Paul Bearer 6,091 Posted October 23 Well, as it’s only a couple of weeks away, I reckon it’s about time we had a prediction game. Its apparently too close to call on the other side of the pond, who do you think will win? Harris or Trump? 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Old Crem 3,572 Posted October 23 I predict Trumo will win and win at least one state he didn’t win in 2016 like Nevada, Minnesota or Virginia. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
theoldlady 2,273 Posted October 23 Trump will win. Many are predicting it will be by a good margin as well. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
En Passant 3,732 Posted October 23 18 minutes ago, The Old Crem said: I predict Trumo will win and win at least one state he didn’t win in 2016 like Nevada, Minnesota or Virginia. Trauma will win if Trump, Trumo, Troma or Profumo or any variation thereof does. I do not now, nor will I ever, understand how 50% or thereabouts (electoral college notwithstanding) of Americans can be this wrong. Sure if you're Musk or some other self interested billionaire, but ordinary folks? Beats me. 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lilham 750 Posted October 23 30 minutes ago, The Old Crem said: I predict Trumo will win and win at least one state he didn’t win in 2016 like Nevada, Minnesota or Virginia. I doubt Minnesota; Harris is ahead by a lot and Walz is the governor of that state. Harris is ahead by a lot in Virginia as well. Razor sharp states are Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Campaign strategy in Texas and Florida are interesting though. Harris is going to Houston this week, indicating that it's gettable? Trump is going to somewhere in Florida, indicating he is losing ground? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Old Crem 3,572 Posted October 23 6 minutes ago, lilham said: I doubt Minnesota; Harris is ahead by a lot and Walz is the governor of that state. Harris is ahead by a lot in Virginia as well. Razor sharp states are Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Campaign strategy in Texas and Florida are interesting though. Harris is going to Houston this week, indicating that it's gettable? Trump is going to somewhere in Florida, indicating he is losing ground? Trump is also going to New York City but I don’t think New York is winnable for him. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lilham 750 Posted October 23 15 minutes ago, The Old Crem said: Trump is also going to New York City but I don’t think New York is winnable for him. I think Madison Square Garden is just because it's such a big iconic arena and he likes grandiose gestures, whereas the others would relate more to the specific state. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sod's Law 433 Posted October 23 Depends how many Maccy D's shifts Trump manages to fill before the election. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ladyfiona 2,558 Posted October 23 All I know is that I don't want Trump to win. 4 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sinbabad 1,073 Posted October 23 1 hour ago, theoldlady said: Trump will win. Many are predicting it will be by a good margin as well. Many were predicting that about Hilary in 2016… Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
prussianblue 999 Posted October 23 Some actual detailed polls and stats to balance out Crem hysteria. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/ Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
maryportfuncity 10,612 Posted October 23 23 minutes ago, prussianblue said: Some actual detailed polls and stats to balance out Crem hysteria. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/ I'd say that's accurate - the only experts I trust are those who say you can't trust the polls because it's so tight and so vicious that those people talking to pollsters can't be trusted. Oddly, BBC did remind us that the pollsters pretty much got it wrong in the last two US elections. Clinton looked good to go eight years back. Basically, there are people voting for Trump who hate him but want more of their own money in their own bank account, other die-hard Republicans who can't stand him and will vote against him thinking a defeat now the best outcome for the political values that informed Republicanism before Trump, anyone sympathetic to the Palestinian cause might desert the Democrats because they see them as selling out on this issue (and typically muslims have gone Democrat in the past), and then there's Harris' problem of being largely unknown until the last few weeks. An absolute melting pot where anything could happen, the nightmare scenario is a Bush/Gore style photo finish that'd tip the country into complete instability, and that could easily happen. 4 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dimreaper 669 Posted October 23 It really is going to come down to North Carolina and Pennsylvania. If Trump wins both, he's back in office. Right now, he is slightly leading in NC, and Pa is too close to call, but a few poll's show him leading. I'm personally predicting a Trump victory in November. Even Nate Silver has him as the favorite at the moment. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
prussianblue 999 Posted October 23 15 minutes ago, dimreaper said: It really is going to come down to North Carolina and Pennsylvania. If Trump wins both, he's back in office. Right now, he is slightly leading in NC, and Pa is too close to call, but a few poll's show him leading. I'm personally predicting a Trump victory in November. Even Nate Silver has him as the favorite at the moment. On that, worth quoting Silver/538: 'Still, a word of caution: You might be tempted to make a big deal about our forecast “flipping” to Trump, but it’s important to remember that a 52-in-100 chance for Trump is not all that different from a 58-in-100 chance for Harris — both are little better than a coin flip for the leading candidate. While Trump has undeniably gained some ground over the past couple weeks, a few good polls for Harris could easily put her back in the “lead” tomorrow. Our overall characterization of the race — that it’s a toss-up — remains unchanged.' 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dimreaper 669 Posted October 23 17 minutes ago, prussianblue said: On that, worth quoting Silver/538: 'Still, a word of caution: You might be tempted to make a big deal about our forecast “flipping” to Trump, but it’s important to remember that a 52-in-100 chance for Trump is not all that different from a 58-in-100 chance for Harris — both are little better than a coin flip for the leading candidate. While Trump has undeniably gained some ground over the past couple weeks, a few good polls for Harris could easily put her back in the “lead” tomorrow. Our overall characterization of the race — that it’s a toss-up — remains unchanged.' I agree that the race is a toss up and could go either way, but of I am asked to choose between the two, it's slightly leaning towards Trump at the moment. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Great Cornholio 898 Posted October 23 I predict Trump will win all swing states. He might very narrowly win Minnesota and New Hampshire, although unlikely. If he wins Minnesota, he will be the first Republican to flip it red in 50+ years. In addition to that, if Trump wins this election then he will be the first US president to serve two non-consecutive terms in over 130 years (the last being Grover Cleveland). 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MortalCaso 1,618 Posted October 23 Unfortunately, it seems as though Trump will win. Democrats take the House + Republicans take the Senate. Trump wins NC/GA/AZ. PA being a true coin flip will go Trump's way. Rest go Harris. Trump will declare victory prematurely which complicates things. No true winner declared until the weekend. If seems as though they learned nothing from 2016 with unjustly selecting a party nominee. Really can't stand the idea of 4 more years under Trump. Hope I am wrong! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
La Tombe 352 Posted October 23 As a Frenchman.....I don't understand how the American can be satisfied by the functioning of their presidential election. There are many thing to reconsider in the US elections....if the result of the election depends on the States...why the votes of those who voted for the loosing party in the state can not be represented in the electoral college.....For example, the voice of a Democrat voter in Texas is not counted at the end, because Texas is a Red State and the same for a Republican in California, his voice is not counted at the end because it's a Blue State. To sum up, the result of the presidential election of this country home of more than 300 millions people and 50 states depends on the decisions of thousands of voters in just 7 swing states....what a nonsense. The "Winner takes all" system is a completly nonsense. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
La Tombe 352 Posted October 24 6 hours ago, Paul Bearer said: Well, as it’s only a couple of weeks away, I reckon it’s about time we had a prediction game. Its apparently too close to call on the other side of the pond, who do you think will win? Harris or Trump? Trump will win this election by gaining the electoral college and Harris will win the popular vote....the same thing that happened in 2016. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Insane 349 Posted October 24 As an American, you’re all wrong, the polls that are being put in are majority Republican backed polls which is why it’s so close all of a sudden, I’m personally voting for the first time and I’m voting Harris. 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MortalCaso 1,618 Posted October 24 36 minutes ago, Insane said: As an American, you’re all wrong, the polls that are being put in are majority Republican backed polls which is why it’s so close all of a sudden, I’m personally voting for the first time and I’m voting Harris. This is just incorrect. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tracy 2,378 Posted October 24 I'd probably click Harris if there was a poll, but I don't really have a strong take either way. On paper, Donald Trump has an easier path to victory (he just has to maintain his lead in Arizona and Georgia, hope he squeaks it out in Nevada, and then carrying one of WI/MI/PA wins him the race). Still, despite the fact that he's more popular than ever, he's still Donald Trump, and the race isn't really looking locked-in anywhere. As I was typing this, Marist dropped a poll that has Trump and Harris tied in Georgia and Trump up by one in Arizona/two in North Carolina, so the dominoes could easily fall against him (and vice versa). I don't really think either term will be that eventful. If Trump wins, he'll become the oldest president ever, and he isn't looking his best as of late. He could easily have a Democratic majority in the House and a 51-49 Senate, a lot more precarious for him in than in 2016 where he could do whatever because he came in with a trifecta and the GOP was sure to gain senate seats in 2018. A Harris win on the other hand probably just means four years of lame duck quacking thanks to the GOP senate. Pretty exciting stuff. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
msc 18,390 Posted October 24 Looking at the demographics in the early voting, unless things turn round in a hurry I think it's going to be a pretty easy Trump win. That said I am disagreeing with the Lichtman keys, the Consumer Confidence Index and the Misery index here which all favour Harris. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
odeon 88 Posted October 24 Allan lichtman says kamala, so... 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
prussianblue 999 Posted October 24 I find it interesting that Harris being a woman seems to have no impact in the discourse around this election. It's like all the excitement and symbolism of a female candidate was burned up through the Hillary Clinton experience. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
