Derby Dead Pool 2022

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,328]

8 hours ago, Lafaucheuse said:

I will be interesting in joining in 2023 but I can't find the scoring rules on the site. What is the drop 40 section and the party pooper one ? are we allowed to do a french theme team for example and a main list ? will we score for both ?

Welcome!

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,328]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11501563/Bob-McGrath-original-star-Sesame-Street-started-1967-dies-90.html

 

Actor Bob McGrath of Sesame Street fame a unique hit in the DDP. 

[Youth in Asia 1,082]

We got the new entry forms already? I mean no-one can do a thing until we find out what's happening with Pele.

[Grim Up North 3,717]

1 minute ago, Youth in Asia said:

We got the new entry forms already? I mean no-one can do a thing until we find out what's happening with Pele.

You could send in your theme teams?

[Joey Russ 7,210]

1 hour ago, Youth in Asia said:

We got the new entry forms already? I mean no-one can do a thing until we find out what's happening with Pele.

That’s why subs exist, in case some of your name dies before the starting line

[maryportfuncity 10,616]

12 hours ago, Youth in Asia said:

We got the new entry forms already? I mean no-one can do a thing until we find out what's happening with Pele.

 

 

And Rolf, and Bob Barker - that's the fun of dead pooling, or summat

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,328]

Kirstie  Alleys shock death provides a unique' hit ' for the DDP .

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-11506083/Kirstie-Alley-dead-71-Cheers-stars-heartbroken-children-announce-actress-passed-away.html

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,328]

16' hits''now needed within 25 days  to match last year's total  and obviously 17 to beat it.

 

I am increasingly optimistic that it is going to happen. 

[YoungWillz 20,918]

Mills Lane QO: https://www.dailystar.co.uk/sport/boxing/mills-lane-mike-tyson-boxing-28670669

[msc 18,397]

Hadn't been paying attention to the table recently, surprised to find myself only 7 points off my most successful DDP year (and in 5th place, also my best placing ever). Tall ask this late on to surpass either of these "personal records" but the sort of navel gazing stat our @Gooseberry Crumble loves! 

[gcreptile 10,939]

Gone for a week, no score updates for a while.

[Death Impends 7,942]

Helen Slayton-Hughes QO: https://uk.news.yahoo.com/entertainment/parks-recreation-helen-slayton-hughes-181257523.html

 

December's hit a day clip continues.

[YoungWillz 20,918]

On 06/12/2022 at 19:22, Gooseberry Crumble said:

16' hits''now needed within 25 days  to match last year's total  and obviously 17 to beat it.

 

I am increasingly optimistic that it is going to happen. 

 

21 hours ago, msc said:

 

Reptile got to 260. Since then: Madoc, Johnson (Dambuster), Jet Black = 263?

 

16 needed for the record, 21 days.

 

21 hours ago, YoungWillz said:

Helen Slayton-Hughes even got a Mail obit so that's another one.

With Georgia Holt and Beryl Grey added to confirmed obits, the tally is getting closer.

 

All while @gcreptile is away!!! 

 

I remain astonished that Louise Tobin has nothing.

[msc 18,397]

39 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

 

 

With Georgia Holt and Beryl Grey added to confirmed obits, the tally is getting closer.

 

All while @gcreptile is away!!! 

 

I remain astonished that Louise Tobin has nothing.

 

13 to go, 20 days and not out of the question some of those weird LOTLers get a mention in End of Year Reviews. I mean, someone somewhere has to mention Sonny Caldinez!

[Evil Grimace 359]

Alright, this post is probably 10 days overdue, but it was made possible due to a solid snow fall cancelling trains and a bout of insomnia!

 

While @Death Impends has already mentioned that DQSP is nearly certainly the winner, I would like to be the first to congratulate him on the win and a successful drive for five.

 

As of 12 December, with a 16 point lead, thanks to the recent hits of Phelan (14 November) and Reichert (1 December), the maths make it clear that his nearest contenders need two hits to make up the difference.  And those hits have to be a high point D40/Unique plus another pick.  It is not impossible, but unlikely.

 

For those who want to read more than the TL:DR synopsis above and check their unlikely paths to victory, read below.

 

Spoiler

Notation is player(rank) - DQSP(1)

 

First off, all top five have hit their jokers.  All picked Gary Burgess.

 

There are three hits and the respective points in limbo.  Dan Lacey, Ronnie Hellstrom and Antonio Russo all lack a QO.

 

An aspect of the DDP that has been mentioned by @Octopus of Odstock is the impact of the D40 on scoring.  No doubt that is a factor (more below).  Another aspect of the DDP is the fact that the total possible points of the teams varies a bit, but an overall average is ~200.  Winning teams often have potential points near this and win around ~150 points with 14-15 hits, an average of 10 points per hit.  I’ve long had a suspicion that the total possible points is a factor in winning, but I have not done the full analysis yet.

 

DQSP has dodged a lot of D40 hits (Weir, Phillips, JLL, Lansbury) over the past two months and come out ahead as the key ones are Field, Pele, Alagiah, Doherty, Whale, and Burrow. 

 

Field (9 pts) has been chosen by all in the top five.  Neutralized.

Pele (9 pts) by DQSP(1) and BSP(4) and Pan Breed (5).  By far the best to strengthen the lead and probably the most likely.

Alagiah (11 pts) is the threat long identified by DQSP and rightly so, as Smart Beta(2), TSotU(3) and BSP(4) all picked and would cover a lot of the difference.  All would still need another hit.

Doherty (12 pts) - one of three underestimated threats, only chosen by Smart Beta(2)

Whale (10 pts) - the second underestimated threat, only chosen by Smart Beta(2)  

Burrow (13 pts) - the third underestimated threat, only chosen by TSotU(3)

 

Paths of Victory

 

DQSP - currently winning, so any further hits only add to the lead.

 

Smart Beta (17 to win) - a hit with points 10 or greater, plus any other hit with the exception of Pressler; could still get a party pooper bonus with Starmer-Smith.

 

TSotU (18 to win) - Find the Dan Lacey QO!  That’s 8 points in limbo (and good enough for second place!), then a D40 hit.  Otherwise a D40 hit of Alagiah or Burrow plus any other hit, except for Pressler again.

 

BSP (25 to win) - Find the Ronnie Hellstrom QO!  Even with this, it is hard to see what could work, as Field, Pele, West, Alagiah are all counterfeit.  Even with Hellstrom, two other hits from Coucher, Lieber or Vialli are needed.

 

Pan Breed (31 to win) - And there are two QOs to find for Ronnie Hellstrom and Antonio Russo.  Field, Pele, Pressler are all counterfeit.  Hellstrom counterfeit too. Without the missing QOs and no counterfeit hits, the remaining picks of Bolland, McMichael and Zia cannot make up the difference with only 23 points.  

 

I accept that other players could win, but the chances are slim, especially as they would need over 31 points and not have any hit counterfeit as above.

 

Congrats DQSP!

 

 

As of 12 Dec		First	Second	Third	Fourth	Fifth
		DQSP	Smart Beta	TSotU	BSP	Pan Breed
	Hits	14	13	13	12	12
	Current Points	162	146	145	138	132
	Joker	Gary Burgess	Gary Burgess	Gary Burgess	Gary Burgess	Gary Burgess
Age/Notes	Picks
80, pt drop	Frank Field (D40)	9	9	9	9	9
82	Pele (D40)	9			9	9
83	Bill Steel	6
83	Dick Vitale	6
59	Don West	9			9
60, pt drop	Alyson Williams (U)	12
67	George Alagiah (D40)		11	11	11
51	Shannen Doherty (D40)		12
80, pt drop	Larry Pressler		6	6		6
78, bday Xmas	Nigel Starmer-Smith		7
71	James Whale (D40)		10
39	Zhang Zhan		10
40	Rob Burrow (D40)			13
71	Bobby Caldwell			7
61	Dan Lacey			8
36	Tammy Slaton			10
41	Chris Coucher				10
73	Ronnie Hellstrom				7	7
63	Charles M Lieber (U)				12
58	Gianluca Vialli				9
67	Rob Bolland					8
65	Steve McMichael					8
late 50s	Antonio Russo					9
77	Khaleda Zia					7
	Total possible	213	211	209	214	195

 

[Captain Hemlock 729]

Who do you think is the most surprising List of the Missed? I would vote for Shinzo Abe. I realize his assassination came from out of the blue but he went from being on 6 lists in 2021 to 0 lists this year.

[Death Impends 7,942]

1 hour ago, Captain Hemlock said:

Who do you think is the most surprising List of the Missed? I would vote for Shinzo Abe. I realize his assassination came from out of the blue but he went from being on 6 lists in 2021 to 0 lists this year.

 

I tend to assume every obit-lock 95+ year old finds their way onto the DDP these days, so I'd give it to Peter Brook or Virginia Patton.

 

Abe surely has to be the biggest drop in teams for a LotMer though.

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,328]

https://news.sky.com/story/angelo-badalamenti-twin-peaks-and-blue-velvet-composer-dies-aged-85-12767139

 

Angelo Badalamenti  a unique 'hit' for my Blueberry Crumble team.

[gcreptile 10,939]

Article from this month about how al Qaeda have still not confirmed the death of Ayman al-Zawahiri which would be needed to give out the points:

https://www.lawfareblog.com/did-al-qaeda-die-ayman-al-zawahiri

[YoungWillz 20,918]

Thanks for the mention @Death Impends on Jet Black's obit. 

[Death Impends 7,942]

On 12/12/2022 at 16:02, Captain Hemlock said:

Who do you think is the most surprising List of the Missed? I would vote for Shinzo Abe. I realize his assassination came from out of the blue but he went from being on 6 lists in 2021 to 0 lists this year.

 

Might give it to Mihajlovic now, thought for sure he'd be the type on at least a couple of casuals even if he seemed OK in his cancer battle. But no, List of the Missed.

[msc 18,397]

Just now, Death Impends said:

 

Might give it to Mihajlovic now, thought for sure he'd be the type on at least a couple of casuals even if he seemed OK in his cancer battle. But no, List of the Missed.

 

Me by PM the other week - you'd really love writing a Mihaljovic DDP obit. Talented but dodgy mad bastard.

DI to me - Actually, he wasn't even picked this year!

Me - WTF? Well hopefully he is next year.

 

My apologies to everyone's shortlists...

[YoungWillz 20,918]

So when Sydney Samuelson is added, stuck on 269 hits with a fortnight or so to go. SPOTY is next week so we should mop up another 2 I'd say for sure.

 

Cold snap about to end, will the relatively milder weather save the body count from increasing?

[gcreptile 10,939]

So the Iranian cleric they just added to Wikipedia's deaths of 2022 page, he's List of the Missed, picked last year by that cleric theme team:

https://www.tasnimnews.com/fa/news/1401/09/25/2822377/آیت-الله-روحانى-دار-فانی-را-وداع-گفت

[Joey Russ 7,210]

51 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

So the Iranian cleric they just added to Wikipedia's deaths of 2022 page, he's List of the Missed, picked last year by that cleric theme team:

https://www.tasnimnews.com/fa/news/1401/09/25/2822377/آیت-الله-روحانى-دار-فانی-را-وداع-گفت

Might’ve been better to let that name (and team) be forgotten