Thoughts On The 2024 List

[Lafaucheuse 4,055]

1 hour ago, Sean said:

What I would do as it stands if I was the committee next year.Keep:

Wouldn’t drop Aldrin who looked frailer than usual in his last appearance and he’s too big to miss at 95 next year. Raul Castro, Imelda Marcos, and Willie Nelson I’d keep to. I’d drop Turner, Barenboim, Eastwood and Morris instead. 
I’d bring back Liza Minelli, Emperor Akihito, Angie Dickinson (and Maybe Rondsadt ?) with the others you mentioned 

[Clorox Bleachman 2,459]

They'd be crazy to drop Whale and Nolan. They're in their 5th and 8th years respectively of having stage 4 cancer, with not even a hint of remission. It would be embarrassing to have a repeat of Shannen Doherty next year.

[Captain Hemlock 745]

25 minutes ago, Lafaucheuse said:

Wouldn’t drop Aldrin who looked frailer than usual in his last appearance and he’s too big to miss at 95 next year. Raul Castro, Imelda Marcos, and Willie Nelson I’d keep to. I’d drop Turner, Barenboim, Eastwood and Morris instead. 
I’d bring back Liza Minelli, Emperor Akihito, Angie Dickinson (and Maybe Rondsadt ?) with the others you mentioned 

I’m not sure why you think Angie Dickinson is a good pick. She strikes me as being a female version of Robert Duvall, someone in their early 90’s with no known health issues.

[Lafaucheuse 4,055]

8 minutes ago, Captain Hemlock said:

I’m not sure why you think Angie Dickinson is a good pick. She strikes me as being a female version of Robert Duvall, someone in their early 90’s with no known health issues.

Don’t know Why but she strikes me as the kind who could die soon… just a gut feeling, but I have the Same with Bardot 

[msc 18,491]

Oh, very well.

 

KEEP

1.      Jimmy Carter

2.      Dick van Dyke

3.      Pete Murray

4.      Alan Greenspan (very boring but they aren't going to drop him)

5.      Francis (too frequently unwell and frail to drop imo)

6.      Cleo Laine

7.      Sandy Gall

8.      Noam Chomsky

9.      Robert Wagner (COPD)

10.  Mel Brooks

11.  Dennis Skinner

12.  Nigel Starmer Smith

13.  James Whale (with him and Nolan, I agree with people who find them boring and also with Clorox)

14.  Stanley Baxter

15.  Joanne Woodward

16.  Patricia Routledge (would have said drop till I saw her clear signs of decline last month)

17.  Clint Eastwood

18.  Gene Hackman

19.  Jean Marie le Pen

20.  Linda Nolan

21.  Norman Tebbit

22.  Willie Nelson 

23.  Esther Rantzen

24.  Roberta Flack

25.  Buzz Aldrin (should be a DL mainstay now even in a disaster.)

 

RETURN

1.      David Attenborough (A-list and really really old)

2.      Douglas Hurd (big name politician who has been out of the public eye due to ill health for over a decade)

3.      Liza Minelli (clearly declining health)

4.      Ozzy Osbourne (76 at Christmas if he makes it and slowing down rapidly now)

5.      Yoko Ono (frail health, Lewy Body for a decade in 2025)

 

NEW

1.      June Spencer (she's really old and famous enough for the list. That's it.)

2.      Eva Marie Saint (A list actress)

3.      Vera Miles

4.      Rupert Murdoch (seems to be slowing down)

5.      William Shatner ("I totally beat Stage IV cancer!" "Awesome, Bill, now just pop onto our list.")

6.      Joel Grey (said to be in frail health)

7.      Jean Marsh (house bound due to stroke/health issues)

8.      Alan Bennett (very frail on BBC earlier this year, had the circling the drain look)

9.      Julie Goodyear (notably ill)

10.  Michael York (has been very ill for over a decade and on prognosis ought to be dead by now. Also, couldn't resist the 3 Cabaret stars together.)

11.  Geoff Boycott (cancer, frequent setbacks)

12.  Sophie Kinsella (terminal cancer, annoying books, more famous than Genesis Porridge and more sick, too.)

13.  Jose Mujica (old, frail and ill)

14.  David Irving (old, frail, ill and shit)

15.  Charles III (he's the bloody King and he's got cancer)

16.  John Prescott (very quiet after massive stroke, recently fully retired, and Labour folk who often blab are keeping his privacy)

17.  Joan Plowright (Maggie Smith was concerned about how ill she was...5 years ago.)

18.  Frankie Valli (notably frail and frequently unwell)

19.  James Watson (the DNA guy this forum tell me is very frail and old)

20.  Lady Antonia Fraser (old, frail and sick)

 

DROP

1.      Ethel Kennedy

2.      Vanessa Redgrave

3.      Desmond Morris

4.      Hans Blix

5.      Julie Walters

6.      Tom Brokaw

7.      Louis Farrakhan

8.      Daniel Barenboim

9.      Dick Cheney

10.  Prunella Scales

11.  Robert Duvall

12.  Denis Law

13.  Joseph Fritzl

14.  Brigitte Bardot

15.  Raul Castro

16.  Imelda Marcos

17.  Ted Turner

18..  Sonny Rollins

19. Joe Bugner

20.  Sly Stone

21.  Tom Baker

 

[En Passant 3,745]

8 minutes ago, msc said:

KEEP 

25.  Buzz Aldrin (should be a DL mainstay now even in a disaster.)

 

9 minutes ago, msc said:

DROP

18.  Buzz Aldrin

 

This is how I do my lists. And probably why I never win much

[msc 18,491]

37 minutes ago, En Passant said:

 

 

This is how I do my lists. And probably why I never win much

 

An excellent peak into my brain at the moment! 

 

I'd axed too many people so Buzz got a reprieve, then forgot to take himself off the Drop list. That's my excuse anyway. 

[MortalCaso 1,630]

Dropping Fritzl feels like a Kacyznski situation.

 

They put him on the list, he will likely die within 2-3 years. Why bother taking him off now?

[drol 12,029]

Droppable names:

 

Pope Francis (fragile health, but could be fine for some more years)

Sandy Gall (will probably go, but who really cares if he is not on the list? calculated risk)

Robert Wagner (doing fine, despite COPD and decrepitude)

Nigel Starmer-Smith (at this point he can cling on years. Beside that, he would not be that hell of a miss)

Vanessa Redgrave (despite all her moans, doing fine)

Julie Walters (the obvious drop)

Linda Nolan (take the risk, after all she is an attention seeker)

Louis Farrakhan (sadly doing very well)

Dick Cheney (no issues for a while)

Brigitte Bardot (doing well)

Ted Turner (still doing very well, will likely see 88/89)

Sly Stone (no specific health issues, too young)

Tom Baker (doing well)

Joe Bugner (too young, a risk to take)

 

I'd keep Castro as he seemed quite thinner at his last appearance. The reality is many of the drops will die anyway, so good luck.

[tracy 2,449]

I don't really have any strong feelings about who stays on the list or not. "You can't drop James Whale, he looks fine now but he's still got cancer." Normally I'd agree, but there aren't many good drops anyway. Like, let's say you cut Duvall (which I would endorse) for Whale, and then Duvall trips over his shoelaces and dies. A few deaths like that are bound to happen, but I'd take it as long as we surpass 4/50, which should likely just happen by default.

 

I'd like to see some riskier drops, on that note. They were willing to ignore Attenborough for two years, despite his age and the fact that he's the most too-big-to-miss person in existence. Misses are rarely that logical, anyway. Just look at 2023's.

[Lafaucheuse 4,055]

Well, as everyone is doing it now and I have nothing better to do of my day… 

 

Keep : 

Carter

DVD

Greenspan

Ethel Kennedy

Cleo Laine

Noam Chomsky

Mel Brooks

Dennis Skinner

Starmer-Smith 

Whale

Baxter 

Woodward

Hackman

Le Pen

Law

Nolan

Norman Tebbitt

Willie Nelson 

Esther Rantzen

Roberta Flack

Castro

Marcos

Buzz Aldrin

Sonny Rollins

 

 

Drops : 

Pete Murray

Robert Wagner 

Routledge

Eastwood

Redgrave

Morris

Blix

Walters

Brokaw

Louis Farrakhan 

Barenboim 

Dick Cheney

Robert Duvall

Josef Fritzl

Ted Turner

Sly Stone

Tom Baker

Joe Bugner

 

those I can't decide on and who I hope will stay in the event we have a few more hits in the keep section : 

Pope Francis : frail and old, but not in immediate danger for me, but he's the pope so I wouldn't mind if he stays in… 

Sandy Gall : could be a drop because I don't care and I feel like I'm not the only one, though he's old and unheard off apparently 

Prunella Scales : looks great but 8th appearance on DL, they won't drop her and at that age and with that illness, I understand them

Brigitte Bardot : sounded frail in her interviews for her birthday, she said herself that she was not her best and the fact she refuses medicine at that age is a bad idea imo

 

bring back : 

Liza Minelli

Emperor Akihito 

Douglas Hurd

David Attenborough

Angie Dickinson 

Yoko Ono 

 

Add : 

Amartya Sen : old, frail, wheelchairbound, few death hoaxes in the last few years, would suggest something is on… 

Eva Marie Saint : why is she not on the dam list ?

Tippi Hedren : dementia sufferer, unable to remember her Hollywood career, a must for 2025

Vera Miles : classic Hollywood pick, between her and Kim Novak I'd choose the oldest

Frank Gehry : far too underrated pick imo, recently interviewed in France : has lost a good amount of weight and looks real old… 

Franki Valli : frail, old, famous 

Don King : recent health problem suggest he might go sooner than later

Quincy Jones : old legend, quite overlooked imo

Joan Plowright : as discussed, supposedly ill and old

Paul Biya : that's Paul Biya, oldest working head of state and very DL pick imo, recently absent from the OIF summit which raised questions concerning his health

Michael Tilson Thomas : classic ill pick

King Salman : supposedly really ill, now beginning to be real old too, can't see why not

Jose Mujica : ill, frail, forum-favorite at this point

Lee Grant : 99 A list actress, her and Eva Marie Saint deserves a spot for their age and fame

Sidney Cook : old, frail, supposed to be already dead 

Judi Dench : I always thought she looked frailish, wouldn't bet 100% on her dying next year but wouldn't bet 100% she'll survive the year also

June Spencer : apparently British legend who's far too old to be overlooked once again

Léontyne Price : Opera legend, now really old, that's all unfortunately, I'm guessing she's gonna be ignored once again though

Georges Soros : old, obese, has looked like a corpse for the last 10 years imo, would be time he makes his debut 

… and Bernadette Chirac  : why not ? the fact she's still alive is a miracle in itself, it's not taking too much risk with this one 

[SovietJohnny 95]

On 05/10/2024 at 17:54, Lafaucheuse said:

I get that the 25 new candidate rule is useful but it’s quite frustrating, 21 candidates to drop is a huge amount and I expect several drops to die next year. Therefore the score of a  list is determined by how good the previous list has been which is frustrating. Maybe 10 new candidates is enough ?

You sound like a Tory/Reform supporter…no questioning the rules/system whatsoever until the year it bites you on the arse

[Bibliogryphon 9,597]

Updating my charts I have the following observations. 

1. The 2024 list has now drawn level with the disastrous 2011 list but that list did not get its sixth hit until Dec 7th.

2. The next worst list of recent times 2014 finished on 10 Hits but at this stage if the year was on 7 Hits with the eighth coming on day 294 (10 days)

3. The 2020 list was at 14 Hits by this stage of the year

4. The most deaths that have been Hits on the list in the remaining part of the year is 6 so double figures is achievable 

[Bobytomi 125]

I was wondering who would be #1 on the list next year, I imagine it would be Jimmy Carter, but if he became a hit before January, would Dick Van Dyke be #1 again or would they give that spot to Noam Chomsky or Joanne Woodward? who seem also be one of the first-class immortals.

 

Although I can see Dick Van Dyke at #1 if Noam and Joanne became a hits it too before the year is out, next year DVD will turn 100 years.

[Comped 533]

3 hours ago, Bobytomi said:

I was wondering who would be #1 on the list next year, I imagine it would be Jimmy Carter, but if he became a hit before January, would Dick Van Dyke be #1 again or would they give that spot to Noam Chomsky or Joanne Woodward? who seem also be one of the first-class immortals.

 

Although I can see Dick Van Dyke at #1 if Noam and Joanne became a hits it too before the year is out, next year DVD will turn 100 years.

Dick will likely stay #1 if Jimmy dies, but I could see him getting bumped down a few steps because he is otherwise in good health and not really deserving of #1 if Jimmy or Noam are still alive.

[The Unknown Man 588]

One month to go and still no sixth hit. If no one else on the 2024 list dies before December 7th, the 2024 list will fall behind the 2011 list.

[livingbygrace 371]

26 minutes ago, The Unknown Man said:

One month to go and still no sixth hit. If no one else on the 2024 list dies before December 7th, the 2024 list will fall behind the 2011 list.

I always enjoy your statistic analogies of how the year is going in comparison to previous years. Just want to let you know your work in this area is recognized and appreciated.

[Mango 185]

My own theory for the low score thus far is that Jimmy staying alive has cockblocked the List.

[sodoffbaldrick 37]

This list started out extremely promising in January, but it's not that surprising that the list underperformed. 2020 eliminated a lot of the less healthy celebrities thanks to the pandemic. The survivors were, in general, slightly healthier than people the same age a few years ago, so they tend to live longer than their predecessors. Eventually the pandemics effects on the general health of the older population will dissipate and we will get back to a more normal death rate, but it will probably take another couple years. 

[BeretBleu 138]

is it the worst score ever ?

[drol 12,029]

That's yer lot for this year. I thought there could be one more, but all of them are doing better than usual.

 

This year has been a cosmic joke. Never had so many picks staggering on the brink of death and almost none of them oblige. Jimmy is Jimmy.

 

DVD went from unsinkable to extremely frail in a minute. Laine is rotting. Chomsky was dead for a night. Woodward...is she even alive? Whale, Nolan have been dying for decades now. Hackman looked like he was taken from the coffin in March. Law has disappeared from the face of Earth. JMLP is still in hospital. Brokaw is wheelchair bound and decrepit. So is Tebbit. Eastwood and Scales buried their partners. Marcos got in ICU with pneumonia. Castro was rumoured dead for days.

 

Makes no sense at all.