DCI Frank Burnside 3,887 Posted June 7 Hilarious thing is not even Boris would have fucked up as badly yesterday and yet Rishi managed to in spades 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bibliogryphon 9,585 Posted June 7 2 hours ago, DCI Frank Burnside said: On the electoral calculus website this seat is number 326 on Labour's list which means if they want a majority this seat needs to fall These things are not always linear so Mordaunt's incumbency and local popularity might be enough to buck the national trend and keep her in her seat Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Old Crem 3,606 Posted June 7 19 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said: On the electoral calculus website this seat is number 326 on Labour's list which means if they want a majority this seat needs to fall These things are not always linear so Mordaunt's incumbency and local popularity might be enough to buck the national trend and keep her in her seat I’m surprised it’s that high up. It was not seen in 2015 as a major target seat for Labour. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bibliogryphon 9,585 Posted June 7 3 minutes ago, The Old Crem said: I’m surprised it’s that high up. It was not seen in 2015 as a major target seat for Labour. The electoral calculus list is ranked according to the predicted difference between the Labour and the Conservative vote. It does not take account of the presence of third parties. They currently have Reform polling at 14% in Portsmouth North which is why they are calling it for Labour. I think these figures will change as Polling Day approaches but even if all those votes go from Reform to the Conservatives then Penny is not out of the woods yet Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RoverAndOut 4,746 Posted June 7 1 hour ago, DCI Frank Burnside said: The question is does she disavow him tonight in the debate? Trying to save her seat and setting her stall out for the leadership? A fine line to tread if she does... 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sod's Law 445 Posted June 7 51 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said: The question is does she disavow him tonight in the debate? Trying to save her seat and setting her stall out for the leadership? A fine line to tread if she does... Or she could defend him to death and he rewards her for her 'loyalty' by pulling strings and having her plonked in a safer seat elsewhere. Extremely risky either way. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bibliogryphon 9,585 Posted June 7 38 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said: The question is does she disavow him tonight in the debate? Trying to save her seat and setting her stall out for the leadership? A fine line to tread if she does... She will have the party line which is that she says "The Prime Minister has recognised that he made an uncharacteristic error of judgement and has apologised" then follow it up with a selection of weasel words about how much veterans are valued before making a point about Labour not being trusted with the security. She will probably be aware that she is also fighting for the seats of her colleagues and this could effectively be an application for the Leader of the Opposition position if she is still in place after the election 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bibliogryphon 9,585 Posted June 7 1 minute ago, Sod's Law said: Or she could defend him to death and he rewards her for her 'loyalty' by pulling strings and having her plonked in a safer seat elsewhere. Extremely risky either way. Nominations close at 4pm today. It is too late to be switching seats now Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TQR 14,398 Posted June 7 On Betfair, the odds of the Tories getting less than 20% of the vote share is down to 13/8, and them getting 50 seats or fewer is at an Odds Boost of 6/1. Not an ad (please gamble responsibly), just a point of interest/amusement. Though I might have a flutter. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
YoungWillz 21,050 Posted June 7 Minister for Children David Johnston doesn't know what the amount of child allowance is: https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/minister-children-doesnt-know-child-benefit-allowance-nick-ferrari/ Johnston is the current MP for Wantage with a majority of just under 13000. He is standing in the new constituency of Didcot and Wantage. Inept. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bibliogryphon 9,585 Posted June 7 Just now, YoungWillz said: Johnston is the current MP for Wantage with a majority of just under 13000. He is standing in the new constituency of Didcot and Wantage. Inept. No its inoxfordshire 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Toast 16,140 Posted June 7 6 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said: No its inoxfordshire It's in what I like to call Occupied North Berkshire. 4 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bibliogryphon 9,585 Posted June 7 Tory candidate for Hemel Hempstead withdraws about an hour before the nomination deadline 1 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Old Crem 3,606 Posted June 7 9 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said: Tory candidate for Hemel Hempstead withdraws about an hour before the nomination deadline Under investigation after a complaint. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Old Crem 3,606 Posted June 7 36 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said: She will have the party line which is that she says "The Prime Minister has recognised that he made an uncharacteristic error of judgement and has apologised" then follow it up with a selection of weasel words about how much veterans are valued before making a point about Labour not being trusted with the security. She will probably be aware that she is also fighting for the seats of her colleagues and this could effectively be an application for the Leader of the Opposition position if she is still in place after the election The way things are going she might become leader before polling day. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DCI Frank Burnside 3,887 Posted June 7 Oh man they are so so fucked Mordunt must be wishing she wasn't doing that debate now 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RoverAndOut 4,746 Posted June 7 The thing is, the D-Day thing is unspinnable. He ditched it to do an extended political interview during a general election campaign. Bad. But his defence is that it's been in the diary for months even before the election was called. In which case he was always planning to bail on D-Day whether there was an election or not. That's worse. We're still quite a way out from the election but this feels like a "dementia tax" or "bigoted woman" moment. Something totally avoidable that suffocates everything else. So much for that post-debate boost. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bentrovato 1,088 Posted June 7 Leicester has some great secondhand record stores and....... Disgraced Keith Vaz kicked out of Labour as he stands for One Leicester party (msn.com) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Brad252 807 Posted June 7 15 hours ago, YoungWillz said: But in addition to Grant Shapps, Michael Green, Corinne Stockheath and Sebastian Fox were all also there. They're all standing in separate constituencies to help alleviate their candidate shortage. 5 hours ago, DCI Frank Burnside said: Penny Mordaunt finding out the hard way that, when you live by the sword... 2 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
YoungWillz 21,050 Posted June 7 Binface for Richmond. 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TQR 14,398 Posted June 7 Time for another GE result prediction based on a poll? Go on then. WeThink Polling (6-7 Jun) has this: Sunak's recent antics could mean we see more and more predictions like this. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Old Crem 3,606 Posted June 7 57 minutes ago, Bentrovato said: Leicester has some great secondhand record stores and....... Disgraced Keith Vaz kicked out of Labour as he stands for One Leicester party (msn.com) That is the most likely seat for shock Tory gain.The Tories won the local electionsin the seat easily last year. Apparently no Tory candidate in Rotherham. Bad news for Labour as that could mean the reform candidate wins - the combined vote of the Tories and Brexit Party in 2019 would have won the seat. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Thatcher 2,417 Posted June 7 Independent standing in Bromsgrove as she resigns from the Labour Party. Jo Gideon, former MP for Stoke on Trent Central had plenty to say this afternoon. Penny has some serious decisions to make before she takes to the podium tonight. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DCI Frank Burnside 3,887 Posted June 7 Could you imagine 4 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
