Thoughts On The 2018 List

[Sean 6,311]

On 1/18/2018 at 11:16, Bibliogryphon said:

These are the seventeen that I think would be best bets to equal the record. Picked 21 names on first run through so there is potential there.

 

Kirk Douglas

Leah Bracknell 

Herman Wouk

Billy Graham

John McCain

Stirling Moss

Tessa Jowell 

Bob Dole

Leslie Phillips 

Jill Gascoigne 

Vera Lynn

George H W Bush

Pope Benedict XVI

Neil Simon

Denis Norden

Jimmy Greaves

Clive James 

Bracknell McCain and Jowell are certs.All the others are in real danger.Herman Wouk looked like he was too frail to do anything for himself last year.Bob Dole looks like he has already died.Billy Graham is a mystery to us all and is becoming the New Zsa Zsa.Clive James likewise is becoming incredible for his longevity.He has clearly gone downhill a lot though.Simon was said to be mute from Alzheimers in August and Gascoine is also in the late stages of the disease.Moss is clearly very damaged by recent illnesses.Bush senior has had more hospitalizations than I care to remember.All the others are either so old or very frail.Hey maybe the record can still be broken.

[Sean 6,311]

The 17 most likely to die and break the record:

1)Leah Bracknell:16 months into a stage 4 lung diagnosis and reliant on shamanism.Enough said.

2)Tessa Jowell:Glioblastoma diagnosed 8 months ago.No conventional treatment options left.Can no longer speak fluently clearly thinner and frailer also.

3)John McCain:Glioblastoma 6 onths in.Not been seen in congress for awhile.Reports of second tumor.

4)Billy Graham:Parkinsons persistent infections on Oxygen since 2011 and bedridden.Eyesight and hearing also failing.

5)Herman Wouk:Nearly 103 and wheelchair and oxygen cylinder bound.Sold his house.

6)Clive James:Has had emphysema leaukemia and kidney failure since January 2010.Has been in and out of hospital has brought a wheelchair and has near enough stopped working.

7)Jill Gascoine:Has been in a nursing home for several years in the late stages of dementia.By all accounts is not aware of anything.Also had kidney cancer in 1997.

8)George H.w Bush:Parkinsonism and persistent respiratory infections.

9)Barbara Bush:Several previous infections and reliant on a nasal canula.

10)Leslie Philips:Had a stroke several years ago as well as a non malignant growth on his nose.Had a seizure and suffered a cardiac arrest in 2015.Pictured in a wheelchair looking extremely frail in 2016.

11)Kirk Douglas:Had major stroke in 1996 affecting speech.Was ina wheelchair at recentgolden globes ceremony.Also incrediblly ancient.

12)Bob Dole:Recent hospitalisation and looks very gaunt and frail.Has problems with eyes and arthritis.

13)Javier Perez de Cuellar:98 wheelchair bound and reportedly has memory problems.

14)Neil Simon:Reportedly mute from dementia as of August 2017.Had a kidney transplant in 2004.

15)Stirling Moss:Spent 134 days in Hospital last year.Retired from public life after a lack of recovery.Seems similar to Bruce Forsyth.

16)Prunella Scales:Has had dementia for nearly two decades.Hints of deterioration at the last series of Great Canal Journey`s.

17)Valerie Harper:Metastatic lung cancer now in the meninges.Hints last year that treatment was no longer working or at least losing effectiveness.

 

[Death Impends 7,955]

See this as a "gets to 12 by hook or crook" type year. And we already had one of the hooks or crooks. I think Brackers, McCain, Jowell, Dole, Moss, and Wouk are all going down this year.

[Joey Russ 7,220]

I would agree that there aren't as many very strong picks as last year (last year there was Joost, Noakes, Christie, Campbell, Forsyth, Booth, Downie, and Michael). A lot of the hits had to come in the form of a bit of a punt pick, ie, not as strong as a pick. But there were enough of them to help them break the record last year. Here, there aren't as many potential 50/50 picks or strong picks as last year that would look like it would turn into a successful year. But if all the cards fall correctly, it might (just might) break the record. But there's always a few decent picks that survive into the next year, so that's very unlikely imo...

[msc 18,436]

7 hours ago, Death Impends said:

See this as a "gets to 12 by hook or crook" type year. And we already had one of the hooks or crooks. I think Brackers, McCain, Jowell, Dole, Moss, and Wouk are all going down this year.

 

It'll be 2013. Punt pick dies in January, old timer and cancer sufferer gone by mid-February, lull, big name around March/April,  then the "certs" all go around May-July, lull, finish the year off with a few big names = 13/50.

[earl 69]

How the hell is not Rios Montt on the list?

[Bibliogryphon 9,569]

11 minutes ago, earl said:

How the hell is not Rios Montt on the list?

Well Thank you for that name. I had to look him up.

 

For some reason I was unable to name all the past presidents of Guatamala.

 

He is more DDP or Deathlist cup than Deathlist main.

[earl 69]

6 hours ago, Bibliogryphon said:

Well Thank you for that name. I had to look him up.

 

For some reason I was unable to name all the past presidents of Guatamala.

 

He is more DDP or Deathlist cup than Deathlist main.

He is a famous dictator like Mugabe and with more health issues, but Mugabe has been on the list and Rios Montt not.

[msc 18,436]

Mugabe is much more of a known figure over here than Montt.

 

Given US history in that part of the world, I suspect it might be the reverse in the USA though.

[Death Impends 7,955]

Plus Mugabe was in power for 37 years, dictators who rule that long tend to be recognizable. Rios Montt was in power for one year during the 1980s.

[Joey Russ 7,220]

8 minutes ago, msc said:

Mugabe is much more of a known figure over here than Montt.

 

Given US history in that part of the world, I suspect it might be the reverse in the USA though.

Nah, I think Mugabe’s very long dictatorship rules over the one year for Montt. At least I’m more familiar to Mugabe over Montt...

[Sean 6,311]

6 hours ago, earl said:

How the hell is not Rios Montt on the list?

Because I have no idea who he is despite being a prolific deadpooler.

[ImissMontpellier 73]

Given that Valéry Giscard d’Estaing’s daughter has died, he might die this year. he will be 92 in February

[Prophet 251]

On 1.1.2018 at 13:58, Weebl said:

Didn't actually realise how active Charles Aznavour and Dick Van Dyke still are yet I picked them for my own shadow list!

 

Ronnie Wood, Paul Gascoigne and Mark E. Smith are all IMHO poor picks.

Now Mark E Smith was our first hit.

[Sir Creep 7,070]

On 1/1/2018 at 02:11, Sir Creep said:

I believe I posted this in the wrong thread, oh well.

The holdovers are decent picks, the new additions however I find truly awful, save for 2 or 3.  

Joni Mitchell and Mark E Smith?  Maybe DL 2021.  Talk about ‘Inverse DP ready’...

SC

Well if my post holds any further misinformative weight, Joni Mitchell should be next to go.

SC

[Sir Creep 7,070]

On 1/1/2018 at 09:57, drol said:

It's my turn to piss Sir Creep, I think:

 

Kirk Douglas: at 102, having suffered a heart attack 20 years ago and being a legend of DL, death can not be far away. He has a good chance to die, I say 63%

Leah Bracknell: She cheated Death last year. Can't do the same again. 98%

Herman Wouk: Wheelchair bound, 103, nasal cannula. Whiìy is he still here? 85%

Olivia de Havilland: perfect health. Sharp and active. Forget her for 2018, bad pick. 15%

Prince Philip: He's had some health issues, infections, heart problems but seems to be OK nowadays. Not more than 35%

Billy Graham: Unbelievable he is still here. He's had Parkinson's for 26 years! 89%

Betty White: No, forget her. Bad pick. 15%

John McCain: He seems a dead cert, not like Bracknell, but near. 90%

Linda Nolan: Yes, she has metastatic cancer and all, but she is not in immediate danger. I'd say 65%

Lord Carrington: Perfect health. Bad pick. 26%

Javier Perez de Cuellar: Frail and wheelchair bound. Almost surely his year. 79%

Pierre Cardin: Good health and still active. Bad pick. 30%

Stan Lee: No danger for him, forget him again. Bad Pick. 24%

Stirling Moss. Has spent months in hospital with infection. Great pick. 88%

Tessa Jowell: Glioblastoma. Almost no chances of seeing 2019. 96%

Doris Day: Sharp as a tick and healthy. Bad pick. 32%

Bob Dole: Pressure problems and heart disease make him a good candidate. 63%

Bob Barker: Great shape and The National Enquirer just gave him another 10 years to live. Bad pick. 31%

Prunella Scales: How the hell? She is still in early stages of Alzheimer's and relatively young. No Wayyyyyyy. Bad bad pick. 20%

Jimmy Carter: He has beat cancer. Seems to be ok. 38%

Leslie Phillips: Multiple strokes and seizures, wheelchair bound, prone to pneumonia. It's your year, Leslie. 86%

Jill Gascoine: Late stages of Alzheimer's. Has good possibilities indeed. 76%

Vera Lynn: Forget her. 21%

Robert Mugabe: No No No. Bad pick.15%

George Bush Snr.: pneumonia and Parkinson's. He's hard, but it could be his year, finally. 82%

Charles Aznavour: AAARGH! Still performing reguarly, great health physical and mental. BAD BAD BAD PICK. 12%

Henry Kissinger: No health issues, only old. 31%

Honor Blackman: AGAAAAAIIIN! BAD BAD Pick. 15%

Barbara Bush: She does not look so terrible. I think she still has some years to live. 41%

Dick van Dyke: Performing everywhere at 92! BAAAAD Pick. 12%

Stanley Baxter: No news of him for a long time. Seems ominous. 68%

Valery Giscard d'Estaing: Active, healthy, sharp. Why the hell did you pick him? Bad pick. 21%

Mel Brooks: Still out and about, death is very far. Bad bad pick. 14%

Benedict XVI: Bla bla. Too early. 28%

Neil Simon: Advanced Alzheimer's will make it. Great pick. 72%

June Brown: Old and random. 37%

Hosni Mubarak: Sorry, but this fraudster will go on for year. Wasted spot. 12%

Sean Connery: He looks great and has no health issues. Forget him. Bad pick. 22%

Louis Farrakhan: We all want to see him dead, but he appears to be in great shape. Bad pick. 23%

Denis Norden: Blind and retired. The end is near. 88%

Ian St. John: Picked over Nobby Stiles! Bad pick. 23%

Jimmy Greaves: Yes, strokes, cancer, bla bla. 58%

Valerie Harper: Cancer will get her, but not a cert for 2018. 55%

Clive James: Finally his year, certainly. 89%

Stephen Hawking: He is a robot ad robot do not die. 33%

Ronnie Wood: Worst. Pick. Ever. 5%

Olivia Newton-John: Metastatic cancer, but I do not think she will die. Let's say 65%

Joni Mitchell: Stroke and frail, but the decline seems to be more mental (Morgellons) than physical. 44%

Paul Gascoigne: Oh, guys, why? Bad bad bad bad pick. 6%

Mark E. Smith: he has some problems. What we do not know, but that's enough. 61%

 

Overall normal list. 13 Hits seems legit.

 

I agree with your entire post, it was well thought out and stated with aplomb.  
You have taken the Sir Creep 'how to win friends and influence people' course, and it shows!
SC

[Weebl 216]

19 hours ago, Prophet said:

Now Mark E Smith was our first hit.

 

I really underestimated how ill Mark E. Smith actually was.

 

I saw him live in October 2016, and while he certainly didn't look good back then, he definitely didn't look at death's door either. Can you blame me for making the mistake I did?

[Deadpool 166]

Well ,  1/17

[Deadpool 166]

On 25/01/2018 at 00:30, Sean said:

The 17 most likely to die and break the record:

1)Leah Bracknell:16 months into a stage 4 lung diagnosis and reliant on shamanism.Enough said.

2)Tessa Jowell:Glioblastoma diagnosed 8 months ago.No conventional treatment options left.Can no longer speak fluently clearly thinner and frailer also.

3)John McCain:Glioblastoma 6 onths in.Not been seen in congress for awhile.Reports of second tumor.

4)Billy Graham:Parkinsons persistent infections on Oxygen since 2011 and bedridden.Eyesight and hearing also failing.

5)Herman Wouk:Nearly 103 and wheelchair and oxygen cylinder bound.Sold his house.

6)Clive James:Has had emphysema leaukemia and kidney failure since January 2010.Has been in and out of hospital has brought a wheelchair and has near enough stopped working.

7)Jill Gascoine:Has been in a nursing home for several years in the late stages of dementia.By all accounts is not aware of anything.Also had kidney cancer in 1997.

8)George H.w Bush:Parkinsonism and persistent respiratory infections.

9)Barbara Bush:Several previous infections and reliant on a nasal canula.

10)Leslie Philips:Had a stroke several years ago as well as a non malignant growth on his nose.Had a seizure and suffered a cardiac arrest in 2015.Pictured in a wheelchair looking extremely frail in 2016.

11)Kirk Douglas:Had major stroke in 1996 affecting speech.Was ina wheelchair at recentgolden globes ceremony.Also incrediblly ancient.

12)Bob Dole:Recent hospitalisation and looks very gaunt and frail.Has problems with eyes and arthritis.

13)Javier Perez de Cuellar:98 wheelchair bound and reportedly has memory problems.

14)Neil Simon:Reportedly mute from dementia as of August 2017.Had a kidney transplant in 2004.

15)Stirling Moss:Spent 134 days in Hospital last year.Retired from public life after a lack of recovery.Seems similar to Bruce Forsyth.

16)Prunella Scales:Has had dementia for nearly two decades.Hints of deterioration at the last series of Great Canal Journey`s.

17)Valerie Harper:Metastatic lung cancer now in the meninges.Hints last year that treatment was no longer working or at least losing effectiveness.

 

1 of 17

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,337]

I just cannot shake off a niggling feeling that another death and thus a hit for the committee is coming very soon indeed. 

[Bibliogryphon 9,569]

Today is day 68 for the year. In two of the past five years we were at four deaths by this stage but for last years record breaker. The third hit did not come until 20th March.

[Joey Russ 7,220]

Well, the third death came before the 20th alright. 

Tbh, I think this year feels like one of those years that will do better than average, which is about 12. I have a feeling they'll get at least 13, but gut feeling is that it'll be no more than 15 hits...

[Book 3,551]

When will the line "previous year" be filled out? Thanks.

[Bibliogryphon 9,569]

With Bill Maynard's death I am ahead of the committee for once.

[manuel 30]

Now that we are a quarter of the way through the year I decided to do analysis of the remaining picks.

 

Kirk Douglas: Extremely old and looked very frail at the golden globes.

Leah Bracknell: Terminally ill with stage 4 lung cancer and looked very gaunt in last appearance. Has been very quiet recently.

Herman Wouk: Extremely old and reliant on a nasal canula in July last year. Recently sold his house, suggesting he's gone into a care home

Olivia de Havilland: Extremely old but still looks in good shape, but at her age she could easily go in her sleep.

Prince Philip: Old and now retired. Looks quite frail and has recently missed a number of public appearances due to ill health.

Betty White: Her age appears to be starting to catch up with her.

John McCain: Terminally ill with glioblastoma. Has not attended the Senate in several months and looks frail in pictures.

Linda Nolan: Terminal breast cancer, but still seems to be doing ok. However, as she has said she will not undergo life-extending chemotherapy I could see her going downhill quickly.

Lord Carrington: Old but still looks in good shape

Javier Perez de Cuellar: Old and wheelchair bound. Also reportedly suffering from memory loss.

Pierre Cardin: Old but health unknown

Stan Lee: Lost his wife last year and recently suffered pneumonia. Has had a number of financial and legal issues recently.

Stirling Moss: Spent several months in hospital due to a chest infection last year. Has now retired from public life and had his website closed down due to continued ill health.

Tessa Jowell: Terminally ill with glioblastoma, looked awful in recent interviews.

Doris Day: Old and not appearing in public much but could just be retired.

Bob Dole: Looked very frail in recent picture

Bob Barker: Appears to be doing ok.

Prunella Scales: Has Alzheimer's and appears to be declining but seems not to be in as bad of shape as Jill Gascoine or Neil Simon.

Jimmy Carter: Looks in good health for his age but it would not surprise me if his cancer returned

Leslie Phillips: Suffered a stroke and seizure and has rarely appeared in public since then. When has been seen he has looked extremely frail and been wheelchair bound.

Jill Gascoine: Stated in November 2016 as being in the final stages of Alzheimer's by her husband

Vera Lynn: Extremely old and seems quite frail

Robert Mugabe: Little information on  him since he lost power.

George Bush Sr: Has suffered from parkinsons for years and being hospitalised a number of times. Now wheelchair-bound and looks very frail, surely can't last much longer

Charles Aznavour: Old but still active, bad pick.

Henry Kissinger: Old but still seems active.

Honor Blackman: Old but seems to be doing ok.

Barbara Bush: Was pictured using a nasal canula last year. Also likely to be widowed soon.

Dick van Dyke: Old but still very active and healthy, terrible pick.

Stanley Baxter: Old but nothing known about his health.

Valery Giscard d'Estaing: Seems to be doing ok.

Mel Brooks: Old but still active, bad pick.

Pope Benedict XVI: Said by his brother to be suffering from a degenerative disease. The Vatican deny this but I trust his brother over them.

Neil Simon: Over 90 and mute as a result of Alzheimer's as well as having a kidney transplant.

June Brown: Old but still seems active.

Hosni Mubarak: Suspect his health issues were exaggerated but little information is available:

Sean Connery: Reportedly frail but looked in good shape at the US Open last year.

Louis Farrakhan: Relatively young by deathlist standards and still seems to be in good health, bad pick.

Denis Norden: Old and apparently frail

Ian St John: Given a tough diagnosis but seems to be doing well.

Jimmy Greaves: Suffered a severe stroke a few years ago and looks very frail. Also remarried his ex-wife last year despite them having been reunited for decades so was perhaps done for inheritance purposes.

Valerie Harper: Slowly dying of cancer. Reports last year of her treatment failing and no updates since then.

Clive James: Slowly dying of leukaemia and emphysema, has been very quiet recently.

Ronnie Wood: Had lung cancer last year but recovered. His cancer could well come back but a bad pick until then.

Olivia Newton-John: Terminally ill with breast cancer but appears to be doing very well.

Joni Mitchell: Suffered an aneurysm a few years ago and still looks frail.

Paul Gascoigne: Slowly drinking himself to death, I don't think he'll live to a great age but I don't think this is his year either.