Thoughts On The 2017 List

[philheybrookbay 439]

I was shocked when I woke up as Hugh wasn't on my radar to be fair but we're hotter than a crematorium oven in the desert at the moment  

[gcreptile 10,234]

On 1.1.2017 at 14:34, gcreptile said:

Good analysis, msc.

 

My guess: 20/50

Bringing this back, though the list is one death away from that (should be 15 hits at the end of the third quarter).

I like how my other predictions are turning out (Clive James is one for 2018, ignoring Helmut Kohl was a mistake.)

[msc 17,762]

Looking back at that "good analysis":

 

1.      Peter Sallis: I thought he was a goner in 2016, I certainly do in 2017. One year I might be right...

2.      Tony Booth: Falling to pieces, if he makes 2018, give him a medal.

3.      Jake Lamotta – Not sure how he made his 96^th year.

4.      Hugh Hefner – Old.

5.      Joost van der Westhuizen – Frail at Christmas, lasted 6 years with ALS now.

6.      Mary Tyler Moore – Her again!

7.      Errol Christie – “Year to live” sometime pre-May 2016. A cert.

8.      Ian Brady – Says he is terminally ill. I say he’s a scumbag liar, but a hit here would be lovely.

9.      Glen Campbell – A must for 2017, surely.

10.  Liz Dawn – First time on the Deathlist, despite many years of folk asking for her. The Ali gambit once more?

11.  John Noakes – Said to be very poorly with dementia when he disappeared in Summer 2015. He was found, and survived 2016, but it suggests 2017 might be a tough one for him.

12.  Bruce Forsyth – Probably a banker, imo.

13.  Jerry Lewis – Oh, he’s back.

14.  David Rockefeller – Very old.

 

 

 

About 9/14 there. On those numbers, a look back at those still living I suggested were in trouble:

 

 

 

Kirk Douglas: A decent shot on age.

Vera Lynn: Reportedly in frail health and unable to attend things now. A solid pick.

Herman Wouk: Quite old.

Leah Bracknell: Stage IV cancer and reliant on shamans. Fucked.

Gord Downie: terminal glioblastoma. A cert.

Leslie Phillips – Not only quiet since those strokes, but pics of him in the Mail were hideous last year. On the road out.

King Michael – leukaemia in a 95 year old is probably trouble.

Nobby Stiles – Said to be “gravely ill”.

Jill Gascoine – Husband said she was in the final stages of dementia. Difficult to judge these things in time.

Ian St John – bladder cancer spreading after surgery. Fecked.

Pope Benedict XVI – Said to be in very frail health.

Fats Domino – Still no idea how he’s outlived most of his contemporaries. His healthier contemporaries.

Akihito – General view? If the Japanese government committee are suggesting he can abdicate, in Japan, then he’s fucked.

Valerie Harper – Well she is still terminal, just how slowly terminal?

 

      Not quite the Sean list of the dead, but if there are further hits, I still expect them to come from that list above.

 

 

 

[Death Impends 7,373]

Given the list still has three names (Leah, Gord, Mihai) everyone would've thought have died by now, if the list doesn't further the score yet then "14 hits max" surely has to be as etched into stone as "never finishing at 11 hits".

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,211]

I'm going to be bold and say I think we will reach 17 this year but then struggle to reach as high a figure again for quite a few years. 

[Weebl 216]

I'm amazed with how this year's list has managed to turn itself around.

 

We were not doing particularly well at all mid-summer with quite a few obvious misses including some big names, but then August and then September have brought a lot of hits.

 

So it looks like 2017 will almost certainly be the record-breaking year - still got 3 months left to go and there's no way all 36 living people on that list will last that period of time!

 

(Although stranger things have happened...)

[Sean 5,998]

I predicted this would be a record list and I am now probably going to be proved right.I would say that even smashing it and getting around 20 is possible.Still many over 95s and terminally ill folks on the list.I still think Stiles Bracknell Downie King Michael. and Gascoine are all unlikely to live much longer.

[Sean 5,998]

DL 2018 should be interesting.My money is on Roger Bannister John McCain Olivia Newton John Johnny Hallyday Tessa Jowell Linda Nolan David Cassidy Malcolm Young Ric Flair Ray Wilson Martin Peters Trevor Peacock Joanne Woodward Gerd Muller Terry Jones and Billy Connolly being new entries.

[YoungWillz 19,099]

10 minutes ago, Sean said:

DL 2018 should be interesting.My money is on Roger Bannister John McCain Olivia Newton John Johnny Hallyday Tessa Jowell Linda Nolan David Cassidy Malcolm Young Ric Flair Ray Wilson Martin Peters Trevor Peacock Joanne Woodward Gerd Muller Terry Jones and Billy Connolly being new entries.

Sounds like someone has a DDP team sorted...

[Deathtreat23 182]

2 hours ago, Weebl said:

I'm amazed with how this year's list has managed to turn itself around.

 

We were not doing particularly well at all mid-summer with quite a few obvious misses including some big names, but then August and then September have brought a lot of hits.

 

So it looks like 2017 will almost certainly be the record-breaking year - still got 3 months left to go and there's no way all 36 living people on that list will last that period of time!

 

(Although stranger things have happened...)

Like 2003 (where we didn't have a hit at all after this point in the year).

[Joey Russ 7,119]

4 minutes ago, Deathtreat23 said:

Like 2003 (where we didn't a hit at all after this point in the year).

Well, by the end of 2003, the vast majority of the good picks were already dead by then. Whereas lots of good picks still remain on this list...

[gcreptile 10,234]

I guess the committee will bring back their "B-List": James Randi, Henry Kissinger, Clive James...

They have a rotation going on...

[msc 17,762]

Some golden oldies could easily return: Aretha, Frank Bough,  Connery...

 

About time Angela Lansbury came back, in case she does a number on us and dies in her sleep one day.

[Zsa Zsa's leg 751]

Gotta give the committee some credit. The past 3 hits were just now making their first appearances and none of them (Maybe Booth) were certs. 

Although they have certainly found a way to get 14 hits, they can't stick the landing for #15. I would be confident but 2003 is proof that we can't get too hopeful. Same with 2015, I am sure November-December 2015 were very tense.

[msc 17,762]

I give Sean credit for the Tony Booth hit. His tactic of dealing with the Cmme worked wonders.

 

 

[Joey Russ 7,119]

1 hour ago, Joey Russ said:

Well, by the end of 2003, the vast majority of the good picks were already dead by then. Whereas lots of good picks still remain on this list...

 

[drol 10,058]

9 hours ago, Zsa Zsa's leg said:

Gotta give the committee some credit. The past 3 hits were just now making their first appearances and none of them (Maybe Booth) were certs. 

Although they have certainly found a way to get 14 hits, they can't stick the landing for #15. I would be confident but 2003 is proof that we can't get too hopeful. Same with 2015, I am sure November-December 2015 were very tense.

In 2003 there were three months left, in 2017 there are three months left and a lot of excellent picks still breathing. I don't think Michael I, Leah Bracknell, Gord Downie, Nobby Stiles, Jill Gascoine, Billy Graham will all sneak into 2018. At least one of them, at least, will go this winter. I don't see the list going beyond 20 or not even beyond 16, but it can afford 15 without any problem. 

 

I say that mainly because:

 

Mary Tyler Moore was not a dead cert.  She died of pneumonia and that was pretty unexpected.

Joost was expected, but not as a cert.

Rockefeller was just old.

Brady was not a cert by any means.

Noakes was expected, but he could have lived a little more.

Sallis was almost a cert, let's say it.

Christie was a cert, the only real cert to die.

Campbell was almost a cert too.

Forsyth was not expected as he seemed on the mend.

Jerry Lewis was completely unexpected.

Lamotta was old, but surely not a cert.

Liz Dawn was ill, but completely unexpected at the beginning of the year.

Booth was almost a cert.

Hefner was completely unexpected.

 

Only 4/14 we can consider dead certs. At the beginning of the year I thought Bracknell, Downie and Michael were dead certs too, and I have not changed my mind, and they are all still alive. How the hell can you think of surviving the year when you have terminal cancer and are off treatment since March? Come on, on a rational plain  the record is super achievable.

[CastAway 475]

2 hours ago, drol said:

In 2003 there were three months left, in 2017 there are three months left and a lot of excellent picks still breathing. I don't think Michael I, Leah Bracknell, Gord Downie, Nobby Stiles, Jill Gascoine, Billy Graham will all sneak into 2018. At least one of them, at least, will go this winter. I don't see the list going beyond 20 or not even beyond 16, but it can afford 15 without any problem. 

 

I say that mainly because:

 

Mary Tyler Moore was not a dead cert.  She died of pneumonia and that was pretty unexpected.

Joost was expected, but not as a cert.

Rockefeller was just old.

Brady was not a cert by any means.

Noakes was expected, but he could have lived a little more.

Sallis was almost a cert, let's say it.

Christie was a cert, the only real cert to die.

Campbell was almost a cert too.

Forsyth was not expected as he seemed on the mend.

Jerry Lewis was completely unexpected.

Lamotta was old, but surely not a cert.

Liz Dawn was ill, but completely unexpected at the beginning of the year.

Booth was almost a cert.

Hefner was completely unexpected.

 

Only 4/14 we can consider dead certs. At the beginning of the year I thought Bracknell, Downie and Michael were dead certs too, and I have not changed my mind, and they are all still alive. How the hell can you think of surviving the year when you have terminal cancer and are off treatment since March? Come on, on a rational plain  the record is super achievable.

Given Downie's apparently releasing a new solo album or something, I'd say while he's a cert to die soon, that's probably going to happen next year, not this. He could still surprise me, but I'm not nearly as sure about him as I was.

 

That said, Bracknell and Michael are still certs, I agree, and there's a couple that aren't certs but wouldn't surprise me at all if they corked it - Mugabe, for one, and given everything that's been happening with the abdication (of which we admittedly haven't heard much for some time) Akihito wouldn't surprise me either. And I just personally find it difficult to believe that all the centenarians still left will make it to next year.

 

So yeah, a lot of space for more hits this year.

[Joey Russ 7,119]

3 hours ago, drol said:

In 2003 there were three months left, in 2017 there are three months left and a lot of excellent picks still breathing. I don't think Michael I, Leah Bracknell, Gord Downie, Nobby Stiles, Jill Gascoine, Billy Graham will all sneak into 2018. At least one of them, at least, will go this winter. I don't see the list going beyond 20 or not even beyond 16, but it can afford 15 without any problem. 

 

I say that mainly because:

 

Mary Tyler Moore was not a dead cert.  She died of pneumonia and that was pretty unexpected.

Joost was expected, but not as a cert.

Rockefeller was just old.

Brady was not a cert by any means.

Noakes was expected, but he could have lived a little more.

Sallis was almost a cert, let's say it.

Christie was a cert, the only real cert to die.

Campbell was almost a cert too.

Forsyth was not expected as he seemed on the mend.

Jerry Lewis was completely unexpected.

Lamotta was old, but surely not a cert.

Liz Dawn was ill, but completely unexpected at the beginning of the year.

Booth was almost a cert.

Hefner was completely unexpected.

 

Only 4/14 we can consider dead certs. At the beginning of the year I thought Bracknell, Downie and Michael were dead certs too, and I have not changed my mind, and they are all still alive. How the hell can you think of surviving the year when you have terminal cancer and are off treatment since March? Come on, on a rational plain  the record is super achievable.

Lol at calling old people completely unexpected...

[TQR 12,180]

5 hours ago, drol said:

In 2003 there were three months left, in 2017 there are three months left and a lot of excellent picks still breathing. I don't think Michael I, Leah Bracknell, Gord Downie, Nobby Stiles, Jill Gascoine, Billy Graham will all sneak into 2018. At least one of them, at least, will go this winter. I don't see the list going beyond 20 or not even beyond 16, but it can afford 15 without any problem. 

 

I say that mainly because:

 

Mary Tyler Moore was not a dead cert.  She died of pneumonia and that was pretty unexpected.

Joost was expected, but not as a cert.

Rockefeller was just old.

Brady was not a cert by any means.

Noakes was expected, but he could have lived a little more.

Sallis was almost a cert, let's say it.

Christie was a cert, the only real cert to die.

Campbell was almost a cert too.

Forsyth was not expected as he seemed on the mend.

Jerry Lewis was completely unexpected.

Lamotta was old, but surely not a cert.

Liz Dawn was ill, but completely unexpected at the beginning of the year.

Booth was almost a cert.

Hefner was completely unexpected.

 

Only 4/14 we can consider dead certs. At the beginning of the year I thought Bracknell, Downie and Michael were dead certs too, and I have not changed my mind, and they are all still alive. How the hell can you think of surviving the year when you have terminal cancer and are off treatment since March? Come on, on a rational plain  the record is super achievable.

 

Interesting shouts some of the picks may have been, I don't really think any of them would be that unexpected; pretty much all of them take residence on the Deathlist for the simple fact that, to a degree, they are expected to fuck off this mortal coil pretty soon. 

 

I think what is unexpected is that Bracknell's still going. She's amazing! She's essentially now treating aggressive cancer solely with poetry and prancing around a pot in a yurt. 

[maryportfuncity 10,017]

19 minutes ago, TheQuimReaper said:

 

Interesting shouts some of the picks may have been, I don't really think any of them would be that unexpected; pretty much all of them take residence on the Deathlist for the simple fact that, to a degree, they are expected to fuck off this mortal coil pretty soon. 

 

I think what is unexpected is that Bracknell's still going. She's amazing! She's essentially now treating aggressive cancer solely with poetry and prancing around a pot in a yurt. 

 

 

Aye, the question is to what extent future celebrity cancer cases will adopt the poetry, prancing pot and yurt combi to confound our considerations and befuddle our best predictions, or summat

[ebless 202]

My current verdict for the 2017 list

 

Still in real danger

 

Leah Bracknell, King Michael of Romania, Nobby Stiles, Jill Gascoine, George Bush Sr, Valerie Harper

 

Will they, won't they

 

Kirk Douglas, Billy Graham, Duke of Edinburgh, Denis Norden, Pierre Cardin, Hernan Wouk, Gord Downie, Leslie Phillips, Javier Perez De Cueller, Bob Barker

 

Little chance

 

Vera Lynn, Lord Carrington, Stan Lee, Olivia De Haviland, Bob Dole, Jimmy Carter, Robert Mugabe, Betty White, Doug Ellis, Honor Blackman, Ian St John, David Prowse, Pope Benedict, Fats Domino, Hosni Mubarak, Desmond Tutu, Emperor Akihito

 

Safe for 2018

 

Queen Elizabeth II, Sandy Gall, Gay Byrne

 

[Joey Russ 7,119]

It has been pretty quiet in all fronts lately, with the only real news on the survivors lately is that Valerie Harper’s medicine is starting to fail and another photo of Leah Bracknell, which is likely an early pick. However, I think they may both make it to 2018 at this point tbh, especially since there’s only 2 and a half months left in the year. That said, the winter always does seem to finish a few people off due to how cold it usually is. 

And by the way, anyone who’s saying that Leah Bracknell will likely die in the following two and a half months but Gord Downie won’t die are being hypocritical. We haven’t received real health news from either of them in a while. We haven’t seen a recent photo of either of them, so I think both could easily die before the years end...

[Joey Russ 7,119]

I think I’m starting to go insane. I mean, I’m pretty sure that constantly looking up celebrities and seeing whether they’re dead or not isn’t really a healthy thing to do, but I keep doing it over and over again anyways...

[gcreptile 10,234]

2 hours ago, Joey Russ said:

I think I’m starting to go insane. I mean, I’m pretty sure that constantly looking up celebrities and seeing whether they’re dead or not isn’t really a healthy thing to do, but I keep doing it over and over again anyways...

You can't get them all. Take a day off sometimes. The links stay for a while.