Jump to content
themaninblack

Derby Dead Pool 2016

Recommended Posts

The person in the lead must be doing either voodoo or is it a strategy proven effective or is it luck with not much to offer in the long run? Time will tell it all.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The person in the lead must be doing either voodoo or is it a strategy proven effective or is it luck with not much to offer in the long run? Time will tell it all.

 

You might as well be talking about Leicester City!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lampreave doesn't look likely to get an outright Obit but could still nab a paragraph mention in articles later in the year for the Cannes or Venice Film Festival.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

 

 

I have already 4/20. (Pat Harrington Jr, Rene Angelil, Eric Lubbock, Martin Crowe)

 

I believe that Feek, Marks will be also hits.

Others ... I don't know. History shows that I get 3/20 or 7/20 hits per year. I have already over 3... so I will have 7 hits probably.

So last time I did this - Feek died on the same day.

 

So today it seems, that ...

 

90% chance to die in 2016 - Ford

75% chance to die in 2016 - Marks, Granger, Kohl

50% chance to die in 2016 - Adamowicz, Travis, James, Carter, Gabor

25% chance to die in 2016 - Farnham, Westhuizen, Ali

5% chance to die in 2016 - Cruyff, Romero, Fawkes

 

My math says that I will get more hits this year.

 

Four days later. Ford is dead. Soon I shall do another update. Gonna be harder this time.

 

Now I did some heavy research. This is how it's going to be according to the information available.

 

 

1. Kate Granger 85% (according to her blog 16.03.16 - losing her battle to cancer)

2. Keith Farnham 75% (pulmonary fibrosis, bladder cancer and hepatitis C - should be dead already)

3. Howard Marks 70% (inoperable bowel cancer which has spread to his liver and lungs since 2014/15 winter)

4. Tony Adamowicz 65% (stage 4 brain cancer - should be dead in less than two years)

5. Muhammad Ali 60% (32 years with Parkinson's disease - getting worse every year)

6. Clive James 55% (leukemia - embarraced to be alive since he should be dead already)

7. Kris Travis 50% (had stomach cancer, got into remission, cancer returned, life or death TBA)

8. Helen Fawkes 45% (won three times against ovarian cancer, according to her blog 22.03.16 - the cancer has returned)

9. Randy Romero 40% (hepatitis C, liver and kidneys are failing - according to doctors he might not see next year if he doesn't some new organ transplant)

10. Joost van der Westhuizen 35% (has MND - in 2011 was giver 2-5 years to live, only 10% with the illness can live up to 10 years)

11. Zsa Zsa Gabor 30% (according to statistics - people who are aged 99 have 70% chance to see their next birthday, otherways she has NO health issues at all)

12. Helmut Kohl 25% (health has been failing during the last 10 years, but now seems stable)

13. Jimmy Carter 20% (had cancer that had spread to brain and liver but declares himself cancer free, however he is old)

14. Johan Cruyff 15% (fighting with lung cancer and has a feeling that he is 2-0 up in the first half of a match that has not finished yet)

 

According to my math I should get six more hits which should give me a score of 46 points. If I add that to my current 58 points in DDP, I get 104 points. That should hive me a chance of 33% to win this years DDP. What do you guys think?

 

Alright, so ... 12 people left.

 

Well...

 

1. Granger 90%

2. Adamowicz 75%

3. Marks 70%

4. Farnham 65%

5. Ali 60%

6. Fawkes 55%

7. James 50%

8. Gabor 45%

9. Carter 40%

10. Kohl 35%

11. Romero 30%

12. van der Westhuizen 25%

 

Seems like that if you have cancer in 2016, you just have to go...

 

I am very positive that Granger won't see 2017 but she might not be the next one to go.

 

Another hit. This time not too suprising. Granger up next.

 

 

1. The Living End 106 (11 dead) (Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, Bonnie Brown, Vera Caslavska, Errol Christie, Jenny Diski, Peter Esterhazy, Thomas Fekete, Gary Haggarty, Mary Lucas)
2. Thomas Jefferson Survives 103 (11 dead) (Bonnie Brown, Errol Christie, Jenny Diski, Peter Esterhazy, Sharon Jones, Bruce Langhorne, Yoshiro Nakamatsu, John Wicks (U), Suzanne Wright (U))
3. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals 101 (11 dead) (Errol Christie, Michel Delpech (waiting for obit), Jenny Diski, Abdul Sattar Edhi, Peter Esterhazy, Thomas Fekete, Kate Granger, Luke Halpin (U), Rowena Kincaid)
4. Cancerous Hatred 99 (9 dead) (Muhammad Ali, Anthony Booth, Jimmy Carter, Marian Cisovsky (U), Keith Farnham, Kate Granger, Valerie Harper, Gino Odijck, Fernando Ricksen, Geoffrey James Robinson, Joost van der Westhuizen)
5. Pan Breed 96 (10 dead) (Bonnie Brown, Jenny Diski, Keith Farnham, Kate Granger, Rowena Kincaid, Steve LaTourette, Geoffrey James Robinson, Mark Sims, Nobby Stiles, Joost van der Westhuizen)
6. Heading Nowhere 95 (9 dead) (Bonnie Brown, Vera Ceslavska, Paul Cox, Jenny Diski, Peter Esterhazy, Kate Granger, Steve LaTourette, Yoshiro Nakamatsu, Terri Roberts, Ian St. John, Seijun Suzuki (U))
7. Golden Slumbers 92 (10 dead) (Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, Jenny Diski, Kate Granger, Goran Hadžic, Thomas W. Libous, Mary Lucas, Majestik Magnificent (U), Yoshiro Nakamatsu, Jock Scott, Joost van der Westhuizen)
8. Poochie Died On The Way Back To His Home Planet 85 (9 dead) (John Bain, Bonnie Brown, Jenny Diski, Kate Granger, Kristin Hallenga, Clive James, Bruce Langhorne, Jose Manuel Mourinho Felix, Miriam Defensor Santiago, Ian St. John, Joost van der Westhuizen)
9. DDP Tofoa 83 (9 dead) (Tony Adamowicz, Muhammad Ali, Jimmy Carter, Keith Farnham, Helen Fawkes, Zsa Zsa Gabor, Kate Granger, Clive James, Helmut Kohl, Randy Romero, Joost van der Westhuizen)
9. Dead AS A Doornail 83 (8 dead) (John Bain, Tommy Chong, Jenny Diski, Pate Frates, Paul Gascoigne, Val Kilmer, John McGuinness (U), Gino Odijck, Fernando Ricksen, Joost van der Westhuizen, Lars Vilks (U), John Wetton)
11. The Love Boat 80 (8 dead) (Bonnie Brown, Vera Caslavska, Errol Christie, Paul Cox, Michel Delpech (waiting for obit), Peter Esterhazy, Gary Haggarty, Rowena Kincaid, Yoshiro Nakamatsu, Geoffrey James Robinson, Jockie Storrar, Andrew Yeaman (U))
________________________________________________________________________________________________
If Kate Granger dies next, then the table would look like:

1. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals 111
2. Cancerous Hatred 109
3. The Living End 106
3. Pan Breed 106
5. Heading Nowhere 105
6. Thomas Jefferson Survives 103
7. Golden Slumbers 102
8. Poochie Died On The Way Back To His Home Planet 95
9. DDP Tofoa 93

 

Would be more than interesting!

 

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Edit: Updated after the death of Bob Ellis, Ronald Mulkearns & Howard Marks.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think we're talking days rather than weeks for Granger at this point. Would be astounded if she made June.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Damn it. I think I only have Granger in a few deadpools, but not the DDP.

Nor Shaun's DP either, I hope she makes it to July 1st so I can switch someone for her.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How former fast scoring DDP years looked, in terms of hits, at this point in the year:

 

 

(Spoiler tagged to avoid taking up space)

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

 

  1. David Quanticks Showbiz Pals 6/15 (Presley, Cliburn, Franklin, Lynch, Glover, Pardee)
  2. Octopus of Odstock 11/13 (Martin-Jenkins, Nkomo, Winner, Presley, Harris, Cliburn, Franklin, Chavez, Pardee, Funicello, Edwards)
  3. Crossing the Styx 8/13 (Nkomo, Winner, Andrews, Presley, Cliburn, Chavez, Pardee, Funicello)
  4. Thomas Jefferson Survives 8/11( John Nkomo, Winner, Sheridan, Harris, Cliburn, Franklin, Chavez, Muir)
  5. The Living End 8/12 (Nkomo, Winner, Presley, Zedong, Harris, Cliburn, Chavez, Lynch)
  6. This Mortal Coil 6/11 (Martin-Jenkins, Winner, Presley, Harris, Chavez, Thatcher)
  7. Heading nowhere 6/11 (Winner, Presley, Harris, Cliburn, Franklin, Chavez)
  8. Star Dust 8/10 (Grace Sung Eun Lee, Harris, Cliburn, Bos, Franklin, Harvey, Chavez, Pardee)
  9. Going Underground 8/11 (Winner, Presley, Harris, Cliburn, Franklin, Harvey, Chavez, Ebert)
  10. Master Mind 5/12 (Presley, Cliburn, Franklin, Chavez, Pardee)
  11. Golden Slumbers 6/11 (Harris, Cliburn, Franklin, Chavez, Lynch, Pardee)
  12. Better Them Than Us! 5/10 (Winner, Cliburn, Franklin, Chavez, Pardee)
  13. I Shall Need to get the black out 3/10 (Presley, Chavez, Ebert)
  14. Dead by Dawn 5/11 (Andrews, Presley, Franklin, Chavez, Funicello)
  15. Daniel Faraday’s Notebook 7/10 (Winner, Harris, Cliburn, Franklin, Chavez, Pardee, Funicello)
  16. Misers 6/11 (Presley, Cliburn, Franklin, Chavez, Muir, Ebert)
  17. The Don 2/10 (Cliburn, Thatcher)
  18. If I’m Spared Myself of course 6/10 (Nkomo, Winner, Presley, Chavez, Ebert, Funicello)
  19. Hide and go Die 3/10 (Franklin, Chavez, Thatcher)
  20. Carkers Convention 5/11 (John Nkomo, Winner, Cliburn, Bond, Thatcher)
  21. Phantoms Pick n Mix 4/11 (Presley, Godfrey, Chavez, Thatcher)
  22. Stab in the Dark 7/10 (Winner, Andrews, Koch, Harris, Cliburn, Pardee, Funicello)

2011

  1. The Living End 7/12 (Karn, Lubbock, Lofthouse, Louvin, Higgins Sr, Wynne Jones, Alencar)

 

2009

  1. Tonight Matthew.. 3/12 (Llewellyn, Richard, Goody)
  2. Master Mind 3/12 (Llewellyn, Birch, Richard)
  3. Impaled on the Antlers of Doom 2/10 (Llewellyn, Richard)
  4. No Noose is Good Noose 4/11 (Llewellyn, Birch, Goody, Yamadayev)
  5. Ethnic Cleansing 2/13 (Llewellyn, Richard)
  6. Heaven Knows they’re miserable now 6/11 (Clijsters, Llewellyn, Mortimer, Hart, Birch, Richard)
  7. The Living End 4/10 (Llewellyn, Birch, Englaro, Richard)
  8. Cooking Small Fish 2/10 (Llewellyn, Richard)
  9. Deceased Hose 3/11 (Llewellyn, Birch, Richard)
  10. Meet your Maker 3/11 (Llewellyn, Birch, Richard)
  11. Canadian Paul 3/10 (Hart, Birch, Richard)
  12. The Last Gasp 3/10 (Clijsters, Mortimer, Richard)
  13. Eejit 4/12 (M dos Santos, Stone, Llewellyn, Richard

2008

  1. The Living End 8/13 (Moore, Archbishop Christodoulos, Amte, Drnovsek, Healey, Norm O’Neill, Mikey Dread, Griffiths)
  2. Godot’s Waiting List 9/13 (Hilary, Archbishop Christodoulos, Amte, Drnovsek, Juran, Healey, Pym, Griffiths, Widmark
  3. Wormer... 4/11 (Moore, Pleshette, Archbishop Christodoulos, Heston
  4. Canadian Paul 6/13 (Moore, Archbishop Christodoulos, Amte, Pym, Griffiths, Heston
  5. Master Mind 5/11 (Moore, Archbishop Christodoulos, Amte, Drnovsek, Griffiths
  6. They’re Dead Y’Know 9/12 (Ayers, Moore, Hilary, Peggy Jay, Archbishop Christodoulos, Scheider, Drnovsek, Pym, Heston
  7. Meet your maker 6/11 (Moore, Archbishop Christodoulos, Drnovsek, Mikey Dread, Griffiths, Heston
  8. Octopus of Odstock 3/10 (Pym, Griffiths, Heston)

 

2007

 

  1. Meet Your Maker 3/12 (Al-Bander al-Tikriti, Parsons, Gr0v3)
  2. Stab in the Dark 3/11 (Al-Bander, Al-Tikriti, Gr0v3)
  3. RIP it up and start again 3/10 (Al-Bander, Al-Tikriti, Gr0v3)
  4. We Spin Terror 3/10 (Al-Tikriti, Buchwald, Vonnegut

 

2005

 

  1. Fallen Sparrow 8/12(Ziyang, Bell, Schmeling, Cardinal Bafile, Mayr, Bethe, Kennan, JP2
  2. I Smell dead people 4/11 (Noble, Schmeling, Lord Roll of Ipsden, JP2)
  3. Dark Clouds and Silva Linings 3/10 (Bell, Bellow, Prince Ranier)

 

It turns out 2013 remains the closest, and even it is not the greatest hint of things to come, as many of the big hitters missed out dead certs. I suspect we're going to see things pan out much like OoO in 2013, with many of the teams in the top 10 starting to run out of steam after an early sprint, but then he did only have Henry Cecil of the walking dead left. Amusingly, he did have Kate Granger, 3 years on, and she'll still be talked about as one of the potential hits!

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here are the odds I give for my surviving DDP main team entries:

 

1)Kate Granger (95%) Stage four sarcoma affecting lungs and liver.5 year survival rate is near enough O and she was diagnosed in 2011.Has been off Twitter a week and has said there is no hope.Still undergoing chemo though.

2)Jenny Diski (90%) Lung cancer,Pulmonary fibrosis and a benign brain tumour affecting her ability to write.Given three months in February.

3)Jeanne Little (80%) Has Alzheimers.Diagnosed 2009 .Has been in a home since 2010 and has for several years been bedridden and non -communicative.

4)Zsa Zsa Gabor (70%) Bedridden ,fed through a feeding tube .Persistent infections,leg amputation,apparently has dementia and nearly 100.

5)Gladys Hooper (65%) 113 years old.broke hip last year.Now in Nursing home.Was pictured in bed at her birthday in January.

6)Billy Graham (60%) Parkinsons disease,prostate cancer,broken hips in years past, failing eyesight and hearing.as had serious infections in the past too.

7)Bhumibol Adulyadej (58%) Persistet infections, previous bleed on the brain,depression, spinal problems ,immobile.Is in Hospital almost all the time.88 years old.

8)Muhammad Ali (55%) Has Parkinsonns .Diagnosed 1984.Looks very frail in public.Had serious health scare last January

9)Leslie Phillips (52%) Had a stroke two years ago.Also had growth removed off his nose.Suffered a seizure and cardiac arrest last January.92 this month.

10)Stephen Hawking (48%) Longest ALS case in history.Diagnosed in 1963.Can barely move and uses a ventilator sometime.Has cancelled events over the last few years due to ill health.

11)Joost Van Der Westhuizen (45%) ALS since 2011.Given 2-5 years at the time.Can no longer walk and can barely talk.

12)John Noakes (42%) Has had Alzheimers for some years.Went missing last year and was found with a weak heartbeat.Recovered but couldnt remember incident next day.82 now

13)Paul Gascoigne (37%) Severe alcoholic who keeps falling off the wagon and has looked rough for years.Suffers with depression and other mental health difficulties.

14)Kris Hallenga (22%) Has had stage 4 breast cancer since 2009.Is responding well to treatment and still active and looking good.

15)Val Kilmer (20%) Rumored throat cancer.Looks a bit healthier in recent photos though.Apparently is reluctant to receive treatment for rumored cancer due to christian scientist beliefs.Has a tracheotomy and has lost considerable weight. Hospitalized last January with bleeding from the throat.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not gonna bother going indepth on all my nine survivors, Diski and Langhorne are still fecked though, and I'm expecting at least two of Christie, Esterhazy, Nakamatsu, and Wright to go at some point during the year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I only have three groups of people on my team:

 

1) Dead-certs picked by everyone (Feek, Angelil, etc.)

 

2) Very famous and old but not necessarily unhealthy people (Gabor, Bush, etc.)

 

3) Not so old, terminally ill, but unlikely to die this year (Harper, Westhuizen, James)

 

The folks from Group 1 are all dead, so I'm relying on a couple of Group 2 oldies (Havelange and Bush maybe) to throw in the towel, and at least one from the small Group 3.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As for me, Diski is the only (near-)certainty. Then there are a few cancer patients who might hold on (Bain, Chong, Kilmer, Wetton), a few ALS sufferers who are also likely to see 2017 (Frates, Ricksen, vd Westhuizen) and Gino Odjick, who seems to be recovering from amyloidosis and is probably a wasted pick. Then I have three wildcards in Gascoigne (if he drinks himself to death), McGuinness (the Isle of Man TT is pretty dangerous) and Vilks (surely there are still terrorists who want to see him dead). I probably won't reach 100, not that it's a bad thing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Update will be tomorrow.

 

Just been totting up the monthly total for March player of the month. Astonishing...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Update will be tomorrow.

 

Just been totting up the monthly total for March player of the month. Astonishing...

 

Go on give us a peek. :)

 

Seen as every one is doing likelihoods.

 

Muhammad Ali - probably could die this year but not expecting it now

Tony Booth - probably not

Bhummibol Adulyadej - should die this year

June Brown - Probably won't

Jimmy Carter - should go

Piet de Jong - probably will

William Frankland - expect him to but he's worth butt all anyway

Zsa Zsa - more hope than expectation.

Billy Graham Rev - should go this year

Clare Hollingworth - see Frankland^^^

Clive James - unsure think he will go

Stan Lee - unsure think he will go

Denis Norden - don't think he will

Richard McKenzie, unsure

Joost van Der Westhuin - probs not

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, the record number of hits in a month has been smashed and points accrued too...it's the sheer number of teams that have done it!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think I picked up around 40 points in March, give or take, and if my maths is at all accurate, that's nowhere near the new record. (I shall aim not to spoil the suspence, however!) I don't recall three popular individual hits worth 10 points (plus jokers galore) all going in the same month before.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think I picked up around 40 points in March, give or take, and if my maths is at all accurate, that's nowhere near the new record. (I shall aim not to spoil the suspence, however!) I don't recall three popular individual hits worth 10 points (plus jokers galore) all going in the same month before.

I think I got 57 points in March.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Brought Forward:

 

Brought Forward:

 

Round Ups reach a Dirty Dozen - #12

 

Chus Lampreave: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=7873&p=260719

 

Awaiting Obit.

 

Merle Haggard: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=6842&p=260902

 

BBC Obit: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-35981077

 

John Edward "Jack" Brooks, Baron Brooks of Tremorfa: (From the List of The Lost)

 

Telegraph Obit: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/obituaries/2016/04/06/lord-brooks-of-tremorfa---obituary/

 

Blackjack Mulligan: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=677&p=261006

 

Daily Mirror Obit: http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/other-sports/wrestling/tributes-paid-wwe-tag-team-7710958

 

Hendrijke Fitz: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=8613&p=261057

 

Awaiting Obit.

 

Julien Hoferlin: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=1596&p=261063 (Reuters UK Obit In Link)

 

Howard Marks: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=8629&p=261427

 

Guardian Obit: http://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/apr/10/howard-marks-dies-aged-70

 

Arthur Anderson: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=7202&p=261562

 

Daily Mail Obit: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3538723/Lucky-Leprechaun-voice-actor-dies-NY-age-93.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

 

Mildred Gordon: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=8677&p=261703

 

Telegraph Obit: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/obituaries/2016/04/14/mildred-gordon-mp---obituary/

 

David Gest: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=8629&p=261704

 

Sun Obit: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/7070076/David-Gest-has-been-found-dead-in-his-hotel-room.html?CMP=spklr-_-Editorial-_-TWITTER-_-TheSunNewspaper-_-20160412-_-News-_-429033757-_-Imageandlink

 

Jock Scot: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=3723&p=261848

 

Telegraph Obit: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/obituaries/2016/04/15/jock-scot-performance-poet--obituary/

 

Gareth Thomas: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=8719&p=261871

 

BBC Obit: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-36041534

 

David Swift: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=7181&p=262104

 

Guardian Obit: http://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2016/apr/18/david-swift-obituary

 

Jordan Lotter: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=8709&p=262418

 

Awaiting Obit.

 

Doris Roberts: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=8495&p=262520

 

Daily Mail Obit: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-3546807/Emmy-winner-Doris-Roberts-best-known-Everybody-Loves-Raymond-dies-age-90.html

 

Patricio Aylwin: http://www.deathlist.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=8677&p=262589 (Guardian Obit In Link)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well there would have been an update tonight but I'm having trouble with the server.

 

Have Plusnet pulled the plug?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well there would have been an update tonight but I'm having trouble with the server.

 

Have Plusnet pulled the plug?

Has the background choirboys music stopped?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jock Scot's death, assuming he was in his 60s, means that for the first time we have four DDP teams break the 100-point barrier in a year (last year's three podiums and Golden Slumbers).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Googling Scot brings up a 21 September 1952 birthdate, so yeah, died at 63.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jock Scot's death, assuming he was in his 60s, means that for the first time we have four DDP teams break the 100-point barrier in a year (last year's three podiums and Golden Slumbers).

 

It's possible 15-20 teams will reach 100 this year,and even that feels like a consevative guess

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×

Important Information

Your use of this forum is subject to our Terms of Use