Derby Dead Pool 2017

[drol 11,923]

Nevin and Magill will die between today and tomorrow, I reckon. Magill is very likely to obit, it makes me wonder that both Aspin and Clark were List of the Lost entries.

[msc 18,437]

There's also more DDP teams though! We're really talking about 7% of hits in 2016, and...somewhere around 0.8% of all picks that year.

[Joey Russ 7,220]

1 hour ago, Toast said:

There just seem to be more of them now.

They don't seem to be picking up obits, do they? Cause so far, only 3 FFBI's have obited, Briggs, Sims, and Lyson. And McGiffin, though she's more fringes of fame then FFBI.

[msc 18,437]

In other news, my pick Colin Butts (writer) appears to be crowdfunding for the old fashioned "cure Stage IV metastatic pancreatic cancer in one fell swoop" surgery everyone wants these days.

[gcreptile 10,964]

Shameless will have a hard time defending its title this year, I think.

[Joey Russ 7,220]

5 hours ago, gcreptile said:

Shameless will have a hard time defending its title this year, I think.

Well, Clark getting an obit after all will certainly help you...

[drol 11,923]

Oh, I thought he had ran out of time...

[RadGuy 1,614]

So I took a good look at over two dozen contenders, and here are some interesting and (probably bullshit) predictions.

 

The podium will be Golden Slumbers at 179, Pan Breed at 169, and David Quantick's Showbiz Pals at 165.

 

Pan Breed will make it to 2nd place without obits for Aspin and Suisala! 

 

Droller Coaster makes it to joint 4th (tied with Thomas Jefferson Survives) which is a great debut. 

 

My very own To Kill A Gabor Sister makes it to a satisfying 7th.

 

The Living End and Day In The Death will have trouble making the top 10. Not too bad for the latter as they likely won't get an obit for their joker.

 

I'm Sorry For Your Trouble will too be around 10th, but this is still an accomplishment for them as they don't pick famous-for-being-ill types.

[msc 18,437]

DDT will get top 10 easily - likely top 5. His punts tend to come good.

 

As for 2nd... well, I was trying to work out who isn't a hit in that projection (Aspin/Suisala/Butts/Holmlund/Karl or Al-Baghdadi, I guess).

 

I still think TJS will win.

[Death Impends 7,957]

Aye, I recall DDT saying he's gotten at least one unique hit for I think... 8 years in a row now? Those stats probably will ensure at least one of his three this year will land.

 

I'm not gonna predict the specific order but I think Spade, Bert, and I are going to be the top trio this year. Def gonna need my Jakarta departa obit gamble to succeed if I'm to have a chance at the gold though.

[Joey Russ 7,220]

I thought Clark wasn't going to obit. And then... he did. I'm not eliminating Suisala yet, and probably won't unless it's a week after his announced death. 

[msc 18,437]

11 hours ago, Death Impends said:

Aye, I recall DDT saying he's gotten at least one unique hit for I think... 8 years in a row now? Those stats probably will ensure at least one of his three this year will land.

 

I'm not gonna predict the specific order but I think Spade, Bert, and I are going to be the top trio this year. Def gonna need my Jakarta departa obit gamble to succeed if I'm to have a chance at the gold though.

 

Hmm

 

Floor is lowest likely points, not highest...

 

1. Thomas Jefferson Survives 73 points on board/214 possible/175 likely floor* (not counting Perez, Bradley, Booth, Karl)

2. Golden Slumbers 98 points/207** possible/179 likely floor (Golmard, Cryne, Forsyth)

3. Davey Quantick's Showbiz Pals  73/212 possible/181 likely floor (Bradley, Singh, Karl)

4. To Kill a Gabor Sister 70/218 possible/157 likely floor (Bryne, Hallenga, Hankins, Loughlin, Salmen, Karl)***

5. The Living End 65/222 possible/153 likely floor (Al-Baghdadi, James C, Lambert, Mutrie, Pollard)

6. A Day in the Death 64/221 possible/117 likely floor (Al-Baghdadi, Aspin, Booth, Brady, Campbell, Davies, Loughlin, Karl, Suisala)

7. Pan Breed 50/222 possible/144 likely floor (Al-Baghdadi, Aspin, Butts, Holmlund, Lakovic, Karl, Suisala)

8. Love Boat 42/221 possible/140 likely floor (Berkowitz, Campbell, Casper, Hvorostovsky, Johnson, Kobayashi, Laws, Karl)
*Floor is what looks to me to be the low estimate points tally, based on picks left.
**Guess on the age of Patrick Cryne
*** Lots of big 10 point 50/50ers (obit or death) which makes Rad a high risk/high reward team

 

I couldnt be bothered checking any others, as I have my top 3 there. TJS is my favourite because I suspect Perez will die and obit, whereas I have the suspicion Mr Singh (J) will be on about a dozen teams in 2018... That's what the numbers tell me anyhow.

[Spade_Cooley 9,515]

Patrick Cryne is in his mid-60s iirc from my research last year.

[drol 11,923]

1) TJS: Booth and Michael die, Perez dies and obits/ Likely to be bad picks: Stefan Karl and Charles Bradley

2)Golden Slumbers: Forsyth, Cryne, Ricketts die/ Bad picks: Golmard and Cryne (maybe)

3)DQSP: Gilbert dies, Singh dies and obits/ Bad picks: Stefan Karl and Bradley (maybe)

4)To Kill a Gabor Sister: Byrne dies, Hallenga, Hankins, Loughlin, Salmon die and obit/ Bad picks: Byrne, but you know, every terminally ill could be bad or good. Hallenga is probably bad.

5)Poochie: Jones, Langhorne die/ Bad picks: Langhorne and Bain

6)Day in the Death: Al Baghdadi, Brady die Suisala (that's fundamental) dies and obits/Bad Picks: Davies, Karl

7)Pan Breed: Butts dies, Lakovic dies and obits/Bad picks: Holmlund (could be a surprise, anyway), Karl.

8)The Living End: Al Baghdadi dies/ All uniques are very risky, could be remunerative or destructive

9)Still Life: Booth, Fujimori, Kobayashi die/ Bad picks: Clive James

10)Droller Coaster: Boles, Campbell, Sallis die/Bad picks: Hamilton and Darc

[Joey Russ 7,220]

Didn't choose Bradley 

[drol 11,923]

1 minute ago, joeyruss said:

Didn't choose Bradley 

That's why it's a bad pick.

[Spade_Cooley 9,515]

Bradley is currently a bad pick but he could easily Ray Price/Bonnie Brown his way back to the treatment room. I thought that for me to win this year I need two of Singh, Clark and Brokenshire to die and obit... I still stand by that belief. Although Brokenshire was apparently swimming in Scotland last weekend, so I don't think we need to prep his eulogy just yet.

[msc 18,437]

10 minutes ago, Spade_Cooley said:

Bradley is currently a bad pick but he could easily Ray Price/Bonnie Brown his way back to the treatment room. I thought that for me to win this year I need two of Singh, Clark and Brokenshire to die and obit... I still stand by that belief. Although Brokenshire was apparently swimming in Scotland last weekend, so I don't think we need to prep his eulogy just yet.

That's much my view on Holmlund. Currently a bad pick, but so was Bianchi around this time 2 years ago, and the news stories are somewhat similar. Clark was the only one of those 3 I had any doubts about the QO - Singh (via brother) and Brokenshire will walk them.

 

Of course, Golmard is as much an issue, and then...if Stefan Karl goes this side of Hogmanay...

 

So which win was more satisfying then? The last minute December 4 hits in 2013, the relative coasting of 2014, the smash and grab in 2015, or the "everyone else improves ten fold and you still win" of 2016?

[Spade_Cooley 9,515]

Ah, one day I'll write a bit more in-depth about them on here (funeral director's commentary, if you will). But let me see....

 

2013 was an amazing one, especially as I'd given up the ghost early on thanks to my scepticism over Chavez. But the slow clawing back, Millwall and Andreotti being two quintessentially DQSP picks and dying within 24 hours, the Bruno Metsu punt paying off and then the endless wait for Ray Price which was made all the more intense thanks to the two fake announcements of his death. And then the alley-oop with Klashnikov to round things up.

 

2014 was a workmanlike win, but it turned into a proper streetfight with Drunkasaskunk towards the end as we effectively traded some big blows with uniques and low-pick hits around October/November. Only three years ago but it's impossible to imagine a Marlise Munoz or a Yosra El-Essawy being a unique hit these days. Was proud of spotting Chen Ziming based off one solitary tweet about his cancer being pretty bad though.

 

2015 was a robbery, there's no doubt about it. But those are the rules so....

 

2016 was absolute carnage but perhaps the one I was most confident about as the year ticked on, and was also the earliest a decisive hit wrapped things up for me. Abdul Sattar Edhi and Mother Angelica both playing in to my maxim that the elderly are underrated as DDP picks if you're guaranteed them going and obitting.

 

So yeah, I'd take 2013 just for 1) it being my first 2) how unexpected it was considering the opening month 3) beating an old-school icon like OoO for it and 4) how crazy that final fortnight of Ray Price's life was.

[msc 18,437]

My memory completely cheats about Metsu, because I figured if I picked him back in 2013 he must have been fairly obvious, yet sod all anyone else did. Yosra is sort of the Rayya Elias style "on half a dozen of the top teams" pick nowadays: in fact, might be one of the causes of that, given how easily she was findable had anyone looked at the time on Google!

 

Interesting though! I think DDT said his first was his favourite too, though I might have entirely just made that up tbh. Can't mind.

[Joey Russ 7,220]

I may as well concede now. Magill, Nevin, Hewlett and Clark will all see me fall behind in the pack. I'm regretting thinking Magill would not obit when it's really Aspin and probably Suisala who won't obit. Elias, Briggs, and Nevin avoiding my search terms will see me fall behind as well. Also kind of mad at Spade for spoiling Simon Ricketts, not saying he would've been unique, but some people wouldn't have selected him if it wasn't for Spade. And Julia Perez, who I did know about her illness before TJS revealed his line up (check deathrace if you don't believe me), I still have that feeling not choosing her will bite me back.

 

What could've been...

[msc 18,437]

Spade came back from circa 50 points down in 2013, it's not over by any means.

 

Also, Ricketts wouldn't have been unique.

[Joey Russ 7,220]

18 minutes ago, msc said:

Spade came back from circa 50 points down in 2013, it's not over by any means.

 

Also, Ricketts wouldn't have been unique.

I know that about Ricketts, but I think less people would have selected him. I knew other major contenders would though. 

[Toast 16,130]

36 minutes ago, joeyruss said:

I know that about Ricketts, but I think less people would have selected him. I knew other major contenders would though. 

 

[themaninblack 2,112]

A wee update tonight to round off February with another following later this week to kick off March...