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Derby Dead Pool 2024

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Jerry West was last picked in 2022, so one for the Lotm

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Minor note of interest: if Jane McAlevey dies before October 12, and Esther Rantzen dies naturally of cancer rather than taking the TGV to Dignitas, then myself, Banana and Perhaps would all be tied on 112 at the top. Am I right in remembering tie breaks are decided by most hits (in which case Banana would be third) and then average age of hits (in which case it'd come down to McAlevey (59) and Keith (62) for me vs Draper (56) and Myers (66) for Perhaps, giving me the win by one year). 

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1 hour ago, Spade_Cooley said:

Minor note of interest: if Jane McAlevey dies before October 12, and Esther Rantzen dies naturally of cancer rather than taking the TGV to Dignitas, then myself, Banana and Perhaps would all be tied on 112 at the top. Am I right in remembering tie breaks are decided by most hits (in which case Banana would be third) and then average age of hits (in which case it'd come down to McAlevey (59) and Keith (62) for me vs Draper (56) and Myers (66) for Perhaps, giving me the win by one year). 

If my joker Beccy Barr dies (20 points) I only need that QO for Cavanagh to come through and tiebreak won't be an issue...:P:ninja:

I also have Rantzen and Kamolvisit.

I think only 3 of the top 20 still have jokers in play.

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On 06/01/2024 at 16:16, Clorox Bleachman said:

Simon Cowell (TV guy with uncanny face) | People edited photos to make it look like he was seriously ill or dead and Sinitta fell for it LOL. 1/10

There seems to have been a mixup for this team, as the website has it down as Wildlife SOS Simon Cowell, where as Clorox seemingly meant X-Factor Simon Cowell.

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4 hours ago, Spade_Cooley said:

Minor note of interest: if Jane McAlevey dies before October 12, and Esther Rantzen dies naturally of cancer rather than taking the TGV to Dignitas, then myself, Banana and Perhaps would all be tied on 112 at the top. Am I right in remembering tie breaks are decided by most hits (in which case Banana would be third) and then average age of hits (in which case it'd come down to McAlevey (59) and Keith (62) for me vs Draper (56) and Myers (66) for Perhaps, giving me the win by one year). 

 

Certainly getting tighter at the top. I thought at one stage that Banana was going to piss it.

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I believe I've reached my peak at second place. Mutombo was a punt due to the lack of information, Scolyer's glioblastoma seems to be in control for now and gobshite James Whale will never fucking die. I also think Theo Burrell will be a 2025 death.

 

A Caveney or Doering death would be very welcome at this point!

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7 hours ago, Commtech Sio Bibble said:

There seems to have been a mixup for this team, as the website has it down as Wildlife SOS Simon Cowell, where as Clorox seemingly meant X-Factor Simon Cowell.

Good spot, I'll make the correction soon (not tonight, but soon).

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I have 13 names left for the year:

Tom Baker (90) - I have no idea why I have chosen him to my team. Old and fragile, but surely could survive the year. 15% chance of death this year.

Theo Burrell (37) - Will be gone this year or next. No long future with her. 50% chance of death this year.

Jimmy Carter (99) - Old and fragile. Also has terminal illness. Will he see 100? Maybe. Kind of 50/50 with him. 50% chance of death this year.

Stephen Darby (35) - ALS will take you down. Usually within 2 years. He has survived almost 6 years. Will be gone in few years. 25% chance of death this year.

Shannen Doherty (53) - A lot of cancer in her, latest update saying her cure is working and it is a miracle. I don't believe in that kind of miracles. Will be gone in few years. 30% chance of death this year.

Pope Francis (87) - Old, but not that fragile. Probably a wasted pick. 5% chance of death this year.

Dolph Lundgren (66) - Lucky to be alive according to the man himself, but I think this is a wasted pick. But with cancer you may never know for sure. 5% chance of death this year.

Steve McMichael (66) - Looks like shit. ALS since 2021. Will be gone in few years. 50% chance of death this year.

Patrick Murray (67) - Cancer has spread. Not very much information on him, but clearly will be gone in few years. 30% chance of death this year.

Linda Nolan (65) - Has had cancer for almost 20 years. I think neither god or devil wants her. 20% chance of death this year.

Esther Ranzen (83, soon 84) - Delaying the cancer has worked, but this is not a cure. Assisted suicide is still on the table. 30% chance of death this year.

James Whale (73) - Really? I have no fucking idea. 40% chance of death this year.

Bruce Willis (69) - With his diagnosis, people usually live 6-8 years. He has this diagnosis for 2 years now. Probably a wasted pick, but might be gone around 2027-2030. 10% chance of death this years.

 

So as I see it, I got 7 hits within the first 6 months and now might struggle to get 1-2 with the remaining years. FML

 

 

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With 6.5 months left of the year, and with 4/20 on my team dead, here is my analysis for my remaining 16 picks:

 

Tim Bilton: Terminal cancer since 2020, but could possibly see the year out. 45%

Jimmy Carter: In hospice since 2023, old and wheelchair bound. Will he see the centennial mark? 100%

Shannen Doherty: Stage IV breast cancer since 2020, seems to be responding well to treatment. Could die this year or next. 35%

Roberta Flack: ALS for almost two years and forced to retire from singing. You never know if she will go before end of the year. 60%

Steve McMichael: Motor Neurone disease since 2021, and wheelchair bound. Could be gone before the end of the year. 70%

Lee Meriwether: Will she, won't she? 20%

Sam Neill: Lymphoma since last year, and outlived his prognosis. Probably another wasted pick, but will be gone around 2026-2028. 20%

Linda Nolan: Cancer for almost 20 years. Not looking bad at a recent event. 30%

Isabel Peron: Immortal by my acclaim. 10%

Larry Pressler: Pancreatic cancer since 2021. Normally the prognosis for this disease is not promising, but he seems to be in good shape. 30%

Esther Rantzen: Treatment for cancer has worked, but assisted suicide is a possibility. 80%

Nigel Starmer-Smith: Frontotempal dementia and bedridden since 2021. I'd be surprised if this is the year he actually goes. 75%

Barbra Streisand: Yet another wasted pick. will see the year out. 10%

James Whale: How the fuck is he still alive? 50%

Bruce Willis: Dementia since 2023. Another wasted pick, but you never know what may happen. 20%

Joanne Woodward: Alzheimer's for over a decade. In hospice care, and not seen in public life since then. 95%

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Aye, well - I've got 14 survivors currently in play

 

Quick run over the form book: 

 

Saif al-Adel (64) - wanted terrorist, long shot to point he's a unique pick for me, haven't a clue about chances

Tim Bilton (52?) - more likely to see year out than not, but nor a well man. Just shy of 40 DDP picks

Jimmy Carter (99) - Amazed at his tenacity, best guess, he delivers this year but might just see 100 first

Noam Chomsky (95) - Nailed on and soon, IMHO

Shannon Doherty (54) - Another tease with a few years of form, I'm thinking more likely than not to pay off in 2024, but it's marginal

Steve McMichael (66) - Pretty much the same as Doherty above - so I reckon at least one of them delivers

Linda Nolan (65) - I'm not the only one to make this mistake this year, she'll party well into the early hours of 2025 IMHO

Yoko Ono (91) - Tougher than anyone thought, more likely than not to see the year out, but, again, a passable punt

Amy Price (?) - "Jordan's" mum, a wildcard, clearly ill, extent of which remains unknown, haven't a clue on chances

Prunella Scales (almost 92) - If she was that ill in most UK homes she'd be gone already, fair play to the love and support she gets, more likely than not to have the last laugh on us this year

Yahya Sinwar (?) - currently holed up in a tunnel surrounded by Israeli hostages, hot as fuck above and the rats and rubbish are making things worse. Nine of us believe the IDF may hang on until he's gone, marginal chances

Nigel Starmer-Smith (79) - A drop 40 this year for good reasons, but schooled in a tough sport and hanging on beyond some expectations, more likely to survive 2024 than not, but no surprise if he goes

Donald Trump (78) - Amazed he continues, frankly, non-smoker/non drinker but almost everything else by way of life choices is bad for his health, and that's before you consider how many people might shoot him. Best guess, major health emergency closer than his supporters think, but the Grim Reaper may have to wait

Khaleda Zia (78 or 79) - The Wikipedia section on her health problems is a veritable dead poolers wank fest that's motivated four of us to punt on her this year. Secretive and manipulative  to the point her own birthdate remains hotly disputed, but clearly unwell. Another marginal punt, but some of them will pay off.

 

Best guess, the majority of my 20 cash in this year, I'll be disappointed if I'm outside the top 40, amazed if it's anywhere inside the top 25

 

 

 

 

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