Political Discussions And Ranting Thread

[YoungWillz 18,948]

On ‎5‎/‎18‎/‎2017 at 20:54, YoungWillz said:

I'm going to say it now - hung Parliament.

Just leaving this here. Portugal in Eurovish and this. And still I can't predict deaths for love or money.

 

Would have been better had Labour voters in Scotland not held their noses and voted Tory, thus allowing Tezza's party to gain the keys to the citadel.

 

Question remains, who will replace Tezza? Majorities of potential candidates slashed across the country. Liz Truss? Justine Greening? Don't make me laugh....

 

[Joey Russ 7,118]

On 5/18/2017 at 15:03, msc said:

If its a hung parliament, you need to take over the Deathlist Cup, because I will die due to overdose of schadenfreude.

RIP. 

[YoungWillz 18,948]

Just now, Joey Russ said:

RIP. 

I am ready to serve, ha ha.

[Deathray 2,933]

So we've got 10 abstentionists in the new parliament (7 Sinn Fein and 1 Speakers and 3 Deputy Speakers (2 Lab, 1 Con)). 

 

It's looking like an effective majority of 16 in the house for the government. This'll increase to 18 if she keeps Kensington and Chelsea.

 

Right/Centre Right

Conservative 316 (if they don't hold Kensington and Chelsea)

DUP 10

Government 326 + Sylvia Hermon = 327

 

Left/Centre-Left 

Labour 259

SNP 35

Lib Dem 12

Plaid Cymru 4

Green 1

Total: 311

 

That's a hell of a lot better than it could have been for Theresa May. It also means she'll be able to win some votes without the support of the DUP'; crucially. Can imagine the whips will be working overtime this parliament, may we see the return of politicians being taken to the house of commons on stretchers as in the 1974-79 parliament?

[YoungWillz 18,948]

Tie in the English Votes For English Laws though. Tories can do what they like on those matters.

 

Given the kicking they've had nationally, what do they change? Which direction do they travel? Any major alteration to their manifesto is a pledge broken and the risk is their own backbenchers could flip at any time. Major was lame duck by the end, followed by a Labour landslide. Another election simply gives the belief to Labour voters they can win and more seats turn red.

 

I was too young to remember the Wilson minority, but that was a change from Heath and the three day week, power cuts etc and the public re-elected him to give him a chance - again the belief was there.

 

Damned if they do, damned if they don't...fun times.

[Deathray 2,933]

5 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

Tie in the English Votes For English Laws though. Tories can do what they like on those matters.

 

Given the kicking they've had nationally, what do they change? Which direction do they travel? Any major alteration to their manifesto is a pledge broken and the risk is their own backbenchers could flip at any time. Major was lame duck by the end, followed by a Labour landslide. Another election simply gives the belief to Labour voters they can win and more seats turn red.

 

I was too young to remember the Wilson minority, but that was a change from Heath and the three day week, power cuts etc and the public re-elected him to give him a chance - again the belief was there.

 

Damned if they do, damned if they don't...fun times.

 

Forgot completely about English votes for English laws, obviously that's a bit clearer at 297-235.

 

[Deathray 2,933]

Theresa May doing the "oh fuck I can't sack him, or her or him" cabinet reshuffle.

[Deathray 2,933]

 

[RadGuy 1,605]

Okay, I'm a Yank so I'm not familiar with the UK system at all.

Basically, Theresa May called the snap election so she could get more Tory PMs for Brexit negotiations, right? But she done fucked up because the opposite of what she wanted happened - her party lost seats.

So, now there is a "hung parliament", where no one party gets the majority of the seats.

So.... can anybody explain to me what the consequences of that are? Does Theresa May still get to be the PM because her party has a plurality? Do the Tories need to form a coalition gov'ment with some other party? Does their need to be a re-do of the election? Am I daft?

[themaninblack 2,112]

2 hours ago, Deathray said:

So we've got 10 abstentionists in the new parliament (7 Sinn Fein and 1 Speakers and 3 Deputy Speakers (2 Lab, 1 Con)). 

 

It's looking like an effective majority of 16 in the house for the government. This'll increase to 18 if she keeps Kensington and Chelsea.

 

Right/Centre Right

Conservative 316 (if they don't hold Kensington and Chelsea)

DUP 10

Government 326 + Sylvia Hermon = 327

 

Left/Centre-Left 

Labour 259

SNP 35

Lib Dem 12

Plaid Cymru 4

Green 1

Total: 311

 

That's a hell of a lot better than it could have been for Theresa May. It also means she'll be able to win some votes without the support of the DUP'; crucially. Can imagine the whips will be working overtime this parliament, may we see the return of politicians being taken to the house of commons on stretchers as in the 1974-79 parliament?

Actually Sylvia Hermon can be considered more centre/left. She became an independent because she disagreed with the Conservative-UUP tie up a few years back...

[YoungWillz 18,948]

Kensington  turns Labour. The Election is over.

[The Mad Hatter 1,091]

19 minutes ago, RadGuy said:

Okay, I'm a Yank so I'm not familiar with the UK system at all.

Basically, Theresa May called the snap election so she could get more Tory PMs for Brexit negotiations, right? But she done fucked up because the opposite of what she wanted happened - her party lost seats.

So, now there is a "hung parliament", where no one party gets the majority of the seats.

So.... can anybody explain to me what the consequences of that are? Does Theresa May still get to be the PM because her party has a plurality? Do the Tories need to form a coalition gov'ment with some other party? Does their need to be a re-do of the election? Am I daft?

Well what she is planning is to join with the DUP (my sworn enemies) and form a coalition. Corbyn could become PM if labour and the SNP (heroes) join forces. 

[charon 4,938]

^^ lol. SNP & Labour are also sworn enemies. Tories are in with the hun vote.

[The Mad Hatter 1,091]

2 minutes ago, charon said:

^^ lol. SNP & Labour are also sworn enemies. Tories are in with the hun vote.

If labour promises them independence then they would join forces.

[Deathray 2,933]

Ok then let's have a bit of fun. Assuming that there's another election in the not too distant future what are you're early predictions for overall results;

Would be a Labour+LibDem+PC+Green minority government with some sort of unofficial arrangement with the SDLP and SNP

 

Here's mine:

Labour 294

Conservative 280

Lib Dem 21

Green 3

UKIP 5

SNP 30

Plaid Cymru 4

UUP 3

SDLP 2

DUP 6

Sinn Fein 7

Speaker 1

[Sean 5,997]

Depends when it is.6 months can make a huge difference

[maryportfuncity 9,988]

36 minutes ago, Deathray said:

Ok then let's have a bit of fun. Assuming that there's another election in the not too distant future what are you're early predictions for overall results;

Would be a Labour+LibDem+PC+Green minority government with some sort of unofficial arrangement with the SDLP and SNP

 

Here's mine:

Labour 294

Conservative 280

Lib Dem 21

Green 3

UKIP 5

SNP 30

Plaid Cymru 4

UUP 3

SDLP 2

DUP 6

Sinn Fein 7

Speaker 1

 

 

Anyone's guess  frankly but if that result came off - which I don't think cos to my mind UKIP are political toast more burned than the old SDP - I'd say a major decision for the resulting coalition/partnership of Labour/SNP/Lib Dems would be legislation to bring in PR and lock out Tory majorities for good.

[themaninblack 2,112]

Not that the Tories have been getting great majorities in recent elections...

 

2010: 19 short

2015: 12

2017: 8 short

[msc 17,712]

14 hours ago, Joey Russ said:

RIP. 

 

14 hours ago, YoungWillz said:

I am ready to serve, ha ha.

 

 

It was a close run thing, you know.

 

Nah, I can fully admit to having found the entire night's proceedings amazingly hilarious. And my MP just hung on, so there wasn't a sting in it waiting, either.

 

The SNP got a kick up their arse - maybe they can focus on health and education for a bit. Indy wasn't going to be broken or made on that vote, but the years ahead.

Lib Dems did surprisingly well - won more seats than I thought they would. Just as well, as they lost half their current seats! Surprise (imo) wins in Oxford West and Bath, some far better candidates back in (Cable, Swinson) and some seats which can now be called target seats. They also lost Cleggy, but we've not heard the last of him.

Labour held on to 27/30 of their most marginal seats, won in places they never win, and reduced around 50 stonking Tory majorities to within a 3% swing. Good night by any accounts.

Tories held onto power, but are reliant on Irish sourfaces and Scottish unionists.

 

Labour now have to make sure this is the mid 90s and not 1964, electorally speaking.

 

Also, I passed out around 5pm and just woke up.

[Deathray 2,933]

If this mornings front pages are anything to go by then May will be replaced by Boris after the Queens speech is passed.

 

[msc 17,712]

That'll be Boris who nearly managed to lose an election to Ken Livingstone in 2012.

[Deathray 2,933]

17 minutes ago, msc said:

That'll be Boris who nearly managed to lose an election to Ken Livingstone in 2012.

 

And who a large proportion of the population hate because of Brexit.

[msc 17,712]

Also:

 

[Sean 5,997]

On 6/9/2017 at 18:50, Deathray said:

So we've got 10 abstentionists in the new parliament (7 Sinn Fein and 1 Speakers and 3 Deputy Speakers (2 Lab, 1 Con)). 

 

It's looking like an effective majority of 16 in the house for the government. This'll increase to 18 if she keeps Kensington and Chelsea.

 

Right/Centre Right

Conservative 316 (if they don't hold Kensington and Chelsea)

DUP 10

Government 326 + Sylvia Hermon = 327

 

Left/Centre-Left 

Labour 259

SNP 35

Lib Dem 12

Plaid Cymru 4

Green 1

Total: 311

 

That's a hell of a lot better than it could have been for Theresa May. It also means she'll be able to win some votes without the support of the DUP'; crucially. Can imagine the whips will be working overtime this parliament, may we see the return of politicians being taken to the house of commons on stretchers as in the 1974-79 parliament?

Will be a good way of keeping eyes on MPs to pick in future pools.Especially with all the cameras being around now.

[Sean 5,997]

Corbyn saying he could be PM within days.Delusional.No way he can get a coalition together.