Joe Biden

[Brad252 806]

22 minutes ago, Sean said:

Only one congressmen has asked him to step down so far?

Once the first one has spoken out, getting others to follow is much easier.

[Dying Probably 578]

5 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

I think this is actually forcing Democrats to actually think "who can win" instead of "who do we like best". Trump will drive up turnout for and against him. Dems need someone who can convince enough independents/centrists.

So it does not need to be a darling of the base - except that Harris needs to stay on the ticket. So the other person best be a moderate, white, young-ish man, preferably a governor as opposed to Harris's legislative experience. Josh Shapiro, or Andy Beshear. Bonus points for Shapiro for being from a must-win state.

 

Minus points to Shapiro, however, for only being Governor for two years. In my eyes, I agree with your moderate white man theory, but think they might look for someone a bit older (though not quite Biden old): Roy Cooper, Tim Walz, and even Tom Vilsack could do it for her, carrying Southern (Cooper) or Midwestern (Walz/Vilsack) appeal.

[gcreptile 10,963]

12 minutes ago, Dying Probably said:

 

Minus points to Shapiro, however, for only being Governor for two years. In my eyes, I agree with your moderate white man theory, but think they might look for someone a bit older (though not quite Biden old): Roy Cooper, Tim Walz, and even Tom Vilsack could do it for her, carrying Southern (Cooper) or Midwestern (Walz/Vilsack) appeal.

I've heard Roy Cooper being mentioned.

He's older/more experienced than Shapiro. He won NC by 4% whereas Shapiro won PA by 15%. NC though has been a very fixed-at-50:50 state. So yes, he's also good on paper.

Personally, I think it would be good to have a Gen Xer on the ticket. Harris is still born during the last year of the Baby Boomers.

Trump does/did actually best against Biden in the GenX age bracket.

Maybe Beshear is the best choice then, but he wont make Kentucky a blue state.

 

[The Old Crem 3,581]

Harris will bomb if she’s the lead. But that is where things are going it seems. 

[Summer in Transylvania 2,172]

35 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

I've heard Roy Cooper being mentioned

I read this as Roy Cropper and had to do a double take.

[Zsa Zsa's leg 884]

My understanding is that Cooper is the party's favorite recruit for NC's Senate seat in 2026. I think Beshear would be Harris' VP. Adds demographic and geographic diversity, and his career is at a dead end: term-limited southern Democratic Governor with no chance of winning a Senate seat. Either he's included in a Democratic cabinet or he's Kamala's VP. 

[MortalCaso 1,624]

2 hours ago, Sean said:

Only one congressmen has asked him to step down so far?

Money is a powerful thing. 

 

It isn't behind Harris (at least publicly). If it happens, it will be coordinated and over quickly.

[Zsa Zsa's leg 884]

1 minute ago, MortalCaso said:

Money is a powerful thing. 

 

It isn't behind Harris (at least publicly). If it happens, it will be coordinated and over quickly.

If Biden steps down, it will almost certainly be Harris. Campaign finance law stipulates that Harris is allowed to absorb the Biden campaign's funds, while every other candidate would have to start from scratch. This alone makes her the most likely replacement despite her polling numbers. 

[MortalCaso 1,624]

19 minutes ago, Zsa Zsa's leg said:

If Biden steps down, it will almost certainly be Harris. Campaign finance law stipulates that Harris is allowed to absorb the Biden campaign's funds, while every other candidate would have to start from scratch. This alone makes her the most likely replacement despite her polling numbers. 

I agree 100%. Just think the one's pulling the strings aren't sold on Harris > Biden yet.

[Zsa Zsa's leg 884]

19 minutes ago, MortalCaso said:

I agree 100%. Just think the one's pulling the strings aren't sold on Harris > Biden yet.

I agree that it seems like there's a lot of doubt right now. The fact that Biden's not going full damage control and Pelosi/Jeffries/Schumer have been far from enthusiastic after the debate makes me feel that it's just a matter of time before the switch happens, but Harris has her own issues 

[arrowsmith 444]

1 hour ago, Zsa Zsa's leg said:

If Biden steps down, it will almost certainly be Harris. Campaign finance law stipulates that Harris is allowed to absorb the Biden campaign's funds, while every other candidate would have to start from scratch. This alone makes her the most likely replacement despite her polling numbers. 

I’m not entirely sure that this is accurate. I believe, if Biden declined to be nominated, that he would be free to donate his campaign funds away. Harris would not be entitled to them as the campaign up until now has been a primary campaign (she has not been nominated for anything) and Biden is the sole recipient. I can also imagine that a campaign contributor would have a cause of action should she attempt to appropriate the funds without the consent of Biden. 
 

Of course this situation is entirely novel so no one really knows what would happen. 

[MrWonderful 480]

An Ipsos poll from today has Trump and Biden dead even.  A hypothetical Trump vs. Harris matchup has Trump up by 1 point.  Of course, if the popular vote were actually that close, it almost certainly means that Trump wins in the Electoral College.  But I found one other piece of info very interesting:  a hypothetical Trump vs. Michelle Obama matchup had Obama up...BY ELEVEN POINTS!  She probably doesn't want to do it, but holy hell, when you see numbers like that, if I'm in the deep inner circle of Democratic power-brokers, I'm doing everything in my power to convince her to run with Harris (with Obama on top of the ticket).  It is not hyperbole to say that the constitutional republic could be on the line.  

[MrWonderful 480]

1 hour ago, arrowsmith said:

I’m not entirely sure that this is accurate. I believe, if Biden declined to be nominated, that he would be free to donate his campaign funds away. Harris would not be entitled to them as the campaign up until now has been a primary campaign (she has not been nominated for anything) and Biden is the sole recipient. I can also imagine that a campaign contributor would have a cause of action should she attempt to appropriate the funds without the consent of Biden. 
 

Of course this situation is entirely novel so no one really knows what would happen. 

To make a long story short, if Biden drops out before the convention, then the delegates can vote for anyone else of their choosing.  So the delegates decide it.  However, if they wait until after the convention, DNC rules are that the DNC gets to decide who to put forth as the nominee, NOT the delegates.  But that might bring up a whole slew of problems, such as the passage of more time and then perhaps you have issues with getting names on the ballot in certain states and a shorter campaign for the new candidate, etc.  

 

Bottom line, for me, is that if Biden is going to drop out, it would be best to do it ASAP so that the new candidate has a longer runway to campaign.  

[Zsa Zsa's leg 884]

1 hour ago, arrowsmith said:

I’m not entirely sure that this is accurate. I believe, if Biden declined to be nominated, that he would be free to donate his campaign funds away. Harris would not be entitled to them as the campaign up until now has been a primary campaign (she has not been nominated for anything) and Biden is the sole recipient. I can also imagine that a campaign contributor would have a cause of action should she attempt to appropriate the funds without the consent of Biden. 
 

Of course this situation is entirely novel so no one really knows what would happen. 

My understanding from this article is that the funds would be immediately available to Harris, whereas other candidates would have to go through a more complicated process to obtain the funds or that funds specifically donated to a Biden/Harris general election campaign may be unavailable to a non-Harris candidate. 

[arrowsmith 444]

23 minutes ago, Zsa Zsa's leg said:

My understanding from this article is that the funds would be immediately available to Harris, whereas other candidates would have to go through a more complicated process to obtain the funds or that funds specifically donated to a Biden/Harris general election campaign may be unavailable to a non-Harris candidate. 

I saw this too. My understanding is the rules are more opaque (just what you want!) than would be required to necessarily determine this. 
 

Primary campaign funds cannot be given to candidates but are typically given to PACs or the party. I have a feeling the DNC would make an emphatic case for being the recipient of those funds if Biden desired them to have them, whether Harris believed she was legally entitled to them or not. 
 

Again, this is novel. Campaign finance laws are fairly new as most of this was unregulated in the past and laws have not been written to determine what would happen in extraordinary circumstances. 
 

Most of these laws are based on the possibility of a candidate for lesser office dropping out or dying and their party’s chosen successor having a process to get the funds. The vice presidency is a peculiar office - no one runs for it. The vice presidential “candidate” isn’t actually a successor until they are nominated, as delegates are bound to nominate them a vice president. Not as president should the presidential candidate no

longer be running. 
 

The article writers are enjoying making it seem as though she has a bargaining chip but if the DNC doesn’t want her to be the nominee that advantage seems to dry up fairly quickly. 
 

VP Harris is also probably more interested in not having Trump win than in subjecting whoever is running to the legal shit show of arguing over money. 
 

Just my two cents. Well, really more of a dime as I wrote too much. Sorry. 

[arrowsmith 444]

59 minutes ago, MrWonderful said:

To make a long story short, if Biden drops out before the convention, then the delegates can vote for anyone else of their choosing.  So the delegates decide it.  However, if they wait until after the convention, DNC rules are that the DNC gets to decide who to put forth as the nominee, NOT the delegates.  But that might bring up a whole slew of problems, such as the passage of more time and then perhaps you have issues with getting names on the ballot in certain states and a shorter campaign for the new candidate, etc.  

 

Bottom line, for me, is that if Biden is going to drop out, it would be best to do it ASAP so that the new candidate has a longer runway to campaign.  

Indeed. However, this has nothing to do with the money. Should he drop out after the convention everything gets much much worse. 

[Zsa Zsa's leg 884]

1 hour ago, arrowsmith said:

I saw this too. My understanding is the rules are more opaque (just what you want!) than would be required to necessarily determine this. 
 

Primary campaign funds cannot be given to candidates but are typically given to PACs or the party. I have a feeling the DNC would make an emphatic case for being the recipient of those funds if Biden desired them to have them, whether Harris believed she was legally entitled to them or not. 
 

Again, this is novel. Campaign finance laws are fairly new as most of this was unregulated in the past and laws have not been written to determine what would happen in extraordinary circumstances. 
 

Most of these laws are based on the possibility of a candidate for lesser office dropping out or dying and their party’s chosen successor having a process to get the funds. The vice presidency is a peculiar office - no one runs for it. The vice presidential “candidate” isn’t actually a successor until they are nominated, as delegates are bound to nominate them a vice president. Not as president should the presidential candidate no

longer be running. 
 

The article writers are enjoying making it seem as though she has a bargaining chip but if the DNC doesn’t want her to be the nominee that advantage seems to dry up fairly quickly. 
 

VP Harris is also probably more interested in not having Trump win than in subjecting whoever is running to the legal shit show of arguing over money. 
 

Just my two cents. Well, really more of a dime as I wrote too much. Sorry. 

Well said! I appreciate the detail in your post. Definitely changed my perspective. I suppose campaign finance is not the primary reason why Harris is the favorite to succeed Biden.

Still, I have a hard time seeing Dems passing over Harris for Newsom - who's not a Kennedy or Obama by any means. Democrats would have a lot of explaining to do (especially to Black voters and women) if they dropped Kamala for Newsom, Shapiro, etc. Barring any scandal (ex: Spiro Agnew), there's little incentive for dropping a Vice President from a ticket. Dan Quayle was unpopular and a major drag on GWHB's 1988 and 1992 campaigns, but Bush kept him on the ticket because Quayle would be more of a liability if let loose. The assumption was that a VP let go from a ticket would be free to criticize and retaliate against their former running mate. I have to assume that this custom would apply to an incumbent VP if the President were to withdraw from the campaign with her as his running mate. 

[Dying Probably 578]

9 hours ago, Zsa Zsa's leg said:

My understanding is that Cooper is the party's favorite recruit for NC's Senate seat in 2026. I think Beshear would be Harris' VP. Adds demographic and geographic diversity, and his career is at a dead end: term-limited southern Democratic Governor with no chance of winning a Senate seat. Either he's included in a Democratic cabinet or he's Kamala's VP. 

 

Isn't Wiley Nickel (Rep who would've been dead in '24 if he even bothered to run) running? Another strong candidate - outperformed top of the ticket by a few points in '22.

[Zsa Zsa's leg 884]

3 hours ago, Dying Probably said:

 

Isn't Wiley Nickel (Rep who would've been dead in '24 if he even bothered to run) running? Another strong candidate - outperformed top of the ticket by a few points in '22.

Yes he is, and he's a good candidate as well, but I think Cooper would be the party's choice since he has a record of ousting a GOP incumbent and has near universal name recognition as Governor. If he wants to run, I think Schumer clears the field for him. 

[Dying Probably 578]

Has reportedly told allies he's weighing whether to continue. We're in the end stretch, methinks...

[Tango854 278]

A very interesting job offer that came at a very interesting time.

[Charles De Gaulle 484]

Wasn't the plan that Kamala Harris would run in 2024 anyways? Like back in 2020 I thought the deal was Biden was only serving one term

[Zsa Zsa's leg 884]

Has had a conversation with Rep. Jim Clyburn; spox refuses to discuss the contents of their conversation

Can the lettuce live stream start now?

[gcreptile 10,963]

Yes, the idea will be how to best position Kamala Harris for the race. Clyburn was the one who demanded that Biden picked an African-American VP.

They will have to do a balancing act, how to take Joe off the ticket, without harming the whole administration.

I do believe that the Biden administration has actually been pretty competent.

[arrowsmith 444]

37 minutes ago, Charles De Gaulle said:

Wasn't the plan that Kamala Harris would run in 2024 anyways? Like back in 2020 I thought the deal was Biden was only serving one term

Unfortunately, no. Many of us hoped he’d commit to standing down after his first term but he never did.