By -Election Bingo 2019-2024

[TQR 14,384]

Just now, Bibliogryphon said:

 

Tactical voting is everything.

 

Lab, Lib, Grn, Ind and whoever else, BACK THE MRLP.

[Katyusha 120]

2 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

 

This doesn't conflict what I said, does it? North Shropshire looked even more lopsided than that in 2019, again with Labour as the largest *opposition party. The Liberal Democrats just don't seem to be treated the same by voters in by-election times.

Edited June 9, 2023 by Katyusha
error

[Bibliogryphon 9,569]

1 minute ago, Katyusha said:

This doesn't conflict what I said, does it? North Shropshire looked even more lopsided than that in 2019, again with Labour as the largest *opposition party. The Liberal Democrats just don't seem to be treated the same by voters in by-election times.

 

Most recent polling

 

[Bibliogryphon 9,569]

3 minutes ago, TQR said:

Tactical voting is everything.

 

Lab, Lib, Grn, Ind and whoever else, BACK THE MRLP.

 

Well the last MRLP candidate really wasn't trying they didn't have a stupid made up name or anything

 

However when your opponent is Nadine Dorres how do you try to make yourself look like the most unhinged candidate?

[Katyusha 120]

2 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

 

Most recent polling

 

Ah couldn't find that, yes that does paint a different picture. Labour definitely second place favourites then - though I'd still say these kinds of by-elections have a way of surprising you. May well end up a tight three-way race.

[Bibliogryphon 9,569]

6 minutes ago, Katyusha said:

Ah couldn't find that, yes that does paint a different picture. Labour definitely second place favourites then - though I'd still say these kinds of by-elections have a way of surprising you. May well end up a tight three-way race.

 

This is why I think it will be a Tory Hold.

 

At this time Keir Starmer cannot be seen to be making electoral pacts. The Lib Dems will fancy their chances. However, if the Tory faithful sit on their hands and simply don't vote rather than switch allegiance then it could be a shock result.

[Katyusha 120]

1 minute ago, Bibliogryphon said:

 

This is why I think it will be a Tory Hold.

 

At this time Keir Starmer cannot be seen to be making electoral pacts. The Lib Dems will fancy their chances. However, if the Tory faithful sit on their hands and simply don't vote rather than switch allegiance then it could be a shock result.

As cliche as it sounds I really think the odds here are bout a third each for no change, tactical labour victory or apathetic lib dem victory. We'll definitely need more time closer to polling day with this one to start making a remotely concrete prediction.

[Bibliogryphon 9,569]

1 minute ago, Katyusha said:

As cliche as it sounds I really think the odds here are bout a third each for no change, tactical labour victory or apathetic lib dem victory. We'll definitely need more time closer to polling day with this one to start making a remotely concrete prediction.

 

The Conservatives will get to pick the date. It is possible they will pick the same day as the Scotland one (if it comes to that) thinking that one day of bad headlines is better than two days of bad headlines a couple of weeks apart

 

If Labour fails to win both seats will Rishi be tempted to go to the polls sooner rather than later?

[Katyusha 120]

6 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

 

The Conservatives will get to pick the date. It is possible they will pick the same day as the Scotland one (if it comes to that) thinking that one day of bad headlines is better than two days of bad headlines a couple of weeks apart

 

If Labour fails to win both seats will Rishi be tempted to go to the polls sooner rather than later?

Perhaps not just if Labour fails to win both, but if Lab gets neither and the Tories get at least one quite possibly. I think the conservative establishment are likely to conclude such a moment is as good as their chances are going to be for a while and not risk waiting longer for a snap election, for the "trust of the nation" of course.

Edit: Assuming Rutherglen is the potential Scottish one? I see that as a place thoroughly apathetic with politics, so I expect some slightly wacky results there from low turnout.

[RoverAndOut 4,745]

31 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

The Conservatives will get to pick the date. It is possible they will pick the same day as the Scotland one (if it comes to that) thinking that one day of bad headlines is better than two days of bad headlines a couple of weeks apart

 

If Labour fails to win both seats will Rishi be tempted to go to the polls sooner rather than later?

 

Just for some further context, Mid Beds is 436th on Labour's list of targets and has been a Tory-held seat since 1931. I'm not sure holding onto it in a by-election should be seen as a ringing endorsement that Rishi should go to the polls. 

[TQR 14,384]

2 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said:

Just for some further context, Mid Beds is 436th on Labour's list of targets and has been a Tory-held seat since 1931. I'm not sure holding onto it in a by-election should be seen as a ringing endorsement that Rishi should go to the polls. 

He should definitely fucking go to the polls, as I’m sure a lot of the country wouldn’t mind telling him.

[RoverAndOut 4,745]

37 minutes ago, TQR said:

He should definitely fucking go to the polls, as I’m sure a lot of the country wouldn’t mind telling him.

 

Oh, I don't disagree with that sentiment, sooner the better, but if Rishi takes a hold in Mid Beds as a sign this his best shot, I'd suggest he's probably mistaken (although it could be as good a time as any barring a significant uptick in the next 12 months!).

[TQR 14,384]

Uxbridge and South Ruislip are to have a by-election as a result of their elected filthy piece of toerag walking immediately after receiving the Partygate report.

 

[Brad252 806]

 

18 hours ago, Bibliogryphon said:

 

This is why I think it will be a Tory Hold.

 

At this time Keir Starmer cannot be seen to be making electoral pacts. The Lib Dems will fancy their chances. However, if the Tory faithful sit on their hands and simply don't vote rather than switch allegiance then it could be a shock result.

Now both Johnson and Dorries have stepped down, a de facto pact is more likely as Labour will be the favourites for Uxbridge & South Ruislip. As Ferrier hasn't stepped own/been recalled yet, this by-election may not be the same day as the other 2, but as Johnson and Dorries resigned the same day there should be no excuse to have them on different days.

[Commtech Sio Bibble 2,027]

 

Another one.

[TQR 14,384]

15 minutes ago, Commtech Sio Bibble said:

 

Another one.

Another Johnson tummy tickler. Had 20k votes on nearest rivals Labour in 2019 though so not a likely flip.

[Brad252 806]

29 minutes ago, TQR said:

Another Johnson tummy tickler. Had 20k votes on nearest rivals Labour in 2019 though so not a likely flip.

Difficult, but easier than Dorries' old constituency, and the previous constituency of Selby was Labour in the New Labour years.

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,879]

Main marker for me in the Adams and Dorries by-elections will be the size of the swing. Both 20k majorites. In Adams case his majority prior to 2019 was between 12k and 13k in 2015 and 2017 so will be interesting to see how much it falls back by

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,879]

Beth Rigby and Jon Craig both saying more resignations are anticpated. 

 

You'd wonder would Sunak just go fuck it and go to the country (he should but he won't) given a GE is only over a year away anyway.

[Bibliogryphon 9,569]

The two confirmed by-elections are to be held on 20th July

[Sean 6,309]

I will wait to see if more go before an update.

[Bibliogryphon 9,569]

24 minutes ago, Sean said:

I will wait to see if more go before an update.

 

Also to confirm in Mad Nads actually goes...

[TQR 14,384]

5 hours ago, Bibliogryphon said:

 

Also to confirm in Mad Nads actually goes...

She can’t even resign immediately without fucking that up.

[YoungWillz 21,023]

On 30/04/2022 at 10:29, TQR said:

This month in Tory (not including their leader):

 

2 April - David Warburton MP suspended for sexual harassment and drug use

11 April - Imran Khan MP guilty of child sex assault

23 April - Unnamed Tory MP(s) brief MoS an Angela Rayner smear to help create a horrendous, desperate, misogynistic front page

28 April - Jamie Wallis MP charged with careless driving & not reporting a crash

28 April - Matt Hancock MP’s care home discharge policy during the pandemic found to be unlawful and the cause of up to 20k deaths, he then lies about not having facts he’s on record as having from the start

29 April - Neil Parish MP suspended for watching porn in Parliament

29 April - Baroness Michelle Mone’s home raided by police for PPE fraud, Michael Gove MP also linked

 

The “party of law & order” there.

David Warburton to resign seat: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jun/17/david-warburton-conservative-mp-suspended-over-drugs-allegations-to-resign-seat

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,337]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12206269/Conservative-MP-caught-sex-cocaine-sting-tells-MoS-Im-quitting.html

 

Another by-election pending according to media reports scandal stricken Conservative MP David Warburton to resign his seat soon as he feels he was denied a fair hearing by the party.