Derby Dead Pool 2018

[Joey Russ 7,220]

12 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

 

As long as its not you I'm cool

I know that I'm nowhere near the best poster on the forum, but I would never tell someone that I hope that they don't win just because they're not a great poster. 

[Joey Russ 7,220]

@msc did a survivor analysis of some of the top contenders survivors around the midpoint of the year, so I decided to do the same. I made it to include anyone in the current top ten along with a few other special interest names, and I try to be as unbiased as possible. List in spolier:

Spoiler

1. Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi (deadsox) - Well, it's quite hard to tell with terrorists but, while the war in Syria is still ranging on, the fighting with ISIS definitely died down, so he's probably isn't the best terrorist to choose. (3/10)
2. Satoru Anzaki (msc) - Gallbladder cancer is a rarer cancer with a very poor survival rate, slightly surprised he hasn't gone yet. Obit is a bit tricky, but I think he'll get one. (8/10)
3. Colin Baddiel (MPFC) -  Well, he seems to be going downhill from last year, surprised he hasn't died yet tbh. (8/10)
4. Laura Barry (DI) - Has a rare cancer which has already spread to her other organs, so she's probably a goner this year. However, the obit is definitely one of the riskiest punts on this year DDP. (4/10)
5. Gerard Bassett (DDT) - Has esophageal cancer which has a poor prognosis. However, we don't know what stage it's at, but it's definitely one of the classiest picks on the DDP this year. (5/10)
6. Kathleen Blanco (msc, DDT) - When she was first diagnosed she was already reported to be gravely ill, however, it looks to be more of a mid to end year death. She's probably going this year. (9/10)

7. Leah Bracknell (Joey, BOB, EC*, drol, Garn, RadGuy, MPFC, Chorizo, PDF, TMC, deadsox, msc*, Cow, gcreptile, DDT, DI) - She went awfully quiet after some pessimistic interviews. That sounds more ominous than all the shaman bullshit she did last year. (9.5/10)

8. Ami Brown (BOB) - Yeah, she was definitely a fraud, which is why only one team from the teams in my analysis picked her (though they still has a strong team without her). (1/10)

9. Colin Butts (PDF, deadsox) - He won't be able to walk again due to cancer, and there's already reports of him at a hospice. That's why pancreatic cancer should never be underestimated. Not one for long. (9.5/10)

10. Matt Cappotelli (Joey, BOB, drol, Chorizo, PDF, deadsox, msc, Cow, gcreptile, DDT, DI) - Struggling to eat and sleep, and he has discontinued any treatment. Surprised he hasn't gone yet. (10/10)

11. DJ Casper (Garn) - Kidney cancer seems to be one of the slower cancer. While he's statically sound, one does wonder how long one with kidney cancer can last at his age. (6/10)

12. Johnny Clegg (EC, drol, MPFC, DDT, DI) - Cancelled his entire farewell tour and the last health update wasn't the best news. Hm. (8/10)

13. John Cocks (Joey, Cow) - Also has kidney cancer, except he can't do anymore chemo due to a tumor near his spine. He might've been chosen a bit too early, not to mention his obit problems. (7/10)

14. Blackie Dammett (Chorizo) - Apparently not in the greatest health, but we don't know what the health issue is. (5/10)

15. Stuart Fraser (Joey, Chorizo) - No update since the benefit concert apart from a brief mention that he went to lunch with the Noiseworks singer, and I would've thought that if his cancer went into remission, it would've been announced. One of the biggest question marks right now. Also another tricky obit. (5/10)

16. Pete Frates (PDF, msc) - Next year will be his 7th year with ALS. If he's still alive then, that is. (7/10)

17. Greg Gilbert (Joey, EC, drol, Garn, RadGuy*, Chorizo, TMC*, deadsox, msc, Dead Cow, DDT, DI) - Responding well to treatment at the moment. There's always the possibility that the treatment quits working, but he seems more like a Daisy Berkowitz figure tbh. (4/10)

18. Denis Goldberg (drol, MPFC, DDT) - An old guy with terminal lung cancer. Not sure how he's still here tbh. (9/10)

19. Anne Hamilton-Byrne (PDF) - Has been in palliative care for years. As likely to go this year as any other year. (6/10)

20. James Harris aka Kamala (EC, Garn) - Had a major health scare last November. While he's probably a goner five years later, he seems to be doing okay for now. (4/10)

21. Eric Harrison (MPFC) - An old footballer, but not really sure what's wrong with him. (3/10)

22. Bill Heine (drol, Garn, TMC) - Has terminal cancer, but always strike me as more of a 2019 pick. His late in the year diagnosis improves his chances of seeing 2019 imo. (6/10)

23. Robin Herd (MPFC) - In a bad way apparently, but no idea on how ill he is, though since it was OoO that posted him, he's probably not in good health. (7/10)

24. Clive James (Joey, EC, TMC, Cow) - Went from very chatty to very quiet in the last year. Have no idea on how he's doing, and I'm guessing the next update we receive on him is his demise. (8/10)

25. Jose Jose (BOB, drol, Garn, RadGuy, Chorizo, deadsox) - Pancreatic cancer has relapsed, but every update we receive on him he always seem to become better. Though he's not a bad pick in the long run. (7.5/10)

26. Dilip Kumar (BOB, RadGuy, Chorizo) - I just see him as old with some ailments tbh, similar to Bush Sr. (4/10)

27. Kalpana Lajmi (DDT) - Was in ICU in November, but there's no update on her since. Though she is a tricky obit. (5/10)

28. Karen Land (TMC) - Miraculously went into remission. Meaning that if it does relapse, she's probably not obitting. (1/10)

29. Steffan Lewis (msc, DDT) - Diagnosed with cancer in December, turns out it's colon cancer. Probably a year or two too early though. (3/10) 

30. Devin Lima (BOB, EC, drol, Garn, RadGuy, PDF, deadsox, msc, gcreptile) - Silent with a rare cancer, but I think it's a year too soon, though a better pick than, say, Simon Ricketts last year. (6/10)

31. Peter Lorimer (drol, deadsox, DDT) - The news is very quiet for an old footballer. I thought he'd be dead by now tbh. (8/10)

32. Philomena Lynott (RadGuy, msc) - Probably should've been dead a few months ago, but she seems to be very active from her public appearances, which makes me wonder about her no treatment claim. (7/10)

33. Pauline Maroney (gcreptile) - Was announced to have terminal cancer from last year, not sure what she's been doing for the past year, but she's probably a goner. (9/10)

34. John McCain (Joey, BOB, EC, drol, Garn, RadGuy, MPFC, Chorizo, PDF, TMC , deadsox, msc, Cow, gcreptile, DDT, DI) - Apparently on his deathbed, like Cappotelli, not sure how he's still here. (10/10)

35. Olivia Newton-John (Garn, MPFC) - Still touring and in excellent health despite cancer. She'll probably be around for a while. (2/10)

36. Linda Nolan (Joey, BOB, EC, drol, Garn, MPFC, Chorizo, PDF) - Another one with excellent health despite cancer, albeit not as active as Newton-John, but will probably see next year. (2.5/10)

37. Margaret Deirdre O’Neill (TMC) - Wasn't this only rumors with no evidence backing whatsoever? (1/10)

38. Carl Piddington (msc) - His cancer is definitely terminal, but he had it since 2009, though the second tumor definitely sounds ominous. (7/10)

39. Charlotte Rae (BOB, RadGuy, DI) - Looked very poor in public appearances, thought she'd be dead by now, but I guess she still has the will to live. (9/10)

40. Sumner Redstone (gcreptile) - Probably the best pick of the Kumar/Redstone/Zeffirelli trinity. Can't speak anymore, and it doesn't look like he'll make any public appearances soon. (6/10)

41. Lindy Remigino (DDT) - Old person with pancreatic cancer AND looked bad in a recent public appearance. (9.5/10)

42. Simon Ricketts (Ethnic Cleansing, PDF, TMC, deadsox) - Last surgery was successful, but one must wonder how long someone with pancreatic cancer can last. He might not make it if he has another one. (7.5/10)

43. Fernando Ricksen (Joey, BOB, RadGuy, Chorizo TMC, deadsox, Cow, gcreptile) - Probably a year too early. Yes, there was a report that he was close to death, but that got denied. (6/10)

44. Julie Shaw (Chorizo) - Oh look, another cancer mum. Obit chances are probably not too good. (2/10)

45. Stefan Karl Stefansson (Joey, Garn, RadGuy, MPFC, PDF*, TMC, deadsox, msc, DDT, DI) - Quit treatment, and is spending the rest of his life doing personal projects and being with his family. (9.5/10)

46. Nobby Stiles (EC, RadGuy, MPFC, PDF, TMC, Cow, gcreptile, DI) - A bit of a waiting game at this point. Surely he has to go soon, right? (9/10)

47. Bernard Tapie (drol, TMC, Cow) - Has esophageal cancer on top of stomach cancer. There's a chance that he's frauding to get out of a scandal, but my gut feeling is that the illness is legitimate. (8.5/10)

48. Thuy Thanh Truong (gcreptile) - BBC coverage was years back, so she's a very risky obit punt (though fortune favors the brave). But the last health update sounded ominous. (5/10)

49. Hector Timerman (gcreptile) - Trying some experimental treatment for his cancer. And we all knows where most experimental cancer people heads to. (8/10)

50. Marieke Vervoort (Joey*, BOB*, drol, Garn, RadGuy, MPFC, HN, deadsox*, Cow*, gcreptile*, DDT*, DI*) - It's iffy on whether she will actually get euthanized at this point, but I think she's more than likely a goner. The health update that has her struggling to sleep and eat makes me think she's going. (8.5/10)

51. Mike Willesee (PDF, Cow) - Has throat cancer but no idea what stage he's at, though he didn't look the best in his public appearances. (6/10)

52. Yusuke Yamaguchi (Chorizo) - Suffered a stroke, but no idea on how he's doing at the moment. - (4/10)

53. Tiffany Youngs (MPFC, Dead Cow, gcreptile, DI) - Her cancer went into remission and seems to be happy with her family. Could be possible for it to return at some point, but even if it does return this year (which I hope it doesn't so she could spend more time with her family), I have a feeling it'll be too late in the year to score points. (2/10)

 

So, if we take all the people I put as an 7.5 or higher in likelihood, and assume that David Shutts obit and Vervoort goes the natural route, the scoreline would look like this: 

Spoiler

1. Deceased Hose - 182
2. Day In The Death - 174
3. The Living End - 170
4. Pity Da Foolz - 167
5. Drollercoaster - 166
6. Bucket Of Blood - 162
7. Still Life - 160
8. =Thomas Jefferson Survives - 158
9. =The Love Boat - 158
10. Carkers Convention 2018 - 157
11. Ethnic Cleansing - 154
12. This Mortal Coil - 152
13. To Kill A Gabor Sister - 150
14. Poochie Died On The Way Back To His Home Planet - 147
15. Pan Breed - 146 
16. Heading Nowhere - 131

So it looks like deadsox is the favorite to win this year's DDP, and that's all due to some picks that I didn't think were that strong becoming much stronger picks imo. I would come into second, however, that could be because I have some bias with my own picks. The Living End would come into third, he went relatively safe with his team despite having a lot of lower scoring picks, but since he has fewer weaker picks than everyone else, it allows him to get a higher score.

 

Of course, this is an estimate rather than me trying to guess the exact score. I reckon there could be a huge point swing both ways. For example, if Vervoort doesn't die this year, then that would make Pity Da Foolz the winner of the DDP, whereas if Greg Gilbert dies, This Mortal Coil and To Kill a Gabor Sister would both be ahead of everyone except the top 4 predicted (which would include drollercoaster rather than Pity Da Foolz). So, I thought it was interesting one what I found out by doing this exercise...

 

[gcreptile 10,964]

What do you think about the Shalom Ouanounou obit?

[Joey Russ 7,220]

1 minute ago, gcreptile said:

What do you think about the Shalom Ouanounou obit?

I thought about that. It’s an interesting one to watch, but I’m not sure if the U.K. press will pick up on a decision from Canada. If, however, he does obit, then you’d be one point behind me in 3rd place...

[gcreptile 10,964]

At least, I want to improve on my 7th place last year. That Ouanounou obit would seal it.

We both have deadsox ahead now.

 

Still, this year too much depends on one person - and her will to live.

[Joey Russ 7,220]

24 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

At least, I want to improve on my 7th place last year. That Ouanounou obit would seal it.

We both have deadsox ahead now.

 

Still, this year too much depends on one person - and her will to live.

She’s not the only person to depend upon. There’s some more gambles on each persons team that could outscore other teams. For example, if John Cocks dies and obit, then I would lead by one point, ahead of deadsox. She’s certainly the main person though. Like I said, if she doesn’t die this year, then Pity Da Foolz would most likely win the DDP this year. 

[msc 18,437]

Good work Joey.

So, what you're saying is...if Vervoort and Stiles buck the odds, and Piddington goes, then it's on?

 

 

PS SKS appears to be active again?

[Joey Russ 7,220]

5 minutes ago, msc said:

Good work Joey.

So, what you're saying is...if Vervoort and Stiles buck the odds, and Piddington goes, then it's on?

 

 

PS SKS appears to be active again?

Before deleting his Twitter, Stefan Karl said that he wanted to focus on some personal projects as well as spend time with his family before he does the inevitable if that's what you mean. I don't think we'll see him in the public again before he dies. And yes, like I said, it's a guesstimate which means that's potentially the best score, which means there's a chance for almost anyone to either die this year and obit or survive another year. The only picks that I don't think will score for sure is Brown, Land, and O'Neill while Cappotelli and McCain are the only sure things in my analysis...

[Death Impends 7,956]

Looks like SKS is writing his autobiography now and has a Kickstarter for it.

[Joey Russ 7,220]

2 minutes ago, Death Impends said:

Looks like SKS is writing his autobiography now and has a Kickstarter for it.

I remember reading about him starting an autobiography and was going to post it on here, but forgot to for some reason...

[msc 18,437]

 

16 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

I don't think we'll see him in the public again before he dies.

 

 

Ok, its off the Facebook I think his wife runs, but still...

[the_engineer 1,415]

Is that watercress?

[gcreptile 10,964]

Neat. If both him and Gilbert survive, I can affort a couple of misses.

[machotrouts 828]

6 hours ago, Joey Russ said:

Charlotte Rae (BOB, RadGuy, DI) - Looked very poor in pubic appearances

 

You shouldn't have been watching her sex tapes in the first place.

[Joey Russ 7,220]

15 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

Neat. If both him and Gilbert survive, I can affort a couple of misses.

I think it’ll be a couple months at least before Stefan Karl goes, but there’s a reason why I only gave 2 10’s in total, I could see a scenario where everyone else could make 2019. Like how Stefan Karl looks well in that appearance (though I don’t know when it’s dated). Extremely unlikely, I know, but not impossible. 

 

5 minutes ago, machotrouts said:

 

You shouldn't have been watching her sex tapes in the first place.

That typo totally wasn’t there, honest. *innocent face*

[Spade_Cooley 9,515]

7 hours ago, machotrouts said:

 

You shouldn't have been watching her sex tapes in the first place.

 

Girls, girls, girls!

[maryportfuncity 10,639]

Posted elsewhere that Tiffany Youngs (wife of a rugby star and supposedly nailed on this year) has used a combi of starvation, cannabis oil and kicking anything junk food related into touch to turn around the terminal diagnosis to the point she appears to be in remission and says she feels great.

 

That said, it's her the Sun are quoting today - no doctor has his/her name to confirming anything approaching a cure

[Grim Up North 3,725]

14 minutes ago, maryportfuncity said:

has used a combi of starvation, cannabis oil and kicking anything junk food related into touch

 

Nice rugby related terminology! 

[maryportfuncity 10,639]

1 minute ago, Grim Up North said:

 

Nice rugby related terminology! 

 

 

Thanks fella, d'ya think maybe I could make a few quid with wordsmithery one day?

[Grim Up North 3,725]

8 minutes ago, maryportfuncity said:

 

 

Thanks fella, d'ya think maybe I could make a few quid with wordsmithery one day?

 

Yes you and Spade maybe both could 

[msc 18,437]

Satoru Anzaki has died. Died Saturday, Komatsu announced it this morning. Awaiting a QO obit.

[Death Impends 7,956]

8 hours ago, msc said:

Satoru Anzaki has died. Died Saturday, Komatsu announced it this morning. Awaiting a QO obit.

 

Was surprised that this news didn't come with an update to the Cup. One of those classic "dies when everyone gets bored of picking him" sod's laws!

[Spade_Cooley 9,515]

Nothing but respect for all those obituary writers who have so far ignored a Nobel prize winner, the oldest living baseball player and a man every newspaper wrote about last December, so I can do my update at the weekend instead.

[YoungWillz 21,026]

John Julius Norwich seems to be one for the List of the Missed, 10 years after his first appearance on the DDP: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/john-julius-norwich-obituary-zwfmqq3gd

 

http://www.derbydeadpool.co.uk/deadpool2008/celebs_J.html#juliuj

[Sir Creep 7,070]

Sorry for being pedantic, but noticed Elaine ‘Spanky’ McFarlane—whom I love dearly and whoever chose her should be shot on sight—is posted under the letter “S”, whereas M seems correct as I see it.  

SC