Thoughts On The 2017 List

[Sean 6,012]

Oh, Skellern was not famous enough for Deathlist.

Well if Errol Christie is.

[ebless 202]

My updated verdict for the 2017 list.

 

Almost certain: Billy Graham, Tony Booth, Gord Downie, King Michael of Romania, Nobby Stiles, Jill Gascoine, George Bush senior, Glen Campbell and Errol Christie.

 

In real danger but may make to 2018: Kirk Douglas, Peter Sallis, Duke of Edinburgh, Olivia De Haviland, Herman Wouk, Leslie Phillips, Ian St John, Bruce Forsyth, Hosni Mubarak, Desmond Tutu, Liz Dawn, John Noakes, Valerie Harper, Emperor Akhito, Leah Bracknell

 

Will they won't they?: Lord Carrington, Denis Norden, Pierre Cardin, Bob Dole, Jimmy Carter, Robert Mugabe, Javier Perez De Cueller, Jake Lamotta, Doug Ellis, Hugh Hefner, David Prowse, Sandy Gall, Pope Benedict, Fats Domino, Gay Byrne, Ian Brady, Vera Lynn

 

Little chance: Stan Lee, Betty White, Honor Blackman, Queen Elizabeth II, Jerry Lewis, Bob Barker

 

[Joey Russ 7,121]

I think we'll still break the record, but it certainly off to a slow start. I do think we'll get more than one hit in April though. It just feels that way.

 

Then again, 2015's 3rd hit wasn't until May, and it still reached 14 deaths... 

 

 

[Sir Creep 7,025]

On 1/2/2017 at 07:18, Sir Creep said:

I expect SOME level of educated guessing by the committee. Instead I get a list any 6th grader with 2 hours and the Internet could fashion together. Those are the low hanging fruit, Joseph. I know YOU will be impressed when a bunch of real elderly people die (95-104), but I won't. "Boy did you see THAT---a 101 year old just died! They PREDICTED that shit!" Just cut/paste when the time comes Joey.

 

SirC

Presently 1/3 of the 'hits'.  I won't look to see the glee and excitement from the hoi poloi, but I"m sure it was amok. 

SC

[Joey Russ 7,121]

24 minutes ago, Sir Creep said:

Presently 1/3 of the 'hits'.  I won't look to see the glee and excitement from the hoi poloi, but I"m sure it was amok. 

SC

We have a certain amount of picks that are hanging on right now. We'll get more than 9 for sure. And besides, I don't think MTM or Joost was part of your predicted batch, so your already wrong with who will die.  

[Toast 15,013]

I really don't get why anybody takes this personally.  The list has nothing to do with any of us.  We don't have any input into the selection process.

 

I am grateful to the committee for providing a platform in the shape of this forum for us to discuss other deadpools, invent our own, and generally witter on.

 

But there is no "we" in regard to the Deathlist.

 

[RadGuy 1,605]

So, we need 15 hits to get the record. 

Can we do it?

 

3 already dead of course, none of whom were dead-certs at the beginning of the year.

 

We have at least 4 dead-certs. Leah Bracknell, Gord Downie, Errol Christie all have cancer with a grim prognosis. There's also King Michael, who might have not that bad a cancer, but is nearly a centenarian and extremely frail. We should get all of them.

 

We have some people who aren't that old, but extremely frail from dementia/Alzheimer's and the sort. Tony Booth, Nobby Stiles, Jill Gascoine, Glen Campbell, John Noakes. It's always hard to predict the life expectancy of these people, but they're all (if I recall correctly) in the late stages of Alzheimer's - the can't dress themselves, no idea who or where they are, pants-shitting stages. We should get at least 2, and that's a conservative estimate.

 

Another category is people with cancer but it doesn't seem that grim. However, they're both pretty old. Gay Byrne and Ian St. John. We might get 1 of them.

 

Then there's just the frail oldies. Kirk Douglas, Vera Lynn (although she's not as frail as the rest), Billy Graham, Peter Sallis, George H. W. Bush, Pope Benedict, Bruce Forsyth, Desmond Tutu, Ian Brady. I think 4 is attainable.

 

That means we only need 1 more to reach the record. This will most likely be a rando, like Javier Perez de Cuellar or Herman Wouk. We should get at least 1 rando.

 

Bam! Record broken.

[Sean 6,012]

9 minutes ago, RadGuy said:

So, we need 15 hits to get the record. 

Can we do it?

 

3 already dead of course, none of whom were dead-certs at the beginning of the year.

 

We have at least 4 dead-certs. Leah Bracknell, Gord Downie, Errol Christie all have cancer with a grim prognosis. There's also King Michael, who might have not that bad a cancer, but is nearly a centenarian and extremely frail. We should get all of them.

 

We have some people who aren't that old, but extremely frail from dementia/Alzheimer's and the sort. Tony Booth, Nobby Stiles, Jill Gascoine, Glen Campbell, John Noakes. It's always hard to predict the life expectancy of these people, but they're all (if I recall correctly) in the late stages of Alzheimer's - the can't dress themselves, no idea who or where they are, pants-shitting stages. We should get at least 2, and that's a conservative estimate.

 

Another category is people with cancer but it doesn't seem that grim. However, they're both pretty old. Gay Byrne and Ian St. John. We might get 1 of them.

 

Then there's just the frail oldies. Kirk Douglas, Vera Lynn (although she's not as frail as the rest), Billy Graham, Peter Sallis, George H. W. Bush, Pope Benedict, Bruce Forsyth, Desmond Tutu, Ian Brady. I think 4 is attainable.

 

That means we only need 1 more to reach the record. This will most likely be a rando, like Javier Perez de Cuellar or Herman Wouk. We should get at least 1 rando.

 

Bam! Record broken.

We will get the record almost certainly.The only crap picks in my view are Emperor Akhito and David Prowse.

 

[RadGuy 1,605]

Just now, Shaun of the Dead said:

We will get the record almost certainly.The only crap picks in my view are Emperor Akhito and David Prowse.

 

Akihito ain't that bad, he's planning on abdicating late this year - which is basically unthinkable in Japan - so they might be expecting him to be dead already.

David Prowse, Queen Elizabeth, and Betty White are the only bad picks if you ask me.

 

Either way, we can't be too optimistic. 2009 and 2013 also were extremely good lists with a lot of dead-certs, but failed to get the record. And in January 2014, if you said that Sam Simon, Valerie Harper, and Wilko Johnson would all survive the year, you'd've been locked in a mental institution.

[drol 10,181]

1 hit for month plus Bracknell, Downie and Christie. DL will break the record this year, score 14 if it's really unlucky. But with the terminally ill still breathing I'd say it's not going so bad.

[msc 17,846]

Well, 3 particularly good years for deadpooling I can recall were 2009, 2012 and 2015. The Deathlist did pretty good in all, but started very slowly, with 3rd hits not happening till May, even.

 

 

[Zsa Zsa's leg 752]

I wouldn't count on all four of Downie, Bracknell, Michael, and Christie dying. In fact, I would say only King Michael and Downie are in real danger. 

[Sean 6,012]

1 minute ago, jackschlotter said:

I wouldn't count on all four of Downie, Bracknell, Michael, and Christie dying. In fact, I would say only King Michael and Downie are in real danger. 

I reckon they will all go this year.

[GossipGabe 333]

11 hours ago, jackschlotter said:

I wouldn't count on all four of Downie, Bracknell, Michael, and Christie dying. In fact, I would say only King Michael and Downie are in real danger. 

Real danger? Er... How does terminal (metastatic lung) cancer not equal real danger for you? (Yeah, Errol and Leah are still fairly young and one of them might perhaps survive the year, but there's no chance they'll see 2019, so they're in "real danger" anyways.)

[Sean 6,012]

11 hours ago, jackschlotter said:

I wouldn't count on all four of Downie, Bracknell, Michael, and Christie dying. In fact, I would say only King Michael and Downie are in real danger. 

 

Put it this way if I was told I had stage 4 lung cancer I wouldn`t bother renewing my credit cards or passport.

 

Median survival for stage 4 lung cancer is 8 months and only between 2 and 13% make the 5 year mark.Christie has had lung cancer over 2 years and Bracknell was diagnosed 7 months ago.

[Sean 6,012]

12 minutes ago, GossipGabe said:

Real danger? Er... How does terminal (metastatic lung) cancer not equal real danger for you? (Yeah, Errol and Leah are still fairly young and one of them might perhaps survive the year, but there's no chance they'll see 2019, so they're in "real danger" anyways.)

 

I don`t think being young helps particularly.Yes it can make you withstand more treatment but don`t the cells divide quicker if you are young?

[Zsa Zsa's leg 752]

4 hours ago, Shaun of the Dead said:

Put it this way if I was told I had stage 4 lung cancer I wouldn`t bother renewing my credit cards or passport.

 

Median survival for stage 4 lung cancer is 8 months and only between 2 and 13% make the 5 year mark.Christie has had lung cancer over 2 years and Bracknell was diagnosed 7 months ago.

Christie and Bracknell are already outliers. There has to be something successful about their treatments, especially if Bracknell can maintain composure of Loose Women. Of course they are in immediate danger but they certainly are not 100% dead certs for 2018. Leah looks like she'll make the end of the year and we never get updates on Errol. I wouldn't completely depend on them all making in to 2018 or all dying in 2017.

[GossipGabe 333]

4 hours ago, Shaun of the Dead said:

I don`t think being young helps particularly.Yes it can make you withstand more treatment but don`t the cells divide quicker if you are young?

Yes, a younger age has some disadvantages (quicker cell division), but the net effect usually means that a younger age is a favourable prognostic factor.

 

Errol has small-cell lung cancer:

Median survival for patients with ESCLC and LSCLC was 6.1 and 12.9 months, respectively, and was not significantly improved between patients diagnosed in 1992 and 2002. Improved survival was associated with female sex, age < 70 years, and receipt of surgery for patients with LSCLC

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1525730411001665

 

Dunno about Leah, but the same is true for non-small cell

In more advanced non-resectable disease, a younger age might be a feature of better prognosis although competing risks might have a higher impact on mortality in older patients. 

http://breathe.ersjournals.com/content/9/2/112

[msc 17,846]

Prognosis is not an exact science. Outliers exist as much due to the vagaries of human life and death as they do on anything anyone proactively does.

[Deadpool 163]

So... Apparently most of the people/users on this topic agree that some names are have a VERY HIGH probability (between 90%-100%) to go this year... this names are - Leah Bracknell - King Michael I of Romania - Glenn Campbell - Errol Christie - Peter Sallis - Gord Downie - Leslie Philips.......

 

but none of the above has died yet!!

[Sean 6,012]

1 hour ago, Deadpool said:

So... Apparently most of the people/users on this topic agree that some names are have a VERY HIGH probability (between 90%-100%) to go this year... this names are - Leah Bracknell - King Michael I of Romania - Glenn Campbell - Errol Christie - Peter Sallis - Gord Downie - Leslie Philips.......

 

but none of the above has died yet!!

I wouldnt give Campbell Sallis and Philips a 90% probability.Campbell has advanced dementia but he could go on for years potentially although that is unlikely.Sallis is very old but aside from macular degeneration we have no idea how is health is.He was always private so could just be enjoying a quiet retirement.Also being elderly with sight problems means he is unlikely to go out in public and be snapped by the press.My guess is that he is in Denville hall or Brinsworth house as he is extremely elderly widowed and has lost at least a substantial amount of sight.I am surprised he is still going but he isnt a dead cert by any means.Phillips likewise is very old but is known to be very frail after a stroke.Sure his quality of life iscompromised but he is not a dead cert.Bracknell Christie and Downie all have extremely lethal forms of cancer whereas King Michael has two types of cancer that have left him very frail according to reports.Treatment complications or the cancer itself could very well kill him as could the fact he is well in his 90s.

[Bibliogryphon 8,776]

I would add Honor Blackman and Betty White as poor picks.

[Bibliogryphon 8,776]

Have we hit a brick wall or are we going to have one of those months soon where we get 3 or 4 in a couple of weeks. Shame about Don Rickles. I think we need two hits before the end of May to make us feel that the record is in sight.

[msc 17,846]

On 12/05/2015 at 13:53, Bibliogryphon said:

Last year we didn't get the third hit until 15th June but overall it was an average year. We are five deaths behind the high water mark of 2008.

 

However like an episode of Tipping Point all those silver disks are on the brink of tumbling down.

 

On 13/05/2015 at 12:44, Bibliogryphon said:

 

It really has slowed down. I haven't had a hit on my work game since Richie Benaud and there are over 400 names at play in that.

 

On 16/05/2013 at 13:33, Bibliogryphon said:

I have plotted on a graph the hits against progress through the year.

 

Our third hit at the beginning of Feb took us ahead of the 2008 line but they crossed again in the middle of March. We are now falling behind dramatically. However if we make the sixth hit before 150 days (30 May) and eight hits before 200 days (19 July) then I still think there is the potential for a good year but it could be 2003 all over again when all fourteen deaths occurred before the end of September.

 

My thoughts? Don't panic, Biblio!

 

It sorts itself out over the year.

 

I concur with the bit in bold, though I have never seen Tipping Point...

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,225]

Loving the Tipping Point metaphor @Bibliogryphon