Thoughts On The 2018 List

[Joey Russ 7,228]

I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, there’s no pattern that death follows for hits. The hits will come when they come, they’re not coming due to a “pattern that it follows”. 

[drol 11,957]

6 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, there’s no pattern that death follows for hits. The hits will come when they come, they’re not coming due to a “pattern that it follows”. 

True. Death has no rational schemes or it would surely take Le Duc Anh instead of my whole family.

[Deathtreat23 189]

And anything above 12 hits (in my opinion at least) is a bonus.

[CaptainChorizo 1,983]

17 hours ago, Joey Russ said:

I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, there’s no pattern that death follows for hits. The hits will come when they come, they’re not coming due to a “pattern that it follows”. 

 

To some degree

A 101 year old Widow of the Prime Minister with no known illness is still likelier to die statistically, then say a  90 something with no known illness who still are well enough to make public appearances.

[Joey Russ 7,228]

6 hours ago, CaptainChorizo said:

 

To some degree

A 101 year old Widow of the Prime Minister with no known illness is still likelier to die statistically, then say a  90 something with no known illness who still are well enough to make public appearances.

The likelihood of someone dying and an order that they go in are two very different things. I mean, no one would’ve guessed that Kate Spade and Anthony Bourdain would’ve died before Kirk Douglas or John McCain, example...

[Joey Russ 7,228]

So by the end of the first half of the year, there are 5 hits. I noticed that from the past decade, the only years with a lower hit count within this decade were 2011 and 2014 with 4 hits and 2010 with only 3 hits by the end. Those are also the weakest three years of the decade as well. However, I feel as if there's plenty of names still alive that could bring it up to over 10 deaths...

[Lafaucheuse 4,051]

7 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

So by the end of the first half of the year, there are 5 hits. I noticed that from the past decade, the only years with a lower hit count within this decade were 2011 and 2014 with 4 hits and 2010 with only 3 hits by the end. Those are also the weakest three years of the decade as well. However, I feel as if there's plenty of names still alive that could bring it up to over 10 deaths...

Yes there’s good picks that’s True ! But do you think that we’ll break last year’s record ? (It’s a sincere question, you’re obviously more experienced than I am..)

[Joey Russ 7,228]

4 minutes ago, Lafaucheuse said:

Yes there’s good picks that’s True ! But do you think that we’ll break last year’s record ? (It’s a sincere question, you’re obviously more experienced than I am..)

I have my doubts on the record going this year. Still, I probably wouldn't want to write Christmas cards to the likes of Bracknell, Wouk, McCain, Moss, and Neil Simon just yet...

[Bibliogryphon 9,588]

At this point in time we are only one hit behind last year's recordbreaking performance. At the moment I am thinking 10-12 total hits

[Deathtreat23 189]

Am going for 12, anything else is a bonus.

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,346]

2 hours ago, Bibliogryphon said:

At this point in time we are only one hit behind last year's recordbreaking performance. At the moment I am thinking 10-12 total hits

I feel it's too early to give up on the chances of us equalling or surpassing last year's record of 17. I'm expecting the unexpected and if its an appropriate term in this context I'm an optimist! 

[Joey Russ 7,228]

I feel that if they get one or two more deaths from people that are seen as just old like Reverend Graham or Lord Carrington were, then they should easily get 13 hits at least. McCain and Brackers will most likely be gone before the end of the year, and there are many others that seem like they could go sooner rather then later...

[Sean 6,333]

On 10/07/2018 at 20:09, Joey Russ said:

I feel that if they get one or two more deaths from people that are seen as just old like Reverend Graham or Lord Carrington were, then they should easily get 13 hits at least. McCain and Brackers will most likely be gone before the end of the year, and there are many others that seem like they could go sooner rather then later...

True.There are 4 older candidates still alive older than Graham and Carrington.Wouk has been on oxygen for at least a year now and Kirk Douglas has looked like death for years.Bush snr has had many health issues of late.McCain and Bracknell are clearly on their way outline Philip isn't about in public these days Stan Lee is clearly frail physically and mentally.Gascoine is by her husbands account in the final brutal stages of dementia.Philips has a long history of I'll health and is very old now.Harper has gone quiet now and James is defying the odds but has a multitude of health issues that make his chances of seeing the year out statistically low.Considering that and the age or frailty of the list I think the committee will do pretty well.Carrington was an outlier  of current hits in that he wasn't known to be ill he was simply very old.Even if a couple of the over hundred brigade die this year along with Bracknell and McCain and two of the other names I mentioned plus  a few other candidates die the committee will be near the top 5 highest scoring years.I don't think at this point the record will be hit or surpassed this year but there is a decent chance of 12_14 hits by the end of the year.

[CastAway 488]

Honestly, if we manage to get some of the bed warmers out this year (I'm looking at you Douglas and JPdC), I think we can count it as a success regardless of number of hits IMO.

[Book 3,557]

On 01/04/2018 at 09:48, Book said:

When will the line "previous year" be filled out? Thanks.

 

On 04/06/2018 at 17:46, Book said:

Will the previous year info on the front page ever be added?

 

Dear Admis, does anyone hear my plea?

[Joey Russ 7,228]

I think Grim Reaper is the only one who can fill those lines since he owns the site. He only seems to come on when there’s either a hit or when a site update happens...

[Book 3,557]

This is hit No. 6 by now so the addition could have taken place 6 times. Pity, the site looks unfinished.

However, many of the "previous year's" statements in older lists do not match.

[Bibliogryphon 9,588]

Today is day 208. We are now running well behind all the 'big' years. 

 

The 7th death in 2016 occured on 17th August and there were 12 hits that year. The 7th death in 2014 was on 12th September and there were 10 hits that year. Seven was the total number of hits in 2011.

[TQR 14,402]

• Bracknell
• McCain
• One more; maybe James, GHW, Wouk or JP de C.

This'll be a single figure year, I reckon.

[msc 18,479]

12/50 by 1st January, by hook or crook.

 

 

Double figures anyhow, via at least 4 of this lot.

1.       Brackers

2.       Wouk

3.       Kirk

4.       McCain

5.       Moss

6.       Stan Lee

7.       Bush Sr

8.       1 of the old regulars (Norden/Philips) on stats alone

[Joey Russ 7,228]

Still feel like there’s a lot of potential despite low hit numbers so far as a lot of the list seem to be ill even with a lot poorer picks. Don’t the second half of the year usually have more hits anyways? 

EDIT: Might give a more in depth analysis later today...

[Bibliogryphon 9,588]

In good years there is a cluster of deaths in the Autumn. Not sure that is coming I am going for a grand total of 11 +/- 1

 

Herman Wouk

Leah Bracknell

John McCain

Leslie Phillips

Vera Lynn

[Joey Russ 7,228]

On 03/01/2018 at 06:37, Bibliogryphon said:

No Bernard Hepton, No Peter Sutcliffe. No Douglas Hurd.

 

That one did turn out to be a mistake.

[Bibliogryphon 9,588]

4 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

That one did turn out to be a mistake.

Nòoooooooooooooooooo

[drol 11,957]

I voted Hepton for the Crowdsourced DL, but democracy sucks and he is not on it.