msc 18,479 Posted May 22 1 minute ago, YoungWillz said: Bump again. Just in case. Of course, many MPs are standing down so this might not be the fun it has been previously. One thing I can guarantee...there will be Portillo moments in the second half of this year. These Tories losing seats will always be fun. Ask me again when we know who is running. Hoping we finally see the end of IDS. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
maryportfuncity 10,657 Posted May 22 The crash and burn of George Galloway may cause some amusement since he's hardly been seen in Rochdale since winning about ten minutes ago 5 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Old Crem 3,608 Posted May 22 Jeremy Hunt will be the big one if he is chancellor at the Election. Alex Chalk looks rather doomed in his current seat. Grant Shapps, Penny Mourdant, Mel Stride, Johnny Mercer Michael Tomlinson and Mark Harper could also be ferrying levels of danger if things get really bad for the Tories. Iain Duncan Smith and Jacob Rees Mogg outside the cabinet. Plus some controversial figures like Andrea Jenkyns and Phillip Davies. Could be the odd labour loss as well in areas where Gaza causes votes lose - Tower Hamlets and Newham in London and Batley and Drewsbury (No Labour incumbent there - Kim Leadbeater is taking Spen Valley’ Lib Dems are targeting Michael Gove as well. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sly Ronnie 886 Posted May 22 I'll throw this one in as an outside bet - Liz Truss. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Old Crem 3,608 Posted May 22 On 06/12/2019 at 20:50, Deathray said: Seen as this thread appears to have become the psephology geekery thread: There's a number of constituency that have consistently backed the winner (most seats) at previous elections going back to at least 1997. Essentially if Boris starts losing these (especially if Watford goes red) - (all Tory held, naturally) he might want start panicking like mad on December 12th. They are: 1955 Watford (on 2nd check this went Lab in 1970.) 1964 Dartford Feb 1974 Loughborough Northampton North Portsmouth North 1979 Burton Dover Gloucester Harrow East Morecambe and Lunesdale Pudsey Worcester 1983 Amber Valley Calder Valley Crawley Derbyshire South Erewash Great Yarmouth Harlow Hastings and Rye Leicestershire North West Norwich North Reading West Ribble South Rossendale and Darwen Sherwood Staffordshire Moorlands Stevenage Thanet South Vale of Glamorgan 1997 Brigg and Goole Cannock Chase Carlisle Camarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Chatham and Aylesford Cleethorpes Dudley South Finchley and Golders Green Halesowen and Rowley Regis Hendon Kingswood Nuneaton Pendle Redditch Sittingbourne and Sheppey Staffod Constituency Stourbridge Swindon North Swindon South Tamworth Thurrock Warwickshire North Be interesting to see how many of these (or their successor seats) go Labour at the election. I tehre is a couple there I think the Tories will keep even on 150 seats. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DCI Frank Burnside 3,887 Posted May 22 Champagne is on ice for Rees Mogg Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Commtech Sio Bibble 2,055 Posted May 22 According to these polls there's a 1 in 3 chance of Labour winning in South West Norfolk and getting rid of Truss, a bit of tactical voting and she could quite easily be done. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TQR 14,403 Posted May 22 Election Night 2024 Drinking Game Take a shot when any of these lose their seat: Hunt Rees-Mogg Mordaunt Shapps Gove IDS Mercer Chalk Donelan Dowden Gullis Anderson Galloway Sunak - chug the rest of the bottle Truss - scran a whole iceberg 5 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Toast 16,154 Posted May 22 17 minutes ago, TQR said: Election Night 2024 Drinking Game Take a shot when any of these lose their seat: Hunt Rees-Mogg Mordaunt Shapps Gove IDS Mercer Chalk Donelan Dowden Gullis Anderson Galloway Sunak - chug the rest of the bottle Truss - scran a whole iceberg Can we add that cunt Kruger? 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Old Crem 3,608 Posted May 22 Hunt has confirmed on X/Twitter he is standing again and has stated his seat is highly marginal. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Old Crem 3,608 Posted May 22 57 minutes ago, Toast said: Can we add that cunt Kruger? Sadly he is probably the safest of the lot. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
maryportfuncity 10,657 Posted May 22 1 hour ago, Commtech Sio Bibble said: According to these polls there's a 1 in 3 chance of Labour winning in South West Norfolk and getting rid of Truss, a bit of tactical voting and she could quite easily be done. Aye, I posted about that a while back - the curveball being the local independent who's made it clear he's basically a Tory, then started banging on about local issues full in the knowledge that Truss has pissed people off promoting her book and clearing off abroad since being PM. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RoverAndOut 4,746 Posted May 22 3 hours ago, Sly Ronnie said: I'll throw this one in as an outside bet - Liz Truss. 2 hours ago, Commtech Sio Bibble said: According to these polls there's a 1 in 3 chance of Labour winning in South West Norfolk and getting rid of Truss, a bit of tactical voting and she could quite easily be done. I know some of these cabinet ministers have big majorities and overturning them would be surprising, but if Truss went that would be *the* Portillo moment of the 2024 election. I can't even begin to hope. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sly Ronnie 886 Posted May 22 Steve Baker. MP for Wycombe. Notional majority 1, 494. Hasn't been a Labour seat since 1950. That would be: 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sod's Law 452 Posted May 22 4 hours ago, The Old Crem said: Hunt has confirmed on X/Twitter he is standing again and has stated his seat is highly marginal. The Arnold Rimmer of politics. I'd love to see that perma-smirk wiped off his face. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Old Crem 3,608 Posted May 22 11 minutes ago, Sly Ronnie said: Steve Baker. MP for Wycombe. Notional majority 1, 494. Hasn't been a Labour seat since 1950. That would be: He looks doomed - only possible reason he could surprise is major Tory recovery or labour losing lots of voters from the Muslim community in the seat over Gaza. Former Wolves MP Emma Reynolds is standing there for Labour and she is close to the leadership so will gets lots of resources. She could be straight into a ministerial role post election. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TQR 14,403 Posted May 22 17 minutes ago, Sly Ronnie said: Steve Baker. MP for Wycombe. Notional majority 1, 494. Hasn't been a Labour seat since 1950. That would be: BrexitHardManSteve Baker is too hard to do any campaigning. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sly Ronnie 886 Posted May 22 On Newsnight he was talking about doing skydiving or something after July 4th. He knows he's buggered. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DCI Frank Burnside 3,887 Posted May 22 Hunt will be the Portillo moment if we're talking strictly about current Cabinet members. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TQR 14,403 Posted May 22 16 minutes ago, Sly Ronnie said: On Newsnight he was talking about doing skydiving or something after July 4th. He knows he's buggered. Is he bothering with the parachute or nah? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TQR 14,403 Posted May 22 6 minutes ago, DCI Frank Burnside said: Hunt will be the Portillo moment if we're talking strictly about current Cabinet members. "Were you up for Cunt-Hunt?" has a certain ring to it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Philheybrookbay1 247 Posted May 23 Well I'm booking leave for 5th July today. Locally losing Johnny Mercer will be brilliant - but Sheryl Murray in SE Cornwall is equally disliked. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sly Ronnie 886 Posted May 23 7 hours ago, The Old Crem said: He looks doomed - only possible reason he could surprise is major Tory recovery or labour losing lots of voters from the Muslim community in the seat over Gaza. Former Wolves MP Emma Reynolds is standing there for Labour and she is close to the leadership so will gets lots of resources. She could be straight into a ministerial role post election. What's fascinating from a psephological angle is the change in demographics that have made it possible that Labour will win it and win it easily. The seat didn't even fall to Labour in the landslide of 1997, it was that true blue and Labour have frequently been in 3rd place (as recently as 2010). Yet there has been a gradual shift towards Labour in the last 14 years and the boundary changes have not helped matters for Baker. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
maryportfuncity 10,657 Posted May 23 8 hours ago, TQR said: BrexitHardManSteve Baker is too hard to do any campaigning. If you've listened to that Helen Lewis has Left the Chat podcast series Baker clearly bossed the Whatsapp operation that worked so effectively to steer the direction of Brexit and helped depose May as PM. So, he has some savvy, but this looks more like making out he doesn't care when he probably does. Quite a few middle ground Tories would take some pleasure in his ousting, though a load of those will probably by more concerned about their next job because they'll be finding themselves dumped as well! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
