Thoughts On The 2022 List

[msc 18,436]

15 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

There have been some big name deaths but mostly they are coming from the left field.

 

Death's apprentice looks at the to do list and sees Leslie Phillips,  Norman Tebbit and Tony Bennett and thinks no I'll do Shane Warne, Taylor Hawkins and Auntie Bloody Mabel.

 

"See you've got Dot Cotton and Bob Barker, be a shame if I bumped off Dr Legg and Bamber Gascoigne instead..."

[Bibliogryphon 9,569]

On 10/01/2022 at 18:46, Joey Russ said:

I think it’s less of a prediction and more of an observation. Though given there’s already 2 hits I suspect they’ll get more than 7 this time…

Well we are now almost a quarter of the way through the year and we are still on two hits. Pro rata we would be looking at 8 or 9 hits total

[drol 11,916]

Not going well, both because there have hardly been notable deaths recently and because the list is pretty bad.

[Bibliogryphon 9,569]

 

If you look at this graph the days between 100 to 130 are generally relatively uneventful but the recent flurry of deaths puts us on course on a pro rata basis for about 15 hits (no year has ever ended on 15 hits)

 

In 2013 the 5th hit came on 8th April but then the next date there was a 5th hit was in 2018 when it was on 12th May

 

April is often a quiet time I suspect because the low hanging fruit goes in the first quarter and then there is a surge in the autumn as the how the hell are they not dead yet balance finally tips in our favour

[gcreptile 10,963]

5 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

April is often a quiet time I suspect because the low hanging fruit goes in the first quarter and then there is a surge in the autumn as the how the hell are they not dead yet balance finally tips in our favour

Yeah, I guess some patterns do emerge because of the way the committee chooses its people. They rarely go for the DDP-typical stage IV cancer people, but they do recognize when someone like Daniel Arap Moi has been on their last legs as the new year begins.

I think the committee wants to have more "death versatility" beyond cancer deaths, which explains their regular "frail but not really" picks like Joni Mitchell, Marianne Faithfull, or Linda Ronstadt.

[Lafaucheuse 4,043]

Boring… but i feel like Leslie Philips will die in the next few days… dunno Why but I feel like it 

[Bibliogryphon 9,569]

After the two quick hits in April the pro rate rate climbed to 15 hits but following a very slow period the expected run out is now 9 hits

 

For comparison the record breaking year of 2020 at this stage in the proceedings we were at 9 hits already and the 10th would come before the end of June

 

I still think there might be a cluster of hits but I am not getting the feels from anyone in particular that would add to the tally

 

However I do not think there have been many huge misses so far

[The Daredevil 1,189]

Monica Vitti and Lester Piggott are arguably the two biggest misses of the 2022 DL so far... 

 

[En Passant 3,740]

Bollocks.

 

There should be an insta-weeks-ban for even uttering the phrase 'biggest miss'. 

Oh and for posting a thread about births on a site about death.

 

 

(oh and before anyone gets all uppity, it's at least partly just  on my part, but seriously, it's basically a team set by "the committee" you can't say they 'missed' something because somebody other than those on the team died and happens to be remotely famous it's fucking bound to happen ffs.)

[Lafaucheuse 4,043]

33 minutes ago, En Passant said:

it's fucking bound to happen ffs

Yeah but When it’s bound to happen in a near future due to failing health or old old age and that the person meets the fame criteria to be on the list (or worse, was on the list), it’s annoying. Though it’s True, everyone dying out of the list is a « miss » in itself. Lester Piggot is not a so called miss imo as he wasn’t that ill and could have last for a year more or two but Vitti looked really near the end prior to her death… again if they had put her in, they should have drop someone and if it were June Brown or Estelle Harris for exemple, it wouldn’t have changed anything 

[Bibliogryphon 9,569]

12 minutes ago, Lafaucheuse said:

Yeah but When it’s bound to happen in a near future due to failing health or old old age and that the person meets the fame criteria to be on the list (or worse, was on the list), it’s annoying. Though it’s True, everyone dying out of the list is a « miss » in itself. Lester Piggot is not a so called miss imo as he wasn’t that ill and could have last for a year more or two but Vitti looked really near the end prior to her death… again if they had put her in, they should have drop someone and if it were June Brown or Estelle Harris for exemple, it wouldn’t have changed anything 

Monica Vitti made the crowdsourced list but Lester Piggott was not on either Crowdsourced or eligible for the inverse deadpool as one of the most picked in the DDP so I do not think he really counts as a Miss in that sense.

[msc 18,436]

Lester Piggot was on the list twice and the response was almost universally: what a stupid pick, Piggot will see 90 easily.

 

Had he been on this years list, the response on January 1st would have probably been the same.

 

He was in his mid 80s, he seemed in good nick, but then he went downhill suddenly. That's not a miss, that's just sods law.

 

Be like saying Diana Rigg (alas) was a miss in 2020. Sure, she was an A list celebrity. But nobody in December 2019 knew that one of the hardest working octogenarian TV stars in Britain was going to be suddenly diagnosed with cancer in April 2020.

[Death Impends 7,955]

TBH if I knew who died this year but didn't know who was on the DL I might have assumed Poitier and Brown were the only hits! Given how most of us thought Durst was faking, and Harris was just a random old person. Pretty much every other DL-level celeb death was either sudden or kept their health issues quiet.

[Bibliogryphon 9,569]

Tomorrow will be 82 days since the last hit which was the length of time between the second and third hits.

 

So if this is a pattern we are due a pair of hits any day

 

Last summer we had a gap of 151 days between hits 7 & 8 April to September

[Bibliogryphon 9,569]

On the years that have been included on my graph. The latest date for a fifth hit was 6th August in 2014.

 

However the latest date for a sixth hit goes out to 7th December in 2011 when there were only 7 hits

 

[MortalCaso 1,624]

Avalanche of notable deaths this week. None for the DL. Is this the end of the storm or the beginning?

[Captain Hemlock 737]

On 31/12/2021 at 18:00, Captain Hemlock said:

Dick van Dyke at number 1? That makes no sense.

 

Pele and Jerry Lee Lewis were no brainers. Nichelle Nichols should have been a lock.

I usually don't call them right, but I did think Nichelle Nichols was the biggest miss on this year's deathlist

[Cropsy 42]

Dick Van Dyke still going at his age is insane, considering he was an alcoholic at one point.

[Bibliogryphon 9,569]

Looking at my spreadsheet.

 

If we get another hit it will be the latest fifth hit in the year of the 13 years recorded on my spreadsheet. Previous latest was 2014 with Day 218 (6th August)

 

Just gone back to check on all lists since the 50 limit was decided on only two fifth deaths have been later
 

1997 Mother Theresa (4th September)

2010 Cyril Smith (3rd September)

[msc 18,436]

26 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

Looking at my spreadsheet.

 

If we get another hit it will be the latest fifth hit in the year of the 13 years recorded on my spreadsheet. Previous latest was 2014 with Day 218 (6th August)

 

Just gone back to check on all lists since the 50 limit was decided on only two fifth deaths have been later
 

1997 Mother Theresa (4th September)

2010 Cyril Smith (3rd September)

 

If we get to August 30th, we will equal last years long gap.

[DoorSlammer 561]

On 17/08/2022 at 14:56, msc said:

 

If we get to August 30th, we will equal last years long gap.

Maybe it's a stupid question, but now that Gorbachev became a hit, does that mean we did or did not equal last year's gap?

[msc 18,436]

2 minutes ago, DoorSlammer said:

Maybe it's a stupid question, but now that Gorbachev became a hit, does that mean we did or did not equal last year's gap?

 

We didn't, because if my fag pack calculations are correct, the post above had an error, and its actually an 148 day gap, rather than 150 days as last year.

[Bibliogryphon 9,569]

[msc 18,436]

Oh very well, the annual September watch list. 

 

1. Henry Kissinger  - looked very frail on Newsnight the other night.

2. Angela Lansbury - according to the fan mail community, who are as good at stalking as TMZ, now in declined health

3. Bob Barker - Was in and out of hospital due to age related illnesses before pandemic. How is he still alive?

4. Alan Greenspan - Dull pick, but Reptile is convinced he's dying.

5. Nigel Starmer-Smith - Looked a corpse in December. Still breathing, somehow.

6. Jimmy Carter - Long surpassed the usual expiry date for Presidents, and beaten up the Reaper several times now. Borrowed time, or sign of immortality?

7. Leslie Philips - Frail old man though possible not as frail as some on the list, given his longevity!

8. Desmond Morris - Oldest newcomer on the list, a fatal condition in the last decade!

9. Ted Kaczyinski - Surely destined to live and give me nightmares on TCD23, but also allegedly has terminal cancer

10. James Whale - Seems far too healthy for terminal cancer, but so did Bill Turnbull a few months ago.

11. Jacques Delors - Missed his big bash last year, meant to be very frail.

12. Denis Law - An outlier given age and recency of diagnosis, but he looked like shit in his last TV appearance so a quick downturn would not surprise.

13. Burt Bacharach - Another incredible frail old person.

14. Bill Treacher - Already wheelchair bound/retired/frail, lost a number of friends this year and didn't seem to make any public comments, which is odd.

15. Norman Tebbit - Ulitzer said he looked like shit and probably wouldn't see 2023. 

16. Pele - Is selling near death like he sold SPAM.

17. Douglas Hurd - Has spent the last decade being so frail and unwell, its a surprise he's still going

18. Marianne Faithful - COPD, fucked lungs, post-covid, needs oxygen and in nursing home. Not long left.

19. Linda Ronstadt - I picked Robbie Rensenbrink in the DDP because 7 years was the limit for PSP. Ronstadt is now in Year 9. 

20. Shane MacGowan - It's Shane MacGowan

 

If we get more hits in the last 4 months of the year, I suspect they''ll come from this shortlist. Potential, yes, but a large number of 50/50s at best too. Now watch this lot all celebrate Hogmanay, while Harry Belafonte dies in his sleep over the weekend!

[Deathtreat23 189]

2 hours ago, msc said:

Oh very well, the annual September watch list. 

 

1. Henry Kissinger  - looked very frail on Newsnight the other night.

2. Angela Lansbury - according to the fan mail community, who are as good at stalking as TMZ, now in declined health

3. Bob Barker - Was in and out of hospital due to age related illnesses before pandemic. How is he still alive?

4. Alan Greenspan - Dull pick, but Reptile is convinced he's dying.

5. Nigel Starmer-Smith - Looked a corpse in December. Still breathing, somehow.

6. Jimmy Carter - Long surpassed the usual expiry date for Presidents, and beaten up the Reaper several times now. Borrowed time, or sign of immortality?

7. Leslie Philips - Frail old man though possible not as frail as some on the list, given his longevity!

8. Desmond Morris - Oldest newcomer on the list, a fatal condition in the last decade!

9. Ted Kaczyinski - Surely destined to live and give me nightmares on TCD23, but also allegedly has terminal cancer

10. James Whale - Seems far too healthy for terminal cancer, but so did Bill Turnbull a few months ago.

11. Jacques Delors - Missed his big bash last year, meant to be very frail.

12. Denis Law - An outlier given age and recency of diagnosis, but he looked like shit in his last TV appearance so a quick downturn would not surprise.

13. Burt Bacharach - Another incredible frail old person.

14. Bill Treacher - Already wheelchair bound/retired/frail, lost a number of friends this year and didn't seem to make any public comments, which is odd.

15. Norman Tebbit - Ulitzer said he looked like shit and probably wouldn't see 2023. 

16. Pele - Is selling near death like he sold SPAM.

17. Douglas Hurd - Has spent the last decade being so frail and unwell, its a surprise he's still going

18. Marianne Faithful - COPD, fucked lungs, post-covid, needs oxygen and in nursing home. Not long left.

19. Linda Ronstadt - I picked Robbie Rensenbrink in the DDP because 7 years was the limit for PSP. Ronstadt is now in Year 9. 

20. Shane MacGowan - It's Shane MacGowan

 

If we get more hits in the last 4 months of the year, I suspect they''ll come from this shortlist. Potential, yes, but a large number of 50/50s at best too. Now watch this lot all celebrate Hogmanay, while Harry Belafonte dies in his sleep over the weekend!

Well Betty White did pass away in the dying hours of 2021 on New Years Eve so that last comment is entirely possible!