The Great Cornholio 868 Posted June 13 I put in the option of majority/minority governments on the top 4 contenders to make it more interesting. And yes I'm an idiot for putting Lib Dems and Reform in with Labour and Tories... 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TQR 14,329 Posted June 13 Given how everything points overwhelmingly to one outcome, a better poll might've been a numbers-based one; how many seats will Labour/Tories end up with, for example. 3 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Undead In Ohio 155 Posted June 14 Unless we are about to see one of the biggest polling failures of all time or Starmer does something incredibly reprehensible within the next couple of weeks, I do not see any way that Labour will have anything less than majority government. Any tiny chance that the Tories had to divide the government likely ended on the D-Day anniversary. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Spade_Cooley 9,413 Posted June 14 The real winners are going to be the fans. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Commtech Sio Bibble 1,893 Posted June 14 I think the Portsmouth Independents Party has a pretty good chance of a 650 seat majority. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sod's Law 392 Posted June 14 Wouldn't 'who will be the opposition following the election' be a more interesting question? 6 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Deadboy999 171 Posted June 15 Labour big majority, like tories in 2019 but just like them they will screw up in 2-3 years. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bentrovato 1,081 Posted June 15 The only real winners will be the Great British Public, who will have all their futures and dreams and wishes fulfilled. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Great Cornholio 868 Posted June 16 On 15/06/2024 at 13:23, Deadboy999 said: Labour big majority, like tories in 2019 but just like them they will screw up in 2-3 years. Their manifestos arent so different. Labour will win because of the Tories, Labour wont win because of Labour. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Charlotte's Controller 195 Posted June 21 The tories won last time on a fantasy government vote, low taxes, low unemployment, brexit benefits. A Peter principle government lead by a bluffing incompetent clown voted for by an ill informed naive population with no social consciousness or financial awareness. 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sly Ronnie 852 Posted July 2 Right, let's put our heads on the block. Let's guess the final seat numbers. There are 650 but we'll block off Norn Iron as 18 and exclude The Speaker. So 631 to play for. I'll kick things off with a rather cautious prediction: Labour 390 Conservative 157 Liberal Democrat 55 Scottish National Party 21 Plaid Cymru 3 Reform 3 Green 2 Labour Majority 130 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Surprise Demise 69 Posted July 2 Had a dream last night with the Tories on 47 and the Lib Dems on 64. As much as I'd like to see that happen I think we'll get something more like this: Labour 439 Conservative 102 Liberal Democrat 59 Scottish National Party 19 Reform 5 Plaid Cymru 4 Green 2 Independent/Other 1 (possibly Jezza or Galloway) Labour Majority 228 I actually completely forgot the Alba Party was a thing until my postal vote arrived and I learned they were standing in my constituency (Lib Dem-SNP marginal). I'll be interested to see how many votes they manage to siphon as there's definitely a demographic of hardline independence folk dissatisfied with the SNP that probably aren't leftist or environmentalist enough to vote Green. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AstroKat 439 Posted July 2 23 minutes ago, Sly Ronnie said: Right, let's put our heads on the block. Let's guess the final seat numbers. There are 650 but we'll block off Norn Iron as 18 and exclude The Speaker. So 631 to play for. I'll kick things off with a rather cautious prediction: Labour 390 Conservative 157 Liberal Democrat 55 Scottish National Party 21 Plaid Cymru 3 Reform 3 Green 2 Labour Majority 130 I haven't got the confidence to put my head on the block, but these are the kind of seat numbers I'm expecting to see on Thursday. I can't bring myself to believe the projections we've been seeing of the Tories falling below or even close to 100 seats. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sleepiestpeep 136 Posted July 2 Can you tell I'm not taking this very seriously...? Lab - 466 Lib dem - 69 Con - 69 SNP - 16 Ref - 5 Plaid - 3 Green - 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RoverAndOut 4,673 Posted July 2 32 minutes ago, Sleepiestpeep said: Can you tell I'm not taking this very seriously...? Lab - 466 Lib dem - 69 Con - 69 SNP - 16 Ref - 5 Plaid - 3 Green - 3 This was a query on Newscast the other day - what happens if there's a tie for the second party? Disappointingly, they didn't have an answer, as it's never happened before but there are significant issues that need addressing - HM Opposition get more money, more questions, Opposition Day debates, access to a car and so on. Third party doesn't. How would it be decided? Coin toss? Most votes nationally? Doubt it will be an issue, but who knows at this election? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DCI Frank Burnside 3,853 Posted July 3 11 hours ago, RoverAndOut said: This was a query on Newscast the other day - what happens if there's a tie for the second party? Disappointingly, they didn't have an answer, as it's never happened before but there are significant issues that need addressing - HM Opposition get more money, more questions, Opposition Day debates, access to a car and so on. Third party doesn't. How would it be decided? Coin toss? Most votes nationally? Doubt it will be an issue, but who knows at this election? If should be noted that if the above were to happen and Alliance Party picked up even one seat in NI it would probably mean Davey would be LOTO as Alliance have taken the Lib Dem whip previously 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RoverAndOut 4,673 Posted July 3 1 hour ago, DCI Frank Burnside said: If should be noted that if the above were to happen and Alliance Party picked up even one seat in NI it would probably mean Davey would be LOTO as Alliance have taken the Lib Dem whip previously Agreed, but would DUP take the Tory whip to stop that from happening? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DCI Frank Burnside 3,853 Posted July 3 6 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said: Agreed, but would DUP take the Tory whip to stop that from happening? Possibly but there'd be zero benefit in them doing so unlike when the Tories needed their votes over the years as a Govt party. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Great Uncle Bulgaria 1,253 Posted July 3 Given opinion polls invariably underestimate the Tory vote (do you know anyone on social media who admits to voting Tory outside party members?) I think it will be less awful for them than being predicted. something like Labour 365 Tory 198 LD 45 SNP 15 I think Farage will lose and - swayed by the right wing press - enough potential Reform voters will go 'home' to the Tories to ensure the former get no seats at all. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TQR 14,329 Posted July 3 I wouldn't even like to make a prediction any more specific than Labour winning at least 400 seats, with a likelihood of them winning more than they did in 1997 (418), because I'm not just yearning for the Tories to come third behind the Lib Dems, I'm around 20% convinced it could actually happen. I don't think Reform will win more seats than you can count on one hand, I think the Greens will get 3 of their 4 target seats, and the SNP are going to get about the kind of pummelling the polls expect them to. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Philheybrookbay1 247 Posted July 3 Labour 440 Conservative 97 Lib Dem 72 SNP 15 Green 3 Galloway group/corbyn 2 Garage 2 Clacton plus ANO. Think the talking point will be under 100 for Tories. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Commtech Sio Bibble 1,893 Posted July 3 May as well give this a shot Labour - 438 Tory - 105 Lib Dem - 90 SNP - 10 Reform - 4 Green - 2 Other - 0 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Insane 345 Posted July 3 I don’t know much about British politics so just doing this for fun Labour- 455 Lib Dems- 82 Tory- 78 SNP- 11 Reform- 5 Green- 2 Others - 2 (Galloway, Corbyn) 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BuffaloPhil 888 Posted July 3 Labour - 435 Tory - 94 Lib Dem - 79 SNP - 15 Reform - 3 Green - 3 Plaid Cymru - 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
diego 1,940 Posted July 3 2 hours ago, Insane said: I don’t know much about British politics so just doing this for fun the same Labour- 447 Lib Dems- 85 Tory- 74 SNP- 14 Green- 4 Reform-3 Others - 3 (Galloway, Corbyn) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
