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Political Frailty

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8 hours ago, Gooseberry Crumble said:

Who are the others you have in mind? 

In the past I thought Ken Clarke and Neil Kinnock but both are now suitably superannuated and retired from frontline politics so that it would just be classed as a normalish death rather than a John Smith type surprise departure. 

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Eric Pickles ,Mike Gapes ,Patrick McLoughlin although no longer Mp`s when they were always striked me as likely to do a John Smith and drop dead.

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It is truly remarkable that in the last 21 years only one Conservative MP has died while in office (Eric Forth) and no sitting Conservative MP has died in the last 15 years. 

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1 hour ago, Deathrace said:

It is truly remarkable that in the last 21 years only one Conservative MP has died while in office (Eric Forth) and no sitting Conservative MP has died in the last 15 years. 

 

That's mainly due to factional purges under Cameron, May and Al Johnson. Many of the "old guard" received peerages to stand down in favour of narcissistic and incompetent  morons like Matt Hancock and Grant happs.

 

The new Tories are wannabe nobodies who are desperate to climb Boris's greasy pole. Most are professional failures and social misfits who could not handle the  ridicule and vitriol in the press and on anti-social media - just like Harry Hewitt, aka the Duke of Sussex.

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14 minutes ago, Kenny said:

narcissistic and incompetent morons like Matt Hancock

 

Or, as Jonathan Pie calls him,  Matt Wanksock.

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9 minutes ago, Kenny said:

 

That's mainly due to factional purges under Cameron, May and Al Johnson. Many of the "old guard" received peerages to stand down in favour of narcissistic and incompetent  morons like Matt Hancock and Grant happs.


Point taken, but I can't think of any of the Conservatives MPs who have been shuffled out since 2015 by Cameron, May or subsequently, became peers and died. So that doesn't account for why there hasn't been any deaths, does it?

In fact, there's only been one death of a Conservative who was an MP in any of the Parliaments from 2010 onwards, and that was Sir Peter Tapsell in 2018. And he was pushing 90!

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3 minutes ago, Ulitzer95 said:


Point taken, but I can't think of any of the Conservatives MPs who have been shuffled out since 2015 by Cameron, May or subsequently, became peers and died. So that doesn't account for why there hasn't been any deaths, does it?

In fact, there's only been one death of a Conservative who was an MP in any of the Parliaments from 2010 onwards, and that was Sir Peter Tapsell in 2018. And he was pushing 90!

 

I think the reason for that can be seen in 2 elections - 1997 and 2010. 1997 flushed out so much of the old guard (around 200 Tories from the 1992-7 parliament were gone for the 1997-2001 parliament) and when those seats reverted back to the Tories in 2005-15 it was for much younger Tory figures mostly. Also, 2010, in the wake of the expenses scandal, saw a ludicrous 36% of the seats in parliament (235!) swap incumbents.

 

A number of the 1997 victims held "safe" seats and are no longer with us. Of the 2010 expenses folk, I believe a few are also dead. Peter Viggers for example but he would have presumably stood down by 2020!

 

(Of course, the flip question is why do so many Labour MPs die in their 50s/60s. Only one of them overdosed on Polish absinthe!)

 

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7 hours ago, DCI Frank Burnside said:

Sammy Wilson from the DUP is another candidate 

 

 

sammy_wilson___getty.jpg?t=1562090596

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anyone stood between him and Alan Brazil would likely melt inside an hour

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34 minutes ago, msc said:

 

I think the reason for that can be seen in 2 elections - 1997 and 2010. 1997 flushed out so much of the old guard (around 200 Tories from the 1992-7 parliament were gone for the 1997-2001 parliament) and when those seats reverted back to the Tories in 2005-15 it was for much younger Tory figures mostly. Also, 2010, in the wake of the expenses scandal, saw a ludicrous 36% of the seats in parliament (235!) swap incumbents.

 

A number of the 1997 victims held "safe" seats and are no longer with us. Of the 2010 expenses folk, I believe a few are also dead. Peter Viggers for example but he would have presumably stood down by 2020!

 

(Of course, the flip question is why do so many Labour MPs die in their 50s/60s. Only one of them overdosed on Polish absinthe!)

 


Before the 1990s it was particularly bad. There was a period of successive by-elections because of Labour MPs just dying. I think it was very much down to the type of people who were elected as Labour MPs back then i.e. they were more likely to come from more humble beginnings, but that often meant born into poverty, bad diet and lifestyle, manual labour job preceding their parliamentary career and getting hooked into the drinking culture that exists in Westminster.

Sir James Spicer, who was a Tory MP from 1974 to 1997 recognised there was a wider problem for the lifestyle of MPs. Too much work + too much drinking + bad diet + no exercise = early grave. He often spoke about it, and campaigned to have a gym installed inside Parliament, which opened in 1978 and remains very popular amongst MPs. Definitely made a big impact. You don't see many MPs just dropping dead from strokes or heart attacks now.

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4 hours ago, Toast said:

 

Or, as Jonathan Pie calls him,  Matt Wanksock.

My Mother calls him Matt Hand on Cock.

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Ano Turtiainen (born 1967)

IMG_20210302_165015.png.abc65ec80bfb8475dd86b3e99855c4b5.png

Finnish politician, currently a parliament member kicked out of his political party for controversial opinions. Doping-filled giant powerlifter who has beaten multiple people up (including a 14-year old boy) and is now threathening to beat up members of his former political party.

Thinks wearing masks is some kind of a zionist lie to make everyone muslims and has troubles breathing and known internationally for mocking George Floyd on twitter. Because of this, his business is falling. And he has had health problems.

 

Today he was in the news for saying "every covid casuality would have died of something else soon after"

I'm pretty sure he won't make it to 60. If it isn't COVID or suicide due to failing businesses, his heart will fail sooner or later

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On 09/01/2021 at 16:10, arghton said:

Lester L. Wolff celebrated his 102th birthday a few days ago. 102 and using social media. :birthday:

Don't know if I'm worried for no reason, but Wolff tweeted these and hasn't tweeted again in 6 days. Sounds odd that he's asking about Taiwan-related things on twitter considering that a month ago he talked about them for two hours.

 

Edit: He's back

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On 03/03/2018 at 22:19, drol said:

Former Japanese Prime Minister Tomichi Murayama turns 94 today! :birthday:

97 today :birthday:

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Jimmy Spratt (wiki), DUP Member of the Northern Ireland Assembly (MLA) for Belfast South (2007–2015), dead at 69.

Also a one-time Chairman of the Police Federation for Northern Ireland, having been a Royal Ulster Constabulary officer before entering politics.

unnamed.jpg.aea3a7ee4c65543b90ca6f400de7f005.jpg
 

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Stan Newens (wiki) dead at 91. Leftie Labour MP for Epping (1964–1970) then Harlow (1974–1983) and MEP for London Central (1984–1999).

Guardian obit.
Telegraph obit.

Some of his friends included:

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7 minutes ago, Ulitzer95 said:

Stan Newens (wiki) dead at 91. Leftie Labour MP for Epping (1964–1970) then Harlow (1974–1983) and MEP for London Central (1984–1999).

Guardian obit.
Telegraph obit.

erve-8wwkai5s6y.jpg.f03bde0872aeaeebc6e268117fe81435.jpg

 

One of the many MPs who lost in 1983 as a result of the Labour>SDP/Alliance vote shift in seats where the Tory vote stayed relatively similar to 79 and they won. Foot would have still lost for obvious reasons but the SDP split lost them seats like Harlow above, turning certain defeat into a landslide.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, msc said:

 

One of the many MPs who lost in 1983 as a result of the Labour>SDP/Alliance vote shift in seats where the Tory vote stayed relatively similar to 79 and they won. Foot would have still lost for obvious reasons but the SDP split lost them seats like Harlow above, turning certain defeat into a landslide.

 

 

Lost his epping seat to Tebbitt I believe 

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2 minutes ago, msc said:

 

One of the many MPs who lost in 1983 as a result of the Labour>SDP/Alliance vote shift in seats where the Tory vote stayed relatively similar to 79 and they won. Foot would have still lost for obvious reasons but the SDP split lost them seats like Harlow above, turning certain defeat into a landslide.

 

 


Indeed, though long gone are the days of Labour comfortably winning seats like Harlow. Alliance vote split maybe lost it for them but a change in demographics/voting behaviour amongst class has kept them out more recently.

In the whole of the East of England region, there are 52 Tory seats vs. 5 Labour (and 1 Lib Dem – St. Albans). The five which Labour are all inner city and/or high concentration of student populations/ethnic minorities – Cambridge, Bedford, Luton N, Luton S and Norwich S. 

Not trying to go off topic to a broader debate about today's politics but Harlow is the perfect case study example of their problem – working class folk who want fuck all to do with Labour. They simply don't appeal to a great chunk of ppl down here and that is a serious problem for them going forward. Winning a GE for them is trickier now without Scotland, so when the vote share is stacked up against them 2 to 1 in places like Harlow, it's bleak. Not convinced Sir Keir Brylcreem has the answers to this problem.

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3 minutes ago, Ulitzer95 said:


Indeed, though long gone are the days of Labour comfortably winning seats like Harlow. Alliance vote split maybe lost it for them but a change in demographics/voting behaviour amongst class has kept them out more recently.

In the whole of the East of England region, there are 52 Tory seats vs. 5 Labour (and 1 Lib Dem – St. Albans). The five which Labour are all inner city and/or high concentration of student populations/ethnic minorities – Cambridge, Bedford, Luton N, Luton S and Norwich S. 

Not trying to go off topic to a broader debate about today's politics but Harlow is the perfect case study example of their problem – working class folk who want fuck all to do with Labour. They simply don't appeal to a great chunk of ppl down here and that is a serious problem for them going forward. Winning a GE for them is trickier now without Scotland, so when the vote share is stacked up against them 2 to 1 in places like Harlow, it's bleak. Not convinced Sir Keir Brylcreem has the answers to this problem.

 

Indeed, though they did win it back during the Blair years (along with a host of entirely unlikely places!). My point was more Harlow was endangered in 83 but the split made it inevitable. You are right, East England is very Tory friendly now - 44 of those seats you mentioned are safe as houses. Of those that didn't change in 2017/19, Chloe Smith is fighting gravity long term and Colchester could be close next time round, but yeah, thats about it.

 

I don't think Scotland is irreversible gone for them either, but they wont do anything until they learn their lessons in defeat, and they still haven't done that up here after 10 election losses to the SNP in 14 years...

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6 minutes ago, msc said:

 

Indeed, though they did win it back during the Blair years (along with a host of entirely unlikely places!). My point was more Harlow was endangered in 83 but the split made it inevitable. You are right, East England is very Tory friendly now - 44 of those seats you mentioned are safe as houses. Of those that didn't change in 2017/19, Chloe Smith is fighting gravity long term and Colchester could be close next time round, but yeah, thats about it.

 

I don't think Scotland is irreversible gone for them either, but they wont do anything until they learn their lessons in defeat, and they still haven't done that up here after 10 election losses to the SNP in 14 years...


I know Chloe. I like her on a personal level but she's a Wet so not my cuppa politically. She had every intention of early retirement but then there was a snap election called in 2019 so she stayed. So I suspect she'll stand down before she loses her seat. The lack of incumbency will make it more likely to flip too I suppose.

Not sure I agree with you on Scotland. Very hard. Look at what happened to the Scottish Labour vote in 2019. It crumbled away even further to the Nats. Now what I do recognise is the Nats have likely exhausted their potential pool of voters now. They can't chip away at the Labour vote even further than they have done, but it's a long way back for Scottish Labour. It'll take at least another decade.

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