Political Discussions And Ranting Thread

[TQR 12,265]

9 minutes ago, msc said:

I suspect there may be some tactical voting, let alone a slightly larger labour lead.

Count me the fuck in with that (mostly because Greens haven’t got a hope in fuck in my area).

 

With Dr Death’s polling only 1% above end-game Truss’ earlier this week, he’s got more chance of plaiting his own piss than cutting Labour’s lead to 5% in a year or less.

[msc 17,780]

8 minutes ago, TQR said:

Count me the fuck in with that (mostly because Greens haven’t got a hope in fuck in my area).

 

With Dr Death’s polling only 1% above end-game Truss’ earlier this week, he’s got more chance of plaiting his own piss than cutting Labour’s lead to 5% in a year or less.

Yeah I think people's minds are made up. 

[The Old Crem 3,184]

11 hours ago, ThereWillBeDeaths7 said:

And now for a more political analysis of the elections today:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/19/far-right-party-for-freedom-gaining-in-polls-ahead-of-netherlands-election

 

- Polls indicate that about 15-18 parties will be seated in the new (150 member) parliament; most of which will struggle to get even 10 seats.

 

- The battle for the lead seems to go between four parties:

 

VVD: liberal-right party led by justice minister Dilan Yesilgöz-Zegerius, the party has led all Dutch governments since 2010 and has (sometimes deservedly) been criticized for major crises in the country: housing prices, income inequalities, migration overflow, declining trust in politics and much more. Anyway, most polls indicate they will lose multiple seats but they might still win the elections. Perhaps helped by their own created problems, more on that down below.

 

GL-PvdA: an alliance of Green Left and the Labour Party, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans. The political left has struggled to unite voters for years, with the last Labour cabinet ending in 2002. As the only party on the left with a chance to win, perhaps they can succeed - some uncertainty however as the two parties have existed besides eachother for decades, never combining before as they've done now. 

 

PVV: right-populist, anti-immigrant party founded and led by Geert Wilders since 2006. In the last couple of elections they managed to get between 15-17 seats but had no real chance of winning because all other major parties kept them out of formation talks. Well, guess what the VVD did at the start of this campaign: the PVV has gained about 10 seats in the most recent polls because of this decision.

 

NSC: New Social Contract, a new party led by parliamentarian Pieter Omtzigt, formerly of the christian party CDA. Promises major changes in governing policy and to improve the means of living drastically. Omtzigt founded his party at the end of summer and led the polls for a while, in the last week he is losing multiple seats in polls, amidst speculation and confusion as to whether he would like to be Prime Minister after the elections.

 

I'd say the following seems likely:

- VVD will probably win the elections, but only just with ~28 seats. GL-PvdA and PVV to come right behind them with ~26 seats each.

 

- NSC will be the fourth largest party, somewhere at about ~20 seats.

- even if Wilders manages to win the elections, the path to a PVV-led government seems difficult. Will be a large opposition party anyway.

With that seat lead I can see Wilders as PM. Through Denmark has had the third party provide the PM before. 

 

 

[The Old Crem 3,184]

‘VVD members, in a packed room at the Fokker Terminal in The Hague, were shocked following the publication of a first exit poll showing the far right Party for Freedom of Geert Wilders got the most seats, by a stretch.

“I expected the results to be closer together,” said Jelleke van Rantwijk, 44, from The Hague. “I thought the VVD would lose seats - that’s not a shock if you have been in power for 13 years. But the PVV is a shock: 35 votes versus 23. But nobody wants to go with him.”

Bart de Bart, 35, from The Hague, said: “It’s a feeling like when Trump won. We never expected it. The people who voted for him are the losers of globalism but he won’t do anything for them. If we close the borders, we will lose jobs.”

Manon Stevens, 49, from Breda, said: “It’s kind of historic. But how can he be the prime minister for Muslims? I’m very curious. There’s no rule that the biggest party is the prime minister. But I think this is the least clear result we have ever had.”

Martijn Kooijman, another VVD member, said: “To put it mildly, this is a disappointment. It’s only the exit poll: it’s not the count. I expected we would lose six seats but not this - this is a big drop. I hoped we would be bigger than GreenLeft/Labour.”

Would the VVD work in a Wilders government? “We can try it,” he said. “He does stand for something. It is what it is.”’

[ThereWillBeDeaths7 600]

23 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

With that seat lead I can see Wilders as PM. Through Denmark has had the third party provide the PM before. 

 

 

Yeah, fuck.

 

I still think it's gonna be difficult for Wilders to become PM. His party is projected to get 35 seats, they'll need 76 seats in their coalition for a majority.

 

GL-PvdA will never join the PVV in a coalition, VVD and NSC have shown a lot of restraint to serve in a cabinet with Wilders. So he'll need to get 40 seats from somewhere if he even wants to have a chance of becoming PM.

[The Old Crem 3,184]

5 minutes ago, ThereWillBeDeaths7 said:

Yeah, fuck.

 

I still think it's gonna be difficult for Wilders to become PM. His party is projected to get 35 seats, they'll need 76 seats in their coalition for a majority.

 

GL-PvdA will never join the PVV in a coalition, VVD and NSC have shown a lot of restraint to serve in a cabinet with Wilders. So he'll need to get 40 seats from somewhere if he even wants to have a chance of becoming PM.

I’m not sure about VVD. I could see them accepting him. 
 

I can’t see him accepting through being just a Minster underneath someone else. So if he part of the Goverment majority him and his party will be just supporters without Ministerial roles. 
 

I presume the fact it was not expected will cause a bigger effect than if it was predicted accurately by the Polls.

[ThereWillBeDeaths7 600]

3 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

I’m not sure about VVD. I could see them accepting him. 
 

I can’t see him accepting through being just a Minster underneath someone else. So if he part of the Goverment majority him and his party will be just supporters without Ministerial roles. 

It's not impossible, but important is that Yesilgöz and the VVD have said only yesterday: we won't make Wilders PM / won't join him in a coalition if his party is the largest.

 

GL-PvdA will also have difficulty to reach a majority, even with GL-PvdA, NSC and D66 they would need multiple small parties.

 

This will be a long formation once again, in which even a new VVD coalition isn't completely out of the question if the PVV can't get it done.

[The Old Crem 3,184]

3 minutes ago, ThereWillBeDeaths7 said:

It's not impossible, but important is that Yesilgöz and the VVD have said only yesterday: we won't make Wilders PM / won't join him in a coalition if his party is the largest.

 

GL-PvdA will also have difficulty to reach a majority, even with GL-PvdA, NSC and D66 they would need multiple small parties.

 

This will be a long formation once again, in which even a new VVD coalition isn't completely out of the question if the PVV can't get it done.

It feels like the VVD would be much more likely than GL-PVDA. GL-PVDA don’t have anywhere near enough allies. 

[TQR 12,265]

In a world that has recently suffered from Johnson and Trump and Bolsonaro, how the fuck do people in elections still look at their far-right populist lunatic candidate and think "yep, they'll take us to greatness"? Jesus fuckface Christ.

[The Old Crem 3,184]

48 minutes ago, TQR said:

In a world that has recently suffered from Johnson and Trump and Bolsonaro, how the fuck do people in elections still look at their far-right populist lunatic candidate and think "yep, they'll take us to greatness"? Jesus fuckface Christ.

People just don’t think and are attracted by their policies.
 

From looking on social media Wilders has been helped a bit by all the pro Palestine protests Europe wide shouting a shit ton-of anti Semitic and anti Western slogans. Particularly sensitive in a country that suffered greatly in the Holocaust.. 

[The Old Crem 3,184]

Yeşilgöz-Zegerius told Dutch media off stage it was unlikely the VVD would sit in a government under Wilders as prime minister.

“I have said that I don’t see that happening because Mr Wilders cannot form a majority,” she said. “But he has the lead, he is the big winner of the evening, and he needs to show if he can form a majority. I have said that I didn’t see that this country would have a leader who does not bring together all Dutch people, who is there for all of the Dutch, but above all I don’t see a majority forming”.

 

[TQR 12,265]

Meanwhile, on Wikipedia:

 

 

ICYMI

[TQR 12,265]

Breathe a sigh of relief everyone…when Rwanda ends up not happening, 30p Leenoch has an alternative…send all the migrants to the Orkney Islands.

[The Old Crem 3,184]

 

[TQR 12,265]

Something very fitting about his pants appearing to be on fire. Dorries’ tongue will be burnt to a crisp.

 

[The Old Crem 3,184]

Is it me or does Boris look somewhat unwell. 

[YoungWillz 19,149]

25 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

Is it me or does Boris look somewhat unwell. 

Yes, he has a huge unsightly growth on his left arm.

[The Old Crem 3,184]

 

[Toast 14,872]

[YoungWillz 19,149]

PMQs.

 

Starmer at his most relaxed, good pointed jokes and questions.

 

Sunak has just had his privileged arse handed to him handsomely.

[TQR 12,265]

One of Starmer's best PMQs performances, that. Smashed the Tories on their own ground: immigration and the economy.

 

Worth watching the whole thing but I've just fast forwarded to a bit at the end (not even Starmer's doing) that made me properly laugh:

 

 

[TQR 12,265]

Well, be fair to Dr Death, he has found some common ground for the British and Greek people to share.

 

[RoverAndOut 3,511]

1 hour ago, TQR said:

Well, be fair to Dr Death, he has found some common ground for the British and Greek people to share.

 

 

This caught my attention yesterday from Peston... 

 

 

 

 

 

[RoverAndOut 3,511]

And while I was finding that, saw this fitting tribute from Tim Shipman. Lot of similar sentiments today.

 

 

 

[DCI Frank Burnside 2,738]

Bojo the Clown up in front of the Covid Inquiry next week.