gcreptile 10,966 Posted October 24 15 hours ago, lilham said: I think Madison Square Garden is just because it's such a big iconic arena and he likes grandiose gestures, whereas the others would relate more to the specific state. It's Madison Square Garden because of Nazis: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1939_Nazi_rally_at_Madison_Square_Garden That's Stephen Miller's idea. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gcreptile 10,966 Posted October 24 Polling is in a terrible state, currently. The pollsters are in a panic because they missed Trump's win in 2016, overstimated Biden in 2020, and then underestimated blue votes in 2022. Republicans have also flooded the zone with affiliated outfits. They did it in 2022, too. They predicted a "red wave" when in fact, it was a small blue wave. In a way, the polling this year is very useless. It's pretty 50:50 anyway, and no serious pollster wants to be wrong again. I think Harris takes it. I see 2012, 2016 and 2022 in here. 2012 because Harris is like Obama's 2nd term and Trump is now as much establishment as Romney back then. You also have high engagement from women and new demographics that are hard to poll - which is why the polls missed Arizona and Georgia going blue pretty easily with governors and senators. But then Republicans are learning to vote early. So Nevada, for example, looks good for them. But you also have North Carolina, where the Republican candidate for governor there is so terrible that he may take Trump down with him. Structurally, Harris is closer to the win by one state in my opinion. That's not much at all. I suspect that election day voting however will give a boost to Harris. 2 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gcreptile 10,966 Posted October 24 11 hours ago, MortalCaso said: Unfortunately, it seems as though Trump will win. Democrats take the House + Republicans take the Senate. Trump wins NC/GA/AZ. PA being a true coin flip will go Trump's way. Rest go Harris. Trump will declare victory prematurely which complicates things. No true winner declared until the weekend. If seems as though they learned nothing from 2016 with unjustly selecting a party nominee. Really can't stand the idea of 4 more years under Trump. Hope I am wrong! PA will go Harris. If there's a "blue wall" state that flips, it's Wisconsin. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sodoffbaldrick 36 Posted October 24 I'm Canadian. My opinion is that who "wins: the election isn't actually going to matter in the end and the true losers will be the American people and their biggest loss will be of their democracy. If we assume Harris wins the election... Trump will declare that the election was stolen, his staunchest allies will rise up and the country will be in a state of mass insurrection. His supporters will intimidate the election officials, some of whom are Trump sympathizers already, into declaring false results in favour of Trump, Some of his judges and the corrupt Supreme Court will rule in his favour. Trump takes the Presidency despite losing the election and turns the military and justice system against his enemies, ending democracy as the Americans know it. If we assume Trump wins the election the right wing courts will rule, rightly or wrongly that Trump won fairly. He will shut down the investigations into his past illegal activities and start prosecuting his opponents and ends democracy as the American's know it. Given Trumps age and his desire for la legacy I suspect he will declare himself Emperor and make it a hereditary title so that his children will rule after he dies. I don't think he will declare himself dictator for life because of his desire for complete control and what better way to assert control than to set up his preferred successor as Emperor when he dies. I think he will chose Emperor because it sounds more impressive than King. He will join the ranks of those he admires, Putin, Kim, Xi, and i would not be surprised if he decides to annex Mexico for cheap labour and Canada over water rights as the ongoing droughts in the American Southwest are going to make the Great Lakes an extremely important source of fresh water that can be diverted to his nation. He will give Europe to Russia due to his admiration of Putin, Taiwan to China and South Korea to North Korea. Withdraw and close American military bases around the world and let his friends divide thigs as they like amongst themselves. Yes I'm very pessimistic about the future. 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sly Ronnie 879 Posted October 24 1 hour ago, sodoffbaldrick said: I'm Canadian. My opinion is that who "wins: the election isn't actually going to matter in the end and the true losers will be the American people and their biggest loss will be of their democracy. If we assume Harris wins the election... Trump will declare that the election was stolen, his staunchest allies will rise up and the country will be in a state of mass insurrection. His supporters will intimidate the election officials, some of whom are Trump sympathizers already, into declaring false results in favour of Trump, Some of his judges and the corrupt Supreme Court will rule in his favour. Trump takes the Presidency despite losing the election and turns the military and justice system against his enemies, ending democracy as the Americans know it. If we assume Trump wins the election the right wing courts will rule, rightly or wrongly that Trump won fairly. He will shut down the investigations into his past illegal activities and start prosecuting his opponents and ends democracy as the American's know it. Given Trumps age and his desire for la legacy I suspect he will declare himself Emperor and make it a hereditary title so that his children will rule after he dies. I don't think he will declare himself dictator for life because of his desire for complete control and what better way to assert control than to set up his preferred successor as Emperor when he dies. I think he will chose Emperor because it sounds more impressive than King. He will join the ranks of those he admires, Putin, Kim, Xi, and i would not be surprised if he decides to annex Mexico for cheap labour and Canada over water rights as the ongoing droughts in the American Southwest are going to make the Great Lakes an extremely important source of fresh water that can be diverted to his nation. He will give Europe to Russia due to his admiration of Putin, Taiwan to China and South Korea to North Korea. Withdraw and close American military bases around the world and let his friends divide thigs as they like amongst themselves. Yes I'm very pessimistic about the future. 4 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
En Passant 3,741 Posted October 24 1 hour ago, sodoffbaldrick said: I'm Canadian. <snip some "yikes really?"> Yes I'm very pessimistic about the future. Do you think Canada is far enough away? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Old Crem 3,583 Posted October 24 Trump is probably too polarising to become a dictator or do anything long changing to the basics of the 2028 election onwards. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
La Tombe 353 Posted October 24 The American electoral system is clearly not a model to follow around the world. Yet, many countries watch every 4 years the election….but I personally find that their system doesn’t work. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sodoffbaldrick 36 Posted October 24 6 hours ago, En Passant said: Do you think Canada is far enough away? No Canada is doomed when Trump seizes power. I'd draw a parallel between the annexation of Austria by Hitler and Canada's future. Our leadership dithers far too much and our procurement efforts for our military are so ineffective these days that we ordered new jets in 2023 and won't get any until sometime in 2026 and won't have an operational squadron of them until 2029. The decision to buy these planes was originally made in 2010 but no one wanted to spend the money, even though we had been funding the development of this same plane since 1997. Our current fighter jets are from the early 1980's with many of those in use having been bought second hand from our allies. To the best of my knowledge our airforce is the least outdated segment of our military. We just bought winter camping gear for our soldiers that isn't suitable for use in Canadian winters as it won;t keep people warm enough. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dying Probably 578 Posted October 24 IMHO, one thing that I think is a big question mark over the election (and something we can concretely say afterwards exists/does not) is any "reverse coattail" effect. Gallego in Arizona, Rosen in Nevada, and Stein in North Carolina are all polling double digits clear of their R opponents, and in a swing state, that can be enough to drag top of the ticket across the line. Hence why it's much less obvious in states where it's less one-sided (i.e. Maine 2020 w/ Collins, Vermont 2020 w/ Scott, and Montana/Ohio this year). AZ/NV/NC could get some good numbers for KH just off the virtue of stronger downballot candidates. Even (to an extent) Casey in PA, Baldwin in WI, Slotkin in MI, Kaine in VA... At least we don't have to think about Florida this time. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lilham 752 Posted October 24 13 hours ago, gcreptile said: It's Madison Square Garden because of Nazis: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1939_Nazi_rally_at_Madison_Square_Garden That's Stephen Miller's idea. Well that's heart-warming. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Old Crem 3,583 Posted October 25 Apparently Trump might axe Federal Income Tax and rely only on Tariffs. Could cause major disruption to the world’s economy and not just the USA. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zsa Zsa's leg 884 Posted October 25 On 23/10/2024 at 12:56, The Old Crem said: I predict Trumo will win and win at least one state he didn’t win in 2016 like Nevada, Minnesota or Virginia. Nevada I agree with, but Minnesota and Virginia are not competitive this year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Old Crem 3,583 Posted October 25 The Washington Post not endorsing shows Bezos believes Trump is going to win. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
An Fear Beag 1,535 Posted October 26 On 24/10/2024 at 08:27, msc said: That said I am disagreeing with the Lichtman keys, the Consumer Confidence Index and the Misery index here which all favour Harris. You are also disagreeing with The Old Crem Index - the more strongly he makes a political prediction, the more likely there is to be a landslide in the opposite direction. On 23/10/2024 at 18:56, The Old Crem said: I predict Trump will win and win at least one state he didn’t win in 2016 like Nevada, Minnesota or Virginia. Based purely on this, I confidently predict that Harris will win all 50 states, along with Congress, the Senate, the Irish General election, the Superbowl, the Nevada state Lottery, and the raffle down at her local pub. 10 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
En Passant 3,741 Posted October 27 Dear Americans... Quote No, the Democrats are not scaring themselves unnecessarily. Right now the whole world should have a sick feeling of impending doom, as if there’s a runaway train coming around the corner and there’s no way of avoiding it. Because Donald Trump is that train, and according to polls, he might emerge the winner. Along with JD Vance, his potentially more dangerous (because he’s much younger and smarter) heir apparent, with Elon Musk’s immense wealth and social media reach riding shotgun. Trump is an ignorant, incoherent, self-absorbed psychotic, a man who, according to his former chief of staff, General John Kelly, admires Hitler and fits the definition of “fascist”. The orange idiot shouldn’t be allowed anywhere near a position of responsibility, let alone one in which he will be completely free, aided by a complicit Supreme Court, to wreak havoc on America and the rest of the world economically, socially, and militarily. There is a MAGA madness abroad in America, an affliction that combines gullibility with rank political opportunism, a voter base built around shameless lies, conspiracy theories, and Fox News propaganda. Kamala Harris may not be a big-picture stateswoman, but, unlike her opponent, she has not, as happened last week, been diagnosed as a malignant narcissist by more than 200 psychiatrists and mental health professionals. Apart from the MAGA mob, the only people cheering Trump on are his fellow despots from around the world, for they would be delighted to welcome the classic “useful idiot” to their burgeoning club, someone who will roll over and do whatever they want in exchange for a great big dollop of flattery. Trump is a small-minded, incredibly insecure reality show host whose enormous ego needs constant stroking in order to help him forget his life as a perennial loser. The only possible way to derail that train is for voters to show that they value their democracy, their laws, institutions and constitution, their personal liberty, the country’s safety and international peace and security…and the ability to vote again. There is no choice on November 5, for Trump should never, ever have been part of that choice. He is the true “enemy within”. Quote shamelessly stolen from a BTL Guardian comment. Vote Harris. 5 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
En Passant 3,741 Posted October 27 Oh, and @Mango? Nobody needs to call you an idiot. You appear to do just fine on that front without aid - or it's just a massive troll you think is amusing - though I don't personally think you're funny. Answer me this though, because I'm struggling to see it. Are you hoping Jimmy Carter lives forever? Or is your obsession with him because you are on the edge of a tumescent explosion that will occur when he finally does die? I ask because Carter is the absolute antithesis of Trump, a man about whom everything I have ever read states he has selflessly tried all his life to do good for others before himself. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mango 171 Posted October 27 You'd have to be an idiot to guilt-trip people into voting a certain way. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bentrovato 1,087 Posted October 27 If Trump wins, can he overturn all the guilty prosecutions of his mates? Save Giuliani from signing on for food stamps etc... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Old Crem 3,583 Posted October 27 1 hour ago, Bentrovato said: If Trump wins, can he overturn all the guilty prosecutions of his mates? Save Giuliani from signing on for food stamps etc... Yes he can pardon them all for criminal convictions. Not sure about Giuliani’s civil punishments. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joltin Joe 149 Posted October 27 50 minutes ago, The Old Crem said: Yes he can pardon them all for criminal convictions. Not sure about Giuliani’s civil punishments. He has no power whatsoever to pardon state crimes, only federal ones. 3 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gcreptile 10,966 Posted October 29 Looks like Trump's little Nazi rally was a little too close to the real thing. If it wasn't over before, it's definitely over now. 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BuffaloPhil 926 Posted October 29 My gut tells me that Harris wins relatively comfortably. What happens after that is anyone's guess however, and that's the bit that worries me. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mango 171 Posted October 29 21 hours ago, gcreptile said: Looks like Trump's little Nazi rally was a little too close to the real thing. 21 hours ago, gcreptile said: If it wasn't over before, it's definitely over now. 5 hours ago, BuffaloPhil said: My gut tells me that Harris wins relatively comfortably. Mine and Nate Silver's tells me that Trump wins relatively comfortably. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Old Crem 3,583 Posted October 29 I don’t see the rally having any effect on voters. Everyone has already long decided who they voting for . 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
