MrWonderful 481 Posted October 9, 2020 17 hours ago, Joey Russ said: The polls weren’t that off actually. The polls were spot on for the popular vote and while Michigan and Pennsylvania averages said Clinton would win, they were within the margin of error. Only Wisconsin was really significantly off in the polls. Yes, this is all accurate. Wisconsin was the outlier; Trump actually canceled campaign events there in the run-up to the election, as his own people didn't believe it to be in play. The polling looks fantastic for Biden, given how close we are to the election. Even if there's a margin of 2 points towards Trump that they aren't accounting for -- and supposedly FiveThirtyEight's model made changes this time around -- the fact remains that Biden is still up by about 7-8 points in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. If he just wins those 3, it's over. So Trump has to at least win one of those, plus defend several states where he's either down or it's a virtual dead heat. For example, if Trump loses Florida, it's over. If he loses Ohio (probably slightly more likely than Florida for Trump), it's over. We're 25 days away and Biden has almost a 10-point national lead. Unless there is an absolute bombshell coming, Biden is in a fantastic position, even with the Republicans doing everything they can to suppress the vote. Even if they get Amy Coney Barrett confirmed, is the Supreme Court really going to invalidate all mail-in/absentee voting? That's pretty much what it's going to take, and at that point the United States is no longer a constitutional republic. We just go straight to dictatorship. And at that point, I might have to stand on guard for thee! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gcreptile 10,979 Posted October 9, 2020 I like that our forum poll is relatively close to the actual polls. Right now we have: Biden - 50% Trump - 43,6% Neither - 6,4% Now, if some of those "None of the above" would switch to Biden, we'd be in almost perfect agreement. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TQR 14,411 Posted October 9, 2020 Yeah, I think a few people have misunderstood the poll as an opinion poll, rather than a prediction. If it was an opinion poll though, ‘none of the above’ would be fucking off with the win. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Grim Up North 3,727 Posted October 9, 2020 17 minutes ago, The Quim Reaper said: Yeah, I think a few people have misunderstood the poll as an opinion poll, rather than a prediction. If it was an opinion poll though, ‘none of the above’ would be fucking off with the win. Trump stands for 'America and Americans can do and say what the fuck we like because we're Americans and our opinion is right and all that matters'. Unfortunately my experience of working with Americans is that there is a significant proportion of Americans who do actually think that way. Not a majority by any means, but it's more than the odd exception. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joey Russ 7,232 Posted October 9, 2020 2 hours ago, The Quim Reaper said: Yeah, I think a few people have misunderstood the poll as an opinion poll, rather than a prediction. If it was an opinion poll though, ‘none of the above’ would be fucking off with the win. I originally voted none of the above because it was too early to tell who was going to actually win when the poll first came out. It’s still there now because I can’t be arsed to change it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joey Russ 7,232 Posted October 9, 2020 Damn, Hillary Clinton better drop out of the race now: Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TQR 14,411 Posted October 15, 2020 I’ve got to hand it to Biden, he’s absolutely got the measure of Drumpf. I wish Keir Starmer would occasionally drop his reserved approach and put Johnson down like this. 2 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Great Cornholio 902 Posted October 15, 2020 4 hours ago, The Quim Reaper said: I’ve got to hand it to Biden, he’s absolutely got the measure of Drumpf. I wish Keir Starmer would occasionally drop his reserved approach and put Johnson down like this. Wait, Trump caused COVID? Are we sure Joe isn't off on a trance again? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TQR 14,411 Posted October 16, 2020 22 minutes ago, Kenny McCormick said: Wait, Trump caused COVID? Are we sure Joe isn't off on a trance again? No, that’s a characteristically poor analysis. Trump handled Covid about as shockingly as it’s humanly possible to conceive, which caused a deep recession. S. Korea, New Zealand and the like, with leaders that are not nonchalant, pig-headed cranks brimmed with faux bravado, locked down straight away, opened back up early and they haven’t suffered so much. South Korea’s economy contracted by about 2.5% iirc, whereas the UK’s was by about a quarter and the US a third. And prior to the pandemic, the economy under Trump was similarly stable to the one he inherited from Obama, and he created fewer jobs than his predecessor. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Grim Up North 3,727 Posted October 20, 2020 Just seen a photo of Joe Biden in a mask and realised that he has a good chance of becoming US President (arguably the most powerful man on the planet) simply by a) Not being Donald Trump b) Wearing a mask It's not a high bar is it? 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
torbrexbones 717 Posted October 20, 2020 2 hours ago, Grim Up North said: Just seen a photo of Joe Biden in a mask and realised that he has a good chance of becoming US President (arguably the most powerful man on the planet) simply by a) Not being Donald Trump b) Wearing a mask It's not a high bar is it? I would add c) say as little as possible during the debate tonight and don't raise his voice at all. Trump will rant about everything as usual and that should clinch it for Biden. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joey Russ 7,232 Posted October 25, 2020 Apparently this poll just came out in Texas: 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joey Russ 7,232 Posted October 25, 2020 Well, for those of you predicting that the polls will indeed tighten, here you go: Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Old Crem 3,610 Posted October 26, 2020 Anyway even if Biden wins he won't risk enlarging the court so Trump's legacy will be even bigger than Bush. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Grim Up North 3,727 Posted October 26, 2020 Who is this Joe Biden you speak of? Talk about lack of confidence in your own ability to fuck it up - where is he? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
msc 18,489 Posted October 26, 2020 19 minutes ago, Grim Up North said: Who is this Joe Biden you speak of? Talk about lack of confidence in your own ability to fuck it up - where is he? Going to Georgia for an event there, followed by Texas, apparently. Weirdly despite the whole pandemic thing going on, he's still been far more visible than Hilary was at times during her non-campaigning. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TQR 14,411 Posted October 26, 2020 It’s almost as if hundreds of thousands of dead Americans is newsworthy. How inconvenient. They should consider his feelings more. Aww. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Old Crem 3,610 Posted October 26, 2020 Nothing makes me think Trump is not going to win. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TQR 14,411 Posted October 26, 2020 17 minutes ago, The Old Crem said: Nothing makes me think Trump is not going to win. It’s a legitimate personal prediction to say you think Trump will win, but to say nothing makes you think he won’t suggests you really haven’t been paying attention. 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joey Russ 7,232 Posted October 26, 2020 43 minutes ago, The Quim Reaper said: It’s a legitimate personal prediction to say you think Trump will win, but to say nothing makes you think he won’t suggests you really haven’t been paying attention. Don’t worry, look at his predictions of nuclear war and 20 million dead of COVID by February to get a sense of how good he is at predicting these types of things... 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TQR 14,411 Posted October 26, 2020 21 minutes ago, Joey Russ said: Don’t worry, look at his predictions of nuclear war and 20 million dead of COVID by February to get a sense of how good he is at predicting these types of things... Oh that was him? Oh dear...all these faceless cranks on here are blending into one nowadays. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Great Cornholio 902 Posted October 26, 2020 Trump Still has a good chance of winning. He did well in the last debate, Biden completely lost control. I certainly wouldn't go as far as to say that Trump is definitely going to win but that wouldn't be an outrageous thought. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TQR 14,411 Posted October 26, 2020 It’s also worth pointing out that, while Trump and his supporters have jumped on Biden for saying George, if we want to get all petty because someone was misnamed, Trump called Matt Gaetz “Rick Gates” multiple times on the same day. Chris Wallace became “Mike”, as did John Bolton, as did Luke Messer, as did Nick Goepper. Kevin McCarthy became “Steve”, Paul Ryan became “Rick”, Chuck Canterbury became “Ken”, Tim Cook became “Tim Apple“ and Marillyn Hewson became “Marillyn Lockheed”. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
