Derby Dead Pool 2016

[gcreptile 10,978]

Congratulations to the record breakers!

 

For me, the most important thing is that my A team The Love Boat finally has more hits than my B Team again, as it was supposed to be.

[RadGuy 1,614]

Congrats to everyone on their success!

 

I'm at 4 hits which I guess is decent for a debut team.

 

But the only competition I have hopes of winning is MHDP, which started 11 days ago, and I also have 4 hits. But I kind of fucked up on the joker, choosing older and less obitable Nakamatsu over Ford.

[Switch 141]

What a huge year this is for deadpooling.

Also, with Kris Travis gone I'm no longer the highest placed player whose joker is still alive.

[Switch 141]

Aye, after coming one point short in my debut year that milestone has been reached at long last.

 

Also - surely DDT has to have shattered the most points in a month record? By my reckoning, Plowright, Crowe, Feek joker, Davies, Ford, and Travis add up to 64 points.

Note to self: I'm likely in second place in the same ranking. Crowe (9) + Feek (10) + Ford (10) + Cruyff (8) + Travis joker (24) = 61 points

 

Also, I think DDT got 66 points (Plowright 9 + Crowe 9 + Feek 20 + Davies 6 + Ford 10 + Travis 12).

[msc 18,476]

 

Aye, after coming one point short in my debut year that milestone has been reached at long last.

 

Also - surely DDT has to have shattered the most points in a month record? By my reckoning, Plowright, Crowe, Feek joker, Davies, Ford, and Travis add up to 64 points.

Note to self: I'm likely in second place in the same ranking. Crowe (9) + Feek (10) + Ford (10) + Cruyff (8) + Travis joker (24) = 61 points

 

Also, I think DDT got 66 points (Plowright 9 + Crowe 9 + Feek 20 + Davies 6 + Ford 10 + Travis 12).

 

 

Kris Travis was 32 so only worth 10 points.

 

Well, I say "only"...

[Switch 141]

 

 

Aye, after coming one point short in my debut year that milestone has been reached at long last.

 

Also - surely DDT has to have shattered the most points in a month record? By my reckoning, Plowright, Crowe, Feek joker, Davies, Ford, and Travis add up to 64 points.

Note to self: I'm likely in second place in the same ranking. Crowe (9) + Feek (10) + Ford (10) + Cruyff (8) + Travis joker (24) = 61 points

 

Also, I think DDT got 66 points (Plowright 9 + Crowe 9 + Feek 20 + Davies 6 + Ford 10 + Travis 12).

 

 

Kris Travis was 32 so only worth 10 points.

 

Well, I say "only"...

 

Ah, for some reason when I made my team I wrote down he was worth 12. Probably would have chosen Feek as joker if I had known it was actually 10.

[Eesti 151]

I'll do another update next week. Couldn't post yesterday - was in a hurry.

Anyways - hit #8 for me and TOP 10 is in my sight.

[Banshees Scream 110]

It seems that the probability is what you think it is but more so.

[Guest Ars longa, vita brevis]

Not only are there a lot of hits, but they are so young as well. Looking at the average of the picks in the top five teams, as well as adding Kris Travis into the mix, Heading Nowhere leads the way.

 

1. Thomas Jefferson Survives 73+87 + 58 + 53 + 68 +33 +40 + 47 + 63 + 87 + 32 / 11 = 52.5

2. The Living End 73 + 53 + 81 + 40 + 47 + 63 + 20 + 87 + 59 + 32 / 10 = 55.5

3. Pan Breed 73 +53 + 33 + 40 + 47 + 63 + 87 + 79 + 25 / 9 = 55.6

4. Cancerous Hatred 73 + 53 + 40 + 23 + 79 + 59 + 32 / 7 =51.3

5. Heading Nowhere 73 + 58 + 53 + 40 + 86 + 22 + 25 + 32 / 8 = 48.6

The oldest picks were 87 (Eric Lubbock and Alfredo "Chocolate" Armenteros) with the only Patrick Harrington (86) and Peter Maxwell Davies (81) to join them in the octogenarian club.

[Guest Ars longa, vita brevis]

Not only are there a lot of hits, but they are so young as well. Looking at the average of the picks in the top five teams, as well as adding Kris Travis into the mix, Heading Nowhere leads the way.

 

1. Thomas Jefferson Survives 73+87 + 58 + 53 + 68 +33 +40 + 47 + 63 + 87 + 32 / 11 = 52.5

2. The Living End 73 + 53 + 81 + 40 + 47 + 63 + 20 + 87 + 59 + 32 / 10 = 55.5

3. Pan Breed 73 +53 + 33 + 40 + 47 + 63 + 87 + 79 + 25 / 9 = 55.6

4. Cancerous Hatred 73 + 53 + 40 + 23 + 79 + 59 + 32 / 7 =51.3

5. Heading Nowhere 73 + 58 + 53 + 40 + 86 + 22 + 25 + 32 / 8 = 48.6

The oldest picks were 87 (Eric Lubbock and Alfredo "Chocolate" Armenteros) with the only Patrick Harrington (86) and Peter Maxwell Davies (81) to join them in the octogenarian club.

 

And another thing. Of all of those hits, only two (Louise Plowright and Andrew Smith) had surnames from the second half of the alphabet.

[Book 3,557]

Hans-Dietrich Genscher, former German Foreign Minister, dies at 89.

Another former Foreign Minister, Guido Westerwelle, died just 2 weeks ago.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/article-3518862/Former-German-foreign-minister-Genscher-dies-89.html

[Eesti 151]

 

 

 

I have already 4/20. (Pat Harrington Jr, Rene Angelil, Eric Lubbock, Martin Crowe)

 

I believe that Feek, Marks will be also hits.

Others ... I don't know. History shows that I get 3/20 or 7/20 hits per year. I have already over 3... so I will have 7 hits probably.

So last time I did this - Feek died on the same day.

 

So today it seems, that ...

 

90% chance to die in 2016 - Ford

75% chance to die in 2016 - Marks, Granger, Kohl

50% chance to die in 2016 - Adamowicz, Travis, James, Carter, Gabor

25% chance to die in 2016 - Farnham, Westhuizen, Ali

5% chance to die in 2016 - Cruyff, Romero, Fawkes

 

My math says that I will get more hits this year.

 

 

Four days later. Ford is dead. Soon I shall do another update. Gonna be harder this time.

 

Now I did some heavy research. This is how it's going to be according to the information available.

 

1. Kate Granger 85% (according to her blog 16.03.16 - losing her battle to cancer)

2. Keith Farnham 75% (pulmonary fibrosis, bladder cancer and hepatitis C - should be dead already)

3. Howard Marks 70% (inoperable bowel cancer which has spread to his liver and lungs since 2014/15 winter)

4. Tony Adamowicz 65% (stage 4 brain cancer - should be dead in less than two years)

5. Muhammad Ali 60% (32 years with Parkinson's disease - getting worse every year)

6. Clive James 55% (leukemia - embarraced to be alive since he should be dead already)

7. Kris Travis 50% (had stomach cancer, got into remission, cancer returned, life or death TBA)

8. Helen Fawkes 45% (won three times against ovarian cancer, according to her blog 22.03.16 - the cancer has returned)

9. Randy Romero 40% (hepatitis C, liver and kidneys are failing - according to doctors he might not see next year if he doesn't some new organ transplant)

10. Joost van der Westhuizen 35% (has MND - in 2011 was giver 2-5 years to live, only 10% with the illness can live up to 10 years)

11. Zsa Zsa Gabor 30% (according to statistics - people who are aged 99 have 70% chance to see their next birthday, otherways she has NO health issues at all)

12. Helmut Kohl 25% (health has been failing during the last 10 years, but now seems stable)

13. Jimmy Carter 20% (had cancer that had spread to brain and liver but declares himself cancer free, however he is old)

14. Johan Cruyff 15% (fighting with lung cancer and has a feeling that he is 2-0 up in the first half of a match that has not finished yet)

 

According to my math I should get six more hits which should give me a score of 46 points. If I add that to my current 58 points in DDP, I get 104 points. That should hive me a chance of 33% to win this years DDP. What do you guys think?

 

Alright, so ... 12 people left.

 

Well...

 

1. Granger 90%

2. Adamowicz 75%

3. Marks 70%

4. Farnham 65%

5. Ali 60%

6. Fawkes 55%

7. James 50%

8. Gabor 45%

9. Carter 40%

10. Kohl 35%

11. Romero 30%

12. van der Westhuizen 25%

 

Seems like that if you have cancer in 2016, you just have to go...

 

I am very positive that Granger won't see 2017 but she might not be the next one to go.

[Guest I D I O T]

For the List of the Missed:

 

Swiss Roman-catholic cardinal Georges Cottier

 

http://www.derbydeadpool.co.uk/deadpool2014/celebs_C.html#cottig

http://www.catholicculture.org/news/headlines/index.cfm?storyid=27956

 

Hungarian Nobel laureate and writer Imre Kertész

 

http://www.derbydeadpool.co.uk/deadpool2014/celebs_K.html#kertei

http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-35933390

 

"Sherlock Holmes"-actor Douglas Wilmer

 

http://www.derbydeadpool.co.uk/deadpool2005/celebs_W.html#wilmed

http://deadline.com/2016/03/actor-douglas-wilmer-known-as-the-1960s-sherlock-holmes-dies-at-96-1201729670/

 

All three died on March 31st!!!!

[RadGuy 1,614]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I have already 4/20. (Pat Harrington Jr, Rene Angelil, Eric Lubbock, Martin Crowe)

 

I believe that Feek, Marks will be also hits.

Others ... I don't know. History shows that I get 3/20 or 7/20 hits per year. I have already over 3... so I will have 7 hits probably.

So last time I did this - Feek died on the same day.

 

So today it seems, that ...

 

90% chance to die in 2016 - Ford

75% chance to die in 2016 - Marks, Granger, Kohl

50% chance to die in 2016 - Adamowicz, Travis, James, Carter, Gabor

25% chance to die in 2016 - Farnham, Westhuizen, Ali

5% chance to die in 2016 - Cruyff, Romero, Fawkes

 

My math says that I will get more hits this year.

Four days later. Ford is dead. Soon I shall do another update. Gonna be harder this time.

Now I did some heavy research. This is how it's going to be according to the information available.

 

 

1. Kate Granger 85% (according to her blog 16.03.16 - losing her battle to cancer)

2. Keith Farnham 75% (pulmonary fibrosis, bladder cancer and hepatitis C - should be dead already)

3. Howard Marks 70% (inoperable bowel cancer which has spread to his liver and lungs since 2014/15 winter)

4. Tony Adamowicz 65% (stage 4 brain cancer - should be dead in less than two years)

5. Muhammad Ali 60% (32 years with Parkinson's disease - getting worse every year)

6. Clive James 55% (leukemia - embarraced to be alive since he should be dead already)

7. Kris Travis 50% (had stomach cancer, got into remission, cancer returned, life or death TBA)

8. Helen Fawkes 45% (won three times against ovarian cancer, according to her blog 22.03.16 - the cancer has returned)

9. Randy Romero 40% (hepatitis C, liver and kidneys are failing - according to doctors he might not see next year if he doesn't some new organ transplant)

10. Joost van der Westhuizen 35% (has MND - in 2011 was giver 2-5 years to live, only 10% with the illness can live up to 10 years)

11. Zsa Zsa Gabor 30% (according to statistics - people who are aged 99 have 70% chance to see their next birthday, otherways she has NO health issues at all)

12. Helmut Kohl 25% (health has been failing during the last 10 years, but now seems stable)

13. Jimmy Carter 20% (had cancer that had spread to brain and liver but declares himself cancer free, however he is old)

14. Johan Cruyff 15% (fighting with lung cancer and has a feeling that he is 2-0 up in the first half of a match that has not finished yet)

 

According to my math I should get six more hits which should give me a score of 46 points. If I add that to my current 58 points in DDP, I get 104 points. That should hive me a chance of 33% to win this years DDP. What do you guys think?

Alright, so ... 12 people left.

 

Well...

 

1. Granger 90%

2. Adamowicz 75%

3. Marks 70%

4. Farnham 65%

5. Ali 60%

6. Fawkes 55%

7. James 50%

8. Gabor 45%

9. Carter 40%

10. Kohl 35%

11. Romero 30%

12. van der Westhuizen 25%

 

Seems like that if you have cancer in 2016, you just have to go...

 

I am very positive that Granger won't see 2017 but she might not be the next one to go.

Methinks me has Granger in MHDP and that's all.

If she makes it to July 1st I'll add her into Shaun's DP.

 

I have Marks in like everything so... kinda counting on him.

[Eesti 151]

1. The Living End 106 (11 dead) (Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, Bonnie Brown, Vera Caslavska, Errol Christie, Jenny Diski, Peter Esterhazy, Thomas Fekete, Gary Haggarty, Mary Lucas)

2. Thomas Jefferson Survives 103 (11 dead) (Bonnie Brown, Errol Christie, Jenny Diski, Peter Esterhazy, Sharon Jones, Bruce Langhorne, Yoshiro Nakamatsu, John Wicks (U), Suzanne Wright (U))

3. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals 101 (11 dead) (Errol Christie, Michel Delpech (waiting for obit), Jenny Diski, Abdul Sattar Edhi, Peter Esterhazy, Thomas Fekete, Kate Granger, Luke Halpin (U), Rowena Kincaid)

4. Cancerous Hatred 99 (9 dead) (Muhammad Ali, Anthony Booth, Jimmy Carter, Marian Cisovsky (U), Keith Farnham, Kate Granger, Valerie Harper, Gino Odijck, Fernando Ricksen, Geoffrey James Robinson, Joost van der Westhuizen)

5. Pan Breed 96 (10 dead) (Bonnie Brown, Jenny Diski, Keith Farnham, Kate Granger, Rowena Kincaid, Steve LaTourette, Geoffrey James Robinson, Mark Sims, Nobby Stiles, Joost van der Westhuizen)

6. Heading Nowhere 95 (9 dead) (Bonnie Brown, Vera Ceslavska, Paul Cox, Jenny Diski, Peter Esterhazy, Kate Granger, Steve LaTourette, Yoshiro Nakamatsu, Terri Roberts, Ian St. John, Seijun Suzuki (U))

7. Golden Slumbers 92 (10 dead) (Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, Jenny Diski, Kate Granger, Goran Hadžic, Thomas W. Libous, Mary Lucas, Majestik Magnificent (U), Yoshiro Nakamatsu, Jock Scott, Joost van der Westhuizen)

8. Poochie Died On The Way Back To His Home Planet 85 (9 dead) (John Bain, Bonnie Brown, Jenny Diski, Kate Granger, Kristin Hallenga, Clive James, Bruce Langhorne, Jose Manuel Mourinho Felix, Miriam Defensor Santiago, Ian St. John, Joost van der Westhuizen)

9. DDP Tofoa 83 (9 dead) (Tony Adamowicz, Muhammad Ali, Jimmy Carter, Keith Farnham, Helen Fawkes, Zsa Zsa Gabor, Kate Granger, Clive James, Helmut Kohl, Randy Romero, Joost van der Westhuizen)

9. Dead AS A Doornail 83 (8 dead) (John Bain, Tommy Chong, Jenny Diski, Pate Frates, Paul Gascoigne, Val Kilmer, John McGuinness (U), Gino Odijck, Fernando Ricksen, Joost van der Westhuizen, Lars Vilks (U), John Wetton)

11. The Love Boat 80 (8 dead) (Bonnie Brown, Vera Caslavska, Errol Christie, Paul Cox, Michel Delpech (waiting for obit), Peter Esterhazy, Gary Haggarty, Rowena Kincaid, Yoshiro Nakamatsu, Geoffrey James Robinson, Jockie Storrar, Andrew Yeaman (U))

Jenny Diski x8

Kate Granger x7

Joost van der Westhuizen x6

Bonnie Brown x6

Peter Esterhazy x5

Errol Christie x4

Yoshiro Nakamatsu x4

Keith Farnham x3

Vera Caslavska x3

Geoffrey James Robinson x3

Steve LaTourette x2

Thomas Fekete x2

Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi x2

Mary Lucas x2

Muhammad Ali x2

Jimmy Carter x2

Gino Odijck x2

Fernando Ricksen x2

Gary Haggarty x2

Rowena Kincaid x2

Paul Cox x2

John Bain x2

Clive James x2

Bruce Langhorne x2

Ian St. John x2

Michael Delpech (waiting for obit) x2

Sharon Jones

Valerie Harper

Mark Sims

Nobby Stiles

Anthony Booth

Terri Roberts

Abdul Sattar Edhi

Rowena Kincaid

Goran Hadžic

Thomas W. Libous

Jock Scott

Tony Adamowicz

Helen Fawkes

Zsa Zsa Gabor

Helmut Kohl

Randy Romero

Tommy Chong

Pete Frates

Paul Gascoigne

Val Kilmer

John Wetton

Jackie Storrar

Kristin Hallenga

Jose Manuel Mourinho Felix

Miriam Defensor Santiago

Jown Wicks (Unique)

Suzanne Wright (Unique)

Marian Cisovsky (Unique)

Seijun Suzuki (Unique)

Luke Halpin (Unique)

Majestik Magnificent (Unique)

John McGuinness (Unique)

Lars Vilks (Unique)

Andrew Yeaman (Unique)

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

If 5-6 from this list here dies, I will win this year:

Tony Adamowicz

Muhammad Ali

Jimmy Carter

Helen Fawkes

Zsa Zsa Gabor

Clive James

Helmut Kohl

Randy Romero

________________________________________________________________________________________________

If Kate Granger dies next, then the table would look like:

1. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals 111

2. Cancerous Hatred 109

3. The Living End 106

3. Pan Breed 106

5. Heading Nowhere 105

6. Thomas Jefferson Survives 103

7. Golden Slumbers 102

8. Poochie Died On The Way Back To His Home Planet 95

9. DDP Tofoa 93

Would be more than interesting!

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

Edit: Updated after the death of Bob Ellis, Ronald Mulkearns & Howard Marks.

[Spade_Cooley 9,536]

I can see a path to me winning this year, but it has to go through Granger and Kincaid.

[themaninblack 2,112]

The amazing thing is that it's still early days. The table has the look of one from November and it's still April!

 

Could be long, tense wait for hits for the big guns in the next 8 months or so...

[YoungWillz 21,056]

Brought Forward

 

Now hang on a minute - Craig Strickland's points are still counting?

 

Anyway, Round Up #11

 

Patty Duke: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=1276&p=260039

 

Independent Obit: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/patty-duke-oscar-winning-former-child-star-dead-at-69-a6958656.html

 

Jean-Pierre Coffe: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=7873&p=260060

 

Awaiting Obit.

 

Ronnie Corbett: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=8561&p=260207

 

BBC Obit: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-35934024

 

Kris Travis: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=677&p=260222

 

Daily Mirror Obit: http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/other-sports/wrestling/british-wrestler-kris-travis-dies-7662938

 

Denise Robertson: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=8707&p=260409

 

BBC Obit: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35941395

 

Hans-Dietrich Genscher: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=8677&p=260420

 

BBC Obit: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35943728

 

Bob Ellis: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=7091&p=260616

 

Guardian Obit: http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/apr/03/bob-ellis-prolific-writer-and-former-labor-speechwriter-dies-aged-73

 

Joe Medicine Crow: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=8629&p=260652

 

BBC Obit: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-35956842

[Spade_Cooley 9,536]

Ellis QO: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3521350/Bob-Ellis-73-Australian-author-political-figure-dies-year-long-battle-liver-cancer.html

[Sir Creep 7,070]

If Ellis died during the hour that Australia was turning clocks forward an hour off of DST, that would skew one's time of death into 'it never really happened' territory, so no points can be awarded.

SC

[JiroemonKimura 95]

Diski and Nakamatsu are really gonna hurt me (Cancerous Hatred) big time. Assuming Diski, Granger, Nakamats, and Farnham are all dead certs, I'll be mainly counting on Antony Booth, Valerie Harper, Jimmy Carter, and Muhammad Ali, of which I may need multiple hits. Odjick, Cisovsky, and Ricksen would certainly help even more, but don't seem very likely to die at the moment.

 

UPDATE: Ronald Mulkearns is dead, putting The Living End at 106:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/04/ronald-mulkearns-bishop-accused-of-child-sex-abuse-cover-up-dies

[YoungWillz 21,056]

Brought Forward:

 

Brought Forward

 

Now hang on a minute - Craig Strickland's points are still counting?

 

Anyway, Round Up #11

 

Patty Duke: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=1276&p=260039

 

Independent Obit: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/patty-duke-oscar-winning-former-child-star-dead-at-69-a6958656.html

 

Jean-Pierre Coffe: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=7873&p=260060

 

Awaiting Obit.

 

Ronnie Corbett: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=8561&p=260207

 

BBC Obit: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-35934024

 

Kris Travis: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=677&p=260222

 

Daily Mirror Obit: http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/other-sports/wrestling/british-wrestler-kris-travis-dies-7662938

 

Denise Robertson: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=8707&p=260409

 

BBC Obit: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35941395

 

Hans-Dietrich Genscher: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=8677&p=260420

 

BBC Obit: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35943728

 

Bob Ellis: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=7091&p=260616

 

Guardian Obit: http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/apr/03/bob-ellis-prolific-writer-and-former-labor-speechwriter-dies-aged-73

 

Joe Medicine Crow: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=8629&p=260652

 

BBC Obit: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-35956842

 

Ronald Mulkearns: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=8613&p=260670 (Guardian Obit In Link)

[Guest Guest]

Is The Living End in cahoots with the Grim Reaper?

[Spade_Cooley 9,536]

So here's a thing....

 

After emailing The Guardian's obituary editor to ask if they were going to obit Delpech (see upthread), I then emailed The Independent's. He told me they had one on the way.

 

Now, you may have noticed that with the closing of The Indy's print resources, they are no longer running an obituary section. No obit ran in the six weeks between my email and the section's closure.

A closer look does reveal an obit, however, of the guy who wrote their music obituaries. This is why there was no QO.

 

I am going to lose the DDP because someone who was never picked by anyone died. A first?

[Spade_Cooley 9,536]

Although Mr Perrone himself certainly had a colourful life:

 

http://www.charliegillett.com/bb/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4548