That Portillo Moment

[msc 18,477]

Just now, Kinnock said:

 

If she wasn't such a dreadful interviewee then maybe. Have a watch of this.....

 

 

First section is her interview (the dreadful bit circulating all over the internet is 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0009v71/the-andrew-neil-show-series-1-30102019

 

5:50 onwards to 10:00 where she claims she could become Prime Minister (as her dreadful leaflets) are and then goes on to show her economic ignorance.

 

Thankfully for her nobody watches the Andrew Neil show but if she's included in TV debates she's fucked (which she's pleading for)......

 

Oh I saw it at the time! Mrs msc called it "parliament's weekly sacrifice to Neil"...

[Toast 16,140]

2 hours ago, msc said:

Really? I think shes going to split the Remain vote and let the Tories in a fair few places.

 

 

What would you call the Remain vote?

[msc 18,477]

24 minutes ago, Toast said:

 

What would you call the Remain vote?

 

I mean the Lib Dems (campaigning on a Revoke Brexit position) and Labour (campaigning on a 2nd Referendum with Remain as an option and most of the Shadow Cabinet supporting staying) specifically in the marginals I was referring to. But the Greens and other smaller parties are running on anti-Brexit platforms too.

[Deathray 2,940]

Boris Johnson gets up in parliament on Wednesday and says the NHS is not for sale and the US is not going to be getting it's grubby hands on it.

 

Trump rings Nigel Farage on LBC the day after to advocate privatising healthcare in the UK and criticise Boris trade deal while telling people Corbyn is a danger to the country and they should vote Johnson....

[YoungWillz 21,050]

Antoinette Sandbach - signs her electoral death warrant? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50257912

[YoungWillz 21,050]

Anyone think Keith Vaz will actually run for re-election?

[Deathray 2,940]

35 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

Anyone think Keith Vaz will actually run for re-election?

 

He's currently reselected as a Labour Party candidate by default with trigger ballots suspended so yes.

 

Although he could be deselected at NEC this week, we'll see.

 

If he's left in place that could be a BXP / Tory gain.

[Cat O'Falk 3,290]

9 hours ago, Kinnock said:

If he's left in place that could be a BXP / Tory gain.

 

 

[Deathray 2,940]

6 hours ago, Cat O'Falk said:

 

 

 

Look, I appreciate it's a Labour safe seat but I really don't think people understand how volatile this election is actually going to be, or are going to appreciate that until the results come through. We're looking at Lib Dems, BXP and Tories winning lots of seats on 25-30% of the vote.

[Deathray 2,940]

@Cat O'Falk

 

Emphasis on my point.

 

https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/politics/exclusive-ex-tory-chair-in-key-yorkshire-marginal-endorses-labour-in-tactical-election-vote-to-halt-brexit-1-10082967

[msc 18,477]

1 hour ago, Kinnock said:

 

Look, I appreciate it's a Labour safe seat but I really don't think people understand how volatile this election is actually going to be, or are going to appreciate that until the results come through. We're looking at Lib Dems, BXP and Tories winning lots of seats on 25-30% of the vote.

 

There's also the possibility of some right odd gains for Tories, Labour and Lib Dems in parts of the country due to them coming through the middle when the other 2 eat each others votes. I also can't recall an election with so many direct 3 way constituency fights (Finchley, Kensington, Lanark, Ynys Mon to pick but 4...).

[Deathray 2,940]

46 minutes ago, msc said:

 

There's also the possibility of some right odd gains for Tories, Labour and Lib Dems in parts of the country due to them coming through the middle when the other 2 eat each others votes. I also can't recall an election with so many direct 3 way constituency fights (Finchley, Kensington, Lanark, Ynys Mon to pick but 4...).

 

Yup the whole things going to be an absolute mess. And will hopefully be the end of FPTP.

[Cat O'Falk 3,290]

4 hours ago, Kinnock said:

 

Look, I appreciate it's a Labour safe seat but I really don't think people understand how volatile this election is actually going to be, or are going to appreciate that until the results come through. We're looking at Lib Dems, BXP and Tories winning lots of seats on 25-30% of the vote.

 

Labour could put a member of the KKK up for the election and still take the seat. The council is made up of 54 councillors (53 Labour and one Liberal Democrat) across 21 wards. The poshest part of Leicester is Stoneygate (Gary Lineker lived there whilst he played for Leicester) and they returned three Labour Councillors at the last election whilst kicking out the incumbent ceremonial mayor who was the only Tory on the council.

 

I remember when Vaz's story broke, BBC East Midlands Today went looking for vox pops amongst the public and were hard pushed to find anyone willing to criticise him.

 

[Deathray 2,940]

5 minutes ago, Cat O'Falk said:

 

Labour could put a member of the KKK up for the election and still take the seat. The council is made up of 54 councillors (53 Labour and one Liberal Democrat) across 21 wards. The poshest part of Leicester is Stoneygate (Gary Lineker lived there whilst he played for Leicester) and they returned three Labour Councillors at the last election whilst kicking out the incumbent ceremonial mayor who was the only Tory on the council.

  

I remember when Vaz's story broke, BBC East Midlands Today went looking for vox pops amongst the public and were hard pushed to find anyone willing to criticise him.

  

 

In a normal election yes. This is not a normal election.

[Spade_Cooley 9,529]

Tom Watson's an obvious one, but from the other end of the Labour party my money's on Corbynite darling Laura Pidcock. Had a majority of 8,792 in 2017, but North West Durham was 55.5% leave at the Brexit referendum. There was also a 3% swing from LAB to CON at the last election, and she's not exactly the person to stop centrists from switching Labour to Lib Dem...

[Sean 6,329]

Issue with predicting the Portillo moment is that it requires both household name value and a significant swing.The biggest names in danger of a swing on Tory sides are Iain Duncan Smith and BoJo himself.Particularly the latter would make the Portillo Moment look like a ripple in the political earthquake.

 

Labour I think could lose big names if a Brexit backlash is reflected in the polls.That leaves northern seats in danger meaning we could see people like Yvette Cooper Ed Miliband Tom Watson Rebecca Long Bailey Laura Pidcock and even the best of Bolsover himself in danger.

 

SNP seem fairly safe but most seats were held by different parties prior to 2015.

 

Welsh Labour I think could suffer due to Brexit.

 

If the SNP get Jo Swindon's seat then that would be a massive defeat.

 

Some MPs are likely to lose their seats such as Frank Field all Change UK MPs and the independent former Tories and lib dem defectors from the Tories and Labour.

 

 

[Toast 16,140]

38 minutes ago, Sean said:

Some MPs are likely to lose their seats such as Frank Field all Change UK MPs and the independent former Tories and lib dem defectors from the Tories and Labour.

 

My MP has avoided any such embarrassment by not seeking re-election.  He was straight back up Boris's arse after his little protest, mind.

[Sean 6,329]

53 minutes ago, Toast said:

 

My MP has avoided any such embarrassment by not seeking re-election.  He was straight back up Boris's arse after his little protest, mind.

Who is your MP?

[Toast 16,140]

6 minutes ago, Sean said:

Who is your MP?

 

As I have made a somewhat libellous comment, I'd better not say openly.

You may PM me your guesses if you wish  

[TQR 14,398]

My MP is S*****n M*****fe. Tory Brexiteer with a horrendous voting record. Pretty quiet normally, most probably because he's invariably got one of Boris Johnson's testicles in his gob. Absolute anal fissure of a man.

 

Go on M*****fe, sue me for libel you cunt!

 

 

 

EDIT: My legal advisor calmed me down and edited this for me.

[msc 18,477]

54 minutes ago, Toast said:

 

As I have made a somewhat libellous comment, I'd better not say openly.

You may PM me your guesses if you wish  

 

I'm pretty sure I know who it is, but wont name them on request.

[Toast 16,140]

1 hour ago, msc said:

 

I'm pretty sure I know who it is, but wont name them on request.

 

Probably not difficult to work it out

[Cat O'Falk 3,290]

He'll carry on behind.

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

Looks like Boris will side step a Portillo moment and parachute into Alan Duncan's Melton Mowbray constituency.  Which provides a delicious cockney rhyming slang irony as Melton is the home of pork pies.

[Joey Russ 7,228]

On 03/11/2019 at 07:55, YoungWillz said:

Anyone think Keith Vaz will actually run for re-election?

Good question. Nope