Derby Dead Pool 2018

[Joey Russ 7,227]

1 minute ago, Predictor said:

Title-winning picks: These are the ones that guarantee high scores by being terminally ill, relatively young and left a sufficient mark in Britain to get a write-up in newspapers such as BBC

But the title winning picks don't always come from the big newspapers. Andrew Millwall, for instance, was only briefly mentioned in a Sky Sports article, while Yosra El-Essaway only got a article by the tabloid The Sun. 

[Joey Russ 7,227]

I've just twigged that my entry was already confirmed before the new year, so I don't have to worry about whether my entry was received or not...

[msc 18,472]

Yes, I got a very nice confirmation email yesterday, too.

[RadGuy 1,614]

Here's what I think of my picks:

 

Leah Bracknell: Starting to be an outlier like Christie, but she will likely die, like Christie. 85%
Patrick Cryne: Terminal cancer since the spring, doesn't expect to see the end of Barnsley's season, and recently sold the team. 100%
Rayya Elias: Not gonna lie, I've been starting to feel a whiff of fraud about her. Her depressing cancer love story seems like a huge lesbian wellness author publicity stunt for their hipster vegan yoga-doing audience. But more likely than not, she's just lucky to have survived so long and will go soon. 90%
Dean Francis: Hmm, wasn't supposed to make the starting line, but looks like he ended up taking the chemo option and is doing fine for now. 75%
Greg Gilbert (JOKER): Stage IV bowel cancer for over a year, too ill to make the Christmas light lighting in November. Soon to be on the clock, imho. 95%
Vanessa Goodwin: Retired, brain cancer, bit of an obit risk. 90%
Jose Jose: Went from lock to dropped to lock. Pancreatic cancer, then remission, then mysteriously hospitalized? 65%
Tessa Jowell: Probably an end-of-year death, but those are always risky. Could see the next year. 70%
Dilip Kumar: Looks like a corpse. Surely this has to be his year? 95%
Devin Lima: Rare stage IV cancer. But he's young and was recently diagnosed, so by no means a dead-cert. 85%
Philomena Lynott: 87 and refusing treatment for lung cancer. Can't believe she made the starting line. 100%
John McCain: Looking frailer and frailer with glioblastoma diagnosed in the summer. 95%
Liam Miller: Young'un with pancreatic cancer, not much info on severity. But I like my chances. 80%
Efrain Rios Montt: Could be a fraud, but I thought he had an outside chance of being a unique (and nobody mentioned him yet, not even Drol's dictator team or Heef's politics team). Probably not a unique anyway, but he's still a 91-year-old with dementia... apparently. 50%
Charlotte Rae: Looking worse by the month with bone cancer. 95%
Fernando Ricksen: Nearing ALS life expectancy, pessimistic news coverage the past couple months. 70%
Stefan Karl Stefansson: Wasn't supposed to include him, as I thought his remission could last a while yet, but popped him in the last minute. More of a defensive choice. 50%
Nobby Stiles: He's had severe dementia forever. Surely this has to be his year? 90%
Marieke Vervoort: Struggled to find room for her, but I just had to. Regret not jokering her now that I see Joey, DDT, and DI did. But euthanasia picks are risky. For all we know, she could suddenly have the will to live again. Probably not though. 90%
Bobby Zarin: Thyroid cancer, death scare in July, hospitalized again recently, wife's been posting nostalgic photos on Instagram. 80%

[Sean 6,327]

13 minutes ago, Phantom of the Midway said:

Here's what I think of my picks:

 

Leah Bracknell: Starting to be an outlier like Christie, but she will likely die, like Christie. 85%
Patrick Cryne: Terminal cancer since the spring, doesn't expect to see the end of Barnsley's season, and recently sold the team. 100%
Rayya Elias: Not gonna lie, I've been starting to feel a whiff of fraud about her. Her depressing cancer love story seems like a huge lesbian wellness author publicity stunt for their hipster vegan yoga-doing audience. But more likely than not, she's just lucky to have survived so long and will go soon. 90%
Dean Francis: Hmm, wasn't supposed to make the starting line, but looks like he ended up taking the chemo option and is doing fine for now. 75%
Greg Gilbert (JOKER): Stage IV bowel cancer for over a year, too ill to make the Christmas light lighting in November. Soon to be on the clock, imho. 95%
Vanessa Goodwin: Retired, brain cancer, bit of an obit risk. 90%
Jose Jose: Went from lock to dropped to lock. Pancreatic cancer, then remission, then mysteriously hospitalized? 65%
Tessa Jowell: Probably an end-of-year death, but those are always risky. Could see the next year. 70%
Dilip Kumar: Looks like a corpse. Surely this has to be his year? 95%
Devin Lima: Rare stage IV cancer. But he's young and was recently diagnosed, so by no means a dead-cert. 85%
Philomena Lynott: 87 and refusing treatment for lung cancer. Can't believe she made the starting line. 100%
John McCain: Looking frailer and frailer with glioblastoma diagnosed in the summer. 95%
Liam Miller: Young'un with pancreatic cancer, not much info on severity. But I like my chances. 80%
Efrain Rios Montt: Could be a fraud, but I thought he had an outside chance of being a unique (and nobody mentioned him yet, not even Drol's dictator team or Heef's politics team). Probably not a unique anyway, but he's still a 91-year-old with dementia... apparently. 50%
Charlotte Rae: Looking worse by the month with bone cancer. 95%
Fernando Ricksen: Nearing ALS life expectancy, pessimistic news coverage the past couple months. 70%
Stefan Karl Stefansson: Wasn't supposed to include him, as I thought his remission could last a while yet, but popped him in the last minute. More of a defensive choice. 50%
Nobby Stiles: He's had severe dementia forever. Surely this has to be his year? 90%
Marieke Vervoort: Struggled to find room for her, but I just had to. Regret not jokering her now that I see Joey, DDT, and DI did. But euthanasia picks are risky. For all we know, she could suddenly have the will to live again. Probably not though. 90%
Bobby Zarin: Thyroid cancer, death scare in July, hospitalized again recently, wife's been posting nostalgic photos on Instagram. 80%

Rayya looks very ill now on Liz Gilbert Instagram

 

I had Vervoot as my Joker too.32 Points if she euthanasia herself.I don't think she is bluffing about it either.If she dies of natural causes still a fair few points.

[Sean 6,327]

Will post latest pics of Rayya in her thread.

[Spade_Cooley 9,527]

I get "Summer Girls" stuck in my head every time I open a DDP-related spreadsheet or database and see Devin Lima's name loom large. This is hell.

[msc 18,472]

Ok, I'll join in. This is what I think of Rad Guy's picks.

 

(DEAD in 2018 or not...)

Brackers - She's not an outlier, an outlier is post-18 months and she still needs to reach March. She needs to reach December just to equal Errol Christie. DEAD

Cryne - A case of months not years. DEAD

Elias - I dont think shes a fraud. Remember Swayze, same age, lived 18 months in the same time period and Elias was diagnosed circa August 2016. DEAD

Francis - Reading earlier news, the prognosis was 2-3 years WITH chemo. He's on chemo after long time off. Think that's shortened his prognosis, but 2018 is still a big call. ALIVE

Gilbert - "Nothing can be done" since December 2016? Likely DEAD.

Goodwin - Looks hellish, grim prognosis. DEAD with obit issues.

Jose Jose - Err, that hospitalisation was for the flu, and he apparently got better? Pancreatic can come back any time, for now ALIVE

Jowell - Looked like a ghost at Christmas, dire prognosis, DEAD

Kumar - Really old but who knows. ALIVE

Lima - Def dead by 2021 the year is the big issue. ALIVE but unsure.

Lynott - Surprised still alive. DEAD within weeks io

McCain - Grim prognosis, grim illness, DEAD

Miller - Grim illness, if you saw MON in November you'd have thought Miller had weeks left, I say ALIVE on age but a really quick downturn wouldn't shock.

Montt - I dont trust these picks. ALIVE

Rae - Stats have her dead by Rumble time, she might last longer, but not as far as Christmas. DEAD

Ricksen - Think you've gone too early here, he's still out and about, and only just passed 4 years. ALIVE but a top 2019 pick.

Stefansson - Terminally ill with a low prognosis cancer, question is not if but when. DEAD (or he reaches 2 years and is a huge outlier)

Stiles - All the news sounds ominous. I think he'll be DEAD.

Vervoort - I was unsure she'd go for it (imo people who talk up suicide/euthanasia a lot are those who back away from it), but everyone else think she will so I am probably wrong.  DEAD

Zarin - Hard to tell with these reality people. ALIVE

 

[Spade_Cooley 9,527]

Did briefly consider trying to exorcise those demons with a "Summer Girls" theme team:

 

JOKER: Devin Lima (obviously)

2. Brad Fischetti (the member of LFO who isn't Devin Lima or the dead one)

3. -7. The five members of New Kids On The Block

8. Mike Jeffries (former CEO of Abercrombie and Fitch)

9. Michael J Fox (was Alex P Keaton)

10. Macauley Culkin (was in Home Alone)

11. Kevin Bacon (loved by LFO, except Footloose)

12. Larry Byrd (jersey 33)

13. Dick Beach (clown, played Willie Whistle who can't speak baby)

14. Carole Cook (last remaining major cast member from Mr Limpet)

15. Rakim (came in the door, said it before)

16 - 20: Five members of New Edition

 

Sub: The other member of New Edition

[msc 18,472]

I have never heard this song before, and feel glad for it given the above.

[Spade_Cooley 9,527]

Goddamn it's hard being the only xennial on this forum.

[Joey Russ 7,227]

Oh, if people are doing there likelihoods here’s what I think of mine: 

Leah Bracknell - Think she’s a goner, and I think she’ll die sometime in early March like Sam Simon or Martin Crowe. But there’s always a chance she’ll live longer than expected. 90%

Matt Cappotelli - More of an end of the year death, but he will be worth a lot of points if he dies. 80%

John Cocks - Think he’s a cert to die, especially since he’s doing no treatment and is waiting it out. Obit is trickier, but he already got a Mail mention and he’s actually a real celebrity unlike Suisala, so 75%

Patrick Cryne - I will be surprised if he’s here at spring due to go all the factors that RadGuy mentioned. 99%

Rayya Elias - An outlier for pancreatic cancer rather than a fraud imo, but I wouldn’t call her death a guarantee. But I think it’s likely, so 85%

Jacqui Forster - This is my biggest punt pick. She’s terminally ill, and she got a Guardian nod, but it’ll be interesting to see if they pick up on her again after she dies. Exact age may be an issue as well, but Death Impends said she was in her mid 50s, so I’ll say 85% of death, 40% of obit

Dean Francis - His prognosis may be January 2019, but he already wasted a few months on crowdfunding bullshit which isn’t working, so I think he’s dead before 2019. 95%

Stuart Fraser - Not entirely sure how ill he is, but lung cancer can be a bastard even when we thought people were doing okay. 75%

Greg Gilbert - There was already some news that we thought he might not see out the year, and if he’s still alive in 2019, he would have passed two years. 90%

Vanessa Goodwin - Stepping down may have hindered her obit chances, but her prognosis is grim enough. Plus, DDT picked her. 80%

Clive James - He can no longer writing for the Guardian. That sends a red flag in my head. 85%

Tessa Jowell - Looks terrible at her public appearance in December. Has the same cancer as Gord Downie, except she’s older. 90%

John McCain - Continues to keep looking worse in photos, and also has the same cancer as Jowell, but he’s in his 80s. He may have better health care than most of the others, but his odds of seeing 2019 are very grim. 95%

Liam Miller - Already has pancreatic cancer which can be very deadly, and there were already reports that he is gravely ill. He may be younger, but pancreatic cancer can still be very deadly. 95% 

Linda Nolan - Already regretting putting her on my team, especially since I put her on the same way that Al-Baghdadi was put on last year, and I agree with others that she’ll see the year out. That said, Bernie Nolan didn’t really look like a good pick either, and she was dead by July. Still, she’s more likely to survive than not. 30%

Fernando Ricksen - He might be 2019 if he follows Joosts timeline, but I think he’s iller than we think. 70%

Mark E Smith - Admittedly another punt pick, but my gut feeling is that he’s iller than what is already known. 60%

Stefan Karl Stefansson - Metastasis is gone but the primary tumor is still there. His cancer is aggressive as well, so I think he’s more likely to die than not, but as likely as Greg Gilbert. 80%

Morgan Tsvangirai - Many of his supporters are calling for him to step down, so I think he’s pretty ill right now if allies are calling for that. 85%

Marieke Vervoort - She doesn’t strike me as the kind of changing her mind after euthanasia papers are signed, especially since she is having more bad days than good days. She’s clearly suffering a lot and, tbh, I doubt she’ll still be here in a week. My only 100%. 

B Team analysis coming later. 

[msc 18,472]

I don't get the Linda/Bernie comparison for now. Linda's cancer hasn't spread yet but likely will at some point. Bernie's cancer had already spread to her lungs and bones by Christmas 2012.

[Sean 6,327]

Vervoot is an atheist so the God aspect of sin won't change her mind.There is no medical progress on her condition.She is in absolute agony and it will only get worse.She is almost certain to do it.Says medical professionals keep asking if she is sure and she keeps saying yes.If I was her I would do it.The suffering she is enduring is clearly unimaginable

 

[Sean 6,327]

Linda's cancer has spread from breast to hip but Berni's was in the lungs liver bones and brain a year before she died.So yeah Bernie's was far more advanced but she defied all medical and deadpoolers predictions.

 

[Joey Russ 7,227]

That’s why I need to put a note on my longlist: Don’t put people you never really considered before on your team in the final days, unless you find some news on them that really do make them a good pick. 

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,344]

13 hours ago, Joey Russ said:

You know it's going to be real interesting next year, cause if most, if not all the gambles come into fruition, I could easily see a podium place for me by the end of the year. That said, I can easily see myself not getting any of my gambles and fall out of the top 20 next year. But there certainly is risk involved if you want to win, and there is lot of risky teams this year. DDT, for example, has a lot of the names that he mentioned himself on the forum, and a lot of 70 - 80 year olds with no drop 40 chance, as well as not going for any FFBI types this year (a gamble that I am taking myself). GCReptile didn't go for Stefansson or Gilbert, and a lot of his team are could die tomorrow or could die in a few years type names. Plus, he got slightly unlucky with losing two picks and having to replace them with 80 - 90 year olds with no drop 40 chance. But people have won with picks those ages who didn't make the drop 40 as recently as last year (Mario Soares). So I honestly think it's going to be a while before we can start to see who the real contenders are because there are so many gambles on most teams...

Any thoughts to give on the three Crumble teams given that your in such a chatty and analytical mood please? 

[Death Impends 7,976]

Just now, Sean said:

Linda's cancer has spread from breast to hip but Berni's was in the lungs liver bones and brain a year before she died.So yeah Bernie's was far more advanced but she defied all medical and deadpoolers predictions.

 

 

Didn't a lot of teams take a "she'll see another year" punt on Bernie the year she died though?

[msc 18,472]

Just now, Death Impends said:

 

Didn't a lot of teams take a "she'll see another year" punt on Bernie the year she died though?

 

Yeah, and it makes no sense to me.

 

I didn't pick her either, and that makes no sense to me either! I mean, I read the bloody "it's in my lungs, bones and possibly brain now" article, told someone else to pick her based on that, and didn't pick her myself. Bah. Humbug.

[Grim Up North 3,726]

 

4 minutes ago, msc said:

I don't get the Linda/Bernie comparison for now. Linda's cancer hasn't spread yet but likely will at some point. Bernie's cancer had already spread to her lungs and bones by Christmas 2012.

Thought it was in her hip?

Anyhow I'm regretting putting her in my team now too along with Simon Ricketts! 

 

I was never very happy with Dean Francis but you've got to pick somebody - I might find at end of year I should have gone safer and sacrificed a few possible points but some lessons need learnt the hard way!

[Sir Creep 7,070]

BTW, it was 17-year old Dana Scattan who I was willing to go to war over the 'must be 18 on Jan 1' rule.  Talk about slam dunks!  I still feel so long as they are 18 at death, you get points, otherwise of course not.  It's the risk we take, just like any of our selections, for that matter.  We had this issue with Malala Yousafzi a couple years back -- a Nobel Prize winner who was already taking bullets and we couldn't put on our teams.  Absurd!  Anyway, Sorry you couldn't play along this year, Ms. Scattan.  I should have named my DDP team after you in your honour.  
Maybe the "Dana Scattan 18th Birthday Party Attendees"?  Or would that be a DDP name reject?

SC

[msc 18,472]

Yeah, but there's different types of breast cancer stage IV and some are faster than others.

 

Anyhow, Joey should be delighted given how shit I am at DDP prognosis, practically gift wrapping him 9 points.

[Eesti 151]

What are the obit chances for former presidents (for example Estonia)?

[maryportfuncity 10,646]

Ah, total grind at work today so some banter would be welcome: 

 

 

Carkers Convention 2018

 

 

Dean Francis –JOKER (Nailed on and surely good for BBC sport and or local obit)

 

Paul Alcock - Given the most famous moment of his refereeing career surely nailed on for a basic obit and every bit of health news last year suggested 2019 is a near-impossible ask.

 

Colin Baddiel - Bit of a hunch based on the state of his health when his famous son filmed him in 2016. Likely mentioned in the press if he does go and he's got a challenge to make it to next year.

 

Leah Bracknell - Drop 40 shoo in and famous enough for no obit worries. 

 

Johnny Clegg - FFS he was even honest about why his tour was a farewell. Obit wise I'm looking at the fact Steely Dan members make the national television news and gambling some beardy broadsheet writing type will see us right for the q/o

 

Patrick Cryne - He admits he's on the way; high profile enough in sports world for points

 

Raya Elias - Did well to be breathing today; loads of us will hunt the obit the second we know she's potential points

 

Denis Goldberg - Bad cancer and fairly advanced. Given his mateyship with Mandela, nailed on obit

 

Billy Graham - Aw FFS; is there anything more to say. Biggs and Gabor went in the end

 

Eric Harrison - Sports obitable for sure; apparently ill enough to be highly likely this year.

 

Robin Herd - Highly obitable and all the tips hereabouts about him being "not well at all" came from a usually trustable source

 

Tessa Jowell - Be rude not to; late arrival to the serious considerations of 2017 but the health signs suggested it could be a shoo-in later this year. 

 

John McCain - Near certain 2018 toast and Drop 40 candidate.

 

Catherine Nevin - Ill enough and decent(ish) obit chances

 

Olivia Newton John - Weighed this one up; just about capable of cheating us with a combi of positive thinking and expensive new age mumbo jumbo but she's seriously ill and over 360 scoring days remain

 

Linda Nolan - Long game case and I did weigh this one up too. But...a hunch kinda thing. Not the luckiest family health wise, eh?

 

Stefan Karl Stefansson - Can't really add much more to other comments. Highly favoured pick for very good reason. 

 

Nobby Stiles - Family are candid about exactly how far gone he was last year. Oldster but Drop 40 compensation points surely await those who call this right. 

 

Marieke Vervoort - Put it this way; she's popular Deathrace joker material and for that to count we'd be looking for a demise sometime in the first ten weeks of the year. Serious dead poolers have risked jokers on her.

 

Tiffany Youngs - Nobody's pretending the diagnosis is other than dire. Obit wise it's tabloid snippet material, surely

 

 

 

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,344]

32 minutes ago, Eesti said:

What are the obit chances for former presidents (for example Estonia)?

High. Especially in British 'broadsheet' newspapers like The Times and Daily Telegraph.