2018 DDP Salvage Lot

[CaptainChorizo 1,982]

Notice a thread for 2018 had not been posted yet.

 

 

This is a thread to post those who you dropped at the late minute for your 2018 team. Also is good documentation you are being truthy when you say "I nearly picked them" in another thread if your near hit dies during the year.

 

 

 

Here is my 21-40 people who just missed my DDP Team

Ted Mack -Think he is 90/95% % likely to die but don't see drop 40 as likely,so crapshoot either way to go with him or throw away 6 points in the bag
Charlotte Rae- 50/50 drop 40 shot and also a likely goner but older then Mack even
Ami Brown -Sods Law she is the Snuka of this year so congrats on those that went for her
Stefan Karl Steffanson- Hard to know if he goes this year or is another Daisy Berkowitz who hangs on another to 2019 or 2020
Jessica Falkholt-50/50 Gambit  Bobby Kristina 2.0 or Schumacher 2.0.
Sacheen Littlefeather
Devin Lima
Kamala
Liam Miller-Think he might be to 2018 what Greg Gilbert was to 2017
Clive James
Peter Lorimer
Rev Billy Graham
Morgan Tsvangirai
Simon Ricketts
Nobby Stiles
Mark. E Smith
Billy Joe Shaver-Just have a hunch this Outlaw Country star is dying
Bob Mugabe
Kathleen Blanco
Pete Frates

 

 

[machotrouts 828]

#1 Hits (a UK #1 hitmaker theme team)

 

Spoiler

(Last year's position is given in brackets, where applicable)

1. (new) Chas Smash (Madness)
2. (new) Nobby Stiles (England World Cup Squad '70)
3. (new) DJ Casper
4. (new) Olivia Newton-John
5. (4) Vera Lynn
6. (new) Chris Rea (Band Aid II)
7. (new) Harry Belafonte
8. (new) Aretha Franklin
9. (1) Ray Thomas (Moody Blues)
10. (19) Doris Day
11. (2) Terry Jacks
12. (new) Abi Ofarim
13. (new) Tony Baylis (Wurzels)
14. (new) Dave Edmunds
15. (re) Jane Morgan
16. (re) Charles Aznavour
17. (11) Sinéad O'Connor
18. (7) Billy Connolly
19. (new) Peter Kay
20. (new) Lil Wayne

 

SUBSTITUTES:

21. Willie Nelson (USA for Africa)
22. Gordon Banks (England World Cup Squad '70)
23. Shane MacGowan (Various Artists*)

 

24. Rolf Harris (#6 last year)
25. Martin Peters (England World Cup Squad '70)
26. Mike Peters (Ferry Aid)
27. Peter MacBeth (Foundations) (#8 last year)
28. Ricky Valance
29. Chris Farlowe
30. Vic Damone (#12 last year)
31. Tony Bennett
32. Ken Dodd (#17 last year)
33. Ernest Ranglin (Commonwealth Band)
34. Bill Wyman (Rolling Stones) (#9 last year)
35. Windsor Davies
36. Bruce Woodley (Seekers)

37. Gary Glitter
38. Julia Volkova (t.A.T.u.)
39. Dr John (Various Artists*)
40. Des O'Connor

 

(*i.e. the BBC Children in Need 'Perfect Day' cover)

 

 

Unpersons (a Big Brother theme team)

 

Spoiler

(Last year's position is given in brackets, where applicable)

1. (new) Linda Nolan

2. (2) Jackie Stallone

3. (3) Bruce Jones

4. (1) Marco Pierre White Jr

5. (5) Lionel Blair

6. (4) Julie Goodyear

7. (11) Big Ron Atkinson

8. (13) Ken Morley

9. (17) Gary Busey

10. (6) Lauren Harries

11. (8) Danniella Westbrook

12. (re) Alexander O'Neal

13. (re) Germaine Greer

14. (12) John McCririck

15. (re) Michael Barrymore

16. (new) Jackiey Budden

17. (new) Tina Malone

18. (new) James Cosmo

19. (new) Dennis Rodman

20. (new) Sarah Harding

 

SUBSTITUTES:

21. Kim Woodburn

22. Carol McGiffin

23. The Situation

 

24. Jeremy Jackson (#10 last year)
25. Stephen Bear
26. Scotty T
27. Tila Tequila (#18 last year)
28. Janice Dickinson (#7 last year)
29. Heidi Fleiss
30. Shahbaz Chauhdry
31. Kellie Maloney
32. Daniel Baldwin
33. Angie Bowie
34. Leo Sayer
35. David Parnaby
36. Kavana
37. Coolio
38. Lesley Brain
39. Bobby Davro
40. Rebekah Shelton

[gcreptile 10,970]

When I said that I don't go defence, I kicked out Greg Gilbert and Stefan Karl.

I also kicked out Angus Sinclair and Catherine Nevin - didn't want convicts anymore (find the error).

In spite of their calculated score I didn't pick Shameless fodder Jason Bragg and Bowelbabe.

Other names: Russell Brand's mum, Karen Lumley, Abigail Kawananakoa (sp?) - princess of Hawaii. Jose Jose is a sub, as are Pete Frates, Grant Goldman, Alan Jones, Robert Manne, and others.

 

Edit: Oh yeah, and I didn't pick Ami Brown. 

[ThePrematureBurial 224]

I'm not (knowingly) part of a team, but when I posted my shadow list I simply forgot    

Billy Graham

Javier Pérez de Cuéllar

George Shultz

Stephen Hawking

Vera Lynn

Sean Connery

Gene Hackman

Herman Wouk

Robert Mugabe

Stanley Donen

Neil Simon

Ennio Morricone

Big misses, if they pass away this year.

 

[msc 18,443]

Cutting Room Floor then

 

Peter Lorimer – We don’t actually know whats up with him, it could be a treatable brain tumour? Went 50/50 on him lasting the year.

Bill Heine/Vanessa Lafaye/Barry Dubois – Respectively 15 months to live on average, terminal but under control, and aggressive but not necessarily deadly quite yet. I’d assume all will be up for contention in 2019.

Fatima Ali – Ewing's Sarcoma is an immediate red flag, but I wasn’t sure of the obit criteria.

Latham Grant – He will die in 2018, but lack of BBC regional obits KO's him from attention.

Scott Riddle – Got a lot of coverage in summer for dying but reading between the lines it’s a 2-3 years thing, not months.

Ruth Strauss – Couldn’t find out how ill she was in the end.

Gerard Basset – Esophageal cancer, but what stage? I couldn’t find out, so left him to the side. Feels like a Spade Cooley unique type pick in previous years.

Joe Vento – too old

Hugh Masekela/Celeste Yarnall – too 50/50 and I went for Blanco and Jowell to be my 70 year old picks.

Ron Villemaire – Dying SF fans who want to see something are ten a penny, and will the press remember him when he goes?

Clive James –  Was on my shortlist for ages, but I just couldn’t fit him in. Think he is going in 2018 though.

Linda Nolan/Olivia Newton John/Val Kilmer – Never considered because I don’t think they are going to die anytime soon!

[Toast 16,140]

26 minutes ago, ThePrematureBurial said:

I'm not (knowingly) part of a team, but when I posted my shadow list I simply forgot   

 

 

'Team' means your entry in the Derby Dead Pool (DDP) which is what this thread refers to.

There's another thread for Shadow Lists which is for our own versions of the Death List.

http://www.derbydeadpool.co.uk/

 

While we're here, can I respectfully ask that you sort your signature out as it takes up a lot of room.  You can close up your picks into a paragraph rather than a column, or better still put them as a spoiler so people can click on it to see them.

 

[gcreptile 10,970]

Other names under consideration:

Mehdi Nemmouche - no prisoners!

Sal Turturici - The Ray Pfeifer of 2018? I wasn't sure of his uniqueness. And obitabilty, because he was just the 2nd most prominent 9/11 first responder

DJ Casper - looks too well

Nyssa Burrell - nah, Erica Garner was the one to watch in that department (Jessica Falkholt has a 50:50 chance - good enough for a theme team)

Almost picked David Cervinski for my main team because the Guardian covers Aussie Football.

Scotland's youngest MND patient - don't have the name right now

Another US football guy with ALS. Very common name - Steve Smith? Had main team potential.

 

 

[ThePrematureBurial 224]

3 minutes ago, Toast said:

 

'Team' means your entry in the Derby Dead Pool (DDP) which is what this thread refers to.

There's another thread for Shadow Lists which is for our own versions of the Death List.

http://www.derbydeadpool.co.uk/

 

While we're here, can I respectfully ask that you sort your signature out as it takes up a lot of room.  You can close up your picks into a paragraph rather than a column, or better still put them as a spoiler so people can click on it to see them.

 

Thank you. I have been trying to sort my signature for half an hour, but my text editor has ist own mind.

[Joey Russ 7,226]

Some thoughts on people that didn't make the final cut on either team:

Simon Ricketts - Think he'll live to 2019

Devin Lima - As will he. I did briefly consider him due to his rarer cancer, but I think he's young enough that he'll be around next year

Rose West - Think she's a fraud. And I'll admit, I did put likely fraudster Tim Curley on my B Team, but that doesn't change the fact that I don't trust either of them

Ami Brown - Also suspect she's a fraud as well, though it's more in the manner of exaggerating her condition rather than lying about being ill, as I suspect she's at least somewhat ill

Chris Betancourt - The could die in one years time FFBI pick but could get a transplant, and while due to his Puerto Rican decent he's less likely to be able to get a transplant, it's too much of a gamble for me to take, though considering on what other gambles I took, it might've turned out to be a better pick than some. 

Ian Toothill - Not sure he'll obit 6 months after his achievement, especially with no update since then. 

Nobby Stiles - Idiotically placed him on the sub benches in place of Linda Nolan

Hugh Masekela - Doing alright at the moment, though a turn for the worse wouldn't surprise me

Philomena Lynott, Lindy Remgino - People who are likely to die but not really the kind of pick I choose

Kevin Carr - All I've seen is a local QO mention, so I don't think he'll obit

Pete Frates - Was my first sub, but I think he might see 2019

And then some thoughts on some B Team individuals:

Hal Blaine - He was the person I only picked to try and save from the list of the lost. And with him reportedly not in the best health, he's not that bad of a pick

Johnny Clegg, Jose Jose - The squad of pancan individuals who are currently in remission, but it could strike back at any moment

Tim Curley- Already mentioned that I think he's a fraud

Oliver Dragojevic, Peter Lorimer, Nobuhiko Obayshi - Interesting names that I found, but are too old for main team glory

T Boone Pickens - Probably one of the closest names to me personally, and he's currently in failing health, so I couldn't resist the urge to pick him

Holly Rowe - ESPN journalist who cancer has spread, but I think she's doing well at the moment

Thuy Thanh Truong - If she dies and obits, I'm gonna regret not picking her for my main team, especially since gcreptile picked her

Billy Wright Jr - The cancer tests aren't gonna be revealed till January guy to see if he's good or fucked

 

 

[Joey Russ 7,226]

I also new about Tiffany Youngs, but from what I read on her, she's currently doing great at the moment, so I think she's a 50/50 chance.

[Death Impends 7,974]

Sophie Sabbage: Want to minimize FFBIs and the famous father isn't enough to sway, might linger on Granger-esque another year or two with the good news in recent months. Dropped several other FFBIs from the final 40 or so but can't be bothered to remember names
Fernando Ricksen: Heavily considered him but think he's moreso one for 2019 going by Joost's timeframe. His age at diagnosis was younger than Joost at diagnosis too, which may help him

Valerie Harper, Clive James: Limiting myself to one "Drop 40 cert gut feeling" pick... last year's Nobby Stiles articles give me a similar feeling to the Tony Booth ones that convinced me to pick him, or ones on Bobby Vee in the months before his death

Vanessa Goodwin: I think resigning hindered her obit chances

Kevin "Chalky" Carr: Good example of NZ vs Aussie in obitability. If it was an Australian sports figure with terminal cancer fundraising for a girl who lost her mum to the same disease the Mail would be right on it. Here... nothing from the UK but a local Beeb page. Working for the All Blacks might sneak something but I ultimately decided against it

Devin Lima: Sees 2019 IMO - though rarity of illness makes him a better pick than Gilbert/Ricketts were this time last year

Ami Brown: Went from a lock to dropped like a hot potato once the skepticism started

Simon Ricketts: Plans of getting all the current tumors operated out, it's delaying the inevitable rather than curative but sounding more and more a 2019 fatality

Thuy Thanh Truong: Of course this was Kobayashi 2018 - young Asian woman with cancer who got a BBC profile in the past. I wish I said to gcreptile "do they have a same initialed name?" before the new year, or something. But I also have the feeling she may last another year

Kim Taylforth: Sister of Gillian and actress in her own right, not doing the best with skin cancer but not sure if fatal

Colin Butts: Disregarded him for 2017 as a "he'll die, but not sure if he obits". This year it's "he'll obit, but not sure if he dies"

Last minute gambles like Falkholt/that one jockey who fell off her horse (I would've picked Garner had she lived, however)

 

Didn't come close to considering Nolan or ONJ. The latter only made the B team because reading Bobby Darin's Wiki reminded me he was once married to Sandra Dee... look at me I'm Sandra Dee... Grease... ONJ, yeah. Conductor Christoph von Dohnanyi was a last-minute cut from the B team. I also entertained putting Morton Sobell and Francoise Gilot (the closest things I have to June Forays at this point) on the B team. Made the subs instead. (had Bob Givens lived, he would've likely been on there. would've been a great successor of sorts to Foray)

[gcreptile 10,970]

Christoph von Dohnanyi :).

 

Replaced him a week ago. 

[Death Impends 7,974]

He felt like someone you would've considered too after the Boulez hit. Yes... it was a great way to add a touch of class to the B team. But there were too many better picks, and he was just old and frail rather than terminal.

Edited January 1, 2018 by Death Impends

[msc 18,443]

6 minutes ago, Death Impends said:

 

Kevin "Chalky" Carr: Good example of NZ vs Aussie in obitability. If it was an Australian sports figure with terminal cancer fundraising for a girl who lost her mum to the same disease the Mail would be right on it. Here... nothing from the UK but a local Beeb page. Working for the All Blacks might sneak something but I ultimately decided against it

 

 

Yeah, he was a lock on my main team for a month, then I luckily went to double check it and found what I thought had been a BBC Sport page was actually a BBC local page. D'oh.

[Death Impends 7,974]

Thought you were alluding to him with that one post. RadGuy made an allusion as well that I'm 99% sure was to him.

[Joey Russ 7,226]

That was who I suspected as well. There's another guy with low obit chances that I thought RadGuy might've been alluding to, but I'm not gonna name them cause I might choose them in another pool for another year. 

[msc 18,443]

Yeah, I'm pretty sure I did. I was well fucked off at that one at the time. But, hey, so it goes!

[drol 11,945]

Oliver Dragojevic: On December the 29th his cancer was apparently in remission.

Ami Brown: Fraud

Catherine Nevin: Fraud, but made it to my b-team.

Rose West: Fraud.

Ian Toothill: Not sure about obits.

Vittorio Cecchi Gori: Seems to be recovering well.

[RadGuy 1,614]

Substitutes:

Johnny Clegg: Proud that I discovered a cult pick on my own, even if he was later revealed. But I realized that it wasn't worth picking him yet. Still touring, plus his pancan is only stage II and in remission. Could last a while yet.

Bernard Tapie: Old, might not make Drop 40, but mostly dropped him because he's going on trial for embezzlement. Coincidence he's a poor little sick man now, eh?

Bart Starr: All deadpoolers have a field of interest that helps them pick names others might not think of. Obviously people know about Bart Starr, but I had the opportunity to see him at halftime at a Packers game in October. Looked at deaths door. But I then realized that if he was well enough to travel to Lambeau, he might not be in such bad shape. Plus, he's old - and I have enough oldies on my team - and he won't make the Drop 40.

 

Other last dozen or so names dropped:

Ann-Katrin Berger: Would be a points-a-palooza aged just 27, but no info on how severe her thyroid cancer is or how her December surgery went.

Ami Brown: No room for a likely fraud. Risky obit as well - "Alaskan Bush People" isn't exactly the glamorous type of reality show that the Daily Mail would cover.

Matt Cappotelli/Linda Nolan: Gut feeling they'll make 2019.

Kevin Carr: Dead cert, won't obit.

Pete Frates: It was him vs. Ricksen, went with Ricksen in the end because Frates is much less likely to make the Drop 40.

Denis Goldberg: One of my deadpool pet peeves is people who only very educated people, or people interested in a certain field know about, who get Guardian articles about their careers for snobby Guardian readers to read, that just happen to mention a battle with cancer as a 'side issue'. These people always give me a Valerie Harper-ish vibe in terms of life expectancy. Boo-hoo, I have terminal cancer (but I'll make it to 2045).

Clive James: Similarly gives me a Goldberg/Harper vibe.

Nanci Ryder: Diagnosed in 2014, has a year or two left imho.

Mark E. Smith: I'd hate to miss out on this year's John Wetton, but I'd hate even more to waste a space on a punt pick.

Morgan Tsvangirai: Too rumor/speculation-based for my liking.

 

Random names dropped early:

Pat Bowlen: Wanted a designated NFL pick, chose Starr over Bowlen (since Alzheimer's is tricky), but ended up dropping Starr in the end anyway.

Jill Gascoine: Won't make the Drop 40, but Stiles will.

Olivia Newton-John: This year's Shannen Doherty, imho.

Daniel Arap Moi/Girma Wolde Giorgis: The "ailing leader of a banana republic" pick was Efrain Rios Montt.

Franco Zeffirelli: The "elderly corpse lookalike" pick was Dilip Kumar.

[DevonDeathTrip 2,358]

Ami Brown -  Untrustworthy 

Morgan Tsvangirai - Ill, but not ill enough 

Ken Whelan (Jockey) - obit concerns, one of the last to be axed. 

Hector Timerman - I knew GCReptile would pick him and he wouldn't be a unique pick. 

Abū Bakr al-Baghdadi - Fed up with waiting around on him, time to move on   

Clive James - As above 

Devin Lima - I think he's got a reasonable chance of seeing 2019

Jo Dee Messina - Really agonised over this one. I have a hunch she's gravely ill, but gut instinct lost out to empirical research this time around. Will be the miss I regret most. 

Kim Kyon Hi - North Korean news isn't exactly reliable, she could be already dead for all I know.

[Spade_Cooley 9,525]

SPOILERS: Surprised by the lack of teams plumping for Ben Dover in this year's DDP, although, as I've not had my finger in the research this Xmas, maybe he's not as ill as I assumed.

[Heef 166]

Was tempted by Nathan Haines and Mike Moore, though Moore hasn't seemingly deteriorated and it sounds like Haines' prognosis has improved somewhat. 

[gcreptile 10,970]

On 1.1.2018 at 14:49, Joey Russ said:

Chris Betancourt - The could die in one years time FFBI pick but could get a transplant, and while due to his Puerto Rican decent he's less likely to be able to get a transplant, it's too much of a gamble for me to take, though considering on what other gambles I took, it might've turned out to be a better pick than some. 

Chris Betancourt is now talking to Peter Jackson after never having watched the Lord of the Rings movies:

http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/news/peter-jackson-sends-message-to-terminally-ill-lord-of-the-rings-fan-a8180846.html

 

Apparently, the Independent is unable to spell his name right and calls him "Bentacourt" and "Belancourt".

[Sir Creep 7,070]

I mean we all start with pages of names, then a page or two, then a list of 30 we pare down to 20.  For me, it's that final paring down that = salvage lot.
I chopped the following at the end basically cuz they were 8-point plays, and that won't win anything in DDP:
Pres George Bush Sr.

John McCain
Bart Starr
Jerry Remy
Cardinal Roger Etchegaray

Tessa Jowell and Reggie White, Jr. (already seeing that would have been a horrible pick, phew!) were  10+ points I chopped at the end.

Others included: Peter Lorimer, Bobby Zarin, Willie Nelson, Joe Vento, David Berkowitz, Jim Kelly, Al Attles, Johnny Ruffo, Sen. Mazie Hirono, Carol McGiffin, Rick Davies, Taylor Dockins, David O. Belcher, Glenn C. Stewart, Jack Van Impe, Rev Ernest Angley, Marilyn Bell, and Richard Overton.  They got cut cuz weren't worth many points, probably live through the year, or obit problems, in that order.
I know my last couple that made my team were Ami Brown / Noel Conway / Kulsoom Nawaz (Sharif), and I had Tessa Jowell as my first alternate.  I just remain unconvinced she will die 2018, but in hindsight I should have played her over one of those other three. 
SC

[FixedBusiness 407]

So... the only name I remember dropping was Bobby Zarin. People like Rayya Elias and Simon Ricketts just never crossed my mind writing my teams