Thoughts On The 2017 List

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,342]

Just now, Joey Russ said:

No Fats either...

Well spotted Joey. In fairness it's a decent assessment of each name as was the one you did recently but Fats Domino and Pope Benedict I think are likely 'contenders' of those still left. 

[msc 18,450]

Well, here's a mad stat about the vagaries of life and all that:

 

From 2011 to 2016, there were 2 Deathlist hits in the month of September - Herbert Lom (2012) and Ian Paisley (2014).

From 20th September 2017 to 26th September 2017, there were three!

 

 

For those who must know such things:

 

2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 all provided October hits consecutively.

2014, 2015, 2016 for November hits, ditto.

Whereas since 2003, only 2007 and 2015 have gone without a single December hit.

 

 

 

[msc 18,450]

In order (a revival from 2015, this one...)

1.       2015 (14/50), 2008 (14/50), 2003 (14/50)

2.       2017 (13/50), 2013 (13/50), 2006 (13/50)

3.       2016 (12/50), 2012 (12/50), 2009 (12/50), 2005 (12/50), 2004 (12/50)

4.       2014 (10/50), 2007 (10/50), 2002 (10/50), 2001 (10/50), 2000 (10/50), 1999 (10/50)

5.       2010 (9/50), 1997 (9/50), 1995 (9/50), 1994 (9/50)

6.       1998 (8/50),

7.       2011 (7/50), 1996 (7/50)

8.       1993 (5/56), 1992 (5/37)

9.       1990 (3/42), 1989 (3/32)

10.   1987 (1/31)

11.   1991 (0/40)

 

 

Right, any other stats aren't in that one Word Doc I put together in 2015 when people thought the record was going then!

[Life Is Beautiful 716]

6 minutes ago, msc said:

8.       1993 (5/56), 1992 (5/37)

9.       1990 (3/42), 1989 (3/32)

10.   1987 (1/31)

11.   1991 (0/40)

 

Geez. The early ones weren't even trying, were they?

[Spade_Cooley 9,525]

msc swinging for that OptaDeath crown

[msc 18,450]

6 minutes ago, Spade_Cooley said:

msc swinging for that OptaDeath crown

 

 

There were all in the same file... and suddenly Healey's first law of holes comes to mind.

[Joey Russ 7,227]

19 minutes ago, Life Is Beautiful said:

Geez. The early ones weren't even trying, were they?

They were new at this and didn't have a precedence really. Don't blame them for the bad lists...

[Life Is Beautiful 716]

4 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

They were new at this and didn't have a precedence really. Don't blame them for the bad lists...

Also, there was no Internet. At least not as we know it.

[Death Impends 7,975]

Yeah back then you didn't have the convenient e-references for living 98 year olds or celebrities with terminal cancer. The main metrics then were "which famous people are oldish from memory? (even if they weren't actually that old, as with Clive Dunn then being much younger than his characters)" and "who looked rough on TV lately?".

 

[Deathtreat23 189]

2 Deaths in One Day means we are almost certain to get the record this year unless we hit a 2003 style stumbling block.

[Deadpool 166]

On 01/09/2017 at 14:59, Deadpool said:

I think September will be another good month for deaths. I think about, at least, another two hits for the deathlist  (maybe 3).

I was right!!!!

[Deadpool 166]

On 15/08/2017 at 12:19, Sean said:

So we need 7 to die to get the record so here is my assessment of the 14 most likely to die

1)Jerry Lewis (Heart problems dating back to 1960 as well as many gealth problems.Now has difficulty swallowing following an infection:Been very quiet these past few weeks)

2)Tony Booth (Advanced Alzheimers COPD and congestive heart failure and still smoking)

3)Gord Downie (Now 20months into a glioblastoma diagnosis which is above average.Been quiet again recently.

4)Nobby Stiles (End stage alzheimers dating back well over a decade.In a nursing home and seems close to death according to son.Also has prostate cancer and several strokes.

5)Leah Bracknell (11 months into stage 4 lung cancer and reliant on quack medicine for several months.Nearly died from a build up of fluid on heart last year.)

6)Jake LaMotta (Extremely elderly frail and in a nusing home now.Has had heart problems too)

7)King Michael (Two types of cancer frail but stable but at nearly 96 and a lot of time in hospital things can only get worse)

8)HermanWouk(Exceptionally old wheelchair bound and reliant on oxygen tank.)

9)Jill Gascoigne (Had Alzheimers and has been a nursing home for about 3.All reports seem bleak)

10)Liz Dawn (Had emphysema nearly 15 years is wheelchair bound has heart problems and is prone to pneumonia.Very quiet since heart surgery in June)

11)Valerie Harper (Has metastatic lung cancer in the meninges.Been dying for 4 and a half years but no recent update.)

12)Leslie Philips (Had a serious stroke 2 years ago.Wheelchair bound and nearly died from a seizure a while back.)

13)George H W Bush (Has a form of parkinsons and keeps getting a recurrent lung infection.)

14)Bruce Forsyth (Not been seen orphotographed since 2015 when he had anerysm surgery.At 89 such a slow recovery can't be a good sign)

 

Seems plausible half will go by December 31st.Even if not still a lot of over 90s on this list.Still achievable.

 

2/14 in 4 days.

 

 

5 of 14 ... nice analysis! Well done! 

[msc 18,450]

That wasn't analysis, it was @Sean time traveling.

[Deadpool 166]

My updated verdict for the 2017 list

 

Death almost certain before  31 Dec 2017 (90-99%) : King Michael of Romania, Leah Bracknell, Herman Wouk 

 

In real danger but may make to 2018 (50-90%): Gord Downie, George H.W Bush, Leslie Phillips, Duke of Edinburgh, Bob Barker 

 

Some chance (20-50%): Desmond Tutu, Billy Graham, Carrington, Denis Norden, Pierre Cardin, Javier Perez De Cuellar, Doug Ellis, Hugh Hefner, Stan Lee, Pope Benedict XVI, Vera Lynn, Kirk Douglas,  Olivia De Havilland, Hosni Mubarak, Valerie Harper 

 

Little chance (1-20%): Emperor  Akihito, Betty White, Honor Blackman, Bob Dole, Gay Byrne, Fats Domino, Ian St John,  Robert Mugabe, David Prowse, Jill Gascoine

 

They will see 2018: Queen Elizabeth II , Jimmy Carter, Sandy Gall 

[Zsa Zsa's leg 884]

1 hour ago, Deadpool said:

My updated verdict for the 2017 list

 

Death almost certain before  31 Dec 2017 (90-99%) : King Michael of Romania, Leah Bracknell, Herman Wouk 

 

In real danger but may make to 2018 (50-90%): Gord Downie, George H.W Bush, Leslie Phillips, Duke of Edinburgh, Bob Barker 

 

Some chance (20-50%): Desmond Tutu, Billy Graham, Carrington, Denis Norden, Pierre Cardin, Javier Perez De Cuellar, Doug Ellis, Hugh Hefner, Stan Lee, Pope Benedict XVI, Vera Lynn, Kirk Douglas,  Olivia De Havilland, Hosni Mubarak, Valerie Harper 

 

Little chance (1-20%): Emperor  Akihito, Betty White, Honor Blackman, Bob Dole, Gay Byrne, Fats Domino, Ian St John,  Robert Mugabe, David Prowse, Jill Gascoine

 

They will see 2018: Queen Elizabeth II , Jimmy Carter, Sandy Gall 

I have a few issues with this.

1. I get it, Herman Wouk is old and is using a nasal canulla, but there is no indication other than his age that he is ready to die!!! I don't understand how he receives so mant votes in the __ death of 2017 threads.

2. Same thing with Barker and Phillips, except they're in their 90's and less likely than even Wouk to die. The "Barker has a breakdown at his wife's grave" was just another update to Radar's fascination with him. 

3. Jill Gascoine has been in the final stages of her Alzheimer's for nearly a year, I don't understand how that can give a hint that she has little chance of dying this year. 

This response was not meant to be offensive, I do understand that you are relatively new. But, these predictions sometimes get under my skin!

[Sean 6,327]

2 hours ago, msc said:

That wasn't analysis, it was @Sean time traveling.

No I simply fill in for the grim reaper during the summer months.

[msc 18,450]

3 minutes ago, Sean said:

No I simply fill in for the grim reaper during the summer months.

 

Ah, cool...

 

Wait a minute...

 

Damn you, Reaper Sean, what did Robert Hardy do to you?

 

[Joey Russ 7,227]

5 minutes ago, Zsa Zsa's leg said:

I get it, Herman Wouk is old and is using a nasal canulla, but there is no indication other than his age that he is ready to die!!! I don't understand how he receives so mant votes in the __ death of 2017 threads.

Well, Wouk did sound and look physically frail in that last interview that we saw. Yeah, he was still very mentally sharp, but it's the physical body that gives out in the end, not the mind. No guarantee that he'll die this year, of course, but LaMotta looked terrible at the end of June and he died in September, so I don't think he's that far behind tbh...

[Joey Russ 7,227]

I do agree with you on the other 2 points, however @Zsa Zsa's leg

[Death Impends 7,975]

6 minutes ago, msc said:

 

Ah, cool...

 

Wait a minute...

 

Damn you, Reaper Sean, what did Robert Hardy do to you?

 

 

Time for me to ban Sean for what he did to June

[Drewsky1211 4,744]

7 hours ago, msc said:

 

100th -  Hardy Amies, 5th March 2003

150th - Gerald Ford, 27th December 2006

200th - Betty Ford, 9th July 2011

250th - Al Molinaro, 30th October 2015

As for earlier hits...

 

1st- Andrés Segovia, 1st June 1987

10th- Marlene Deitrich, 5th May 1992

50th- Burgess Meredith, 10th September 1997

[Deadpool 166]

26 minutes ago, Zsa Zsa's leg said:

I have a few issues with this.

1. I get it, Herman Wouk is old and is using a nasal canulla, but there is no indication other than his age that he is ready to die!!! I don't understand how he receives so mant votes in the __ death of 2017 threads.

2. Same thing with Barker and Phillips, except they're in their 90's and less likely than even Wouk to die. The "Barker has a breakdown at his wife's grave" was just another update to Radar's fascination with him. 

3. Jill Gascoine has been in the final stages of her Alzheimer's for nearly a year, I don't understand how that can give a hint that she has little chance of dying this year. 

This response was not meant to be offensive, I do understand that you are relatively new. But, these predictions sometimes get under my skin!

Yeah well... my predictions are mine. it's what I thought... I can be right with some of them and can be wrong in others... like you, msc,  Joey Russ or someone else... Some analysis (maybe not mine) can be more "accurate" OK, but not 100% effective anyway.

By the way I ( and just another 2 person) vote for Liz Dawn for the 12th death of 2017

[Zsa Zsa's leg 884]

2 minutes ago, Deadpool said:

Yeah well... my predictions are mine. it's what I thought... I can be right with some of them and can be wrong in others... like you, msc,  Joey Russ or someone else... Some analysis (maybe not mine) can be more "accurate" OK, but not 100% effective anyway.

By the way I ( and just another 2 person) vote for Liz Dawn for the 12th death of 2017

But Tony Booth died before Liz Dawn? So you were technically wrong.

[Deadpool 166]

3 minutes ago, Zsa Zsa's leg said:

But Tony Booth died before Liz Dawn? So you were technically wrong.

Liz Dawn was reported first and is the 12th death in the main page

[Zsa Zsa's leg 884]

6 minutes ago, Deadpool said:

Liz Dawn was reported first and is the 12th death in the main page

Tony Booth was reported to have died last night while supposedly Liz Dawn died this morning.