Derby Dead Pool 2020

[Grim Up North 3,725]

2 hours ago, gcreptile said:

As I update for Ruth Morrissey, we now have 6 teams within 4 points. Has it ever been so close, so relatively late in the year? Well, we have 5 months left, and lots of potential hits that can change the scoreboard.

 

I Will Not Die, It's The World that will End - looks very handily placed 4 points back with their Tom Smith joker still unutilised.

[gcreptile 10,963]

6 minutes ago, Grim Up North said:

 

I Will Not Die, It's The World that will End - looks very handily placed 4 points back with their Tom Smith joker still unutilised.

After the 2020 game reveal, when Tom Smith made the Drop 40, I thought that he was the one joker to have. But now it's looking suprisingly risky.

[Joey Russ 7,220]

I think in general people overestimate the first year cancer picks (myself included). Some did end up dying this year like John Lewis and Roger Scruton, but many that seemed like locks last year really weren’t that good of picks. See Yoo Sang-chul or Tom Smith as prime examples. 

[maryportfuncity 10,630]

1 hour ago, gcreptile said:

After the 2020 game reveal, when Tom Smith made the Drop 40, I thought that he was the one joker to have. But now it's looking suprisingly risky.

 

 

F'kin' hope not - and it's only 20 July

 

As Smith himself might point out, it's who is ahead when the final whistle goes that counts

[Banana 859]

5 hours ago, Joey Russ said:

I think in general people overestimate the first year cancer picks (myself included). Some did end up dying this year like John Lewis and Roger Scruton, but many that seemed like locks last year really weren’t that good of picks. See Yoo Sang-chul or Tom Smith as prime examples. 

I think in Smith’s case there just wasn’t much news on his health other than the initial diagnosis by the year’s end. I still think Yoo is going to go this year as there’s still 5 months left and the more recent news on him isn’t promising. His issue was his obitability. Doleman & Andretti, imo, we’re always the safer bets for joker. 
 

 

On a separate note, who even is The House of Extravaganza?

[Death Impends 7,953]

2 hours ago, Banana said:

On a separate note, who even is The House of Extravaganza?

 

Reptile's C Team.

[Banana 859]

20 minutes ago, Death Impends said:

 

Reptile's C Team.

All the more reason to abolish B & C teams. 

[Joey Russ 7,220]

Oh boo hoo. I didn't get a unique on a very borderline pick because somebody sent in multiple teams, and because of that multiple teams should be gone. It doesn't really matter if a pick is a unique or not. So grow up and don't be so entitled, okay? 

[Toast 16,126]

3 hours ago, Banana said:

On a separate note, who even is The House of Extravaganza?

 

And there's another redundant and meaningless word that is creeping into modern usage.

[Banana 859]

7 minutes ago, Toast said:

 

And there's another redundant and meaningless word that is creeping into modern usage.

Apologies. 

 

21 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

Oh boo hoo. I didn't get a unique on a very borderline pick because somebody sent in multiple teams, and because of that multiple teams should be gone. It doesn't really matter if a pick is a unique or not. So grow up and don't be so entitled, okay? 

I think you took this differently than how I intended. I don’t really care, but it does matter when the race is so close. Also, I don’t see the point in arguing so deeply for more teams. They don’t really add anything other than make more work for the game runners. I don’t know if someone is expecting to win on their #41-60 picks so it’s seems pretty pointless.

[msc 18,421]

Front page, theme team league standings, LOTL, LOTM and Player of the Month for June all updated.

[msc 18,421]

On 29/04/2020 at 13:29, msc said:

For the stats chasers among us, here's the Drop 40 record since 2004 (when there was enough teams for a Drop 40 to be relevant):

 

2004 (6/40) - Reagan, Alice, Wray, Arafat, Benkner, Lauder,
2005 -  (13/40)  Pope JP2, Mills, Heath, Best, Schmeling, Callaghan, Pryor, Eddie Albert, Doohan, Gretchen Franklin, Rehnquist, Wisenthal, Fahd)
2006  (7/40)-  Ford, Pinochet, Hussein, Barbera, Rawls, Al Lewis, Davidson
2007 -(10/40)  Astor, Lady Bird Johnson, Messner, Tomlinson, Al-Tikriti, Pavarotti, Al-Bandar, Mercado del Toro, Yeltsin, Manning)
2008 (5/40) - Heston, Pinter, Clarke, Christodoulos, Hofmann)
2009  (12/40)- Swayze, Robson, Richard, Ted Kennedy, Allingham, Goody, Fawcett, Tony Hart, Patch, Malden, Atkins, Jackson
2010 (6/40)  - Wisdom, Foot, Rubinstein, MacCorkindale, Hopper, Dio
2011 (6/40) - Jong-il, Taylor, Hitchens, Ballesteros, Ford, Falk
2012 (12/40)- Al-Megrahi, Gibb, Etta James, Patrick Moore, Geoffrey Hughes, Andy Williams, Niemeyer, Borgnine, Clive Dunn, Shamir, Sykes, Stynes
2013 (11/40) - Mandela, Thatcher, Chavez, Biggs, Winner, Nolan, Cecil, Wing, Franklin, Kimura, Cliburn
2014 -(11/40) -  Jaruzelski, Sharon, Wallach, Paisley, Rooney, Crowe, Attenborough, Farmiloe, Kasem, Dora Bryan, Jardine
2015 (4/40) - Sam Simon, Denis Healey, Christopher Lee, Leonard Nimoy
2016 (13/40) - Gabor, Crowe, Ali, Castro, Feek, Reagan, Granger, Angelil, Bhumibol, Marks, Ford, Aherne, Havelange
2017 - 15/40 - Forsyth, van der Westhuizen, Glen Campell, Downie, Christie, Sallis, Brady, Booth, Jerry Lewis, Snuka, King Michael, Skellern, Meads, MT Moore, Wetton
2018 - 14/40 - Bush Sr, McCain, Rev Graham, Stefansson, Cryne, Jowell, Elias, Lima, Miller, Nevin, Ricketts, Hawking, Stan Lee, Norden
2019 - 12/40 - Bracknell, Clive James, Mugabe, Ricksen, Doris Day, Harper, Blanco, McCririck, Vervoort, Conway, Clegg, Fairlie
2020 - currently 8/40 - Kirk Douglas, Terry Jones, Andretti, P-orridge, Doleman, Moss, Scruton, Gascoine)

 

Bold is the current record holder - fair bit to go to challenge that one!

 

 

2020 now at 10/40 with Lynn and Lewis's deaths.

 

On 21/05/2020 at 22:14, msc said:

Vinegar Tits, Ethnic Cleansing and Wormer etc have all achieved their 100th DDP hits btw. Belated congratulations.

 

Deathlist.net is on 99 so their next DDP hit is 100.

 

And Maryport is on 98.

 

Going Underground on 97.

 

Put here so I remember. In theory. Also pointing it out as still quite a rare feat.

 

 

Vera Lynn was Deathlist's 100 DDP hit!

 

Judy Dyble has put Maryport on 99.

 

Going Underground had John Lewis so 98.

 

Getting close there.

[maryportfuncity 10,630]

16 hours ago, msc said:

 

2020 now at 10/40 with Lynn and Lewis's deaths.

 

 

Vera Lynn was Deathlist's 100 DDP hit!

 

Judy Dyble has put Maryport on 99.

 

Going Underground had John Lewis so 98.

 

Getting close there.

 

 

 

OOOh, yeah

 

Smith, Gulpilil, Smith and Stiles still breathing on my team as we speak - should snag the ton by the end of the year. 

[YoungWillz 21,019]

Jawara Mcintosh apparently dead and therefore on the List of the Missed: http://www.derbydeadpool.co.uk/deadpool2018/celebs_M.html#mcintoj018 

[msc 18,421]

With a remarkable choice of joker, Lardy appears to have gone from 121st place to 32nd in the DDP with one death. Those records aren't kept but that must be the largest leap up the table from one hit this late in a year ever.

[Lard Bazaar 3,799]

55 minutes ago, msc said:

With a remarkable choice of joker, Lardy appears to have gone from 121st place to 32nd in the DDP with one death. Those records aren't kept but that must be the largest leap up the table from one hit this late in a year ever.

It’s not who you know, it’s what you know  I reckon with a couple of strategically-placed skateboards I could beat my personal best of 24th this year! 

[maryportfuncity 10,630]

Yeah BIG respect to Lardy - amazed she snagged him as a unique pick but then I got Larry Wallis as a unique last year despite his poor  health being public knowledge.

[Joey Russ 7,220]

On 18/07/2020 at 07:18, Joey Russ said:

I believe I’m leading again after the sad demise of John Lewis. However, I am by no means safe enough for the title, so I’ll just enjoy the view on top while it lasts...

Only lasted for about a week. The competition is certainly far from over...

[Miracle Aligner 249]

On 22/07/2020 at 19:03, Lard Bazaar said:

It’s not who you know, it’s what you know  I reckon with a couple of strategically-placed skateboards I could beat my personal best of 24th this year! 

 

Don't lie. You mis-spelt Tom Smith and just agreed when you heard about this cardiacs singer right!!! 

[Lard Bazaar 3,799]

1 hour ago, Miracle Aligner said:

 

Don't lie. You mis-spelt Tom Smith and just agreed when you heard about this cardiacs singer right!!! 

Over the years I’ve had a couple of unique scorers, as I said, it’s what you know, not who 

[gcreptile 10,963]

Okay, so the 100pt barrier was broken wih David Hagen's death. I think we were faster before? 

 

On the other hand, we rarely had so many still contending teams at the top.

My 7/8-point lead, for example, would still be overcome by Susan Bayh or Jana Bennett, the picks I am most afraid of dying (Joey would be ahead by 1, Rad would have the tiebreaker - me vs. DI...that would depend on the age tiebreaker).

 

I still need another 10-pointer to get some comfortable distance - which is why Ady Barkan is now the most important person on my team. Although a Lee Kerslake / Tim Bilton combo would also be good for that - it's less likely though, and Tim Bilton looks like a dicey November/December death now.

[Joey Russ 7,220]

I think at this point I’m probably more worried about Lee Kerslake rather than Ady Barkan. Barkan is still a very active tweeter and I feel as long as he tweets on a daily basis he’ll be okay for the time being. Kerslake I do think he could survive the year, but a late end of the year death wouldn’t shock me at all. Prostate cancer picks are pretty hard to tell. 
For me, my most likely route to victory probably relies on 2 out 3 of Jana Bennett, Gavin Robertson, and Sylvain Sylvain. And then I probably also need someone like Bilton or Tom Smith to keep my distance ahead of Death Impends too if Robertson does become a hit. While I think it’s plausible, it is by no means a guarantee at all (Robertson has glio but also seems slightly stable at the moment, and Sylvain was admittedly a punt pick. I wouldn’t be surprised if either of them went, but certainly could also see 2021). 
Speaking of Death Impends, Tom Smith surviving will definitely help his chances. But he also needs folk like Jimmy Carter, Gavin Robertson, Belinda Sykes, and Rachel Zoll. Again, it’s plausible some of these will go but again, it’s no guarantee. There’s also Lars Hogh, who seems to be okay for now, but could have another downturn (he already have one before). 
Rad’s team has an interesting path, for one he needs Tom Smith to survive in order to help his chances, but he also needs 3 of 4 of Hogh, Doug Supernaw, Bernard Tapie, and Tobin. Okay, not the greatest batch of survivors, Tapie and Tobin seems to be frauding, and like Hogh, Supernaw’s cancer treatment seems to be working. Again though, a Supernaw late year death wouldn’t shock. And the criminals do die eventually, but when is it they die I have no idea when they’ll actually die. 
Which leads to Banana, who has some interesting differentials from everyone else. Lee Noble... seems to be fine for now. He’s another one where a late year downturn wouldn’t shock, but I also think he’s a slight obit risk now. However, Banana arguably has the strongest differential that almost nobody would’ve guessed to die this... George Alagiah. Alagiah has turned from a stablish name to a bit of a ticking time bomb now. The question remains whether he’s 2020 or 2021, but I wouldn’t be shocked either way. He also have Andrew McDonald and Bibian Mentel. Interesting picks, but also slightly iffy (the former has prostate cancer which as mentioned before is pretty hard to gauge, and the latter has cancer so many times. It’ll kill her eventually, but when it will eventually kill her I have no idea). 
I Will Not Die, unlike Death Impends and Rad Guy, needs Tom Smith to die to really help his chances of winning. Outside of Smith his remaining differentials are kind of iffy. I mean, he picked Superstar Graham, a very noted fraudster. See above for Doug Supernaw. And Brian Travers recovered from his brain cancer last time I checked, although he’s another one a late year downturn wouldn’t shock. Sally Sheridan has been pretty quiet though 

Heading nowhere has some differentials that no one else have near the top, ie Leon Spinks, Lisa Griffiths, and Litsa Menounous. Griffiths could die, and also potentially die off radar, but who knows. On paper Menounous should die, but here she is hanging on so far. And then there’s Leon Spinks. A much better pick on paper than I thought in December of last year. It’s still prostate cancer though which makes him a bit of an iffy pick, but if I had to say which of the prostate cancer picks is most likely to die, I’d probably say Spinks. 
Then there’s some guy we never heard of called Pan Breed. He got JLT, another one who could go but also could not go. Schjeldahl is currently in remission (you might’ve seen me take him out of DBN), though he’s another that a late year death wouldn’t shock. Really am surprised Bernadette Chirac is still here. Ditto Vic Seixas. Both are supposed to be pretty frail. And Hamish Barbour I don’t know what’s exactly wrong with him, but he could go this year. 
Which leads me to Spade Cooley himself. He said before that he’d be happy with a top ten spot this time around, but you know he actually meant that he’s going to dominate. He probably needs most of his differential/slight differential hits to land, ie Mark Allen, Jana Bennett, Bob Gibson, Litsa Menounous, Laura Nuttall, and Belinda Sykes. If there’s someone who could land all these hits, however, it is Spade Cooley. He seemingly called it right with Gianluca Vialli too. I honestly wouldn’t underestimate his team this late in the year and I’m not just because of his past DDP record. 

What I am saying with this pretty lengthy analysis of the current top 9 teams is anyone can really win at this point. Any one of these differentials dying doesn’t really affect a person’s overall chances, and I imagine the person who does end up eventually winning will only do so by about a few points. Though it’s not necessarily going to be record breaking, I still it’s going to be an amazing competition in its own right... 

[msc 18,421]

1 hour ago, Joey Russ said:

I think at this point I’m probably more worried about Lee Kerslake rather than Ady Barkan. Barkan is still a very active tweeter and I feel as long as he tweets on a daily basis he’ll be okay for the time being. Kerslake I do think he could survive the year, but a late end of the year death wouldn’t shock me at all. Prostate cancer picks are pretty hard to tell. 
For me, my most likely route to victory probably relies on 2 out 3 of Jana Bennett, Gavin Robertson, and Sylvain Sylvain. And then I probably also need someone like Bilton or Tom Smith to keep my distance ahead of Death Impends too if Robertson does become a hit. While I think it’s plausible, it is by no means a guarantee at all (Robertson has glio but also seems slightly stable at the moment, and Sylvain was admittedly a punt pick. I wouldn’t be surprised if either of them went, but certainly could also see 2021). 
Speaking of Death Impends, Tom Smith surviving will definitely help his chances. But he also needs folk like Jimmy Carter, Gavin Robertson, Belinda Sykes, and Rachel Zoll. Again, it’s plausible some of these will go but again, it’s no guarantee. There’s also Lars Hogh, who seems to be okay for now, but could have another downturn (he already have one before). 
Rad’s team has an interesting path, for one he needs Tom Smith to survive in order to help his chances, but he also needs 3 of 4 of Hogh, Doug Supernaw, Bernard Tapie, and Tobin. Okay, not the greatest batch of survivors, Tapie and Tobin seems to be frauding, and like Hogh, Supernaw’s cancer treatment seems to be working. Again though, a Supernaw late year death wouldn’t shock. And the criminals do die eventually, but when is it they die I have no idea when they’ll actually die. 
Which leads to Banana, who has some interesting differentials from everyone else. Lee Noble... seems to be fine for now. He’s another one where a late year downturn wouldn’t shock, but I also think he’s a slight obit risk now. However, Banana arguably has the strongest differential that almost nobody would’ve guessed to die this... George Alagiah. Alagiah has turned from a stablish name to a bit of a ticking time bomb now. The question remains whether he’s 2020 or 2021, but I wouldn’t be shocked either way. He also have Andrew McDonald and Bibian Mentel. Interesting picks, but also slightly iffy (the former has prostate cancer which as mentioned before is pretty hard to gauge, and the latter has cancer so many times. It’ll kill her eventually, but when it will eventually kill her I have no idea). 

Then there’s some guy we never heard of called Pan Breed. He got JLT, another one who could go but also could not go. Schjeldahl is currently in remission (you might’ve seen me take him out of DBN), though he’s another that a late year death wouldn’t shock. Really am surprised Bernadette Chirac is still here. Ditto Vic Seixas. Both are supposed to be pretty frail. And Hamish Barbour I don’t know what’s exactly wrong with him, but he could go this year. 

 

Hamish Barbour directed several of those chin stroking BBC4 documentaries that boring people like me love. He's also had Stage IV prostate cancer for years, but towards the end of 2019, his wife suddenly stepped down from her public roles to look after her husband who had "deteriorated quickly". Said wife is broadcaster Muriel Gray and if she steps down from the GAlasgow Art School, as she has, you have to twig things are looking grim.

 

As for your analysis, it wouldn't shock me if any of the top 10 won at this point in time. Did you see what I did there?

 

Although, while DI and I guess Spade are lingering ominously (although tbh I think Spade has missed too many gift horses this year) in the pack, I think Banana has a good shout this late on, if some of his solid picks stop breathing. He has a number of picks none of the other contenders have - Alagiah as you point out , but former lead civil servant Andrew McDonald is another who could easily go in the second half of 2020 too.

 

Long road to go yet.

[Spade_Cooley 9,513]

Mark Allen is a bust pick. However, Belinda Sykes' Twitter account has gone ominously quiet which makes me think I've got points coming thataway in the near future, and I saw a picture from Maria Menounous' Instagram account that seemed to suggest Litsa has got one of those "I've gone home to die" cancer beds.

[Banana 859]

6 hours ago, Joey Russ said:

Which leads to Banana, who has some interesting differentials from everyone else. Lee Noble... seems to be fine for now. He’s another one where a late year downturn wouldn’t shock, but I also think he’s a slight obit risk now. However, Banana arguably has the strongest differential that almost nobody would’ve guessed to die this... George Alagiah. Alagiah has turned from a stablish name to a bit of a ticking time bomb now. The question remains whether he’s 2020 or 2021, but I wouldn’t be shocked either way. He also have Andrew McDonald and Bibian Mentel. Interesting picks, but also slightly iffy (the former has prostate cancer which as mentioned before is pretty hard to gauge, and the latter has cancer so many times. It’ll kill her eventually, but when it will eventually kill her I have no idea). 

...
And then there’s Leon Spinks. A much better pick on paper than I thought in December of last year. It’s still prostate cancer though which makes him a bit of an iffy pick, but if I had to say which of the prostate cancer picks is most likely to die, I’d probably say Spinks. 

Noble looked terrible at year’s end and I never pegged him to last this long. I think he still has decent obit chances but his death chances have lowered. Alagiah seems to keep getting worse, but could easily make it out of the year. McDonald also has Parkinson’s and stepped down from his position about mid-yearish last year, but’s that’s all I know. Mentel supposedly wasn’t supposed to make it out the year, but she seems to be fighting off this cancer (again). 
 

I’m very high on Spinks right now. Don’t think he’ll make it to December even.