Thoughts and Opinions on the 2021 Deathlist

[msc 18,399]

12 hours ago, Bibliogryphon said:

Forty six days since the last hit.

 

However in last year's record breaking run there was a gap of 52 days between 25th July and 15th September. However if we don't get another hit in the next three weeks we will fall behind 2015.

 

Worry not, Biblio, Euro 2020 starts in a weeks time and if I've learnt anything from over a decade on this place, its that someone major always dies in the middle of one of the games at the Euros or World Cup. It's the Casey Kasem tradition.

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,329]

13 hours ago, Bibliogryphon said:

Forty six days since the last hit.

 

However in last year's record breaking run there was a gap of 52 days between 25th July and 15th September. However if we don't get another hit in the next three weeks we will fall behind 2015.

Keep the faith!

[Lafaucheuse 4,015]

ahahah thought it was a good time to resurrect this thread : who remembers 2020 ?! a great time… 

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,329]

2 hours ago, Lafaucheuse said:

ahahah thought it was a good time to resurrect this thread : who remembers 2020 ?! a great time… 

I believe you will most likely  feel  the same about 2021 at the end of the year when the year has fully run its course.

[msc 18,399]

4 minutes ago, Gooseberry Crumble said:

I believe you will most likely  feel  the same about 2021 at the end of the year when the year has fully run its course.

 

It feels like a traditional 12/50 year to me, tbh!

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,329]

45 minutes ago, msc said:

 

It feels like a traditional 12/50 year to me, tbh!

Awe you old cynic!!

[odeon 95]

On 28/06/2021 at 23:14, msc said:

 

It feels like a traditional 12/50 year to me, tbh!

cosign

[Bibliogryphon 9,520]

Today is day 195. 

 

Even if we got hit eight today we would still be behind 2013 (13) and 2015 (14).

 

However the Eighth hit in 2017 (17) did not come until 8 August.

 

I am thinking 12/13 hits in total.

[odeon 95]

Does any OG know if we are already somewhere in the top 10 of longest drought between hits?

[Bibliogryphon 9,520]

48 minutes ago, odeon said:

Does any OG know if we are already somewhere in the top 10 of longest drought between hits?

 

Just looking at the data on my graph the longest gap I can find is 151 days in 2011 which followed Another long gap of 105 days.

 

In 2003 the last hit was over 100 days before the end of the year but I do not have data for 2004 on my spreadsheet so I don't know when the first hit was in that year.

 

2013 has a gap of 96 days

 

We are currently at 86.

[msc 18,399]

1 hour ago, Bibliogryphon said:

 

Just looking at the data on my graph the longest gap I can find is 151 days in 2011 which followed Another long gap of 105 days.

 

In 2003 the last hit was over 100 days before the end of the year but I do not have data for 2004 on my spreadsheet so I don't know when the first hit was in that year.

 

2013 has a gap of 96 days

 

We are currently at 86.

 

Pan Breed is currently on its longest gap since 2015!

[Bibliogryphon 9,520]

Queen Julianna did not die until 20th March 2004 which makes a gap of nearly 200 days between hits

[arghton 6,644]

Lots of people I'm suprised haven't died yet on this year's list, lots of ones that I think will likely die during the next 3 years (Betty White, Imelda Marcos, J-M Le Pen, Shane MacGowan) but don't seem like they're on death's door right now. About Liz, I'd keep her on the list in case of a sudden death (stroke or other) because while she very likely won't die this year, it'd be a hell of a miss.

 

 

Worst picks? In my opinion, these three:

 

Ali Khamenei. He's only 82, even though he has had health issues in the past I don't think he'll die soon. Twelver Shia Grand Ayatollahs (Marja') are also known for living forever, just look at Khorasani and Golpaygani.

Frank Williams. Has had health problems and is paralyzed, but feels like he'll be one of those ones who'll be on the list until the end of time.

Emperor Akihito. Abdicated but still going, walking and looking much better. Visits a laboratory every week to do research on goby fish and recently discovered a couple of new species.

[DeathClock 379]

I laugh at how some people on this forum believe they can accurately predict how many hits the list will have or when the next death will occur through some mathematical equation or patterns from past years. Death doesn’t happen that way!

[odeon 95]

On 15/07/2021 at 12:55, Bibliogryphon said:

 

Just looking at the data on my graph the longest gap I can find is 151 days in 2011 which followed Another long gap of 105 days.

 

In 2003 the last hit was over 100 days before the end of the year but I do not have data for 2004 on my spreadsheet so I don't know when the first hit was in that year.

 

2013 has a gap of 96 days

 

We are currently at 86.

Looks like we now passed 2013!

[msc 18,399]

Naturally it occurs to me that neither Sean or someone like that has done up the annual "list of contenders" for the second half of the year. And we all know the Reaper is more keen on list names in the second half of the year. Except 2011, but frankly, fuck 2011. So anyhow, with the aide of whisky, here are the runners and riders after we get rid of the bloody health picks who are now going to drop dead before Hogmanay out of spite, no doubt.

 

1. Bob Dole - frail for a decade plus and now has Stage IV fucking cancer at 98 years old. How is he still alive?

2. Angela Lansbury - was my tip for centenarian status until Ulitzer recently pointed out she's given up on autographs and fan mail after being big on them for decades. Usually the first sign something is amiss imo.

3. June Brown - She was falling apart before she "retired" from Eastenders. 

4. Jimmy Carter - is clearly a frail old man in the last months of his life - but how many months?

5. Leslie Philips - "is frail, ill and wont have long left" we got told in 2011 when his wife topped herself. Surely one for Drol's immortals list (if not already there...). Meant to be a bad sneeze away from death and yet still alive somehow.

6. Jacques Delors - "in bad health" according to our European posters

7. David Crosby - he's recording music and chatty but that heart is meant to be a ticking timebomb nearing expiry date.

8. Prunella Scales - pretty much off screen now due to advanced dementia but was physically OK in 2020. Basically could go tomorrow or in 2025...

9. Bob Newhart - looking skeletal of late, doesn't seem long for the world tbh.

10. Jimmy Greaves - "gravely ill" last year, lost his mate Saint, spent time in hospital and the updates have slowed down. I think he's a goner (but no a Gooner of course) tbh...

11. Barbara Walters - has been in very poor ,dire health for bloody years according to Americans.

12. Pope Benny - Looked like shit for years and now he's praying for the current guy! Needs to go so we can get Francis (who I don't see being alive in 5 years time) on the list instead. An outsider chance here though.

13. Yoko Ono - Very frail now. Her death wouldn't surprise me.

14. Bob Barker - in and out of hospital in recent years, now ancient, somehow still here.

15. Linda Nolan - terminal cancer and now cancelling appearances on health grounds. Despite continual announcements of big plans, circling the drain.

16. Joanne Woodward - end-stage dementia and housebound before that became the norm, for years. No idea how she is still alive.

17. Burt Bacharach - all the concert reviews pre pandemic said same thing - very frail, seemed on last legs, revved up to perform. 

18. Shannen Doherty - Her court case documents in January 2020 said she had terminal cancer since the previous year.  And according to court docs from her recent lawsuit, she now has COPD as well. She is fucked and clearly someone I should have kept better tabs on for my DDP team too.

 

Out of the 43 survivors, this list of doddery 18 seem like the best tips to add to the paltry score. I think at least 5 of these will be gone by New Year...

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,329]

1 hour ago, msc said:

Naturally it occurs to me that neither Sean or someone like that has done up the annual "list of contenders" for the second half of the year. And we all know the Reaper is more keen on list names in the second half of the year. Except 2011, but frankly, fuck 2011. So anyhow, with the aide of whisky, here are the runners and riders after we get rid of the bloody health picks who are now going to drop dead before Hogmanay out of spite, no doubt.

 

1. Bob Dole - frail for a decade plus and now has Stage IV fucking cancer at 98 years old. How is he still alive?

2. Angela Lansbury - was my tip for centenarian status until Ulitzer recently pointed out she's given up on autographs and fan mail after being big on them for decades. Usually the first sign something is amiss imo.

3. June Brown - She was falling apart before she "retired" from Eastenders. 

4. Jimmy Carter - is clearly a frail old man in the last months of his life - but how many months?

5. Leslie Philips - "is frail, ill and wont have long left" we got told in 2011 when his wife topped herself. Surely one for Drol's immortals list (if not already there...). Meant to be a bad sneeze away from death and yet still alive somehow.

6. Jacques Delors - "in bad health" according to our European posters

7. David Crosby - he's recording music and chatty but that heart is meant to be a ticking timebomb nearing expiry date.

8. Prunella Scales - pretty much off screen now due to advanced dementia but was physically OK in 2020. Basically could go tomorrow or in 2025...

9. Bob Newhart - looking skeletal of late, doesn't seem long for the world tbh.

10. Jimmy Greaves - "gravely ill" last year, lost his mate Saint, spent time in hospital and the updates have slowed down. I think he's a goner (but no a Gooner of course) tbh...

11. Barbara Walters - has been in very poor ,dire health for bloody years according to Americans.

12. Pope Benny - Looked like shit for years and now he's praying for the current guy! Needs to go so we can get Francis (who I don't see being alive in 5 years time) on the list instead. An outsider chance here though.

13. Yoko Ono - Very frail now. Her death wouldn't surprise me.

14. Bob Barker - in and out of hospital in recent years, now ancient, somehow still here.

15. Linda Nolan - terminal cancer and now cancelling appearances on health grounds. Despite continual announcements of big plans, circling the drain.

16. Joanne Woodward - end-stage dementia and housebound before that became the norm, for years. No idea how she is still alive.

17. Burt Bacharach - all the concert reviews pre pandemic said same thing - very frail, seemed on last legs, revved up to perform. 

18. Shannen Doherty - Her court case documents in January 2020 said she had terminal cancer since the previous year.  And according to court docs from her recent lawsuit, she now has COPD as well. She is fucked and clearly someone I should have kept better tabs on for my DDP team too.

 

Out of the 43 survivors, this list of doddery 18 seem like the best tips to add to the paltry score. I think at least 5 of these will be gone by New Year...

A good thoughtful post but far too cautious and conservative in the numbers predicted!

 

Diarrhea  is coming in 2021. Lots of it in huge quantities!

Keep the faith!

[odeon 95]

at this point im hoping noone else dies so we at least get the record for longest drought

[Charles De Gaulle 484]

Yeah. As I predicted this year is likely not going to be having that many hits. But tbf its not like the names we peg as obvious goners are dying as well. 2021 is proving to be a shitty year for celebrity deaths (or a very good year for old celebrites) .

[arghton 6,644]

Thread Misses of 2021 this far, don't know if there's more:

Kurt Westergaard (1935-2021) wouldn't count this as a big miss, as he had no known health problems.

Andy Fordham (1962-2021) Darts thread named after him

Kenneth Kaunda (1924-2021) Miss, frail African despot.

Dilip Kumar (1922-2021) Obviously a big miss, fan favourite who had health problems for years and years. Probably the second-biggest bollywood name alive after Bachchan.

Donald Rumsfeld (1932-2021) again, nothing in the thread for 16 years and then bam, the news about his death.

Mike Gravel (1930-2021) another more "unexpected" death

Norman Lloyd (1914-2021) Would have been a near-guaranteed hit. A frail-looking ancient hollywood actor (who also lost his daughter last year, however we didn't know of this until his own death)

Bernie Madoff (1939-2021) Said last year that he had chronic kidney failure and not long to live, but he had claimed to have deadly diseases before

André Maranne (1926-2021) Suggested for this year's DL, description of the thread was "DeathList 2021" and dies in 2021.

Beverly Cleary (1916-2021) Goes to the same category as Lloyd: Centenarians are easy hits.

Peter Lorimer (1946-2021) Brain cancer, long-term illnesses.

Yaphet Kotto (1939-2021) Not a big hit as no diseases were known, but reported to be unwell once.

Ian St John (1938-2021) Of course he dies instead of the reportedly more sick Jimmy Greaves

Eddie Kulukundis (1932-2021) Demented (since around 2009!) overweight Greek shipping family member/wife of Susan Hampshire. Already reported dead at the end of 2021.

Hal Holbrook (1925-2021) No diseases known?

Dustin Diamond (1977-2021) Not a miss. Cancer announced in January, dead on the first of February.

Phil Spector (1939-2021) Ill for ages

Larry King (1933-2021) and Carlos Menem (1930-2021) Everyone was quite sure they won't last another year at the start of this year, they didn't last for two months.

 

The spots wasted on the active octogenerians who had health issues in the past Khamenei and Akihito could have been used on one of these or perhaps Zemin, maybe king Salman, even Jean-Louis Trintignant?

[msc 18,399]

Apart from Larry King who was on the road out clearly even before covid, there was nothing on Jan 1st to suggest the others were at more danger this year than any other. Maybe Saint, but as seen by the low number of teams who had him in the DDP, his quietness on his health had been taken as good news by most.

[Death Impends 7,944]

Yeah could really only have seen King plausibly being picked by the committee. The forum loved Cleary/Lloyd/Kumar but if the committee felt similar they would've debuted years ago. And Menem needed the committee to be in a "shoot for a high score" year mood, which they weren't.

[Bibliogryphon 9,520]

[Bibliogryphon 9,520]

The start of the year looked a lot like 2020 and this  little double hit has occurred in the same place as last year when the went on to have another six hits. The worst performance on this graph is two hits from this point so 11-15 is the hit range based on existing data

 

Last year the next hit was day 304 which this year falls on Halloween

[Bibliogryphon 9,520]

So if you had to narrow it down to six who could realistically go before the end of the year my picks would be

 

1. Bob Dole 

2. Leslie Phillips

3. Joanne Woodward

4. Bob Barker

5. Tony Bennett

6. Jean Marie Le Pen