Thoughts On The 2017 List

[msc 17,974]

Word of God itself:

 

On 1/1/2017 at 00:12, Grim Reaper said:

Fame level issues for all of them.

 

On why Meads/LazyTown guy/Soares all missed out.

[Joey Russ 7,136]

Does that mean that Stefansson has no chance of making an appearance in 2018? 

[msc 17,974]

I'd say so.

[Deathtreat23 184]

Hit  Number 10 has just been reached as Jerry Lewis has died-August is turning into a good month for hits.

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,237]

Forum veterans Has there ever been such a busy August before? 

[RadGuy 1,605]

On 1/1/2017 at 01:19, Sir Creep said:

 If they get more than 9 I'll send a pound of coffee to the homeless shelter if your chcoice.

 

A promise is a promise...

[Sean 6,047]

On 15/08/2017 at 12:19, Shaun of the Dead said:

So we need 7 to die to get the record so here is my assessment of the 14 most likely to die

1)Jerry Lewis (Heart problems dating back to 1960 as well as many gealth problems.Now has difficulty swallowing following an infection:Been very quiet these past few weeks)

2)Tony Booth (Advanced Alzheimers COPD and congestive heart failure and still smoking)

3)Gord Downie (Now 20months into a glioblastoma diagnosis which is above average.Been quiet again recently.

4)Nobby Stiles (End stage alzheimers dating back well over a decade.In a nursing home and seems close to death according to son.Also has prostate cancer and several strokes.

5)Leah Bracknell (11 months into stage 4 lung cancer and reliant on quack medicine for several months.Nearly died from a build up of fluid on heart last year.)

6)Jake LaMotta (Extremely elderly frail and in a nusing home now.Has had heart problems too)

7)King Michael (Two types of cancer frail but stable but at nearly 96 and a lot of time in hospital things can only get worse)

8)HermanWouk(Exceptionally old wheelchair bound and reliant on oxygen tank.)

9)Jill Gascoigne (Had Alzheimers and has been a nursing home for about 3.All reports seem bleak)

10)Liz Dawn (Had emphysema nearly 15 years is wheelchair bound has heart problems and is prone to pneumonia.Very quiet since heart surgery in June)

11)Valerie Harper (Has metastatic lung cancer in the meninges.Been dying for 4 and a half years but no recent update.)

12)Leslie Philips (Had a serious stroke 2 years ago.Wheelchair bound and nearly died from a seizure a while back.)

13)George H W Bush (Has a form of parkinsons and keeps getting a recurrent lung infection.)

14)Bruce Forsyth (Not been seen orphotographed since 2015 when he had anerysm surgery.At 89 such a slow recovery can't be a good sign)

 

Seems plausible half will go by December 31st.Even if not still a lot of over 90s on this list.Still achievable.

 

2/14 in 4 days.

 

 

 

[msc 17,974]

Yeah, if I were on @Shaun of the Dead's list I'd get my affairs in order ASAP!

[Joey Russ 7,136]

At this point, I would be surprised if the record wasn't broken. Lots of good picks remain...

[Sean 6,047]

It looks like the record will be beaten and could well be thrashed.

[Deadpool 163]

My updated verdict for the 2017 list

 

Almost certain (90-99%) : King Michael of Romania, Leah Bracknell, Tony Booth

 

In real danger (60-90%) but may make to 2018: Gord Downie, Kirk Douglas, George H.W Bush,  Billy Graham, Herman Wouk, Leslie Phillips, Liz Dawn, Valerie Harper, Duke of Edinburgh, Jake Lamotta 

 

Some chance (20-60%): Jill Gascoigne, Desmond Tutu, Carrington, Denis Norden, Pierre Cardin, Jimmy Carter, Robert Mugabe, Javier Perez De Cuellar, Doug Ellis, Hugh Hefner, David Prowse, Stan Lee, Sandy Gall, Pope Benedict XVI, Vera Lynn, Olivia De Havilland, Hosni Mubarak

 

Very little chance (0-20%): Emperor  Akihito, Betty White, Honor Blackman, Queen Elizabeth II, Bob Barker, Bob Dole, Gay Byrne, Fats Domino, Ian St John 

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,237]

1 hour ago, Deadpool said:

My updated verdict for the 2017 list

 

Almost certain (90-99%) : King Michael of Romania, Leah Bracknell, Tony Booth

 

In real danger (60-90%) but may make to 2018: Gord Downie, Kirk Douglas, George H.W Bush,  Billy Graham, Herman Wouk, Leslie Phillips, Liz Dawn, Valerie Harper, Duke of Edinburgh, Jake Lamotta 

 

Some chance (20-60%): Jill Gascoigne, Desmond Tutu, Carrington, Denis Norden, Pierre Cardin, Jimmy Carter, Robert Mugabe, Javier Perez De Cuellar, Doug Ellis, Hugh Hefner, David Prowse, Stan Lee, Sandy Gall, Pope Benedict XVI, Vera Lynn, Olivia De Havilland, Hosni Mubarak

 

Very little chance (0-20%): Emperor  Akihito, Betty White, Honor Blackman, Queen Elizabeth II, Bob Barker, Bob Dole, Gay Byrne, Fats Domino, Ian St John 

I'm curious why you give Bob Barker very little chance of dying? 

[CoffinLodger 1,247]

I think this years list is bound to finally break the  all time record of 14. There's just too many oldies clinging on and too many from the top half .If it doesn't happen this year it never will !

 

This is a bit anorakish but I've worked out that the biggest deficit of bottom half hits to top half hits is -2, in 2008 when there were 6 top half and 8 bottom half hits,and in1999 when there were 4 from the top and 6 from the bottom. There have only ever been 6 years (out of 29) that have ended with more hits from the botton half than the top. This year it's currently -8 (1 from the top, 9 from the bottom) so s urely there has to be a whole lot of top half hits by years end !

[Sean 6,047]

If there is a 15th hit they will be an iconic DL figure.

[Joey Russ 7,136]

I predict Bush Sr for hit #15 in early December...

[Deadpool 163]

15 minutes ago, Gooseberry Crumble said:

I'm curious why you give Bob Barker very little chance of dying? 

It's just my thought...

[Deadpool 163]

7 minutes ago, Shaun of the Dead said:

If there is a 15th hit they will be an iconic DL figure.

Philip Duke of Edinburgh maybe 

[msc 17,974]

7 minutes ago, Shaun of the Dead said:

If there is a 15th hit they will be an iconic DL figure.

 

The man, the myth, the legend.... Javier Perez de Cuellar!

[FixedBusiness 407]

31 minutes ago, Shaun of the Dead said:

If there is a 15th hit they will be an iconic DL figure.

Peter Falk

[CoffinLodger 1,247]

1 hour ago, Joey Russ said:

I predict Bush Sr for hit #15 in early December...

Unless he dies in the middle of mondays eclipse, the first total solar  eclipse to occur across the entire  mainland of the he USA in nearly a century I believe. Wouldn't that be spooky !

[YoungWillz 19,756]

Don't normally post here but with all these hits:

 

 

[Joey Russ 7,136]

So, unless someone gets announced dead tomorrow, they''ll be at ten deaths 2/3 of the year in. Any guesses on who will be the remaining hits. I'm thinking: 

1. King Michael of Romania

2. Leah Bracknell 

3. Gord Downie

4. Herman Wouk

5. Tony Booth 

6. George Bush Sr 

 

Honestly, even that feels a bit conservative, but I'm giving a conservative guess because it's more likely to be that than not. Though, if that is the actual list, then that shows that we don't necessarily need a lot of nonogerian deaths to beat the record. @Phantom of the Midway

[FixedBusiness 407]

Those ones seem like certainties (atleast, all of them except for Herman Wouk who could pass this year, next year or live a few more years), plus we could get another (what's the word I'm looking for.... gamble?) death like Billy Graham or Valerie Harper.

[CastAway 480]

3 hours ago, Joey Russ said:

So, unless someone gets announced dead tomorrow, they''ll be at ten deaths 2/3 of the year in. Any guesses on who will be the remaining hits. I'm thinking: 

1. King Michael of Romania

2. Leah Bracknell 

3. Gord Downie

4. Herman Wouk

5. Tony Booth 

6. George Bush Sr 

 

Honestly, even that feels a bit conservative, but I'm giving a conservative guess because it's more likely to be that than not. Though, if that is the actual list, then that shows that we don't necessarily need a lot of nonogerian deaths to beat the record. @Phantom of the Midway

 

1 hour ago, FixedBusiness said:

Those ones seem like certainties (atleast, all of them except for Herman Wouk who could pass this year, next year or live a few more years), plus we could get another (what's the word I'm looking for.... gamble?) death like Billy Graham or Valerie Harper.

Honestly, given their ages, I wouldn't be surprised if any of the centenarians die this year, including Lynn and Douglas

[msc 17,974]

6 hours ago, Joey Russ said:

So, unless someone gets announced dead tomorrow, they''ll be at ten deaths 2/3 of the year in. Any guesses on who will be the remaining hits. I'm thinking: 

1. King Michael of Romania

2. Leah Bracknell 

3. Gord Downie

4. Herman Wouk

5. Tony Booth 

6. George Bush Sr 

 

Honestly, even that feels a bit conservative, but I'm giving a conservative guess because it's more likely to be that than not. Though, if that is the actual list, then that shows that we don't necessarily need a lot of nonogerian deaths to beat the record. @Phantom of the Midway

 

I am of two minds, but not quite Captain Obvious because of the vast middle ground....

 

Either the list ambles to 12 or 14 hits, and lots of folk get disappointed (though that's a good result usually anyhow), or if it does break the record, it'll break it spectacularly. No "15/50" record...