By-Election Bingo

[Toast 16,144]

I think the idea of a lone nutter coming up to an MP on the street and stabbing and/or shooting them has always seemed a step too far for contemplation. This has shattered that belief.

 

Always a possibility with a disgruntled (and/or unbalanced) constituent. There was this, back in 2000.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2000/jan/29/uk.politicalnews1

 

An MP's assistant was stabbed to death yesterday as he tried to protect the Liberal Democrat MP Nigel Jones from an attacker who stormed his constituency office in Cheltenham armed with a sword.

[maryportfuncity 10,647]

 

I think the idea of a lone nutter coming up to an MP on the street and stabbing and/or shooting them has always seemed a step too far for contemplation. This has shattered that belief.

 

Always a possibility with a disgruntled (and/or unbalanced) constituent. There was this, back in 2000.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2000/jan/29/uk.politicalnews1

 

An MP's assistant was stabbed to death yesterday as he tried to protect the Liberal Democrat MP Nigel Jones from an attacker who stormed his constituency office in Cheltenham armed with a sword.

 

 

 

I've run into some politicos sans security in London including Roy Hattersley years ago not long after he'd ceased his stint as deputy leader of the Labour party. He was browsing in a book shop just off Charing Cross Road, struck me then how vulnerable he and his kind might be.

[msc 18,476]

 

 

I think the idea of a lone nutter coming up to an MP on the street and stabbing and/or shooting them has always seemed a step too far for contemplation. This has shattered that belief.

 

Always a possibility with a disgruntled (and/or unbalanced) constituent. There was this, back in 2000.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2000/jan/29/uk.politicalnews1

 

An MP's assistant was stabbed to death yesterday as he tried to protect the Liberal Democrat MP Nigel Jones from an attacker who stormed his constituency office in Cheltenham armed with a sword.

 

 

 

I've run into some politicos sans security in London including Roy Hattersley years ago not long after he'd ceased his stint as deputy leader of the Labour party. He was browsing in a book shop just off Charing Cross Road, struck me then how vulnerable he and his kind might be.

 

 

So that's how he gets his bloody books in them! Mystery solved.

[maryportfuncity 10,647]

 

 

 

I think the idea of a lone nutter coming up to an MP on the street and stabbing and/or shooting them has always seemed a step too far for contemplation. This has shattered that belief.

 

Always a possibility with a disgruntled (and/or unbalanced) constituent. There was this, back in 2000.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2000/jan/29/uk.politicalnews1

 

An MP's assistant was stabbed to death yesterday as he tried to protect the Liberal Democrat MP Nigel Jones from an attacker who stormed his constituency office in Cheltenham armed with a sword.

 

 

 

I've run into some politicos sans security in London including Roy Hattersley years ago not long after he'd ceased his stint as deputy leader of the Labour party. He was browsing in a book shop just off Charing Cross Road, struck me then how vulnerable he and his kind might be.

 

 

So that's how he gets his bloody books in them! Mystery solved.

 

 

 

Might be closer to the truth than you think. Edwina Currie - or so I'm told - holds some kind of record for the percentage by which the sales of her autobiography (the second volume of) fell short of hoped for sales. Mainly - again, so I'm told - because she more or less ignored the fact she'd been a cabinet minister and spent most of the book banging on about times she'd looked "stunning" and people she'd met/places been etc.

[Rotten Ali 600]

 

 

 

 

 

Puts the EU nonsense into perspective.

 

 

For a day at least. Those f***ers will be back to pollute the airwaves with bile-infested verbal shite for another week, though

I did wonder today what this all means for the EU referendum. Personally I'm all for putting it off. I know they won't, and it would cause political and economic turmoil but what's the alternative? Take the weekend to come to terms with the death of a colleague and then everyone back here bright and early Monday morning to spend a week kicking shit out of each other over stuff nobody understands anyway?

Given David Icke and other wackos are already running with her death being a fake designed to affect the result of the referendum by convincing more people to vote to remain - it'll be interesting to see if it does actually effect the polls.

At the point we stopped "ripping shit" out of each other, my canvassing return was standing at 70% Vote Leave, 30% RemaIN. No doubt nutters like David Icke will have hold of the wrong end of the stick, but unfortunately I must say at least he has hold of the correct stick. Tensions all round have been rising. Yesterday's murder of Jo Cox very well could have been a consiquence of disperate party politics affecting people's minds. It could so eailly have been Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage or Michael Gove that were shot by a left wing nutter who saw the referendum as some sort of a right wing Tory take over or racist plot. I've read madness postings that point to Britain and Europe being targeted as some sort of Halibut take over plot in the medium term by EU free movement and higher birth rates. Both sides are to blame for the outcome yesterday. For the RemaIN side I must say lots of people have the opinion that lies are being told to the public. Cameron and Osborne are often called out as cases in point to me. They really need to shoulder some of that blame, and reflect on their utterances about the "Chicken Little" like statements about the sky falling in on everyone. No one likes lies and some people take real offence. Offence to the point of murder was always possible. I had forseen violence of the people in mass riot, after a result in favour of a RemaIN win due to them fixing it behind the scenes. By the sounds of it, nutters like Icke are already adding 2 and 2 together and getting 22. They see it as the precursor to explain away any result in favour of a RemaIN win as being a perfect cover story of a simple sympathy vote that has swung at least enough votes to land it without any further explanation necessarily required. And in some ways it very well could be. However that's very far fetched, but again to these people who take everything too personally and too literally, those in power just look at the bad news as being just too tasty to past over in the round.

All I can say is, it's very sad all round.

Out of interest Ali where are you canvassing?.

The seat is called Gedling, it's normally semi safe Labour, with the Tory party in an easy second place. It's north east of the Nottingham inner 3 city seats, before it gets rural. It used to be a mining area but now that's becoming a country park. Really being said that its the labour vote that's come down so very hard time for out. In essence this area of the country gets well below its ration of spending by government and euro projects. 2nd rate under used public transport links, and many attempts to remove the oap's bus passes. Still we get free 2 hour parking near our high street shopping. But when the sink estates are suffering twice the national average of unemployment and many others under employed there is no dought that people wish to object to euro money being wasted left right and centre. And latest figures ignoring the 6% undecided are standing at 72.5% Vote Leave, 27.5% RemaIN.

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

 

 

Out of interest Ali where are you canvassing?.

The seat is called Gedling, it's normally semi safe Labour, with the Tory party in an easy second place. It's north east of the Nottingham inner 3 city seats, before it gets rural. It used to be a mining area but now that's becoming a country park. Really being said that its the labour vote that's come down so very hard time for out. In essence this area of the country gets well below its ration of spending by government and euro projects. 2nd rate under used public transport links, and many attempts to remove the oap's bus passes. Still we get free 2 hour parking near our high street shopping. But when the sink estates are suffering twice the national average of unemployment and many others under employed there is no dought that people wish to object to euro money being wasted left right and centre. And latest figures ignoring the 6% undecided are standing at 72.5% Vote Leave, 27.5% RemaIN.

 

 

All that makes sense, but I'm afraid if they think that leaving the EU will lead to that money coming their way they're sorely mistaken. The cause of their problems is government policy not EU policy. We're the 5th largest economy in the world (as the Leavers keep saying) so there's plenty of wealth in the country, the fact it's all concentrated in the south-east pisses us all off. Still, at least we'll all be satisfied when we can royally castigate Prime Minister Johnson and Chancellor Gove instead of those faceless bureaucrats in Brussels. It's going to be a tense night tomorrow...

 

Are you counting Ali?

[maryportfuncity 10,647]

Cameron is on my BEB team, just saying.

 

Will he still be an MP at the next election and when - exactly - do we think that election will be?

[Sir Creep 7,070]

Cameron is on my BEB team, just saying.

 

 

Ok now I have no idea what your political flow chart must look like, though the cat coughed up a fur ball and I'm getting a visual.

I thought this was limited to MPs..... Ahh but MPFC infers Cameron is wearing two hats? I'm at a loss.

SirC

[Cat O'Falk 3,290]

 

Cameron is on my BEB team, just saying.

 

Ok now I have no idea what your political flow chart must look like, though the cat coughed up a fur ball and I'm getting a visual.

I thought this was limited to MPs..... Ahh but MPFC infers Cameron is wearing two hats? I'm at a loss.

SirC

 

David Cameron is the elected Member of Parliament for the constituency of Whitney in Oxfordshire. He is also the leader of the Conservative Party and the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

[Toast 16,144]

 

 

Cameron is on my BEB team, just saying.

 

Ok now I have no idea what your political flow chart must look like, though the cat coughed up a fur ball and I'm getting a visual.

I thought this was limited to MPs..... Ahh but MPFC infers Cameron is wearing two hats? I'm at a loss.

SirC

 

David Cameron is the elected Member of Parliament for the constituency of Whitney in Oxfordshire. He is also the leader of the Conservative Party and the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

 

 

Just for the sake of accuracy ..... It's Witney.

 

(Nowhere near Houston.)

[Deathray 2,940]

Cameron is on my BEB team, just saying.

 

Will he still be an MP at the next election and when - exactly - do we think that election will be?

 

Due to the 2011 thingymajiggy he'd need 2/3rds of parliament for election won't happen.

[msc 18,476]

If there is a 2016 election, does that kill this game?

 

Also, you need 2/3rds of parliament for a Vote of No Confidence. To remove the Fixed Terms Act, you merely need a majority in parliament.

[rockhopper penguin 2,265]

 

Cameron is on my BEB team, just saying.

 

Will he still be an MP at the next election and when - exactly - do we think that election will be?

 

Due to the 2011 thingymajiggy he'd need 2/3rds of parliament for election won't happen.

 

You sure? Brexit Tories + Labour + SNP

[maryportfuncity 10,647]

 

Cameron is on my BEB team, just saying.

 

Ok now I have no idea what your political flow chart must look like, though the cat coughed up a fur ball and I'm getting a visual.

I thought this was limited to MPs..... Ahh but MPFC infers Cameron is wearing two hats? I'm at a loss.

SirC

 

 

I trust SC is no longer confused. I could see David Cameron departing the constituency sooner rather than later. He's not one of those who'd be easily satisfied as a good constituency MP

[Spade_Cooley 9,536]

Witney'd be a perfect constituency to parachute the Great White Osbornian hope to serve as leader in 2025 as well.

[themaninblack 2,112]

Witney'd be a perfect constituency to parachute the Great White Osbornian hope to serve as leader in 2025 as well.

 

Funnily enough, Cameron only got his chance in that seat because the incumbent, Shaun Woodward, defected to Labour and moved up to a safe seat up north.

 

Hmmmm...

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

I also have David Cameron in the Bingo. As does The Dead Cow. My expectation was he'd do a Blair and stand down as MP when he stands down as PM. If it was closer to 2020 then he might see out his term but I don't think he can take 3 years sitting on the backbenches behind Boris.

 

And if there is a General Election this year, the game would indeed become void.

 

As for whether that will happen, there are various ways in which it could. They could somehow come to an agreement over the 2/3rds majority to dissolve Parliament. They could simply repeal the Fixed Term Parliaments Act which introduced the 5 year rule in the first place - that would only need a majority of Parliament. And Labour is more likely to be open to a new election if they've managed to get rid of Corbyn. Not guaranteed if it goes to the members, but apparently his aides aren't sure that as leader he automatically qualifies for the ballot, and chances are Labour MPs simply wouldn't nominate him if not.

[Toast 16,144]

This is the best thing in Witney.

 

http://www.wychwood.co.uk

[themaninblack 2,112]

I also have David Cameron in the Bingo. As does The Dead Cow. My expectation was he'd do a Blair and stand down as MP when he stands down as PM. If it was closer to 2020 then he might see out his term but I don't think he can take 3 years sitting on the backbenches behind Boris.

 

And if there is a General Election this year, the game would indeed become void.

 

As for whether that will happen, there are various ways in which it could. They could somehow come to an agreement over the 2/3rds majority to dissolve Parliament. They could simply repeal the Fixed Term Parliaments Act which introduced the 5 year rule in the first place - that would only need a majority of Parliament. And Labour is more likely to be open to a new election if they've managed to get rid of Corbyn. Not guaranteed if it goes to the members, but apparently his aides aren't sure that as leader he automatically qualifies for the ballot, and chances are Labour MPs simply wouldn't nominate him if not.

 

It would be quicker to enact the early general election clause than to repeal the act. By my calculations, the earliest possible GE would be on November 17th, which would bring By-Election Bingo #1 to end after only 18 months!

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

I also have David Cameron in the Bingo. As does The Dead Cow. My expectation was he'd do a Blair and stand down as MP when he stands down as PM. If it was closer to 2020 then he might see out his term but I don't think he can take 3 years sitting on the backbenches behind Boris.

 

And if there is a General Election this year, the game would indeed become void.

 

As for whether that will happen, there are various ways in which it could. They could somehow come to an agreement over the 2/3rds majority to dissolve Parliament. They could simply repeal the Fixed Term Parliaments Act which introduced the 5 year rule in the first place - that would only need a majority of Parliament. And Labour is more likely to be open to a new election if they've managed to get rid of Corbyn. Not guaranteed if it goes to the members, but apparently his aides aren't sure that as leader he automatically qualifies for the ballot, and chances are Labour MPs simply wouldn't nominate him if not.

 

The game does not become void. just ended.

[msc 18,476]

 

I also have David Cameron in the Bingo. As does The Dead Cow. My expectation was he'd do a Blair and stand down as MP when he stands down as PM. If it was closer to 2020 then he might see out his term but I don't think he can take 3 years sitting on the backbenches behind Boris.

 

And if there is a General Election this year, the game would indeed become void.

 

As for whether that will happen, there are various ways in which it could. They could somehow come to an agreement over the 2/3rds majority to dissolve Parliament. They could simply repeal the Fixed Term Parliaments Act which introduced the 5 year rule in the first place - that would only need a majority of Parliament. And Labour is more likely to be open to a new election if they've managed to get rid of Corbyn. Not guaranteed if it goes to the members, but apparently his aides aren't sure that as leader he automatically qualifies for the ballot, and chances are Labour MPs simply wouldn't nominate him if not.

 

The game does not become void. just ended.

 

 

A one off or repeated in the next parliament?

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

 

 

I also have David Cameron in the Bingo. As does The Dead Cow. My expectation was he'd do a Blair and stand down as MP when he stands down as PM. If it was closer to 2020 then he might see out his term but I don't think he can take 3 years sitting on the backbenches behind Boris.

 

And if there is a General Election this year, the game would indeed become void.

 

As for whether that will happen, there are various ways in which it could. They could somehow come to an agreement over the 2/3rds majority to dissolve Parliament. They could simply repeal the Fixed Term Parliaments Act which introduced the 5 year rule in the first place - that would only need a majority of Parliament. And Labour is more likely to be open to a new election if they've managed to get rid of Corbyn. Not guaranteed if it goes to the members, but apparently his aides aren't sure that as leader he automatically qualifies for the ballot, and chances are Labour MPs simply wouldn't nominate him if not.

 

The game does not become void. just ended.

 

 

A one off or repeated in the next parliament?

 

 

Fair point Biblio, I'm blaming the fact I was bereft and operating on 3 hours sleep for my error.

 

And I'm up for another go, although I'll be honest, I'm sure they'll find a way around having another election. Which leads me to....

 

It would be quicker to enact the early general election clause than to repeal the act. By my calculations, the earliest possible GE would be on November 17th, which would bring By-Election Bingo #1 to end after only 18 months!

 

Quicker in terms of time taken but not necessarily easier. To dissolve Parliament, there has to be agreement of 2/3rds of the House (so around 417 by my reckoning) or else a vote of no confidence in the government. If the latter happens there is a fortnight to form a new government before a general election is called, but if they can use that whenever they like then how does the Fixed Term Parliaments Act not just rely on a government sticking to the rules rather than dissolving itself whenever it feels like it could win a general like before? I'm not sure I see a clear way for the House to get to 417 unless it is agreed on all sides that we need a new election to elect our Brexit negotiating government. Boris will likely be riding the crest of a wave as leader and will be up for boosting his majority, but Labour wouldn't support that if it looks likely, especially if Corbyn is still leader. If Corbyn isn't, and Labour have enjoyed a bump in the polls, Boris may not be keen on taking a chance that the electorate won't 'do a Churchill' and say 'thanks for getting us out, now we want the other guys to negotiate for us'. Worse still would be a bump in support for UKIP in the autumn while Farage milks this for all its worth. On the flip side, while repealing a law is tricky and time-consuming, once it's repealed, they can do what they like, and unlike the FTPA, it would only (eventually) need a simple majority to pass the repeal.

 

Unless it's clear that Boris can get a hugely improved majority, I think he'll be keen to get on with ruling and not want to take the chance with another election - not to mention a third national poll inside a year. I suspect the By-Election Bingo will get it's 5 years. And with it, I'll get some points for Mr Cameron's honourable resignation.

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

 

 

I also have David Cameron in the Bingo. As does The Dead Cow. My expectation was he'd do a Blair and stand down as MP when he stands down as PM. If it was closer to 2020 then he might see out his term but I don't think he can take 3 years sitting on the backbenches behind Boris.

 

And if there is a General Election this year, the game would indeed become void.

 

As for whether that will happen, there are various ways in which it could. They could somehow come to an agreement over the 2/3rds majority to dissolve Parliament. They could simply repeal the Fixed Term Parliaments Act which introduced the 5 year rule in the first place - that would only need a majority of Parliament. And Labour is more likely to be open to a new election if they've managed to get rid of Corbyn. Not guaranteed if it goes to the members, but apparently his aides aren't sure that as leader he automatically qualifies for the ballot, and chances are Labour MPs simply wouldn't nominate him if not.

 

The game does not become void. just ended.

 

 

A one off or repeated in the next parliament?

 

 

Oh yes definitely. Although I will be upping the picks to 50 in the next game so we get better coverage of the 650 (or however many are left by then (minus Scotland and possibly NI))

[themaninblack 2,112]

 

 

 

I also have David Cameron in the Bingo. As does The Dead Cow. My expectation was he'd do a Blair and stand down as MP when he stands down as PM. If it was closer to 2020 then he might see out his term but I don't think he can take 3 years sitting on the backbenches behind Boris.

 

And if there is a General Election this year, the game would indeed become void.

 

As for whether that will happen, there are various ways in which it could. They could somehow come to an agreement over the 2/3rds majority to dissolve Parliament. They could simply repeal the Fixed Term Parliaments Act which introduced the 5 year rule in the first place - that would only need a majority of Parliament. And Labour is more likely to be open to a new election if they've managed to get rid of Corbyn. Not guaranteed if it goes to the members, but apparently his aides aren't sure that as leader he automatically qualifies for the ballot, and chances are Labour MPs simply wouldn't nominate him if not.

 

The game does not become void. just ended.

 

 

A one off or repeated in the next parliament?

 

 

Fair point Biblio, I'm blaming the fact I was bereft and operating on 3 hours sleep for my error.

 

And I'm up for another go, although I'll be honest, I'm sure they'll find a way around having another election. Which leads me to....

 

It would be quicker to enact the early general election clause than to repeal the act. By my calculations, the earliest possible GE would be on November 17th, which would bring By-Election Bingo #1 to end after only 18 months!

 

Quicker in terms of time taken but not necessarily easier. To dissolve Parliament, there has to be agreement of 2/3rds of the House (so around 417 by my reckoning) or else a vote of no confidence in the government. If the latter happens there is a fortnight to form a new government before a general election is called, but if they can use that whenever they like then how does the Fixed Term Parliaments Act not just rely on a government sticking to the rules rather than dissolving itself whenever it feels like it could win a general like before? I'm not sure I see a clear way for the House to get to 417 unless it is agreed on all sides that we need a new election to elect our Brexit negotiating government. Boris will likely be riding the crest of a wave as leader and will be up for boosting his majority, but Labour wouldn't support that if it looks likely, especially if Corbyn is still leader. If Corbyn isn't, and Labour have enjoyed a bump in the polls, Boris may not be keen on taking a chance that the electorate won't 'do a Churchill' and say 'thanks for getting us out, now we want the other guys to negotiate for us'. Worse still would be a bump in support for UKIP in the autumn while Farage milks this for all its worth. On the flip side, while repealing a law is tricky and time-consuming, once it's repealed, they can do what they like, and unlike the FTPA, it would only (eventually) need a simple majority to pass the repeal.

 

Unless it's clear that Boris can get a hugely improved majority, I think he'll be keen to get on with ruling and not want to take the chance with another election - not to mention a third national poll inside a year. I suspect the By-Election Bingo will get it's 5 years. And with it, I'll get some points for Mr Cameron's honourable resignation.

 

 

That indeed could happen. Labour (either under Corbyn or a new leader) may well be put under heavy pressure to vote for an early election and considering the figures regarding Labour's core vote shifting to Leave, particularly in the North, they may have a disastrous election of 1983 proportions, maybe even worse new leader or not. So would those turkeys vote for Xmas?

 

Another path is the other dissolution option - that of a simple majority having no confidence in HM Government presaging a period where the opposition leader (Corbyn, Starmer, whoever) is asked to try and form a new government before a second vote two weeks later, which would inevitably fail to get a majority and thus kick off the election. That delay would mean an election held on December 1st, which would the latest UK election in a calender year since 1923. Very unlikely to happen though...

[msc 18,476]

Alternatively, Corbyn could go imminently, and Labour could elect a competent looking leader type (where they find them, I don't know) while the Tories are doing their PM Idol thing, and then, with the new PM feeling forced to go to the country for a mandate, and coupled with people who feel regret, feel lied to for whatever reasons or remainers who feel pissed off with the government in general, we could see a repeat of February 1974, when the mandate from the people was "Oh sod off".

 

I mean, it's less likely, but this is the year in which nothing should be ruled out anymore.