The Ukraine Crisis

[MortalCaso 1,629]

9 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

I'm so distracted by the Russian Security Council meeting right now. I think they're going to recognize the "Luhansk" and "Donezk people's Republic" in 30 minutes.

Shit will hit the fan.

As noted by some others via Twitter, the meeting was pre-recorded.

 

I can't see a reason for them blasting this all over Russian media/TV unless invasion was imminent.

[gcreptile 10,978]

36 minutes ago, MortalCaso said:

As noted by some others via Twitter, the meeting was pre-recorded.

 

I can't see a reason for them blasting this all over Russian media/TV unless invasion was imminent.

Yes, I guess Russia wanted the audience of a "live" coverage to spread the arguments. The "decision" will come later today though.

 

Hottest take I've seen so far comes, not totally surprising, from "Dilbert" creator Scott Adams:

 

[prussianblue 1,038]

Looks like we're rapidly heading for the second point of my 5-stage guess for how things will develop, with the recognition of the breakaway republics as independent states.

Also seems like their minds are already reaching for the fifth stage, formal annexation. There's just the mere formality of a war to get to that point!

[MortalCaso 1,629]

Putin to give a speech to the nation very soon. Within the next 25-30 minutes.

 

This should be the start...

 

 

[prussianblue 1,038]

Putin has reported notified Macron and Scholz in advance that he'll be recognising the independence of the breakaway republics.

[The Old Crem 3,605]

3 hours ago, gcreptile said:

I'm so distracted by the Russian Security Council meeting right now. I think they're going to recognize the "Luhansk" and "Donezk people's Republic" in 30 minutes.

Shit will hit the fan.

Nuclear war by April imo

[gcreptile 10,978]

Yeah, breaking news here in Germany. Putin told chancellor Scholz of the decision. So yeah, immediately after the Olympic Games. I guess troops will move in tonight. They will be the separatists (Russian operatives) who left yesterday, probably to get equipped.

Putin will claim to have kept his word, because Luhansk and Donetsk are not part of Ukraine, according to his own definition. 

[The Old Crem 3,605]

4 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

Yeah, breaking news here in Germany. Putin told chancellor Scholz of the decision. So yeah, immediately after the Olympic Games. I guess troops will move in tonight. They will be the separatists (Russian operatives) who left yesterday, probably to get equipped.

Putin will claim to have kept his word, because Luhansk and Donetsk are not part of Ukraine, according to his own definition. 

WW3 has started. 
 

 

[gcreptile 10,978]

3 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

Nuclear war by April imo

If I had to guess, this will lead to a tabula rasa situation. The old agreements are dead. NATO will expand and include a westernized Ukraine. Finland will also join. There will be very clear borders, but Russia will collapse in the mid-future, unless they are willing to get under some kind of Chinese bailout umbrella.

[prussianblue 1,038]

6 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

Nuclear war by April imo

 

Get a grip. Nobody is firing nukes over Ukraine. The west makes all this bluster, but nobody is going to risk the safety of the human race over control of the Donbas.

[MortalCaso 1,629]

Just now, gcreptile said:

Yeah, breaking news here in Germany. Putin told chancellor Scholz of the decision. So yeah, immediately after the Olympic Games. I guess troops will move in tonight. They will be the separatists (Russian operatives) who left yesterday, probably to get equipped.

Putin will claim to have kept his word, because Luhansk and Donetsk are not part of Ukraine, according to his own definition. 

Breaking news in U.S as well (CNN/FOX/etc.)

Still waiting on Putin, about 20 minutes late now.

 

Key things to point out.

1. In the security meeting earlier it slipped that they plan to admit these regions into Russia (Similar to Crimea)

2. There was talks in this meeting of expanding the separatist held regions to pre-2014 levels, which is much larger and currently under Ukrainian control.

 

#1 was expected as @prussianblue noted earlier. #2 is quite striking and I'm a bit surprised that they are considering it. If they do indeed take that much land from Ukraine, expect the capital to be next (at least a new government).

[Drewsky1211 4,754]

2 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

WW3 has started. 
 

 

I think you're overhyping the situation.

[prussianblue 1,038]

1 minute ago, MortalCaso said:

Breaking news in U.S as well (CNN/FOX/etc.)

Still waiting on Putin, about 20 minutes late now.

 

Key things to point out.

1. In the security meeting earlier it slipped that they plan to admit these regions into Russia (Similar to Crimea)

2. There was talks in this meeting of expanding the separatist held regions to pre-2014 levels, which is much larger and currently under Ukrainian control.

 

#1 was expected as @prussianblue noted earlier. #2 is quite striking and I'm a bit surprised that they are considering it. If they do indeed take that much land from Ukraine, expect the capital to be next (at least a new government).

 

I fully expected them to want to expand to the full territory of the two oblasts. You can't really recognise them as independent if you don't also recognise them in their entirety. 

 

The thing with Kyiv is that it isn't in a Russophone part of the country, so taking it would really only be for the purposes of regime change, not a nationalist land-grab.

[The Old Crem 3,605]

4 minutes ago, prussianblue said:

 

I fully expected them to want to expand to the full territory of the two oblasts. You can't really recognise them as independent if you don't also recognise them in their entirety. 

 

The thing with Kyiv is that it isn't in a Russophone part of the country, so taking it would really only be for the purposes of regime change, not a nationalist land-grab.

It also be a lot harder to control long term. In the areas where a lot of people are Russophone that’s easier. 

[prussianblue 1,038]

Russophone population according to the 2001 census, so fair scope for it being out of date and obviously not reflecting the impact of the war. Despite that, Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk are definitely the standouts and give an indication of the stark differences, especially compared to the low single figures in the west.

[TQR 14,398]

18 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

WW3 has started. 

 

25 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

Nuclear war by April imo

Oh shushie you hysterical mess, you’re sounding a lot like Cecilia right now.

[MortalCaso 1,629]

Putin is currently giving his speech, it is....interesting to say the least.

 

 

Not good to be in Eastern/Southern Ukraine at all right now

[gcreptile 10,978]

Putin is half-delusional in his speech, "Lenin created Ukraine, so if you Ukranians don't like communism, you are no longer Ukraine and belong to Russia" etc...

 

Well, I still remember reading Francis Fukuyama's "Clash of Cultures" (oh, those were the days...). His best prediction was that the Ukraine would basically split in two parts, based on the map above. Though the map actually shows that the majority-Russian area is only about 20% of the country. But yeah, West Ukraine once belonged to the Habsburg empire and is thoroughly European, East Ukraine is culturally different.

 

(Fukuyama's other predictions were not that successful. He predicted that Japan would want to join China's sphere of influence, for example.)

[The Old Crem 3,605]

35 minutes ago, TQR said:

 

Oh shushie you hysterical mess, you’re sounding a lot like Cecilia right now.

Putin has hinted he might use nukes soon.

[prussianblue 1,038]

31 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

Putin is half-delusional in his speech, "Lenin created Ukraine, so if you Ukranians don't like communism, you are no longer Ukraine and belong to Russia" etc...

 

Well, I still remember reading Francis Fukuyama's "Clash of Cultures" (oh, those were the days...). His best prediction was that the Ukraine would basically split in two parts, based on the map above. Though the map actually shows that the majority-Russian area is only about 20% of the country. But yeah, West Ukraine once belonged to the Habsburg empire and is thoroughly European, East Ukraine is culturally different.

 

(Fukuyama's other predictions were not that successful. He predicted that Japan would want to join China's sphere of influence, for example.)

 

While some of it is stretching matters a bit, there are points where he has good grounds. For example, the Ukrainian government HAS marginalised the Russian language, despite it being the mother tongue of a sizeable chunk of the population. 

[Joey Russ 7,228]

7 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

Putin has hinted he might use nukes soon.

 

[prussianblue 1,038]

Perhaps the Queen will succumb to cancer caused by fallout from the nuclear war?

[ladyfiona 2,588]

Let Putin have Ukraine - it means he has to deal with the bullshit regarding Chernobyl and the payout to victims. We need to hope he doesn't nuke anywhere near it unless we want another power plant disaster.

[arghton 6,749]

I think, hope this'll be over soon and Putin, his Central Asian friends and Lukashenko won't still be clinging on to power in 5 years

[prussianblue 1,038]

That's the peacekeeping troops moving in now.