General Election 2024?

[The Old Crem 3,611]

1 hour ago, Redrumours said:

Anybody up for a sweepstake for the exact time Sunak raises the White Flag on Election night.

It be whatever time Richmond and Northallerton declares. He won’t speak publicly before that - just as Starmer won’t speak publicly until Holborn and St Pancras declares. The main two party leaders never give interviews on election night. 
 

So it will be up to people like Dowden and Cleverly to give the main Tory interviews. 

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

1 minute ago, The Old Crem said:

It be whatever time Richmond and Northallerton declares. He won’t speak publicly before that - just as Starmer won’t speak publicly until Holborn and St Pancras declares. The main two party leaders never give an interview on election night. 

Yep. Major didn't speak until his declaration at Huntingdon even though Labour had already passed the Maj threshold in terms of actual seats won

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

 

[The Old Crem 3,611]

29 minutes ago, DCI Frank Burnside said:

 

Labour had a fantastic result there in the local and PCC elections - helped by the backlash to the Tory run council going bankrupt but Labour are right to feel they can win it.

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

Great read from Tim Shipman in the Sunday Times: https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/infighting-on-the-beaches-behind-the-scenes-of-the-d-day-debacle-6rlvt8nr6 (no paywall this weekend).

 

Sounds like Rishi's ITV interview didn't go well anyway, Starmer played a blinder, the Palace are fuming and the mood music is dire. Leadership contenders considering the future. Badenoch will not allow Farage into the Conservative Party. Priti Patel would, backed by Jacob Rees-Mogg, who thinks he should be in the shadow cabinet.

[TQR 14,414]

Good ole Esther McVey, Minister for pots and pans or whatever

 

https://www.threads.net/@politicsintheuk/post/C7_8zEniRLH

[msc 18,490]

38 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

Labour had a fantastic result there in the local and PCC elections - helped by the backlash to the Tory run council going bankrupt but Labour are right to feel they can win it.

 

They've also got Jackie Doyle-Price as Tory  MP, who doubled down on a dog whistle campaign against UKIP candidate Tim Aker in 2015, and has taken advantage of split opposition to sneak through ever since. 

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

13 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said:

Great read from Tim Shipman in the Sunday Times: https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/infighting-on-the-beaches-behind-the-scenes-of-the-d-day-debacle-6rlvt8nr6 (no paywall this weekend).

 

Sounds like Rishi's ITV interview didn't go well anyway, Starmer played a blinder, the Palace are fuming and the mood music is dire. Leadership contenders considering the future. Badenoch will not allow Farage into the Conservative Party. Priti Patel would, backed by Jacob Rees-Mogg, who thinks he should be in the shadow cabinet.

 

Significant I think that it's been made known during the election campaign rather than it merely coming out afterwards

[Sly Ronnie 893]

2 hours ago, Redrumours said:

Anybody up for a sweepstake for the exact time Sunak raises the White Flag on Election night.

 

4:06hrs when he gets his declaration.

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

 

 

 

 

 

[The Old Crem 3,611]

This election will be sandwiched in between the two rounds of the French  legislative election. 

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

 

 

 

Some tremendous other ones in here as well

 

 

https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/milkshakes-vanilla-compared-with-protests-past-hzx3hd8sd

 

 

 

Among other lowlights, it’s hard to look past the affray in genteel Cheltenham in 1865, when a Liberal activist called William Lynes was embroiled in a street altercation with a Conservative chemist, John Thomas Glass. The climax, rather quaintly, came when Lynes insisted on singing a Liberal song: Hurrah for the Bonnets of Yellow.

At that, Glass pulled out a revolver and shot him in the face. “Good God, I’m shot; I shall die!” Lynes cried, slightly implausibly. Even more implausible was Glass’s reply: “My God! I hope it’s not so bad as all that.”

As it turned out, Lynes did die, and Glass was sentenced to 15 years’ penal servitude. To add insult to injury, the Conservatives won the seat by just 28 votes.

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

So...fun fact. Rishi Sunak has not been seen in front of a tv camera since he apologised for D-Day at about 9am on Friday morning. Leading from the front then. 

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

6 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said:

So...fun fact. Rishi Sunak has not been seen in front of a tv camera since he apologised for D-Day at about 9am on Friday morning. Leading from the front then. 

Appeared in a Flickr post though 

 

 

 

 

[Philheybrookbay1 247]

Beginning to think they only way for things to improve for Tories would be literally for them to do and say nothing. They've a worse case of Foot and Mouth than in 2001... 

[En Passant 3,743]

1 hour ago, Philheybrookbay1 said:

Tories would be literally for them to do and say nothing

 

If they'd taken that stance in 2010 they'd be much better off today, come to think of it so would we.

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

Wonder what odds you'd get on Holden  managing to lose Basildon.

[YoungWillz 21,081]

3 minutes ago, DCI Frank Burnside said:

Wonder what odds you'd get on Holden  managing to lose Basildon.

Apparently he's already blocked a Basildon residents' association on the XMusk. 

 

Which is a great look. 

[TQR 14,414]

9 minutes ago, DCI Frank Burnside said:

Wonder what odds you'd get on Holden  managing to lose Basildon.

 

But Emily Thornberry Emily Thornberry Emily Thornberry Emily Thornberry.

 

Oh, and he's just blocked Basildon on Twitter.

 

[The Old Crem 3,611]

Turnout is going to be a big factor in the result. 

[Bibliogryphon 9,597]

 

11 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

Turnout is going to be a big factor in the result

 

 

Looking at this data there is the argument that close fought elections will improve turnout (74 & 92)

 

I suspect the fall between 92 and 97 was more to do with Conservatives sitting on their hands rather than voting for an alternative party and this is as dangerous for the Conservatives as it is for Labour. However with Reform now polling significantly there is someone that some of them on the right of the party might be willing to vote for. Starmer and Davey are making the play for former One Nation tories

 

In the past I have voted Green or Lib Dem when it has looked like a Conservative walk over in my constituency but if there is a possibility of ousting the incumbent Conservative then I would stick with Labour

 

The last election was held in December and that might have put some people off but there is a real swing against the Conservatives at the moment which might make people want to play the part in kicking them out.

 

It is also possible that the Conservatives are getting their bad headlines in early with the hope of Labour slipping up in the next three weeks.

 

[The Old Crem 3,611]

4 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

 

 

 

Looking at this data there is the argument that close fought elections will improve turnout (74 & 92)

 

I suspect the fall between 92 and 97 was more to do with Conservatives sitting on their hands rather than voting for an alternative party and this is as dangerous for the Conservatives as it is for Labour. However with Reform now polling significantly there is someone that some of them on the right of the party might be willing to vote for. Starmer and Davey are making the play for former One Nation tories

 

In the past I have voted Green or Lib Dem when it has looked like a Conservative walk over in my constituency but if there is a possibility of ousting the incumbent Conservative then I would stick with Labour

 

The last election was held in December and that might have put some people off but there is a real swing against the Conservatives at the moment which might make people want to play the part in kicking them out.

 

It is also possible that the Conservatives are getting their bad headlines in early with the hope of Labour slipping up in the next three weeks.

 

I think there is also a growing feeling that everyone is as bad as each other which will lower turnout. In safe labour seats in particular it could be very low.

[YoungWillz 21,081]

Good to Sunak again.

 

Interview done in a pub. Sunak doesn't drink.

 

Says he wants to toughen up sentences and more bobbies on the beat. With the prisons full to bursting, where are all these new prisoners going to go? Unless he's planning to release more crims early?

 

Says he wants the law to show no mercy. Then begs the British public to forgive him for D-Day fiasco. Surely all the criminals should just apologise, beg for forgiveness and we can move on.

 

I've never seen anyone less sincere about an apology than Johnson. That takes some doing.

[Bibliogryphon 9,597]

6 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

I think there is also a growing feeling that everyone is as bad as each other.

 

That is the line that is used to suppress turnout. The media often use Vox Pop to push this line. I actually hate Vox Pop on really significant issues because you do not know how they selected which ones to use and how many people they had to speak to to get them to say what they wanted to broadcast

 

As the manifestos are published everyone should be encouraged to look at vote for policies or some other comparative forum to see what aligns with their values

 

However if the answers come back as Conservative or Reform then you should probably check your values

 

I have no time for Keir Starmer he is weak light blue turncoat who has nothing to say on the really big issues (Brexit and Climate) but I think a Labour Government will not be so out of touch and will try to govern for a larger percentage of the population than this lot who only seem interested in the 1%

[YoungWillz 21,081]

I was rather hoping for Ed Davey to arrive at his manifesto launch by jumping off a trampoline and doing a forward roll on a crash mat.

 

But fear not, he's off to ride a roller coaster this afternoon!

 

His policies sound most in touch with the public. If he's Leader of the Opposition (as some polls predict) PMQs could be fun.