Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

[CaptainChorizo 1,982]

18 hours ago, gcreptile said:

It's interesting that the forum has a simple majority for a Trump victory, just like the betting markets:

https://www.axios.com/2020-investors-predict-trump-victory-2158c84e-9179-4c17-ad34-f91ffcb508b5.html

 

The polls however point towards a fairly uncomplicated Biden victory, with wins in all the Obama 2012 states plus Arizona and possibly North Carolina. And Georgia and even Texas very close.

A theory is that this is an opposite reaction to the overconfidence in a Clinton win in 2016. But I guess that many people also think that Trump is eventually going to catch some populist mood, that he somehow pulls it out, that Biden isn't a "real" opponent. 

Could be an overreaction and pessism to why Trump is winning the betting markets, or could be that in the last 30 years we have seen 3 Democrats(Kerry,Dukakis,Hilary) ahead in polling before the summer only for them to absolutely collapse. Biden is ahead right now playing Weekend At Biden's/The Invisible Man and it being a yes/no referendum on Trump.  If he is still ahead  closer to Nov them the betting markets will flood in his direction since there is no Comey Letter or magic bullet that can take him down in the last month.

[msc 18,466]

9 hours ago, Joey Russ said:

Let me try to explain my mindset. My beliefs are progressive. I have values that candidates need to pass to earn my support. I also need to believe their sincere about it. Simple enough?

Right, so lets look at Biden and Trump. Both are pretty awful candidates. Both have major problems while they were in political office. As such, if I were to vote for Biden or Trump, I would feel like I'm indirectly responsible for any terrible thing they do in office (and both will likely do many of those things). 

This is why I'm never voting for Trump btw. Even though he (on super super rare occasions) done the right thing like support the First Step Act, and tries to sell you like he's on your side, I know he's lying. I've seen his coronavirus response. I see his racial policies. I see him trying to destroy any positive aspect of the current health care system we have. 

Biden has made many problems throughout his career, and as such I concluded that he's not going to be much better than Trump. Yeah, maybe he wouldn't be so quick to end the lockdown we have, but there's other aspects of the virus response I think will be exactly the same as Trump. For example, bailing out all the shitty industries rather than actually helping the American people with paying their bills. In the past, Biden worked with segregationists on some racial policies like busing. And I see no chance of Biden even improving the health care in the US by any means. I mean, he was vice president for Obama, and Obamacare was basically a half measure of any reasonable healthcare reform. 

Admittedly, Biden is better on some issues like climate change. But is that really enough? His climate change policy while better really won't do much to solve the climate crisis. 

Even with all of Biden's flaws in mind, I would still be open to supporting him if he'd both say and prove he'd fight for me on one of my major issues. Instead, he basically showed me the front door, and said "I don't need you". 

So yeah, that's where I'm at. At this point and time I can't get myself to vote for Biden, and I really don't like it when folk said you have to vote for him even though he basically gave me the middle finger. But I'll leave it at that, and I see no point in arguing further. So it's likely an agree to disagree situation. 

 

Really showing your age on Obamacare, Joey. "A half measure of any reasonable healthcare reform" caused the US to lose its fucking shit, including your right wing Democrats (mostly led by Joe Lieberman in those days) which made even passing that night to impossible.  The Republicans ran in the 2010 midterms on "Obama's going to take your health care away" and won a landslide in the House and took the healthcare vote out of contention in the Senate by making it 51-49 and leaving the usual suspects on the Blue team to refuse to back it. At the same time as he became President, Obama was left with 3 major things he wanted to do: roll back the civil liberty infringes from the Bush era, stop the recession turning into a major US depression worse than the 1930s, and expand healthcare. He started trying the first one with his first Presidential speech. The middle one took precedent and the Obama Administration bailed out several major employers in the Rust Belt to stop the economy tipping over, and he had to fight Republicans in the Senate tooth and nail for that one too. Because the Senate was so against even small changes like "let's not make most people in one of the major cities unemployed" it took time to get past the gridlock. In 2020, you can look and say that Obama should have used more executive orders like Trump does to get what he wants, but that wasn't how Presidents operated, on the whole, but it's also forgetting that Obama did use a lot of them. One of the first was to ensure the US operated under the Geneva Convention, for a reminder of how much things had slipped in the 2000s.

 

But yeah, 2009 is a prime example of what happens when a progressive candidate wins the White House. The careerists in Washington try to block even common sense stuff. Obama wanted a public health care option, he managed to expand slightly Medicaid for the first in 50 years (admittedly to 100 million people, many of whom rely on it as a life and death thing, so you know, lets not mock the poor here), and he had to fight to the death to even get that far.

 

I don't doubt your beliefs or values. I will add that sincerity is overrated. Many great progressive acts have been passed by charlatans, and many great sincere progressives (I refer to Barack above) have been absolutely stuck in the mire of trying to get anything done. A Harold Wilson who got X, Y and Z done for political gambit reasons was more successful than a Tony Benn who fervently believed in them, but never got close to power.

 

So let's look at Trump's record. Concentration camps, which I forgot last time we spoke on this matter. Don't get shrill and mention the Nazis, folks, a concentration camp is merely a place you concentrate lots of people with inadequate resources to keep them out of the way. The executions and forced labour are additional extras. These mass detention centres are, and you'd expect Biden to shut them down immediately - that's not even a partisan issue (although Trump and MItch try to make it so) as Republicans like John McCain opposed the proposals in the past. He's a climate change denialist, but of the Bolsonaro style, who actively go the opposite way out of spite.

 

His foreign policy has been so cack-handed and inept he has nearly led the world to the brink of war three times (earlier this year, when he was trying to rile up N Korea, and with his continued meddling in the Middle East) in ways that no US President has bumbled so often before. Besides that, his own voters voted for him for isolationism against Hawk Clinton. He's be the least isolationist President since Roosevelt who fought a World War! He tore up a peace treaty which would have aided the US in foreign policy, in the treasury and in their goals in the Middle East, because Obama pushed for it.

 

His basic financial incompetence is another issue which keeps cropping up too. He misunderstands the concept of tariffs, thinking they can punish non-Americans not realising US farmers are losing money en masse from them. The same people in the Rust Belt who voted for him, and whose local economies are struggling en masse as their farms rely on low trade between countries Trump is in a strop with, and cheap labour that his ICE department keep locking up in detention centres. Also, on a personal economic level, his fucking around with the US dollar in the last few years has cost me a pretty penny in admin costs that wouldn't have otherwise existed thanks to the increase in red tape, so the fiscal conservative part of me thinks he's a fucking cunt too.

 

As for the racial dimension, well, I am not a black American so obviously much of this is something I can only imagine. But when folk who actually are tell me that Biden is far better on the matter than Trump, and that they fear for their lives under day to day in Trump's America, I try not to brush it off, because that's their life experience after all. And it may yet be a decisive issue in the next election.

 

He also wasted all that money on the useless wall which doesn't work, but that probably distracted him from even further damage to the world economy, so you know... (Although, I often laugh to find out the Mexico wall is very popular in Alaska but not so popular in fucking Texas or Arizona where its being built!)

 

Also, on coronavirus, I know many of the worlds nations are in a fight to be rubbish over it, but... at least Boris Johnson doesn't suggest bleach can help.

 

So even if you don't view Donald Trump as an existential threat to the world, he's a menace to most normal peoples money that should be avoided at most causes, and supports several dodgy policies and friends that shouldn't be in high office.

 

So, Joe Biden instead. Ironically, given recent events, some of his great achievements were in confronting domestic abuse in the 90s when no one wanted to. He was also the first elected White House official, President or Vice President, in history to publicly back gay marriage. He was one of the first in the Senate to actively push for climate change proposals back when it was unsexy. He pushed for action against Milosevic on humanitarian grounds when people looked the other way.  He fought at Obama's side in many meetings over aforementioned impending depression in 2009, and was one of the main reasons General Motors stayed open and prevent the state of Michigan falling into a depression followed by the rest of the country. He managed to pass one of the only gun control laws the US has ever managed, on assault weapons, which Bush Jr allowed to expire. He authored the Violence Against Women Act. He introduced the tracking of paedophiles in the country as a Federal issue so they could no longer jump state and disappear. The Violent Crime Act did lead to results unforeseen at the time (prison overcrowding, the gaming of the system to screw over poorer defendants) but had been intended to deal with an epidemic in drugs crimes in the 1990s. As with the good parts of the Act above, and indeed the Dont Ask Dont Tell Clinton proposals, they were designed to protect vulnerable people against abuse. It's just that the US system is very good at abusing good intentions. He also was an early and strong advocate of campaign finance reform, something close to your heart Joey, as being one of the less financially well off Senators in his time he was stunned by how much open bribery corrupt folk would try and offer the vulnerable.

 

Biden is what I'd call a pragmatic hawk. He supported action in Bosnia on humanitarian grounds (as did I for the record), he supported action in Afghanistan because that's where Bin Laden was (he escaped from the country while the US was in it), and he supported Iraq because he got conned by the fake intelligence, like many other honourable people, although he also stated that once you are and got rid of the President, you can't just leave the vaccum unintended - which is true. He opposed the original Gulf War interference, he opposed warmongering against Iran, and those who use the Israel/Palestine troubles for sabre rattling. As your typical wishy washy live and let live type, I am resigned to the US getting involved militarily in the world. Jimmy Carter is the only US President not to send the US troops into battle. I'd rather someone who judges the issues on a case by case issue and tries to look at the long term picture, then a bumbling narcissist.

 

On the matter of race relations, have you seen Biden's black vote. The American black voter, on majority (they aren''t a collective Borg mass after all) seem to view Bidens whole hearted support of the first black President as mattering more on his standing than events from the 70s. Robert Byrd was mourned as a key ally of Obama, and his career started in the 1950s as the Klans man in Washington. People are allowed to grow in their views and become better people. But again, not my life experience to talk about, just noting thats the general view.

 

 

So, if Biden is likely better on foreign policy, race relations, the economy, dealing with national crises like the Coronavirus, the climate,  and the dollar in your pocket, is he really not much better than Trump? Or is this a case of the left denouncing Wilson for being no better than a Tory, all the while homosexuality was decriminalised and job security was enshrined in law?

 

As for things you like, well,  Biden's vowed to carry on Obama's fight for a public option on health care. Its hidden in the legalise on his website because health care reform freaks out Democratic voters who seem very susceptible to the Republican myth that any reform will leave that person without any health care, but it includes taking on the drug companies on the ludicrous prices for day to day necessary medicines in the US, continuing the Medicare/Medicaid expansion, and allowing the important of drugs from outside the US which will again decrease the health care costs for millions, and restoring the funding on HIV research that Trump rescinded. (Fucks sake, I didn't even know about that one, is Trump an equal opportunity cunt or something?)

 

He is swivelling quickly in recent weeks to supporting the cancelation of student loan debt (it works differently in the US than from here) that was one of Bernie's big campaign things. Now you wanted proof this would happen in office, but really what you have here is a politician sensing the way the wind is blowing. On the matter of proof, he's also on record and has the history to back it of supporting gun control, introducing basic normal country stuff like background checks on people who buy guns, not allowing them to buy war weaponry online, and not allowing the mentally ill to buy automatics. Crazy policies...

 

 

But other than casually point out the vast differences in the two mens policies - I've deliberately ignored their personal defects to avoid a tit for tat thing here - and pointing out stuff you support that the campaign is starting to back, there's really nothing else we can do.

 

[The Old Crem 3,603]

 

[The Great Cornholio 902]

1 hour ago, The Old Crem said:

 

Good.

[Joey Russ 7,227]

Crem is really trying to find a way for John Edrich to be a hit, isn’t he?  

[The Old Crem 3,603]

58 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

Crem is really trying to find a way for John Edrich to be a hit, isn’t he?  

It's my tip for the October surprise this year.

 

[The Old Crem 3,603]

 

[Charlotte's Controller 195]

So regarding current matters and health of the nation.

 

The USA are currently 13th on the Worldometer deaths per million of population. Does the current policy for well being see this level being maintained ie the 13th  level remaining or is the level anticipated to increase. I would see this as being a matter to influence the polls. Please note that China and Russia do not enter into the discussion as they are further down the list and are not reporting.

[The Great Cornholio 902]

21 hours ago, The Old Crem said:

 

I'm confident Trump has this in the bag. Trump can talk himself out of any criticism the media has of him. Biden will continue to be 'meh' in the eyes of the Democrats. The fact that Biden of all people got the nomination goes to show that the Dems have learned nothing since 2016.

[sewermaintenance 7]

2 hours ago, Kenny McCormick said:

I'm confident Trump has this in the bag. Trump can talk himself out of any criticism the media has of him. Biden will continue to be 'meh' in the eyes of the Democrats. The fact that Biden of all people got the nomination goes to show that the Dems have learned nothing since 2016.

1000% correct son, especially the bolded part.

Democrats all like to think of themselves as "sophisticated" (from the amount of time they spend calling Republicans hicks anyway), so how did they end up with this beat-up second hand car of a candidate?

 

Also, after spending the last 4 years saying everyone who disagrees with them is a "boomer" etc., then they come up with someone who's a few years too old to be even classed as a boomer... priceless.

[gcreptile 10,972]

Nate Silver's people talk about the phenomenon of confidence in a Trump victory as well:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/if-trump-is-down-in-the-polls-why-do-so-many-americans-think-hell-win/

 

I also wonder if the Trump campaign is already manipulating the betting markets as Romney's campaign did in 2012:

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/10/should-presidential-campaigns-spend-more-money-manipulating-intrade/264000/

 

It would be in accordance with his "Say it until it seems true" mode. (He probably didn't do it in 2016 because he didn't really want to win.)

[CoffinLodger 1,248]

I've just found out something that could mean that Joe Biden is destined to win the election, if you believe in astrology and that sort of thing that is.  This is quite spooky actually. On the day of the election on November 3 Joe Biden will be the exact same age, to the day (ie 17 days before his 78th birthday) as Ronald Reagan was the day he left the White House. Reagan is of course the oldest man to be President up till now, unless that is, Biden wins the election ...

 

Also  if he is elected he would be inaugurated 40  years to the day since Reagan was inaugurated.Reagan was the 40th President ...

[Joey Russ 7,227]

6 minutes ago, CoffinLodger said:

I've just found out something that could mean that Joe Biden is destined to win the election, if you believe in astrology and that sort of thing that is.  This is quite spooky actually. On the day of the election on November 3 Joe Biden will be the exact same age, to the day (ie 17 days before his 78th birthday) as Ronald Reagan was the day he left the White House. Reagan is of course the oldest man to be President up till now, unless that is, Biden wins the election ...

 

[Joey Russ 7,227]

Well, Biden is vetting Amy Klobuchar, which is honestly a super predictable pick. Though Biden is vetting others probably, I think Klobuchar is likely to be the pick. I don’t think this is necessarily the best choice though...

 

[Joey Russ 7,227]

On 21/05/2020 at 14:20, Joey Russ said:

Well, Biden is vetting Amy Klobuchar, which is honestly a super predictable pick. Though Biden is vetting others probably, I think Klobuchar is likely to be the pick. I don’t think this is necessarily the best choice though...

 

Looking less likely now: 

I think she would’ve been VP before George Floyd’s death, but now because of the unrest that caused that destroyed her chances. 

[MrWonderful 481]

On 29/05/2020 at 15:02, Joey Russ said:

Looking less likely now: 

I think she would’ve been VP before George Floyd’s death, but now because of the unrest that caused that destroyed her chances. 

I think he was going to pick Harris anyway, but, yes, Klobuchar's chances are pretty much done now.  The obvious ace pick would be Michelle Obama, but with no indication that she would do it (unless this is the Democrats' surprise), Harris seems like the logical choice.  Indeed, she is the clear favorite in betting markets.  

[ThePrematureBurial 224]

I wonder if Trump will repeat George Bush senior's mistake from 1992. 

 

If he doesn't resist the temptation of raising taxes to pay for reconstruction after covid & riots, a fiscally responsible third party candidate like Ross Perot might steal his thunder.

 

 

[Joey Russ 7,227]

I think Trump’s chances of winning is decreasing by the day (but I still wouldn’t count him out given right now he’s instilling fear across the country). Going from the populism that works to very clear fascist tendencies doesn’t really boost your election chances now, does it? 

[gcreptile 10,972]

He's trying to catch that one populist mood that is going to make the masses fall behind him in a "God damn, he's an asshole, but he's right" kind of fashion. But he's so divisive, every voter he loses, is gone for good. He got elected with 46% of the vote, and his approval rating was never really above that. In national polls, he's pretty steadily in the 40-45% range. It's probably just not quite enough to win.

He is trying to appeal to the white middle class in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania - but is also digging his grave in Arizona and North Carolina.

As long as Biden does what he is doing (which is not that much, to be honest), Trump is not able to play his usual cards - which means he's stuck with a piece of cake just not quite enough.

 

But he'll be going all out. This whole act of yesterday reminded me of Mussolini. He'll be going for christian fascism, trying to appeal to fascist elements of the military, the police, and his supporters. I think it's not going to work - the reaction to that photo op was not good for him, luckily, but I would not want to live in America in the next 6 months.

[TQR 14,395]

Trump could only dream of having half the intelligence of fucking Mussolini.

[Joey Russ 7,227]

Well, Trump is trying to say the economy will be back up in the last few months, but given the situations now, I don’t think it’s going to work: 

 

[MrWonderful 481]

Biden became the betting favorite on Thursday, the first time that Trump has not been the favorite since the start of the Democratic debates last year.  

[The Great Cornholio 902]

I'd say that the chances of either of them winning is now level. A Trump win is still very much possible in my eyes. Remember he's done worse, remember that Muslim family whos son died in the military that he made fun of? 

 

If Trump does win then he wont win because of Trump, he will win because of Biden.

[The Great Cornholio 902]

Despite everything that's happened, some polls are showing favour for Trump winning among the black communities. I would still call it level, as many polls show the opposite.

 

https://summit.news/2020/06/05/rasmussen-black-approval-for-trump-surges-to-over-40/

[Joey Russ 7,227]

Rasmussen is extremely dodgy as it has a consistent Republican bias. IE it usually gives Trump a higher approval rating than most polls.