Boris Johnson

[Bibliogryphon 9,581]

7 minutes ago, TQR said:

This is most likely, I reckon. But even if they did find a new leader they can agree on, the next GE is gonna be tricky unless something major happens in their favour.

 

This is how polls translate to GE performance at the moment, this with a Tory leader who hasn’t yet met the VoNC threshold and a Labour leader who’s not having the most stable time either:

 

 

On those figures Labour might be able to govern without the SNP but with the LDs/PC/Greens

 

However they might do better on the night depending on the mood of the country

[msc 18,466]

9 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

But with Iain Duncan Smith it was a case of once the letters were in he felt that he was electorally damaged and went anyway

 

For the Conservative party it is a case of what is the worst possible outcome both in terms of individuals losing their seats, potential for future promotion and the prospect of a Labour Government

 

Which shows you how rubbish IDS was! 

 

9 minutes ago, TQR said:

This is most likely, I reckon. But even if they did find a new leader they can agree on, the next GE is gonna be tricky unless something major happens in their favour.

 

This is how polls translate to GE performance at the moment, this with a Tory leader who hasn’t yet met the VoNC threshold and a Labour leader who’s not having the most stable time either:

 

 

More stable than year ago, mind you!

 

There is a recurring theme from by-elections and the locals, which is roughly a Tory to Labour swing of about 10 points, and a Tory to Lib Dem swing of over 15 points. If that, and the return of the Lib/Lab voter alliance, holds up at a general election... The YouGov MRP polling model currently has the Tories being wiped out with bigger swings than that, and I note it was quite accurate at the last two elections.

 

With all that said, two years till the next election. A lot of "events" to quote Harold MacMillan, to turn up in the intervening period, no doubt...

[TQR 14,395]

8 minutes ago, msc said:

 

Which shows you how rubbish IDS was! 

 

 

More stable than year ago, mind you!

 

There is a recurring theme from by-elections and the locals, which is roughly a Tory to Labour swing of about 10 points, and a Tory to Lib Dem swing of over 15 points. If that, and the return of the Lib/Lab voter alliance, holds up at a general election... The YouGov MRP polling model currently has the Tories being wiped out with bigger swings than that, and I note it was quite accurate at the last two elections.

 

A LAB-LIB-GRN progressive alliance would be a complete carpet bombing for the Tories, and they know it; Dowden sent Starmer a desperate letter when a couple of Lab councillor candidates stood down in favour of the Lib Dems in one particular constituency.

 

Also, Andrea Leadsom has written something that she hopes will save her seat when said GE comes about.

 

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

26 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

But with Iain Duncan Smith it was a case of once the letters were in he felt that he was electorally damaged and went anyway

 

For the Conservative party it is a case of what is the worst possible outcome both in terms of individuals losing their seats, potential for future promotion and the prospect of a Labour Government

 

In Chris Mason's piece on the BBC website, he quoted the critics' belief that Johnson is so shameless that a poor performance in the confidence vote wouldn't be enough to see him resign. Even if the margin were close, say a matter of votes scraping over the line, we'd be back in 'Let's move on' territory. (A reminder May got 66% in her no confidence vote, a decisive, if not comprehensive, victory). We all know that's true, he wouldn't go quietly if he won the no confidence vote, how ever narrowly. But name me a Tory leader who's had a long, happy tenure after facing a no confidence vote...

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

28 minutes ago, TQR said:

A LAB-LIB-GRN progressive alliance would be a complete carpet bombing for the Tories, and they know it; Dowden sent Starmer a desperate letter when a couple of Lab councillor candidates stood down in favour of the Lib Dems in one particular constituency.

 

Also, Andrea Leadsom has written something that she hopes will save her seat when said GE comes about.

 

 

Seems to be missing a key sentence at the bottom. It's all his fault BUT....

[maryportfuncity 10,646]

55 minutes ago, msc said:

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the criticism and demands for John Major to resign lumber on and on too, until eventually Major called his own leadership contest. And then, all of the rivals just sort of got routed, and the Tories continued to sleep walk to electoral death?

 

Curious to see if history repeats. This struggle to reach 54 letters doesn't strike you that there's 170 Tory MPs out there who want Boris Johnson gone.

 

It took ages for them to get the numbers against Theresa May, and then she won the Vote of Confidence easily, iirc...

 

 

Similarities but the difference that time was Major had confounded expectations with his win and was blocking a few big beasts - notably Heseltine - who packed a sense of entitlement having considered that Thatcher had outstayed her usefulness. For better or worse that generation perceived themselves as on a mission and morally right, basically demonising the working classes and leaving everything to the market. Bojo, by contrast, hasn't really got a grip on a clear message so the dissent is all over the place from idealists who think he's abandoned Conservatism to the blind panic of many who think a Lab-Lib-SNP shut out might result in a changed voting system that'd make Conservative majority governments permanent history. 

 

I mean, apart from shitting ourselves on the filling station forecourt and struggling to eat, we're living in interesting times, eh?

[Bibliogryphon 9,581]

46 minutes ago, TQR said:

A LAB-LIB-GRN progressive alliance would be a complete carpet bombing for the Tories, and they know it; Dowden sent Starmer a desperate letter when a couple of Lab councillor candidates stood down in favour of the Lib Dems in one particular constituency.

 

Also, Andrea Leadsom has written something that she hopes will save her seat when said GE comes about.

 

 

It might just work - the entire county of Northamptonshire has no Labour MPs and is not really red wall territory

Things will be going very badly indeed if she loses her seat

 

However in 1997 Blair did turn most of the county red including Kettering where Phil Sawford won who was only really selected as the party did not expect to win the seat

[msc 18,466]

11 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

 

It might just work - the entire county of Northamptonshire has no Labour MPs and is not really red wall territory

Things will be going very badly indeed if she loses her seat

 

However in 1997 Blair did turn most of the county red including Kettering where Phil Sawford won who was only really selected as the party did not expect to win the seat

 

Northamptonshire - the two Northampton seats and mayyybe Corby (on a bad night for the Tories) could be at risk, but the Leadsom seats are safe as houses. 

 

If they were losing Kettering it would be a really fun night for us a terrible night for the Conservatives.

 

Although lots is said about the Red Wall. The "blue wall" seems to be mostly ignored, and there's 66 Tory seats heavily endangered by Lib Dems in the south on the swings the Lib Dems have been getting off the Tories in recent votes in that part of the world.

[YoungWillz 21,044]

Get Exit Done!!

[Bibliogryphon 9,581]

@maryportfuncity I see the Conservative MP for Carlisle has submitted a letter to the 1922 committee

[Grim Up North 3,725]

9 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

@maryportfuncity I see the Conservative MP for Carlisle has submitted a letter to the 1922 committee

 

Well done John - he's actually a very nice man and still practices as a solicitor (I don't vote for him). Although you have to question if people with a narrow majority like him are motivated by what's happened or the requirement to try and save their own seat. 

[msc 18,466]

2 minutes ago, Grim Up North said:

 

Well done John - he's actually a very nice man and still practices as a solicitor (I don't vote for him). Although you have to question if people with a narrow majority like him are motivated by what's happened or the requirement to try and save their own seat. 

 

I just want to note that John Stevenson of Carlisle has an 8000 majority and would need nearly a 10% swing to defeat, and he's safer than the Corby seat mentioned above. 

 

Exactly how fucked are we assuming this government is? 

[Bibliogryphon 9,581]

3 minutes ago, Grim Up North said:

 

Well done John - he's actually a very nice man and still practices as a solicitor (I don't vote for him). Although you have to question if people with a narrow majority like him are motivated by what's happened or the requirement to try and save their own seat. 

 

To quote Cat from Red Dwarf

 

"That question does not even deserve an answer"

 

When asked which was more important his dinner or Lister's life

[msc 18,466]

Although to be fair to @Grim Up North Labour did trounce the Tories in the locals in that area this month, but I believe the Tory vote held better in Carlisle and it was in Copeland and Workington that Labour murdered them?

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

 

 

 

[Bibliogryphon 9,581]

12 minutes ago, DCI Frank Burnside said:

 

 

 

 

Just a bit concerned who Peter Bone is talking to on a working day morning at the embankment in Wellingborough which has a 'certain reputation' as some might say

[maryportfuncity 10,646]

14 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

 

Just a bit concerned who Peter Bone is talking to on a working day morning at the embankment in Wellingborough which has a 'certain reputation' as some might say

 

 

A reputation for "Boning" perchance? Just askin'

[Grim Up North 3,725]

41 minutes ago, msc said:

 

I just want to note that John Stevenson of Carlisle has an 8000 majority and would need nearly a 10% swing to defeat, and he's safer than the Corby seat mentioned above. 

 

Exactly how fucked are we assuming this government is? 

 

Ah I had forgotten he had done so well last time but if you go to previous non Brexit elections it was closer and Carlisle was a Labour constituency from 1964 through to 2010 so not that fanciful it would go back to Labour.

 

 

[msc 18,466]

36 minutes ago, Grim Up North said:

 

Ah I had forgotten he had done so well last time but if you go to previous non Brexit elections it was closer and Carlisle was a Labour constituency from 1964 through to 2010 so not that fanciful it would go back to Labour.

 

 

Oh no, fully understandable. I just think under the recent map though that if labour won Carlisle next time, it'd be a scenario they were pushing for an overall majority.

[Cruyff's Turn 11]

To add to the woes of one Mr.Tubs de Pfeffel the rumour mill is saying that the third Mrs,J has drawn stumps and gorn orf with Mr. Zacharia Goldsmug. Apparently a super injunction is in place.

[maryportfuncity 10,646]

13 minutes ago, Cruyff's Turn said:

To add to the woes of one Mr.Tubs de Pfeffel the rumour mill is saying that the third Mrs,J has drawn stumps and gorn orf with Mr. Zacharia Goldsmug. Apparently a super injunction is in place.

 

 

Which place exactly, and are the batteries fully charged?

[maryportfuncity 10,646]

1 hour ago, Cruyff's Turn said:

To add to the woes of one Mr.Tubs de Pfeffel the rumour mill is saying that the third Mrs,J has drawn stumps and gorn orf with Mr. Zacharia Goldsmug. Apparently a super injunction is in place.

 

 

Another plausible tale doing the rounds is that the tipping point with the 1922 Committee has already been reached but they're delaying the news until after the weekend's festivities

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

Remember Lord Geidt? The PM's standards and ethics guy who BoJo lied to about who paid for the Downing Street wallpaper?

 

His latest ruling is that there's a legitimate question as to whether the PM broke the Ministerial Code having received a fine and says he must explain. Johnson, unsurprisingly, says he's already explained... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61653755

[msc 18,466]

13 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said:

Remember Lord Geidt?

 

 

Sure, pretty decent villain back in the day.

 

Pity the Geidt.

 

No, sorry, Gelth. But as effective.

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

4 minutes ago, msc said:

Sure, pretty decent villain back in the day.

Pity the Geidt.

No, sorry, Gelth. But as effective.

 

Starring Charles Dickens and Gwen Cooper's great great grandma.