so small as to make both also-rans in UK Parliament elections.

 

It won't be COVID or Ferrier's trip that decides it though, if it were to take place.

[msc 18,443]

5 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

 

As a constituent in the area and eligible to vote, Labour would not be a shock take for Rutherglen. It has see sawed, Labour regaining from the SNP in 2017 and losing again in 2019. Labour's vote is remarkably consistent, SNP voters have to get out to vote.

 

There are parts of the constituency which are either Hard Tory or Hard LibDem, but both are so small as to make both also-rans in UK Parliament elections.

 

It won't be COVID or Ferrier's trip that decides it though, if it were to take place.

 

Like a few of the Glasgow seats, it strikes me as the type of place that would drop the SNP quickly if their voters thought they could get rid of Boris (which no one clearly thought in 2019). Its sort of ebbed and flowed according to the national SNP position whereas some other seats have remained fairly consistent - Chris Law's seat now seems fairly safe Nat for example.

[Bibliogryphon 9,579]

Even if the Conservative vote is relatively low if they were to lose their deposit it would provide a terrifying glimpse of what might happen at the Scottish Parliament elections. How do you regain momentum in a short timescale. If the current incumbent hangs around it is more likely the By-election will take place on the same day as the SP elections.

[The Old Crem 3,588]

13 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

 

As a constituent in the area and eligible to vote, Labour would not be a shock take for Rutherglen. It has see sawed, Labour regaining from the SNP in 2017 and losing again in 2019. Labour's vote is remarkably consistent, SNP voters have to get out to vote.

 

There are parts of the constituency which are either Hard Tory or Hard LibDem, but both are so small as to make both also-rans in UK Parliament elections.

 

It won't be COVID or Ferrier's trip that decides it though, if it were to take place.

I mean with the current SNP polling figures even them losing would be a surprise.

[Bibliogryphon 9,579]

It is now two years since the death of Paul Flynn, the last serving MP to die. This is a new record of time between deaths of serving MPs.

[msc 18,443]

Just now, Bibliogryphon said:

It is now two years since the death of Paul Flynn, the last serving MP to die. This is a new record of time between deaths of serving MPs.

 

All the old or unhealthy folk got booted out by Boris/Corbyn/3 elections in 4 years. Even David Winnick is still alive in retirement.

[The Old Crem 3,588]

Mike Hill Mp for Hartlepool has just quit with immediate effect. What a by- election that will be. Quite likely to be a Tory gain I will say based on current polling and the vaccine boost helping the Tories even more. Labour won’t give it up without a fight - Hartlepool has defied predictions of Labour losing it before. 

[Bibliogryphon 9,579]

15 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

Mike Hill Mp for Hartlepool has just quit with immediate effect. What a by- election that will be. Quite likely to be a Tory gain I will say based on current polling and the vaccine boost helping the Tories even more. Labour won’t give it up without a fight - Hartlepool has defied predictions of Labour losing it before. 

Labour have pulled closer since the election nationally and the Conservatives have suffered somewhat from Brexit realities and a poor start to the pandemic. The Conservatives didn't take this at a high watermark of 2019. A lot will depend on the candidate Labour puts up. If an outsider Starmer loyalist is parachuted in some left leaning members and voters might reject them allowing the Tories to sneak the seat without substantially increasing their vote

[Spade_Cooley 9,525]

Has all the makings of a classic by-election for the reasons stated upthread. First real test of Starmer at the ballot box, dead in the middle of the "red wall" and the Brexit Party took 25.8% of the vote last time out, which is up for grabs now.

[Bibliogryphon 9,579]

So it is all looking like a showdown on May 6th.

 

Labour have parachuted in a defeated candidate from a neighbouring constituency who is characterized as an arch remainder but is also a doctor. 

 

Both fringes seem to be coming out of the wood work with at least three candidates trying to position themselves to the right of the Conservatives (as if). However the biggest current credible threat is that of the Northern Independence Party who will be fielding a candidate. As well as The North East party and the SDP. 

These could easily take a chunk out of the Labour vote allowing the Conservatives a win without increasing their share of the vote. However the will keep expectations low with the party in power doesn't win by-elections but the whole thing is relatively low risk for them unless they really collapse

[Sean 6,322]

The Old Crem:10

nantonian 2013:10

 

Scoreboard for resignation of Mike Hill.Although he is suspected of criminal activity there is no evidence he has been arrested charged or facing a criminal investigation so no extra points for criminality.

[En Passant 3,741]

11 minutes ago, Sean said:

The Old Cream

 

Is not getting whipped.

 

 

 

Yes, I know, lamentable. Don't care, it amuses me.

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

On 19/03/2021 at 13:13, Bibliogryphon said:

So it is all looking like a showdown on May 6th.

Labour have parachuted in a defeated candidate from a neighbouring constituency who is characterized as an arch remainder but is also a doctor. 

Both fringes seem to be coming out of the wood work with at least three candidates trying to position themselves to the right of the Conservatives (as if). However the biggest current credible threat is that of the Northern Independence Party who will be fielding a candidate. As well as The North East party and the SDP. 

These could easily take a chunk out of the Labour vote allowing the Conservatives a win without increasing their share of the vote. However the will keep expectations low with the party in power doesn't win by-elections but the whole thing is relatively low risk for them unless they really collapse

 

I'm sure I saw an interview on Newsnight a few days ago with Richard Tice, gobshite former Brexit MEP and newly unelected leader of Reform UK after Nigel decided to take his latest political sabbatical, who grandly insisted that only HE could beat Labour and the Tories should stand aside and allow him an easy victory.

 

Then I saw a woman who voted for Jeremy Corbyn in 2019 but since he left hasn't bothered to learn anything about Keir Starmer, doesn't know anything about him and is open to voting for the Tories this time around, and I had to turn over before I threw something at my television. 

[msc 18,443]

Airdrie byelection. It's like waiting for buses.

 

Also it would be utterly Labour of them to somehow beat the SNP to gain Airdrie only to lose Hartlepool at the same time...

[Bibliogryphon 9,579]

Weird one. He is resigning to fight the same seat for the Scottish Parliament. SNP rules insist he does so. No scandal, no drama, minimum points

[Philip 121]

Dame Cheryl gillian is dead

[Bibliogryphon 9,579]

4 hours ago, Philip said:

Dame Cheryl gillian is dead

The first actual death of the Parliament and the first death of a sitting Conservative MP in som considerable time.

 

However she was on my list for this game.

[maryportfuncity 10,646]

6 hours ago, Philip said:

Dame Cheryl gillian is dead

 

 

Aye, so a couple of things - first off if the family wanted to save a few quid she appears to have a few front teeth substantial enough to serve as a tombstone

 

Secondly, even if the other parties stood aside to allow the second placed Lib Dems a crack at taking the seat from the Tories then the numbers from the last election suggest it would be a tough ask, majority of over 16,000 and 55% percent of the whole vote as of 12 Dec 2019