Coronavirus death toll 2020

[Charlotte's Controller 195]

You are hired

[Skinny kiltrunner 553]

Canada takes the initiative and says they will not send a team to Tokyo for the Olympic Games this year.  Best move Trudeau has made since taking office, finally starting to lead. I would expect other countries to follow suit quickly and the Games will be officially postponed before the week is up.

[theoldlady 2,307]

On 22/03/2020 at 08:05, theoldlady said:

Good Morning! Today is Sunday, March 22nd.

There are now 13,069 deaths worldwide, not counting the deaths China is hiding.

The numbers from the end of the day yesterday in Norway are: still only 7 deaths , 2167 cases

1,000 New cases in one day! 

12th Day of working from home for me. 

Good Morning! Today is Monday, March 23rd.

There are now 14,703 deaths worldwide, not counting the deaths China is hiding.

The numbers at the end of the day yesterday in Norway are: 2385 cases, still only 7 deaths .

NB! The news here is reporting a somewhat lower amount of cases (2132 cases) than the Worldometer website? Strange.

24,000 people have registered Online here, within only a few hours,  that they are showing symptoms of the disease. The news said that they will not get any help until their symptoms get `serious`. 
13th day of working from home for me.

 

We now have 9 deaths.  And (this morning 153 ) now 162 New cases today.

Now 10 deaths!  Please remember that the population of Norway is the same as one large city in Germany - like Hamburg. Scary. 

Edited March 23, 2020 by theoldlady
To show updates!

[Cerberus 302]

1 hour ago, theoldlady said:

Good Morning! Today is Monday, March 23rd.

There are now 14,703 deaths worldwide, not counting the deaths China is hiding.

The numbers at the end of the day yesterday in Norway are: 2385 cases, still only 7 deaths .

NB! The news here is reporting a somewhat lower amount of cases (2132 cases) than the Worldometer website? Strange.

24,000 people have registered Online here, within only a few hours,  that they are showing symptoms of the disease. The news said that they will not get any help until their symptoms get `serious`. 
13th day of working from home for me.

Let's not forget North Korea, which last I heard claimed not to have had a single case - if the true death toll there is less than 2000 I'd be very surprised, but of course we'll never know.

 

Hoping - against hope - for a sub-600 total from Italy today. Spain has declared 41, but expect that to be up tenfold before the end of the day.

 

Italy should overtake China in total cases by the end of the week at this rate.

 

Not allowed to work from home - I'm on Sainsburys supply chain - but enjoying a day off. Got to the bakers this morning and so have bread for the first time in four days. 

[paddyfool 379]

Casual prediction: This year, the UK will see more deaths than in any year on record for the last hundred years (I'm not sure if we'll exceed the whopping 715,000 deaths seen in 1918 courtesy of WWI and the Spanish Flu, but I reckon 2020 will likely beat every year since then; for reference, the last year on record, 2018, saw 616,000 deaths). 

[Deathray 2,941]

5 minutes ago, paddyfool said:

Casual prediction: This year, the UK will see more deaths than in any year on record for the last hundred years (I'm not sure if we'll exceed the whopping 715,000 deaths seen in 1918 courtesy of WWI and the Spanish Flu, but I reckon 2020 will likely beat every year since then; for reference, the last year on record, 2018, saw 616,000 deaths). 

 

For context - the grimmest league table in history (stats start from 1887)

 

1918 - 715,246

1891 - 696,490

1900 - 695,867

1899 - 685,510

1976 - 680,799

1895 - 676,110

1979 - 675,576

1972 - 673,938

1893 - 673,722

1940 - 673,253

 

Also in 2018 there was 1687 deaths a day.

And in 2017 there was 1663 deaths a day

 

Puts the Covid-19 numbers in context. 

[paddyfool 379]

Yep, my general reckoning that that prediction was calculating from an excess mortality this year of about 75k, both from direct Covid19 deaths and indirect disruption to standard healthcare deaths, giving a midrange prediction of about 690k deaths for the year. 

 

It may well be that I'm wildly out in one direction or the other, however.

[Deathray 2,941]

1 hour ago, paddyfool said:

Yep, my general reckoning that that prediction was calculating from an excess mortality this year of about 75k, both from direct Covid19 deaths and indirect disruption to standard healthcare deaths, giving a midrange prediction of about 690k deaths for the year. 

  

It may well be that I'm wildly out in one direction or the other, however.

 

The issue is we don't know if Covid just finishes off many people who were going to die anyway or hits gen pop more. It's prevalence in hospitals with lots of people who are dying anyway suggests the death numbers may not be all that more than normal. 

[paddyfool 379]

21 minutes ago, Deathray said:

 

The issue is we don't know if Covid just finishes off many people who were going to die anyway or hits gen pop more. It's prevalence in hospitals with lots of people who are dying anyway suggests the death numbers may not be all that more than normal. 

 

We'll see. The evidence from Italy and, recently, London indicates that a significant proportion of previously healthy adults are getting ARDS and requiring intensive care at least.  And we've yet to see it peak in Italy, which suggests we can expect at least 2 weeks of the situation in the UK getting worse before it starts to get better.

[Genfærd 452]

6 hours ago, theoldlady said:

Good Morning! Today is Monday, March 23rd.

There are now 14,703 deaths worldwide, not counting the deaths China is hiding.

The numbers at the end of the day yesterday in Norway are: 2385 cases, still only 7 deaths .

NB! The news here is reporting a somewhat lower amount of cases (2132 cases) than the Worldometer website? Strange.

24,000 people have registered Online here, within only a few hours,  that they are showing symptoms of the disease. The news said that they will not get any help until their symptoms get `serious`. 
13th day of working from home for me.

 

Denmark jumped from 13 to 24 deaths just now. Damn. 

[theoldlady 2,307]

On 22/03/2020 at 12:47, ladyfiona said:

From Twitter:

 

Will be interesting to see How Norway fares here. We are at 9 deaths now. We have been locked-down almost 2 weeks now. 

Update: 10 deaths!

Edited March 23, 2020 by theoldlady
Updates!

[Toast 16,152]

UK total was 281 yesterday, so well behind the Italian equivalent day at 366.  Fingers crossed.

[paddyfool 379]

21 minutes ago, theoldlady said:

Will be interesting to see How Norway fares here. We are at 9 deaths now. We have been locked-down almost 2 weeks now. 

 

You'd hope to see a slowdown in deaths 2 or 3 weeks post lockdown. The next week should show whether or not that applies.

 

3 minutes ago, Toast said:

UK total was 281 yesterday, so well behind the Italian equivalent day at 366.  Fingers crossed.

 

I'd like to hope that we'd follow a gentler course, but that's just one day's data. 

[Deathray 2,941]

335 deaths in total in the UK now.....

 

Day on day decline for the 2nd day in a row,

 

Much ado about nothing?

[Boudicca 702]

I've just bought the last box of wine in the highlands. There's none on the west coast. This is going to be interesting. Death toll from abrupt withdrawal to add to it.

[Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,219]

15 minutes ago, Deathray said:

335 deaths in total in the UK now.....

 

Day on day decline for the 2nd day in a row,

 

Much ado about nothing?

You know how it works Deathers.

Some like to say that the glass is half full and some resolutely suggest that its half empty.

 

[ladyfiona 2,593]

I get daily email updates and so this is from CEO of the trust I work for between two hospitals in Berkshire that have a&e units:

• Deaths - 3 (in the last two weeks)
• Cases being treated in hospital - 77

Reports from staff I work with who treats patients at one of the hospitals affected is that they are short of masks.

[Cerberus 302]

26 minutes ago, Boudicca said:

I've just bought the last box of wine in the highlands. There's none on the west coast. This is going to be interesting. Death toll from abrupt withdrawal to add to it.

 

If your supermarket has run out of booze try a garage. Plenty of beer, wine and spirits in my local Shell today. Bit of a mark-up though as you'd expect. 23 quid for a bottle of Morgans? Profiteering indeed. 

[paddyfool 379]

42 minutes ago, Deathray said:

335 deaths in total in the UK now.....

 

Day on day decline for the 2nd day in a row,

 

Much ado about nothing?

 

Unfortunately, it's not a day on day decline.

 

Over the last three days the daily uk confirmed covid19 death total has been static if anything (56 then 48 then 54). But three days of steady figures can easily be a false summit, as we saw in Italy previously. With the ICUs of London filling up rapidly, it's going to become significantly harder to keep patients in ths epicentre alive.  Assuming no treatment breakthrough etc etc

[ladyfiona 2,593]

 

[Lard Bazaar 3,800]

So for all the government’s bluster about helping the self employed by letting them claim 94 whole quid a week, this still only applies if you’d have been entitled to it before anyway.  My old man is self employed and upon finishing the job he’s on now, has no further work but because I apparently earn too much he can’t claim anything at all.  So my way-below-average single wage now has to cover absolutely everything, which it won’t.  I am still working and don’t think I will be let go, but if they have to stop paying us and my wage then drops to the 80% the government will pay, I’ve no idea how we will manage.

 

I realise many many people are in the same, or worse, positions.  I’m just feeling very low and out of kilter today, a big old cloud of doom is lurking. I wonder what he’s got to say in his announcement this evening. 

[Deathray 2,941]

Just now, Lard Bazaar said:

So for all the government’s bluster about helping the self employed by letting them claim 94 whole quid a week, this still only applies if you’d have been entitled to it before anyway.  My old man is self employed and upon finishing the job he’s on now, has no further work but because I apparently earn too much he can’t claim anything at all.  So my way-below-average single wage now has to cover absolutely everything, which it won’t.  I am still working and don’t think I will be let go, but if they have to stop paying us and my wage then drops to the 80% the government will pay, I’ve no idea how we will manage.

  

I realise many many people are in the same, or worse, positions.  I’m just feeling very low and out of kilter today, a big old cloud of doom is lurking. I wonder what he’s got to say in his announcement this evening. 

 

Yeah much of the governments recent stuff is sticking plasters. UC normal entitlements count. 

 

I'm likely out of work for 12 weeks for medical reasons, not on leave - out of work. Thankfully I've a caring family around me but not everyone will be lucky..

[paddyfool 379]

26 minutes ago, Lard Bazaar said:

So for all the government’s bluster about helping the self employed by letting them claim 94 whole quid a week, this still only applies if you’d have been entitled to it before anyway.  My old man is self employed and upon finishing the job he’s on now, has no further work but because I apparently earn too much he can’t claim anything at all.  So my way-below-average single wage now has to cover absolutely everything, which it won’t.  I am still working and don’t think I will be let go, but if they have to stop paying us and my wage then drops to the 80% the government will pay, I’ve no idea how we will manage.

 

I realise many many people are in the same, or worse, positions.  I’m just feeling very low and out of kilter today, a big old cloud of doom is lurking. I wonder what he’s got to say in his announcement this evening. 

 

I'm sorry to hear that. Is there any prospect of your old man going for one of the available extra jobs with supermarkets, delivery companies, or as agricultural labour? I know they aren't exactly enticing options, but better than nothing.

 

(The much needed employment would be yet another reason to crack on with building extra hospital space, of course... not that staffing it properly looks at all feasible, but we need the beds). 

[Deathray 2,941]

20 minutes ago, paddyfool said:

 

I'm sorry to hear that. Is there any prospect of your old man going for one of the available extra jobs with supermarkets, delivery companies, or as agricultural labour? I know they aren't exactly enticing options, but better than nothing.

  

 (The much needed employment would be yet another reason to crack on with building extra hospital space, of course... not that staffing it properly looks at all feasible, but we need the beds). 

 

Those extra jobs aren't really options for people in at risk categories tbf. Most of whom need the support more than anyone else; and a lot of whom will be self-employed due to the control it gives them over their own lives around medical issues. 

[Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,219]

53 minutes ago, Lard Bazaar said:

So for all the government’s bluster about helping the self employed by letting them claim 94 whole quid a week, this still only applies if you’d have been entitled to it before anyway.  My old man is self employed and upon finishing the job he’s on now, has no further work but because I apparently earn too much he can’t claim anything at all.  So my way-below-average single wage now has to cover absolutely everything, which it won’t.  I am still working and don’t think I will be let go, but if they have to stop paying us and my wage then drops to the 80% the government will pay, I’ve no idea how we will manage.

 

I realise many many people are in the same, or worse, positions.  I’m just feeling very low and out of kilter today, a big old cloud of doom is lurking. I wonder what he’s got to say in his announcement this evening. 

I am in the same situation.

My son has had to lay 5 people off, they can claim the 80% of their wage, better than nothing.

Me? Self employed with a working spouse. I get fuck all. At the moment.....

I am hearing that the Government is going to bring out a scheme where we get a percentage of our earnings too.

Enough shit has flown around this, they know they have to do something.

I will be applying online over the weekend, I am expecting to hear positive news from BoJo about sorting this out.

Hopefully.