Boris Johnson

[msc 18,437]

1 minute ago, Bibliogryphon said:

 

Yes there is some confusion between all the different types of confidence votes that can go on

 

In essence this is purely a Conservative Party matter in that if he loses he will have lost confidence of the Parliamentary Conservative Party and will need to step down but he will remain Prime Minister until his successor is elected

 

In 1979 James Callaghan lost a parliamentary vote of confidence and was required to call an election this happened because he was leading a minority government like May was between 2017 & 2019

 

IDS only went so quickly because no-one stood against Michael Howard for the leadership

 

Ah IDS lost in October but held on until early November when Michael Howard was anointed successor. I should have Googled that. So yes, Boris Johnson remains Tory leader until his successor is named, and if this lot avoid a full on bitch fight I will be stunned. 

 

But again, no idea if the PM can call an election in those circumstances.

[maryportfuncity 10,642]

10 minutes ago, msc said:

Even if Boris Johnson lost tonight (best bet imo is he wins but with hobbled authority ala May), he is still Prime Minister until he can hand the job to another person, like Brown, Cameron, May etc. Even if he is no longer leader of the Tory party from that moment on (and I'm fuzzy on the exact bit for the Tories, iirc IDS was gone instantly from losing the vote).

 

If he lost the Tory leadership, but was still PM, I think there's nothing in the rules preventing him attempting to call an election, unless the Queen says no. (Though what with her Stage IV cancer, do you think she wants to die under a Boris Johnson premiership? Nah!) 

 

Its untested waters though as no one has lost a confidence vote and called an election to try and save their job before. We've had elections because *governments* lose votes of confidence, but never (afaik) for an individual PM.

 

His former aides say Boris Johnson would need removed kicking and screaming and now I have images of him losing an immediate election, and refusing to leave Downing Street until the Queen sends the army in to drag him out on live TV. Just a passing daydream...

 

 

Can't see the passing daydream coming to fruition but Boris' track record of bending the rules - prorogue of parliament, lessening the severity of punishment for misleading parliament, ignoring the Good Friday Agreement in Brexit fallout - all has the common theme of sacrificing stability for short-term personal gain. If he hobbles on damaged and calls an election he could leave his party badly damaged and out of power. A more realistic dream being - as posted above - that the incoming administration brings about voting change in such as way as to make Conservative majority governments a near impossibility going forward. 

 

I'm assuming none of those currently Tweeting support for Bojo have been asked to comment on that scenario

[TQR 14,385]

15 minutes ago, Gooseberry Crumble said:

You mean dicks?

I wouldn’t dream of calling Johnson a dick, or indeed anything remotely appealing 

[msc 18,437]

10 minutes ago, maryportfuncity said:

 

 

Can't see the passing daydream coming to fruition but Boris' track record of bending the rules - prorogue of parliament, lessening the severity of punishment for misleading parliament, ignoring the Good Friday Agreement in Brexit fallout - all has the common theme of sacrificing stability for short-term personal gain. If he hobbles on damaged and calls an election he could leave his party badly damaged and out of power. A more realistic dream being - as posted above - that the incoming administration brings about voting change in such as way as to make Conservative majority governments a near impossibility going forward. 

 

I'm assuming none of those currently Tweeting support for Bojo have been asked to comment on that scenario

 

Oh it was utterly fictional, of course.

 

Regarding changing First Past the Post, this often gets mooted during Tory government. Then Labour ousts them with a majority Labour government and suddenly aren't so keen on the idea! (They may find a bigger appetite for it as a minority government but I still think there's a few years till the next election unless proven otherwise!)

 

What Boris Johnson has done is seemingly unite the DL forum - I've never seen so much agreement on a political subject from all sides of the political spectrum on here! All it needed was pure contempt for a man! 

[Toast 16,130]

26 minutes ago, msc said:

Its untested waters though as no one has lost a confidence vote and called an election to try and save their job before.

 

Sounds like just the sort of thing Boris would do.

[msc 18,437]

3 minutes ago, Toast said:

 

Sounds like just the sort of thing Boris would do.

 

Sort of mutual assured destruction.

 

We've never had someone so mendacious as PM before (and lord knows, some of his successors have given it a really good shot!) so yeah, possibly. 

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,337]

1 minute ago, msc said:

 

Sort of mutual assured destruction.

 

We've never had someone so mendacious as PM before (and lord knows, some of his successors have given it a really good shot!) so yeah, possibly. 

You mean predecessors I take it?

[maryportfuncity 10,642]

6 minutes ago, msc said:

 

Oh it was utterly fictional, of course.

 

Regarding changing First Past the Post, this often gets mooted during Tory government. Then Labour ousts them with a majority Labour government and suddenly aren't so keen on the idea! (They may find a bigger appetite for it as a minority government but I still think there's a few years till the next election unless proven otherwise!)

 

What Boris Johnson has done is seemingly unite the DL forum - I've never seen so much agreement on a political subject from all sides of the political spectrum on here! All it needed was pure contempt for a man! 

 

 

The big curve ball here - though - is Scotland, loads of pragmatic voters up there who vote SNP but wouldn't neccessarily vote to leave in a referendum, they just like SNP policies left of Starmer, right of Jezza. If Labour can't get them back on side they can't command comfortable majorities in parliament and if they face a small majority and growing unpopularity with the danger of another decade or more in the wildnerness once voted out...

 

Changing the voting system might look like a practical solution and might - in any case - be forced on a small majority government by the Lib Dems and SNP

[msc 18,437]

14 minutes ago, Gooseberry Crumble said:

You mean predecessors I take it?

 

Yes! It's been a long day but I wont edit it due to it being an amusing typo.

 

13 minutes ago, maryportfuncity said:

 

 

The big curve ball here - though - is Scotland, loads of pragmatic voters up there who vote SNP but wouldn't neccessarily vote to leave in a referendum, they just like SNP policies left of Starmer, right of Jezza. If Labour can't get them back on side they can't command comfortable majorities in parliament and if they face a small majority and growing unpopularity with the danger of another decade or more in the wildnerness once voted out...

 

Changing the voting system might look like a practical solution and might - in any case - be forced on a small majority government by the Lib Dems and SNP

 

I've bored everyone on Scottish politics before not that long ago but in short, I still think there's a fairly decent pragmatic voter block here would be open to voting to boot out the Westminster Tories, so to speak! (Not a vast number of seats, maybe 10 at the uppermost, but in that situation, every vote counts. Plus the Tories currently have about 20 seats in Scotland and Wales which they might struggle without...)

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

1 hour ago, msc said:

Even if Boris Johnson lost tonight (best bet imo is he wins but with hobbled authority ala May), he is still Prime Minister until he can hand the job to another person, like Brown, Cameron, May etc. Even if he is no longer leader of the Tory party from that moment on (and I'm fuzzy on the exact bit for the Tories, iirc IDS was gone instantly from losing the vote).

 

If he lost the Tory leadership, but was still PM, I think there's nothing in the rules preventing him attempting to call an election, unless the Queen says no. (Though what with her Stage IV cancer, do you think she wants to die under a Boris Johnson premiership? Nah!) 

 

Its untested waters though as no one has lost a confidence vote and called an election to try and save their job before. We've had elections because *governments* lose votes of confidence, but never (afaik) for an individual PM.

 

His former aides say Boris Johnson would need removed kicking and screaming and now I have images of him losing an immediate election, and refusing to leave Downing Street until the Queen sends the army in to drag him out on live TV. Just a passing daydream...

 

Sorry for being late to the party on this (you know, a whole HOUR! ) but while I don't disagree with any of your analysis regarding the procedures should he lose I do think you've missed one thing (and we are firmly in the realms of political thriller novels by now).

 

Say Johnson loses the no confidence vote tonight and announces he's going to try and call an election, he won't be able to do that until tomorrow anyway (really? You're going to disturb the Queen at 10pm at night?). In this scenario, he would indeed remain PM until a new Tory leader is installed but ONLY if he commands the confidence of the House of Commons. He has a majority of 80-odd, so it would need 40 or so Tories to join the opposition parties to vote down the government (and more than 50 have publicly said he should no longer be in office). In a choice between voting against their government and losing their seats, I could see an emergency vote of confidence in the government tomorrow in this scenario, which would sound more dramatic than it would be.

 

Assuming the rebel Tories were satisfied to appoint Deputy PM Raab as acting PM until a new leader is appointed, then a new government could be formed that commanded the support of a majority of MPs and Raab would be asked to form a government and Johnson would be out on his ear without an election being called. A new leader would then be elected in due course and succeed Raab as PM until the next election. The curveball in that would be if the public demanded a say on Boris's future, egged on by Mad Nad and her crusaders. Then we'd be back in "Parliament ignoring the will of the people" territory a la 2018.

[msc 18,437]

Btw, am told by someone who understands these things better than I do,  that a Prime Minister who lost a VoC like tonights vote would not have the parliamentary power to call an early election as speculated earlier. I bow to those with better knowledge of the process!

[Toast 16,130]

9 minutes ago, msc said:

Btw, am told by someone who understands these things better than I do,  that a Prime Minister who lost a VoC like tonights vote would not have the parliamentary power to call an early election as speculated earlier. I bow to those with better knowledge of the process!

 

What if he just squeaks through, though?

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

Just now, Toast said:

What if he just squeaks through, though?

 

Can do what he wants if he wins, whether by 1 or 100.

[msc 18,437]

4 minutes ago, Toast said:

 

What if he just squeaks through, though?

 

What Rover says.

 

If he gets.. 180 or more, he's safe in the job, but I doubt it's going to get any better for him tbh.

 

 

3 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said:

 

Can do what he wants if he wins, whether by 1 or 100.

 

[maryportfuncity 10,642]

Off to cook whilst Mrs MPFC sets about preparing a room for some minor alterations. 

 

I'll park this little toe tapper here

 

 

[Sean 6,313]

136 Public backers as voting opens.

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

Another pearler from another basket case posing as a Tory MP. You only need to look at those backing him publicly to see what an absolute train wreck this government is. They live on a different planet.

 

[msc 18,437]

4 minutes ago, Sean said:

136 Public backers as voting opens.

 

Oh he'll almost certainly "win" this vote, but as a famous person once said, he who wins shall lose. Which feels apt here.

 

I say famous person, I mean Jon Pertwee's Doctor Who. 

[msc 18,437]

2 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said:

Another pearler from another basket case posing as a Tory MP. You only need to look at those backing him to see what an absolute train wreck this government is. They live on a different planet.

 

And she's only in parliament because her (now ex) husband (whom she supported publicly through his trial) got jailed for sexually assaulting a few women.

[Toast 16,130]

20 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said:

 

Can do what he wants if he wins, whether by 1 or 100.

 

Oh yes, I know, but would he call an election? 

[Sean 6,313]

5 minutes ago, msc said:

 

Oh he'll almost certainly "win" this vote, but as a famous person once said, he who wins shall lose. Which feels apt here.

 

I say famous person, I mean Jon Pertwee's Doctor Who. 

Oh he will win but it doesn`t look like it will be a big majority

[Toast 16,130]

5 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said:

Another pearler from another basket case posing as a Tory MP. You only need to look at those backing him publicly to see what an absolute train wreck this government is. They live on a different planet.

 

 

Isn't she the Dover MP who thought the crowd were booing P&O Ferries and joined in, only they were actually booing her?

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

3 minutes ago, Toast said:

Oh yes, I know, but would he call an election? 

 

Ah, I see. I suspect not immediately, but if it's close and the noise doesn't quieten down I can see it being threatened and then being triggered if he feels his current position is untenable amid the noise, for the reasons I stated earlier: either he wins and gets a new 5-year mandate or he loses and takes some of those whinging with him.

 

1 minute ago, Toast said:

Isn't she the Dover MP who thought the crowd were booing P&O Ferries and joined in, only they were actually booing her?

 

Yes, yes she is. So many claims to fame has our Natalie. 

[Sean 6,313]

Theresa May has turned up for the vote in a ball gown.

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]