The Ukraine Crisis

[arghton 6,752]

The President of Finland met Biden today. Defence Minister going to Washington on monday...

[arghton 6,752]

Russia has a long history of Heads of State/Govt dying from unnatural causes, here from 1547:

 

Feodor II (1589-1605, ruled 1605) Strangled

False Dmitry I (1582-1606, ruled 1605-1606) Killed

Vasili IV (ca. 1552-1612, ruled 1606-1610) Killed Died in custody

Ivan VI (1740-1764, ruled 1740-1741) Killed by his guards in custody

Peter III (1728-1762, ruled 1762) Stroke/Assasinated

Paul I (1754-1801, ruled 1796-1801) Assasination/coup: hit with a box, strangled

Alexander II (1818-1881, ruled 1855-1881) Assasinated with a bomb

Pyotr Stolypin (1862-1911, Head of Govt 1906-1911) Assasinated

Boris Shtyurmer (1848-1917, Head of Govt 1916) Killed Died in custody

Ivan Goremykin (1839-1917, Head of Govt 1906) Killed in a robbery

Nicholas II (1868-1918, ruled 1894-1917) Executed

Viktor Pepelyayev (1885-1920, Head of Govt 1919-1920) Executed

Nikolai Golitsyn (1850-1925, PM 1917) Executed

Lev Kamenev (1883-1936, "Head of State" 1917) Executed

Ivan Syrtsov (1883-1937, Head of Govt 1929-1930) Executed

Daniil Sulimov (1890-1937, Head of Govt 1930-1937) Executed

Alexei Rykov (1881-1938, Premier 1924-1930, Head of Govt 1924-1929) Executed

Mikhail Rodionov (1907-1950, Head of Govt 1946-1949) Executed

Yegor Gaidar (1956-2009, Acting PM 1992) Complications from poisoning Pulmonary edema

Vladimir Putin (1952-Unfortunately not yet, hopefully soon...

[ladyfiona 2,589]

 

For context. The song is called 1944 and about how Russians killed people/her family in a genocide.

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

Sky News' Chief Correspondent Stuart Ramsay and his crew came under fire from a Russian ambush in Kyiv. Ramsay wounded, but all somehow survived. The footage is terrifying.

 

https://news.sky.com/story/sky-news-teams-harrowing-account-of-their-violent-ambush-in-ukraine-this-week-12557585

[The Old Crem 3,606]

Ukraine must have a dreadful birthrate  if only 400 babies have been born in 9 days. 1500+ a day are born in England and Wales and Ukraine has two thirds the population of England and wales.,

[Boudicca 702]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/recode/22962274/russia-block-facebook-restrict-twitter-putin-censorship-ukraine

 

Ruskie FB Maws fucking off to MumsNyet then. 

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

7 hours ago, The Old Crem said:

Ukraine must have a dreadful birthrate  if only 400 babies have been born in 9 days. 1500+ a day are born in England and Wales and Ukraine has two thirds the population of England and wales.,

 

Have you considered:

1. How many pregnant women decided to leave the country in the past month or so to be somewhere safer?

2. How many pregnant women have evacuated since war began last week?

3. That getting accurate numbers rather than anecdotal reports in the middle of a war zone is nigh on impossible?

 

Honest to God... 

[The Old Crem 3,606]

2 hours ago, RoverAndOut said:

 

Have you considered:

1. How many pregnant women decided to leave the country in the past month or so to be somewhere safer?

2. How many pregnant women have evacuated since war began last week?

3. That getting accurate numbers rather than anecdotal reports in the middle of a war zone is nigh on impossible?

 

Honest to God... 

 

I’ve just checked and it looks like the figure is actually just for Kyiv. The Ukrainian Mp mis tweeted country for city. But the original quote is just for Kyiv.

[arghton 6,752]

18 hours ago, arghton said:

The President of Finland met Biden today. Defence Minister going to Washington on monday...

Finland and Sweden applying to become Major non-NATO allies according to Iltalehti

(https://www.iltalehti.fi/politiikka/a/a5f72427-d975-4ece-adc3-be7703c3ade7)

[The Old Crem 3,606]

I feel the west won’t be able to resist a no fly zone past 1st April if the war escalates.

[msc 18,476]

1 hour ago, The Old Crem said:

I feel the west won’t be able to resist a no fly zone past 1st April if the war escalates.

 

I'm just going to humour this for a second.

 

Noting that the Russians are yet to gain aerial domination (which is really incompetent) and that a no fly zone would cripple the Ukrainian drones doing much of their defence...

 

How are you planning for the "west" to operate no fly zone in the Ukraine? Would their jets be in the war zone itself and thus liable to be destroyed with precision striking? Or is Orban, Iohannis or Duda going to make an 11th hour u-turn against their own self-interests? 

 

We don't have the infrastructure capabilities or the geography to run a no fly zone, let alone the desire.

[The Old Crem 3,606]

9 minutes ago, msc said:

 

I'm just going to humour this for a second.

 

Noting that the Russians are yet to gain aerial domination (which is really incompetent) and that a no fly zone would cripple the Ukrainian drones doing much of their defence...

 

How are you planning for the "west" to operate no fly zone in the Ukraine? Would their jets be in the war zone itself and thus liable to be destroyed with precision striking? Or is Orban, Iohannis or Duda going to make an 11th hour u-turn against their own self-interests? 

 

We don't have the infrastructure capabilities or the geography to run a no fly zone, let alone the desire.

It just feels like it’s the type of thing that won’t work and shouldn’t be done but the pressure to do so will become so big it ends up happening.

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

2 hours ago, The Old Crem said:

I feel the west won’t be able to resist a no fly zone past 1st April if the war escalates.

 

Is this the same feeling that told us the Queen wouldn't see Christmas? In which case, I'll pass.

[MortalCaso 1,629]

4 hours ago, The Old Crem said:

It just feels like it’s the type of thing that won’t work and shouldn’t be done but the pressure to do so will become so big it ends up happening.

Pressure from who exactly?

[prussianblue 1,038]

An interesting map which aims to counter the idea of large territorial gains and show a more accurate summary of the Russian advance. In short, they control roads and the settlements along them, but not the land in between.

 

The defence analyst I saw that shared it compared it to the Axis forces in Yugoslavia and the Soviets in Afghanistan, two situations where large insurgencies kept those occupation forces very busy before they were ultimately forced to withdraw.

[MortalCaso 1,629]

1 minute ago, prussianblue said:

An interesting map which aims to counter the idea of large territorial gains and show a more accurate summary of the Russian advance. In short, they control roads and the settlements along them, but not the land in between.

 

The defence analyst I saw that shared it compared it to the Axis forces in Yugoslavia and the Soviets in Afghanistan, two situations where large insurgencies kept those occupation forces very busy before they were ultimately forced to withdraw.

I saw this posted on Twitter earlier. Don't necessarily agree with it, seems like a Ukraine talking point more than anything realistic IMO. 

 

Even the land Russians take though, they still fight for everyday. 

[Sir Creep 7,070]

A Russian warship that fired on a group of Ukrainian border guards after being told to “go f–k yourself” was destroyed in battle, according to a report Tuesday.
SC

[prussianblue 1,038]

You really have to wonder about Russian long-term strategy when they continue to reduce Mariupol and other settlements to ruins and brutalise their residents (the ones this war is meant to be about liberating). Bombing civilian targets to smithereens in Syria is one thing, frankly what does the average Russian care about some far away Arabs living in bombed-out buildings? However, presumably Russia wants to annexe and integrate these Ukrainian lands into Russia proper, and ultimately derive some benefit from them. Given the circumstances, the population aren't going to be loyal citizens generating healthy tax revenues any time soon.

[arghton 6,752]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-acknowledges-conscripts-were-part-ukraine-operation-some-taken-prisoner-2022-03-09/

March 9 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry acknowledged on Wednesday that some conscripts were taking part in the conflict with Ukraine after President Vladimir Putin denied this on various occasions, saying only professional soldiers and officers had been sent in.

 

Citing Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov, the RIA news agency said Putin had ordered military prosecutors to investigate and punish the officials responsible for disobeying his instructions to exclude conscripts from the operation.

[Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,219]

Two observations.

We all thought that the Russian war machine was highly trained, efficient & effective. 

The truth is that they are utterly shit.

All of those Ukrainians heading to Lille/Calais to try and get visas in to the UK? Fuck that.

If they have passports, jump on a cheap flight to blighty them claim asylum when they arrive. They cannot be sent back.

Alternatively, get on a dinghy in Calais and they will be picked up by coastguard, bought here and, as we have seen, won't be returned.

[CastAway 488]

while Chernobyl going offline isn't as much of a concern given the fuel rods are basically spent and there's little risk of another leak from there, this is concerning:

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-10/un-watchdog-lose-data-chernobyl-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-plant/100898202

 

Zaporizhzhia no longer transmitting data to UN nuclear watchdog + reports staff have been tortured and the same shift has been working w/o a break since the takeover by the Russians. neither is a good option for the largest NPP in Europe, and both risks catastrophe

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

8 hours ago, CastAway said:

while Chernobyl going offline isn't as much of a concern given the fuel rods are basically spent and there's little risk of another leak from there, this is concerning:

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-10/un-watchdog-lose-data-chernobyl-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-plant/100898202

 

Zaporizhzhia no longer transmitting data to UN nuclear watchdog + reports staff have been tortured and the same shift has been working w/o a break since the takeover by the Russians. neither is a good option for the largest NPP in Europe, and both risks catastrophe

 

Interestingly, I saw today that Lukashenko has ordered Belarusian help to fix the electrical supply to Chernobyl. Seems one European despot at least is worried about the impact of nuclear radiation floating over his country...

[prussianblue 1,038]

2 hours ago, RoverAndOut said:

 

Interestingly, I saw today that Lukashenko has ordered Belarusian help to fix the electrical supply to Chernobyl. Seems one European despot at least is worried about the impact of nuclear radiation floating over his country...

 

Which makes sense, as while the Chernobyl plant is (just) within Ukraine, it was Belarus that got the worst of the fallout thanks to the prevailing winds.

[prussianblue 1,038]

In a more worrying Belarusian development, seemingly the Russians have been putting heavy pressure on Lukashenko to properly join the war and invade too, and there's some suggestion that he may do so tonight.

 

All speaks to the Russians struggling for manpower, when you add it to the rules for conscription being toughened up, Putin's appeal for foreign fighters (e.g. Syrians sent by an indebted Assad), and the sizeable cohort of Chechens that are already involved. On the BBC last night a reporter was casually walking past a couple of bodies lying in the snow that apparently had Chechen ID on them.

[Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,219]

2 hours ago, prussianblue said:

In a more worrying Belarusian development, seemingly the Russians have been putting heavy pressure on Lukashenko to properly join the war and invade too, and there's some suggestion that he may do so tonight.

 

All speaks to the Russians struggling for manpower, when you add it to the rules for conscription being toughened up, Putin's appeal for foreign fighters (e.g. Syrians sent by an indebted Assad), and the sizeable cohort of Chechens that are already involved. On the BBC last night a reporter was casually walking past a couple of bodies lying in the snow that apparently had Chechen ID on them.

The only reason Putin wants foreign fighters to join in on the invasion is to reduce the amount of fatalities within the Russian armed forces.

They may be cannon fodder to him but more and more are dead and will not be going home and the implications for any support for the invasion back in Russia is obvious.