Derby Dead Pool 2017

[Death Impends 7,977]

If an obit doesn't come that's my victory chances in the toilet pretty much, although I could still quite realistically achieve a podium place. So a make-or-break moment for the TJS campaign.

[YoungWillz 21,050]

On ‎6‎/‎1‎/‎2017 at 11:04, YoungWillz said:

Round Up #14 (You're The One That The Reaper Wants, Hoo Hoo Hoo Special)

 

Eva Estrada-Kalaw: https://forums.deathlist.net/topic/7873-foreign-personalities-from-stage-screen-politics-and-life/?do=findComment&comment=308674 (Carried Over)

Awaiting Obit.

 

Sonny West: https://forums.deathlist.net/topic/1828-elvis-presley/?do=findComment&comment=309567 (Carried Over) Awaiting Obit.

 

Roy Barraclough: https://forums.deathlist.net/topic/2531-betty-driver-memorial-soapstar-superstar-thread/?do=findComment&comment=309833

Mirror Obit: http://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/coronation-street-roy-barraclough-dead-10540120

 

Roberto De Vicenzo: https://forums.deathlist.net/topic/5754-golf-the-19th-hole/?do=findComment&comment=309882

Sky Sports Obit: http://www.skysports.com/golf/the-open/news/14866/10901382/roberto-de-vicenzo-open-champion-in-1967-has-passed-away-at-94

 

Peter Sallis: https://forums.deathlist.net/topic/2780-5-peter-sallis/?do=findComment&comment=310549

BBC Obit: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-40165443

 

Julia Perez: https://forums.deathlist.net/topic/9034-the-dead-of-2017/?do=findComment&comment=311421

Mirror Obit: http://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/indonesian-actress-julia-perez-36-10603780

Adam West: https://forums.deathlist.net/topic/1038-adam-west-batman/?do=findComment&comment=311457

Mirror Obit: http://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/adam-west-dead-at-88-10599177

 

Errol Christie: https://forums.deathlist.net/topic/9035-49-errol-christie/?do=findComment&comment=311653

Sun Obit: https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/3777379/boxing-errol-christie-dies/

 

Helen Fawkes: https://forums.deathlist.net/topic/7817-journalists/?do=findComment&comment=311788

Awaiting Obit.

 

[Youth in Asia 1,087]

Well Perez has got an obit from the Daily Mirror - I'm pretty surprised by that but anyway, well done to those that chose her

[Joey Russ 7,228]

1 minute ago, Youth in Asia said:

Well Perez has got an obit from the Daily Mirror - I'm pretty surprised by that but anyway, well done to those that chose her

It was her social media presence that got her an obit in the end. Ah, at least she was an actual celebrity, unlike the shameless fodder that receives a mirror obit...

[Spade_Cooley 9,528]

Can the Mirror staffer that lurks here just give us a clue in his next article? Maybe caption a picture "roey juss" or something.

[msc 18,476]

^ Or could they do an obit for Sasha Lakovic, please.

[gcreptile 10,972]

I really would love an article on Shameless picks Natalie Daniells and Alan Aspin. Those picks might seal it.

 

Edit: I was really disappointed when Daniells didn't obit!

[RadGuy 1,614]

While we're at it, please write an obituary for Rena Salmon even though she's still alive.

[RadGuy 1,614]

34 points for DeathImpends in one weekend.

[gcreptile 10,972]

5 minutes ago, RadGuy said:

34 points for DeathImpends in one weekend.

Yeah, very likely scorer of the month. If only Ray Pfeifer had died in June, my B-Team could have been a competition, as Smith Hart and Paul Van Zandvliet will surely follow.

[Death Impends 7,977]

19 minutes ago, RadGuy said:

34 points for DeathImpends in one weekend.

 

A good clawback after a few arid months... the likes of Elias and Van Zan could well keep June blazing.

[msc 18,476]

It's never over till it's over, this marathon!

 

And if Al-Baghdadi gets confirmed, then I'll be the only of last year's top 5 still awaiting a Joker hit!

[Joey Russ 7,228]

Well, let's look at the top four after Christie's death, shall we? 

Golden Slumbers is still in the lead with a total of 120 points. 

David Quantick Showbiz Pals is in 2nd with 113 points in total. 

Then a new person hits the podium for the first time this year (or at least for a long while, as he might've been a podium placer when Barrett unique died until John Wetton died or all the Sims jokers were played), as the Perez Christie joker one-two puts Thomas Jefferson Survives at 107 points. 

Finally in fourth place, we have To Kill A Gabor Sister with a total of 105 points at the moment. All four of them are ahead of Shameless, who is still at 101 points due to the nature of their team (they obviously couldn't make an exception for Christie). 

Well, let's look at two potential deaths that seem to be coming sometime soon, Paul Van Zandvliet and Rayya Elias. If Zandvliet dies first, then it will be Golden Slumbers at 129 points with Death Impends at second with 116 points. If Rayya Elias dies first, it'll be David Quantick Showbiz Pals first at 122 points, Golden Slumbers second at 120 points, and Thomas Jefferson Survives third at 116 points. They all would be in touching range of each other.

If however, both Elias and Zandvliet dies, then the scoreboard will look like this: 

Golden Slumbers: 129

Thomas Jefferson Survives: 125 

David Quantick Showbiz Pals: 122

RadGuy's best hope to catch up to them (and win) is for Loughlin to die, and Byrne to have a worse cancer than expected, as well as Spiridinov to die and obit and Salmon to be legit and Nevin to be fraud (as she doesn't affect the position of the top 3 at all). Loughlin and two others basically for RadGuy to have a fighting chance.

I think the biggest game changer, however, will lie in 2 particular picks: Simon Ricketts and Stefan Karl Stefansson (Greg Gilbert is also an important candidate as well, but not necessarily as crucial imo). Any of the four of them can win if the combination falls into the following ways:

Bert can win if either none of those picks die or Simon Ricketts dies, but not Stefan Karl Stefansson or Greg Gilbert. He also has Bruce Forsyth, which looks like a 50/50 gamble, and Patrick Cryne, but while he is terminal, we don't know how long he's been ill for. Oh, Meads needs to survive as well.

Spade can win if either Gilbert or Stefansson dies, and Forsyth, Cryne, and Booth doesn't die, or if none of them die, but the Jagraj Singh gamble works (and he doesn't have the advantage of social media presence unlike Julia Perez, so that's something to note). 

RadGuy: Can win if neither of Nevin or Meads dies as well as getting all of Stefansson, Gilbert, and Ricketts, or having Nevin and Meads die, but get Loughlin and someone else of the other three I've mentioned. 

Death Impends needs all of Meads, Ricketts, and Stefansson to die to beat Bert, but Booth also needs to die to beat RadGuy if scenario #2 happens, minus potentially Greg Gilbert. 

I know these are the top 4 right now, but I must also note of gcreptile's team. It certainly looks a dark horse in this competition, and could be the Spade 2013 type sneak up I mentioned in the Rolling Probability thread (though he put's his team up there, his team is pretty low at the moment in comparison to the other contenders). 

I'm going to make a bold prediction and say the current top 4 plus The Love Boat will be the top 5 in the end. Sorry if this review sounded kind of complex, but there are so many possibilities for a win with so few who could actually win it at this point imo.

[maryportfuncity 10,646]

 

Picked a load of bankers this year in the hope of a respectable finish and Christie brings my surviving cohort down to a dozen and keeps me in touch with a top 20 finish. Still kicking myself over the wasted choice of Pauline Cafferkey and marvelling at Anne Hamilton-Byrne's hold on life; but it's not a bad year so far.

[gcreptile 10,972]

Thanks for the confidence Joey. I'd be pleased with a Top 5-finish after reaching 8th place last year.

 

Considering Nevin, Campbell, Johnson, Casper and Kobayashi could all be dead by tomorrow it's not even as far-fetched as the current scoreboard would tell.

[Joey Russ 7,228]

2 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

Thanks for the confidence Joey. I'd be pleased with a Top 5-finish after reaching 8th place last year.

 

Considering Nevin, Campbell, Johnson, Casper and Kobayashi could all be dead by tomorrow it's not even as far-fetched as the current scoreboard would tell.

I think the biggest issue is Kobayashi (which is why I didn't predict Still Life as a prediction in the top 5), but then again, I don't think anyone will get 20/20 this year anyways, as Spade and DI have Charles Bradley, Golden Slumbers has Golmard, and RadGuy has some, er, bad picks. Johnson and Elias are definite goners, and you still have the benefit of not using your joker yet unlike the other four, and I think she will die. What I really like are the DJ Casper, Hvortosky, and Berkowitz punts, and if they are sucessful, it'll definitely boost your score, and I do think Glen Campbell will die this year, which will help you. If they are successful, then the Gilbert/Ricketts/Stefansson trifecta will be the major players left on your team. Oh, Gord Downie is useless to all of you by the way, so it doesn't matter if he survives the year or not. 

[Death Impends 7,977]

At the beginning of the year, I felt that the fates of Barrett, Perez, and Joost would be key to how well I do this year. The success of all three means it'll be very difficult to fall out of the top five. I now feel that the most important name for my chances going forward is Tony Booth, my only name left picked by neither Spade or Bert and one who could go tomorrow or linger on into next year.

[msc 18,476]

I wont win this years game, but I feel there's about 70-90 points left on the table (some 50/50 2017/2018) for the team which would see an 140-150 point finish and, hopefully, a top ten finish.

[Joey Russ 7,228]

I think I could get a top ten finish actually, if Al Baghdadi and Loughlin both die, and the Ian Brady punt was successful, but I definitely won't win, since jokering a FFBI was a bad idea. 

[RadGuy 1,614]

3 hours ago, Joey Russ said:

RadGuy has some, er, bad picks. 

To say the least!  

About 5 of them. Hallenga and Loughlin are bad. Byrne, Salmon, and Spiridonov are really bad.

But of course, you never know. At one point, Snuka and Hankins seemed like bad picks too!

 

My team is at 105 points. I can expect to get Downie, Bracknell, and King Michael. That puts me at 137. I could get about three of Gilbert/Hallenga/Loughlin/Ricketts/Stefansson, which puts me at 167-170 points.

 

Bert is at 120 points. He'll get Bracknell, Cryne, Downie, King Michael, Nevin, and Van-Zan is 177. Then, one of Forsyth/Ricketts, and he's at 186-187 points. 

 

DQSP is at 113 points. Bracknell, Downie, Elias, and Nevin will be 154. He'll get half of Bradley/Brokenshire/Gilbert/Meads/Singh/Stefansson. That makes it 179-187 points.

 

TJS is at 107 points. Bracknell, Downie, Elias, King Michael, Nevin, and Van-Zan make it 166. Getting two or three of Booth/Bradley/Meads/Ricketts/Stefansson puts him between 183-197 points.

 

So, basically, I have no shot of making the podium. Unless something really unrealistic happens, like Nevin turns out to be a fraud, and Salmon turns out not to be a fraud. I could also use some extreme luck, like a party pooper or unnatural death bonus or something of the sort.

 

So the best I can get is 4th place. I did take a look at some of the other teams, but was too lazy to continue tallying stuff like that. I could say that Droller Coaster has a decent chance of making the top 5. The Living End will be in the top 5 very likely if al-Baghdadi dies and at least two of his uniques obit. If Kobayashi obits, Still Life could be up there too.

 

Two teams that seem to have been counted out by a lot of folks are Pan Breed and The Love Boat. Pan Breed has three List-of-the-Losters, but still a lot of points potential. 24-point joker Gord Downie is still breathing but probably won't be by the end of the year, they also have al-Baghdadi, Bracknell, Elias, Nevin, Van-Zan. The Love Boat is way down below, out of the top 50 currently, but will start rising soon. Bracknell as a joker, as well as Campbell, Downie, Elias, and Nevin? Plus rare-but-good picks like Hvorostovsky, Johnson, Kobayashi, and Laws? Definitely a ton of potential for this team. 

[Joey Russ 7,228]

About some of the picks you mentioned:

Catherine Nevin: may be a fraud. She had a week to live like, 3 months ago I think. And she's still living as far as I can tell.

Patrick Cryne: There's no doubt that he's terminally ill, but the bigger thing is that he never said what his life expectancy was. It could potentially reach past the one year mark. 

The same thing is can be said about Laurie Brokenshire as well. 

Now Bradley is a bad pick, cause he's on a tour last time I checked, but it's not impossible. I will get to a team analysis on why others aren't likely to make the top 5 (it's not impossible, but it's certainly more likely than not). 

[themaninblack 2,112]

Latest update (with some breaking news)...

[RadGuy 1,614]

Congrats to Spade! 

 

And congrats to the rest of us - we'll finally get a chance to win starting 2018.

[msc 18,476]

Wow, good luck, Spade!

 

And well done, TMIB. It really can't be said enough how much you've been The Fucking Boss (TM) for the past eight years.

 

 

[Joey Russ 7,228]

I think he wants to give everyone else a chance to win in the future. That's very kind of him hosting actually.