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Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?  

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17 hours ago, Joey Russ said:

The polls weren’t that off actually. The polls were spot on for the popular vote and while Michigan and Pennsylvania averages said Clinton would win, they were within the margin of error. Only Wisconsin was really significantly off in the polls. 

Yes, this is all accurate.  Wisconsin was the outlier; Trump actually canceled campaign events there in the run-up to the election, as his own people didn't believe it to be in play.  

 

The polling looks fantastic for Biden, given how close we are to the election.  Even if there's a margin of 2 points towards Trump that they aren't accounting for -- and supposedly FiveThirtyEight's model made changes this time around --  the fact remains that Biden is still up by about 7-8 points in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.  If he just wins those 3, it's over.  So Trump has to at least win one of those, plus defend several states where he's either down or it's a virtual dead heat.  For example, if Trump loses Florida, it's over.  If he loses Ohio (probably slightly more likely than Florida for Trump), it's over.   We're 25 days away and Biden has almost a 10-point national lead.  Unless there is an absolute bombshell coming, Biden is in a fantastic position, even with the Republicans doing everything they can to suppress the vote.  Even if they get Amy Coney Barrett confirmed, is the Supreme Court really going to invalidate all mail-in/absentee voting?  That's pretty much what it's going to take, and at that point the United States is no longer a constitutional republic.  We just go straight to dictatorship.  And at that point, I might have to stand on guard for thee!  :P

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I like that our forum poll is relatively close to the actual polls.

Right now we have:

Biden - 50%

Trump - 43,6%

Neither - 6,4%

 

Now, if some of those "None of the above" would switch to Biden, we'd be in almost perfect agreement.

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Yeah, I think a few people have misunderstood the poll as an opinion poll, rather than a prediction.

 

If it was an opinion poll though, ‘none of the above’ would be fucking off with the win.

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17 minutes ago, The Quim Reaper said:

Yeah, I think a few people have misunderstood the poll as an opinion poll, rather than a prediction.

 

If it was an opinion poll though, ‘none of the above’ would be fucking off with the win.

 

Trump stands for 'America and Americans can do and say what the fuck we like because we're Americans and our opinion is right and all that matters'. 

 

Unfortunately my experience of working with Americans is that there is a significant proportion of Americans who do actually think that way. Not a majority by any means, but it's more than the odd exception.

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2 hours ago, The Quim Reaper said:

Yeah, I think a few people have misunderstood the poll as an opinion poll, rather than a prediction.

 

If it was an opinion poll though, ‘none of the above’ would be fucking off with the win.

I originally voted none of the above because it was too early to tell who was going to actually win when the poll first came out. It’s still there now because I can’t be arsed to change it. :P 

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Damn, Hillary Clinton better drop out of the race now: 

 

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I’ve got to hand it to Biden, he’s absolutely got the measure of Drumpf. I wish Keir Starmer would occasionally drop his reserved approach and put Johnson down like this.

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4 hours ago, The Quim Reaper said:

 

I’ve got to hand it to Biden, he’s absolutely got the measure of Drumpf. I wish Keir Starmer would occasionally drop his reserved approach and put Johnson down like this.

Wait, Trump caused COVID? Are we sure Joe isn't off on a trance again?

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22 minutes ago, Kenny McCormick said:

Wait, Trump caused COVID? Are we sure Joe isn't off on a trance again?


No, that’s a characteristically poor analysis. Trump handled Covid about as shockingly as it’s humanly possible to conceive, which caused a deep recession. S. Korea, New Zealand and the like, with leaders that are not nonchalant, pig-headed cranks brimmed with faux bravado, locked down straight away, opened back up early and they haven’t suffered so much. South Korea’s economy contracted by about 2.5% iirc, whereas the UK’s was by about a quarter and the US a third.

 

And prior to the pandemic, the economy under Trump was similarly stable to the one he inherited from Obama, and he created fewer jobs than his predecessor.

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Just seen a photo of Joe Biden in a mask and realised that he has a good chance of becoming US President (arguably the most powerful man on the planet) simply by

 

a) Not being Donald Trump

b) Wearing a mask

 

It's not a high bar is it?

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2 hours ago, Grim Up North said:

Just seen a photo of Joe Biden in a mask and realised that he has a good chance of becoming US President (arguably the most powerful man on the planet) simply by

 

a) Not being Donald Trump

b) Wearing a mask

 

It's not a high bar is it?

I would add c) say as little as possible during the debate tonight and don't raise his voice at all.

 

Trump will rant about everything as usual and that should clinch it for Biden.

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Apparently this poll just came out in Texas: 

 

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