Political Discussions And Ranting Thread

[Charlotte's Controller 195]

 The delusions of competence are finally starting to hit the brick wall for this cabinet. Liz truss sat there with a weak smile on her face. Nothing to do, perhaps she will be allowed to do some brewing up or photocopying, she has failed to deliver, lead or represent the country with any merit she completely lacks gravitas. King Charles was right in his assessment.

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

Ok, so let's dream for a minute...

 

Electoral Calculus suggests that on current polling, the Tories would be left with just 48 sitting MPs, to Labour's 507 at a General Election held tomorrow. Given that the leader of the party has to be a sitting MP, their pool of potential leaders will be significantly smaller than it is pre-election. Here's a list of all the Tory MPs that would survive based on Electoral Calculus's model. Still some scary names in here (ordered by largest majority):

 

1. John Hayes (South Holland and The Deepings)

2. Matt Warman (Boston and Skegness)

3. Rebecca Harris (Castle Point)

4. John Whittingdale (Maldon)

5. Victoria Atkins (Louth and Horncastle)

6. Alex Burghart (Brentwood and Ongar)

7. Mark Francois (Rayleigh and Wickford)

8. Christopher Chope (Christchurch)

9. Michael Tomlinson (Dorset Mid and Poole North)

10. Gavin Williamson (Staffordshire South)

11. Flick Drummond (Meon Valley)

12. Duncan Baker (Norfolk North)

13. Scott Mann (Cornwall North)

14. Giles Watling (Clacton)

15. Paul Beresford (Mole Valley)

16. Caroline Johnson (Sleaford and North Hykeham)

17. Luke Hall (Thornbury and Yate)

18. Simon Hoare (Dorset North)

19. Marcus Fysh (Yeovil)

20. Joy Morrisey (Beaconsfield)

21. Steve Barclay (Cambridgeshire North East)

22. Ranil Jayawardena (Hampshire North East)

23. Desmond Swayne (New Forest West)

24. Nadim Zahawi (Stratford-on-Avon)

25. Jeremy Hunt (Surrey South West)

26. Laura Farris (Newbury)

27. James Gray (Wiltshire North)

28. Kemi Badenoch (Saffron Waldron)

29. Nigel Huddleston (Worcestershire Mid)

30. Philip Dunne (Ludlow)

31. Damian Hinds (Hampshire East)

32. Julian Lewis (New Forest East)

33. Selaine Saxby (Devon North)

34. Wendy Morton (Aldridge-Brownhills)

35. Michael Gove (Surrey Heath)

36. Rishi Sunak (Richmond)

37. Andrew Percy (Brigg and Goole)

38. Greg Smith (Buckingham)

39. Chris Heaton-Harris (Daventry)

40. Alicia Kearns (Rutland and Melton)

41. Chris Loder (Dorset West)

42. Bill Wiggin (Herefordshire North)

43. Luke Evans (Bosworth)

44. Edward Leigh (Gainsborough)

45. Andrew Jones (Harrogate and Knaresborough)

46. Liz Truss (Norfolk South West)

47. Gareth Davies (Grantham and Stamford)

48. Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (The Cotswolds)

 

Leadership would presumably come down to Sunak, Badenoch and Zahawi. Hunt would still be there if he was incumbent, so would Truss! And Michael Gove. The rest made up of nobodies and gammons.

 

If they were able to gain 6% in the polls (losing around 44-30 to Labour, a 14-point gap), Labour's majority would be slashed to 74 (from nearly 400). This would still see the following prominent Tories lose their seats (plenty of Portillo moments!):

(in order of most likely to fall) Theresa Villiers, Iain Duncan Smith, Alok Sharma, Steve Baker, Robert Buckland, Boris Johnson, Sir Graham Brady, George Eustice, Tobias Ellwood, Grant Shapps, Johnny Mercer, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Penny Mordaunt. Alister Jack, David Mundell and Douglas Ross (the Scottish Tory Leader) would all lose their seats to the SNP in addition.

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

18 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said:

Ok, so let's dream for a minute...

 

Electoral Calculus suggests that on current polling, the Tories would be left with just 48 sitting MPs, to Labour's 507 at a General Election held tomorrow. Given that the leader of the party has to be a sitting MP, their pool of potential leaders will be significantly smaller than it is pre-election. Here's a list of all the Tory MPs that would survive based on Electoral Calculus's model. Still some scary names in here (ordered by largest majority):

 

1. John Hayes (South Holland and The Deepings)

2. Matt Warman (Boston and Skegness)

3. Rebecca Harris (Castle Point)

4. John Whittingdale (Maldon)

5. Victoria Atkins (Louth and Horncastle)

6. Alex Burghart (Brentwood and Ongar)

7. Mark Francois (Rayleigh and Wickford)

8. Christopher Chope (Christchurch)

9. Michael Tomlinson (Dorset Mid and Poole North)

10. Gavin Williamson (Staffordshire South)

11. Flick Drummond (Meon Valley)

12. Duncan Baker (Norfolk North)

13. Scott Mann (Cornwall North)

14. Giles Watling (Clacton)

15. Paul Beresford (Mole Valley)

16. Caroline Johnson (Sleaford and North Hykeham)

17. Luke Hall (Thornbury and Yate)

18. Simon Hoare (Dorset North)

19. Marcus Fysh (Yeovil)

20. Joy Morrisey (Beaconsfield)

21. Steve Barclay (Cambridgeshire North East)

22. Ranil Jayawardena (Hampshire North East)

23. Desmond Swayne (New Forest West)

24. Nadim Zahawi (Stratford-on-Avon)

25. Jeremy Hunt (Surrey South West)

26. Laura Farris (Newbury)

27. James Gray (Wiltshire North)

28. Kemi Badenoch (Saffron Waldron)

29. Nigel Huddleston (Worcestershire Mid)

30. Philip Dunne (Ludlow)

31. Damian Hinds (Hampshire East)

32. Julian Lewis (New Forest East)

33. Selaine Saxby (Devon North)

34. Wendy Morton (Aldridge-Brownhills)

35. Michael Gove (Surrey Heath)

36. Rishi Sunak (Richmond)

37. Andrew Percy (Brigg and Goole)

38. Greg Smith (Buckingham)

39. Chris Heaton-Harris (Daventry)

40. Alicia Kearns (Rutland and Melton)

41. Chris Loder (Dorset West)

42. Bill Wiggin (Herefordshire North)

43. Luke Evans (Bosworth)

44. Edward Leigh (Gainsborough)

45. Andrew Jones (Harrogate and Knaresborough)

46. Liz Truss (Norfolk South West)

47. Gareth Davies (Grantham and Stamford)

48. Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (The Cotswolds)

 

Leadership would presumably come down to Sunak, Badenoch and Zahawi. Hunt would still be there if he was incumbent, so would Truss! And Michael Gove. The rest made up of nobodies and gammons.

 

If they were able to gain 6% in the polls (losing around 44-30 to Labour, a 14-point gap), Labour's majority would be slashed to 74 (from nearly 400). This would still see the following prominent Tories lose their seats (plenty of Portillo moments!):

(in order of most likely to fall) Theresa Villiers, Iain Duncan Smith, Alok Sharma, Steve Baker, Robert Buckland, Boris Johnson, Sir Graham Brady, George Eustice, Tobias Ellwood, Grant Shapps, Johnny Mercer, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Penny Mordaunt. Alister Jack, David Mundell and Douglas Ross (the Scottish Tory Leader) would all lose their seats to the SNP in addition.

Me if Rees Mogg loses his seat:

 

 

[maryportfuncity 10,647]

7 minutes ago, DCI Frank Burnside said:

Me if Rees Mogg loses his seat:

 

 

 

 

Rees Mogg isn't that safe Frank, likely you'll be painting the walls unless they manage more than a rearguard action from here.

[maryportfuncity 10,647]

27 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said:

Ok, so let's dream for a minute...

 

Electoral Calculus suggests that on current polling, the Tories would be left with just 48 sitting MPs, to Labour's 507 at a General Election held tomorrow. Given that the leader of the party has to be a sitting MP, their pool of potential leaders will be significantly smaller than it is pre-election. Here's a list of all the Tory MPs that would survive based on Electoral Calculus's model. Still some scary names in here (ordered by largest majority):

 

1. John Hayes (South Holland and The Deepings)

2. Matt Warman (Boston and Skegness)

3. Rebecca Harris (Castle Point)

4. John Whittingdale (Maldon)

5. Victoria Atkins (Louth and Horncastle)

6. Alex Burghart (Brentwood and Ongar)

7. Mark Francois (Rayleigh and Wickford)

8. Christopher Chope (Christchurch)

9. Michael Tomlinson (Dorset Mid and Poole North)

10. Gavin Williamson (Staffordshire South)

11. Flick Drummond (Meon Valley)

12. Duncan Baker (Norfolk North)

13. Scott Mann (Cornwall North)

14. Giles Watling (Clacton)

15. Paul Beresford (Mole Valley)

16. Caroline Johnson (Sleaford and North Hykeham)

17. Luke Hall (Thornbury and Yate)

18. Simon Hoare (Dorset North)

19. Marcus Fysh (Yeovil)

20. Joy Morrisey (Beaconsfield)

21. Steve Barclay (Cambridgeshire North East)

22. Ranil Jayawardena (Hampshire North East)

23. Desmond Swayne (New Forest West)

24. Nadim Zahawi (Stratford-on-Avon)

25. Jeremy Hunt (Surrey South West)

26. Laura Farris (Newbury)

27. James Gray (Wiltshire North)

28. Kemi Badenoch (Saffron Waldron)

29. Nigel Huddleston (Worcestershire Mid)

30. Philip Dunne (Ludlow)

31. Damian Hinds (Hampshire East)

32. Julian Lewis (New Forest East)

33. Selaine Saxby (Devon North)

34. Wendy Morton (Aldridge-Brownhills)

35. Michael Gove (Surrey Heath)

36. Rishi Sunak (Richmond)

37. Andrew Percy (Brigg and Goole)

38. Greg Smith (Buckingham)

39. Chris Heaton-Harris (Daventry)

40. Alicia Kearns (Rutland and Melton)

41. Chris Loder (Dorset West)

42. Bill Wiggin (Herefordshire North)

43. Luke Evans (Bosworth)

44. Edward Leigh (Gainsborough)

45. Andrew Jones (Harrogate and Knaresborough)

46. Liz Truss (Norfolk South West)

47. Gareth Davies (Grantham and Stamford)

48. Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (The Cotswolds)

 

Leadership would presumably come down to Sunak, Badenoch and Zahawi. Hunt would still be there if he was incumbent, so would Truss! And Michael Gove. The rest made up of nobodies and gammons.

 

If they were able to gain 6% in the polls (losing around 44-30 to Labour, a 14-point gap), Labour's majority would be slashed to 74 (from nearly 400). This would still see the following prominent Tories lose their seats (plenty of Portillo moments!):

(in order of most likely to fall) Theresa Villiers, Iain Duncan Smith, Alok Sharma, Steve Baker, Robert Buckland, Boris Johnson, Sir Graham Brady, George Eustice, Tobias Ellwood, Grant Shapps, Johnny Mercer, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Penny Mordaunt. Alister Jack, David Mundell and Douglas Ross (the Scottish Tory Leader) would all lose their seats to the SNP in addition.

 

But in that scenario it's "leadership" in a world where HM's opposition all represent places north of Carlisle. I.e. the Tory leader then is as important in the commons as Ian Blackford now

 

[Toast 16,140]

Hmm.  My constituency is on the list of retained seats, but while it will never be taken by Labour, it's been held by Lib Dems in the past. 

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

Just now, Toast said:

Hmm.  My constituency is on the list of retained seats, but while it will never be taken by Labour, it's been held by Lib Dems in the past. 

 

I think it will be interesting how effective tactical voting is in punishing the Tories around the country. Hard to imagine less than 48 MPs though, but I doubt their predictions are foolproof.

[YoungWillz 21,050]

This might assume the incumbents want to stand again, any word on who from that list might be considering standing down? In such an event, no loyalty to the member.

 

The horror show of a Conservative party being led by Chope or Leigh for example....

[Charlotte's Controller 195]

I note that last week the House of Lords had a robot, it had been pre programmed with some responses but looked quite good and gave some considered responses.

 

The version in the Lower house was rolled our yesterday. It sat on the front bench nd smiled but did not really respond, the blinking eyes vacant look and lack of Teflon coating suggested the prototype PM requires more work.

[Toast 16,140]

12 hours ago, YoungWillz said:

This might assume the incumbents want to stand again, any word on who from that list might be considering standing down? In such an event, no loyalty to the member.

 

There are different kinds of loyalty though.  Ours was a first-timer in the last election.  Chosen by the party because their father was MP for the constituency for many years in the 20thC. 

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

7 minutes ago, Toast said:

There are different kinds of loyalty though.  Ours was a first-timer in the last election.  Chosen by the party because their father was MP for the constituency for many years in the 20thC. 

 

I think with that I can work out where you live!

[Toast 16,140]

29 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said:

I think with that I can work out where you live!

 

You can probably narrow it down to the constituency, anyway 

[TQR 14,398]

Merciful god…

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

22 minutes ago, TQR said:

Merciful god…

 

She's a better option than Boris. Definitely boring. As a caretaker while yet another leadership contest takes place, I'd rather have her than Truss. And she wouldn't run for leader again so would be a neutral party. She's the closest thing to a Tory elder the party currently has I'd say, with the rest either being ostracised or gammons. But she won't get it. We're stuck with Liz until they settle on a replacement or the markets are spooked again by her deer in the headlights approach. So probably tomorrow lunchtime, after PMQs.

[Toast 16,140]

 

 

[Toast 16,140]

[TQR 14,398]

24 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said:

 

She's a better option than Boris. Definitely boring. As a caretaker while yet another leadership contest takes place, I'd rather have her than Truss. And she wouldn't run for leader again so would be a neutral party. She's the closest thing to a Tory elder the party currently has I'd say, with the rest either being ostracised or gammons. But she won't get it. We're stuck with Liz until they settle on a replacement or the markets are spooked again by her deer in the headlights approach. So probably tomorrow lunchtime, after PMQs.

Well, I know all that, you know all that, the vast majority of Tories however…fuck knows. All we can do is watch the party die, aghast at the gurgly noises it’s making.

 

 

3 minutes ago, Toast said:

 

 

I see this one is more to your liking in terms of the local MP situation  

[Toast 16,140]

30 minutes ago, TQR said:

I see this one is more to your liking in terms of the local MP situation  

 

It's the best possible outcome.

 

(To be clear - in my constituency.)

[msc 18,477]

The Opinium MRP thing didn't acknowledge tactical voting. It had high Labour and Lib Dem votes in target seats when likely the non-challenging one there will be squeezed. So their "only 140" Tory MPs (before the polling collapse) was probably kind on current numbers.

 

13 minutes ago, Toast said:

 

It's the best possible outcome.

 

I quite like the look of the 1993 Canadian elections, myself.

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

May would be a sensible logical "safe pair of hands" choice which means of course they'll probably give it to Boris

[gcreptile 10,972]

14 minutes ago, DCI Frank Burnside said:

May would be a sensible logical "safe pair of hands" choice which means of course they'll probably give it to Boris

Yes, it's very possible:

https://news.sky.com/story/majority-of-tory-party-members-want-truss-to-resign-now-and-want-boris-johnson-to-replace-her-12723609

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,346]

1 hour ago, msc said:

The Opinium MRP thing didn't acknowledge tactical voting. It had high Labour and Lib Dem votes in target seats when likely the non-challenging one there will be squeezed. So their "only 140" Tory MPs (before the polling collapse) was probably kind on current numbers.

 

 

I quite like the look of the 1993 Canadian elections, myself.

The reversal of fortune is quite astounding.  I felt after the big tory victory in 2019 that they had at least another decade in power.I don't think I have ever known such a dramatic and quick turnabout of political fortune. 

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

 

[Windsor 2,233]

4 minutes ago, DCI Frank Burnside said:

 

 

Chunt.

As in Chancellor Hunt.

[Windsor 2,233]

10 hours ago, TQR said:

Merciful god…

This is my preferred option. Nobody in their right mind with any ambition wants to take the Tory Party into the next election (unless there was a guarantee they wouldn’t have to resign after the inevitable pummelling). They need to set up someone who knows they aren’t going to be PM after the election and are at peace with that. A has been would do that.

 

Of all the Tory leaders since 2010 I find May the least objectionable. I think after Johnson and Truss, she would look very competent and boring might be welcome after the last 3 years!