Derby Dead Pool 2016

[themaninblack 2,112]

Question for TMB: If a theme team was to keep the same name but slightly broaden the scope for picks, for example if I took Cobbles to a Coffin from Actors to anybody whose worked on the show - would the years in DDP for it be reset or remain the same?

 

Its complex. In theory you could have a player who has a regular theme team that changes theme but still have the same "history" as it were, although it can be hard to keep up. But in your case, there's no real issue here...

[Phantom 2,488]

If Joey Feek were to die today, I'd get bonus points on our local dead pool for 2 people dying on the same day.

[msc 17,807]

Chorizo is ahead of me by a few points and has Feek in the joker slot as well, so he'd be the new leader with a prospective Feek demise I believe.

 

Indeed he is, I was mixing up the contendors jokers there. Chorizo's side are really good though, lots of tottering types still kicking about on their list too. I'd certainly consider them the dark horses to win alongside yourself. The Living End and, especially, DQSP, are overwhelming favourites though. Anytime I look at Spade's team, it looks like it could ease past 120 points quite easily.

 

I think myself and Sir Creep will fall off the pace before too long (and no offence gcreptile, I hope Shameless does too), but it's just cool to be up there.

 

This year's comp has started like a bullet, hasn't it?

 

It has the feel of 2013 to it. I was going to say 2011, but if memory serves, that was DDT with a million hits by end of January while everyone else was waiting for the likes of Liz Taylor and Diana Wynne Jones.

 

Top ten is a far more interesting spot than joint 221st, mind you!

[gcreptile 10,288]

After Crowe and Feek, Shameless should not get into the lead again. It was a bit of a freak occurence anyway. And my main team should finally overtake Shameless as well...

 

It should become obvious now why I declared Captain Chorizo the favourite on the previous page (or the one before that?). Jade Pateman was huge for him.

[Death Impends 7,428]

I get a 2013 vibe from this year as well, with a ton of people getting a ton of hits. I'd like to see if this is the year I finally crack 100 points. Crowe puts me at 55, assuming Feek dies soon that gets me to 75. I think with the latest news on her, Diski is also a cert. 83. And there's a few more likely carkers beyond that.

[msc 17,807]

I get a 2013 vibe from this year as well, with a ton of people getting a ton of hits. I'd like to see if this is the year I finally crack 100 points. Crowe puts me at 55, assuming Feek dies soon that gets me to 75. I think with the latest news on her, Diski is also a cert. 83. And there's a few more likely carkers beyond that.

 

You've got Esterhazy, Christie, Langhorne and Travis. If those four are all still breathing on January 1st, I'll be shocked.

 

I cut three of them from my own team which is practically the kiss of death this year.

[Sean 6,005]

My team is looking reasonably strong.Already scored with Angelil and Crowe and it looks like my joker is ready to expire very shortly indeed.

[RadGuy 1,605]

Not doing that well. Crowe and Angelil gone, and Feek soon. Other than I have Ford, Marks and Berkowitz from people I'm really counting on, but neither are dead certs.

I excluded a bunch of people like Diski, St John, Lubbock, etc. because as a teenager yank, I have no idea about the obitability of British celebs. Now I know they are obit-certs, and I'm mad at myself.

I had Lubbock and St John on Deathrace though, and Diski as well (I think) but she's also in Shaun's DP.

[Phantom 2,488]

Not doing that well. Crowe and Angelil gone, and Feek soon. Other than I have Ford, Marks and Berkowitz from people I'm really counting on, but neither are dead certs.

I excluded a bunch of people like Diski, St John, Lubbock, etc. because as a teenager yank, I have no idea about the obitability of British celebs. Now I know they are obit-certs, and I'm mad at myself.

I had Lubbock and St John on Deathrace though, and Diski as well (I think) but she's also in Shaun's DP.

 

St. John without a doubt would get an obit. Berkowitz may be a bit of a gamble. Sometimes they only get a write up in a music paper like NME and not in the mainstream press unless the band they were in is what you would call an institution like The Eagles, Motorhead etc.

[CaptainChorizo 1,917]

There was a period of half a decade where every Gothic teenager in Merica wore Marilyn Manson t-shirts, I would be very surprised if he did not get at least a Daily Mail mention when he passes away.

[Pedro67 227]

Four hits already! 28 pts ! Only having to hit scroll down twice to see my team in the league ! Found use for '!' button on keyboard again......!

OK, ain't gonna win DDP, but Hell's Bell's it more fun up the right end of the league.

[Sir Creep 7,018]

 

I get a 2013 vibe from this year as well, with a ton of people getting a ton of hits. I'd like to see if this is the year I finally crack 100 points. Crowe puts me at 55, assuming Feek dies soon that gets me to 75. I think with the latest news on her, Diski is also a cert. 83. And there's a few more likely carkers beyond that.

 

You've got Esterhazy, Christie, Langhorne and Travis. If those four are all still breathing on January 1st, I'll be shocked.

 

I cut three of them from my own team which is practically the kiss of death this year.

 

Why would Esterhazy failure to die be a 'shock'? I have him in my DP I run and I consider it the second worst pick I made. It takes a while for pancreatic C to get down to business, and all we know is he was diagnosed. Show me it was stage 4. He prolly has two years yet. It was a bad pick by me then and remains one.

SC

[msc 17,807]

 

 

I get a 2013 vibe from this year as well, with a ton of people getting a ton of hits. I'd like to see if this is the year I finally crack 100 points. Crowe puts me at 55, assuming Feek dies soon that gets me to 75. I think with the latest news on her, Diski is also a cert. 83. And there's a few more likely carkers beyond that.

 

You've got Esterhazy, Christie, Langhorne and Travis. If those four are all still breathing on January 1st, I'll be shocked.

 

I cut three of them from my own team which is practically the kiss of death this year.

 

Why would Esterhazy failure to die be a 'shock'? I have him in my DP I run and I consider it the second worst pick I made. It takes a while for pancreatic C to get down to business, and all we know is he was diagnosed. Show me it was stage 4. He prolly has two years yet. It was a bad pick by me then and remains one.

SC

 

 

"If those four are ALL still breathing" means any of the above, not necessarily all of the above.

 

Though, as I mentioned, I feel Peter Esterhazy is probably going to die, on the basis of the good old fashioned jinx: I didn't pick him from my final shortlist of 25, therefore he's doomed. More fatal than any cancer.

[CaptainChorizo 1,917]

 

 

I get a 2013 vibe from this year as well, with a ton of people getting a ton of hits. I'd like to see if this is the year I finally crack 100 points. Crowe puts me at 55, assuming Feek dies soon that gets me to 75. I think with the latest news on her, Diski is also a cert. 83. And there's a few more likely carkers beyond that.

 

You've got Esterhazy, Christie, Langhorne and Travis. If those four are all still breathing on January 1st, I'll be shocked.

 

I cut three of them from my own team which is practically the kiss of death this year.

 

Why would Esterhazy failure to die be a 'shock'? I have him in my DP I run and I consider it the second worst pick I made. It takes a while for pancreatic C to get down to business, and all we know is he was diagnosed. Show me it was stage 4. He prolly has two years yet. It was a bad pick by me then and remains one.

SC

 

 

I would say he is a 50/50 case either way.None of the articles mentioned he was diagnosed last year just that he was publicly announcing he had Pancreatic cancer and had to withdraw from a speaking engagement. It's quite possible he has known for some time.

[JiroemonKimura 95]

Crowe places me at 55. Here's my analysis on my picks:

Cert: Feek, Marks

Probable: Geoffrey Robinson (obit likely but uncertain), Harper, Granger, Travis (expecting roughly 2-3/4)

Possible: Ford, Booth, Westhuizen, Farnham, Ricksen, Ali, Carter (expecting roughly 2/7)

 

The rest are outside chances that I don't really expect to die, but would add a bit of uncertainty into my position.

 

So that should put me around the 100 neighborhood. The fact that Sonny Lang died certainly boosted my position greatly, as I considered her an "all-or-nothing" pick when the year started.

 

IMO I think I could've used a few more dead certs such as Nakamatsu, Andrew Smith and Hassan Asif (wasn't aware of either when I submitted), Pat Harrington, Clive Derby-Lewis, etc.

[Sir Creep 7,018]

Crowe places me at 55. Here's my analysis on my picks:

Cert: Feek, Marks

Probable: Geoffrey Robinson (obit likely but uncertain), Harper, Granger, Travis (expecting roughly 2-3/4)

Possible: Ford, Booth, Westhuizen, Farnham, Ricksen, Ali, Carter (expecting roughly 2/7)

 

The rest are outside chances that I don't really expect to die, but would add a bit of uncertainty into my position.

 

So that should put me around the 100 neighborhood. The fact that Sonny Lang died certainly boosted my position greatly, as I considered her an "all-or-nothing" pick when the year started.

 

IMO I think I could've used a few more dead certs such as Nakamatsu, Andrew Smith and Hassan Asif (wasn't aware of either when I submitted), Pat Harrington, Clive Derby-Lewis, etc.

DDP MAIN - Cancel My Appointments

 

Oh oh can I play!?! *waving arms frantically*

Hassan Asif (JOKER) Martin Crowe Mark Farren Patrick Harrington Jr. Andrew Smith

Certs: Feek, Nakamatsu

Probable: Morano, Overton

Quite Possible: Diski, Barrie, 'Superster' Billy Graham (won't happen till at least Sept)

Maybe: JLittle, HSmith

Looking like bad picks: Adamowicz, Bob Ellis, Rockefeller, Sarstedt, Stiles.

Purely defensive pick 'just in case': TotalBiscuit Bain

 

I don't have any young'ins left (sans Bain) after Feek. But who does.

If I can get 5 of the 9 Certs-Maybe bunch that'll keep me around. I think true success rides on Rockefeller coming through and maybe another from the 'looking like bad picks' list, which I would gladly trade for Morano/Overton.

 

Not sure where any of that puts me point-wise but likely not much over 100. Guessing you need 130+ to win, 100+ to be top 10. Oh well.

SirC

[Lard Bazaar 3,706]

Marilyn Manson were a pile of rat's wank.

[Eesti 151]

I have already 4/20. (Pat Harrington Jr, Rene Angelil, Eric Lubbock, Martin Crowe)

I believe that Feek, Marks will be also hits.

Others ... I don't know. History shows that I get 3/20 or 7/20 hits per year. I have already over 3... so I will have 7 hits probably.

[Spade_Cooley 9,050]

Marilyn Manson were a pile of rat's wank.

 

Bassline on "The Beautiful People" was good imho tbqh

[msc 17,807]

 

 

I don't have any young'ins left (sans Bain) after Feek. But who does.

 

 

Myself and Spade both have BBC documentary maker Rowena Kincaid, who is said to be deteriorating quickly. There's also Granger (who wont go) and Van der Westhuizen (who is in year 5 of MND, but more an end of year/2017 pick right now at a guess). Also, I've got Dr Mark Sims, who is famous for, err, dying. Not my proudest moment.

 

As for your little game...

 

Pan Breed

dead - Angelil, Crowe, Lubbock, Farren, Smith, Gartside

certs - Feek, Diski

probable - Kincaid

possible - Van der Westhuizen, Stiles, Sims, Marks

bad picks - Bishop Robinson, Granger, Ford, Bonnie Brown

don't know - Farnham, LaTourette

probably a year early - McDonald

 

I was surprised you picked Superstar Billy. He's the biggest case of the boy who cried wolf in wrestling. His "my liver is done and I am totally dying, months left" speech was from 2010! (I was going to pick Blackjack Mulligan but the lack of an obit for Nick Bockwinkel scared me away.)

[Spade_Cooley 9,050]

Granger's an interesting one. She's clearly motivated by her platform to speak about healthcare and cancer (and if she was just an office worker or a homemaker instead of a doctor I'm sure she'd have died ages ago), but she does seem to go through peaks of "big decisions to make, this could be it, this is my last Christmas/Eastern/Halloween" and planning holidays four/five/six months into the future. I make her chances of dying this year 75/25.

 

Not really ready to call any of my picks "wasted" yet this year, although if picked the 20 again I'd probably put Bob Ellis (definitely has cancer, definitely overstated the severity of it) and Abdul Sattar Edhi (probably no more likely to die than any other 89 year old in a home this year) on the stand-in list rather than the starting line-up.

[msc 17,807]

Especially given you won last year after Sadhana recovered from emergency surgery only to die after a short battle with cancer a year later! (Of course, they might be related, but it looked like it was two separate cases of aging person ill health.)

[Death Impends 7,428]

Way I see it for mine:

 

Adios: Angelil, Armenteros, Brinson, Crowe, Farren, Gartside, Lubbock

Certs: Diski, Feek

Very likely: Langhorne, NakaMats, Travis

Likely: Christie, Esterhazy

Possible: Wright (may be the most crucial one to how well I finish this year)

Currently unlikely: Brown, Cruyff, Ford, (never really felt like he was close to death yet, but didn't want to miss out on him if I was wrong) Jones (seems more 2017 and beyond, looking back - still very active), Wicks (now in remission, and in retrospect was a case of Ed Drummond syndrome - ie picking someone obscure but ill just because it made your research game look more impressive)

 

Of course things can always change, and there always are those people who claim on the mend early in the year only to cark it anyway before the year is up. It does suggest the odds are quite good I make it past 100 points either way.

[RadGuy 1,605]

Gone: Angelil, Crowe
Certs: Feek
Good chance: Marks, Ford
Decent chance: Adulyadej, Gabor, Harper, Berkowitz
Shitty: Rest

 

Assuming everyone except the shitty rest die, I will have 70 points (maybe more if bonuses).

[CaptainChorizo 1,917]

I'd say my own chances rest on 2 of the 3 passing btwn Seijun Suzuki,Terri Roberts and Steve LaTourette since neither GCR or any of last years top 10 have Roberts and Suzuki and only PanBreed has LaTourette. Almost all of the rest of the people on my team would be keeping up with multiple other contender type hits. Aside from those 3 I would also say John Bain seeing the year out would be YUGE for my chances since I passed on him and he is young and on most top contenders teams. If he died I would probably need something close to a record hits tally to finish top 3.